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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs

Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL AND NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Grant No. DE-FG36-02GO12114 from the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

COMMITTEE ON ALTERNATIVES AND STRATEGIES FOR FUTURE HYDROGEN PRODUCTION AND USE

MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE,1Chair,

ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey

RAKESH AGRAWAL, NAE,

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., Allentown, Pennsylvania

DAVID L. BODDE,

University of Missouri, Kansas City

ROBERT EPPERLY, Consultant,

Mountain View, California

ANTONIA V. HERZOG,

Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C.

ROBERT L. HIRSCH,

Science Applications International Corporation, Alexandria, Virginia

MUJID S. KAZIMI,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

ALEXANDER MACLACHLAN, NAE,

E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (retired), Wilmington, Delaware

GENE NEMANICH, Independent Consultant,

Sugar Land, Texas

WILLIAM F. POWERS, NAE,

Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan

MAXINE L. SAVITZ, NAE, Consultant (retired, Honeywell),

Los Angeles, California

WALTER W. (CHIP) SCHROEDER,

Proton Energy Systems, Inc., Wallingford, Connecticut

ROBERT H. SOCOLOW,

Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

DANIEL SPERLING,

University of California, Davis

ALFRED M. SPORMANN,

Stanford University, Stanford, California

JAMES L. SWEENEY,

Stanford University, Stanford, California

Project Staff

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES)

MARTIN OFFUTT, Study Director

ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer

JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, BEES

PANOLA GOLSON, Senior Project Assistant

NAE Program Office

JACK FRITZ, Senior Program Officer

Consultants

Dale Simbeck,

SFA Pacific, Inc.

Elaine Chang,

SFA Pacific, Inc.

1  

NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, NAE,1Chair,

MPR Associates, Alexandria, Virginia

ROBERT W. FRI, Vice Chair,

Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

ALLEN J. BARD, NAS,2

University of Texas, Austin

DAVID L. BODDE,

University of Missouri, Kansas City

PHILIP R. CLARK, NAE,

GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Boonton, New Jersey

CHARLES GOODMAN,

Southern Company Services, Birmingham, Alabama

DAVID G. HAWKINS,

Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C.

MARTHA A. KREBS,

California Nanosystems Institute (retired), Los Angeles, California

GERALD L. KULCINSKI, NAE,

University of Wisconsin, Madison

JAMES J. MARKOWSKY, NAE,

American Electric Power (retired), North Falmouth, Massachusetts

DAVID K. OWENS,

Edison Electric Institute, Washington, D.C.

WILLIAM F. POWERS, NAE,

Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan

EDWARD S. RUBIN,

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

MAXINE L. SAVITZ, NAE,

Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California

PHILIP R. SHARP,

Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

ROBERT W. SHAW, JR.,

Aretê Corporation, Center Harbor, New Hampshire

SCOTT W. TINKER,

University of Texas, Austin

JOHN J. WISE, NAE,

Mobil Research and Development Company (retired), Princeton, New Jersey

Staff

JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director

ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer

MARTIN OFFUTT, Program Officer

DANA CAINES, Financial Associate

PANOLA GOLSON, Project Assistant

1  

NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering.

2  

NAS = member, National Academy of Sciences.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

Acknowledgments

The Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use wishes to acknowledge and thank the many individuals who contributed significantly of their time and effort to this National Academies’ National Research Council (NRC) study, which was done jointly with the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) Program Office. The presentations at committee meetings provided valuable information and insight on advanced technologies and development initiatives that assisted the committee in formulating the recommendations included in this report.

The committee expresses its thanks to the following individuals who briefed the committee: Alex Bell (University of California, Berkeley); Larry Burns (General Motors); John Cassidy (UTC, Inc.); Steve Chalk (U.S. Department of Energy [DOE]); Elaine Chang (SFA Pacific); Roxanne Danz (DOE); Pete Devlin (DOE); Jon Ebacher (GE Power Systems); Charles Forsberg (Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL]); David Friedman (Union of Concerned Scientists); David Garman (DOE); David Gray (Mitretek); Cathy Gregoire-Padro (National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL]); Dave Henderson (DOE); Gardiner Hill (BP); Bill Innes (ExxonMobil Research and Engineering); Scott Jorgensen (General Motors); Nathan Lewis (California Institute of Technology); Margaret Mann (NREL); Lowell Miller (DOE); JoAnn Milliken (DOE); Joan Ogden (Princeton University); Lynn Orr, Jr. (Stanford University); Ralph Overend (NREL); Mark Pastor (DOE); David Pimentel (Cornell University); Dan Reicher (Northern Power Systems and New Energy Capital); Neal Richter (ChevronTexaco); Jens Rostrup-Nielsen (Haldor Topsoe); Dale Simbeck (SFA Pacific); and Joseph Strakey (DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory).

The committee offers special thanks to Steve Chalk, DOE Office of Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies, and to Roxanne Danz, DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, for being responsive to its needs for information. In addition, the committee wishes to acknowledge Dale Simbeck and Elaine Chang, both of SFA Pacific, Inc., for providing support as consultants to the committee.

Finally, the chair gratefully recognizes the committee members and the staffs of the NRC’s Board on Energy and Environmental Systems and the NAE Program Office for their hard work in organizing and planning committee meetings and their individual efforts in gathering information and writing sections of the report.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confi-

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

dential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Allen Bard (NAS), University of Texas, Austin;

Seymour Baron (NAE), retired, Medical University of South Carolina;

Douglas Chapin (NAE), MPR Associates, Inc.;

James Corman, Energy Alternative Systems;

Francis J. DiSalvo (NAS), Cornell University;

Mildred Dresselhaus (NAE, NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology;

Seth Dunn, Yale School of Management, and School of Forestry & Environmental Studies;

David Friedman, Union of Concerned Scientists;

Robert Friedman, The Center for the Advancement of Genomics;

Robert D. Hall, CDG Management, Inc.;

James G. Hansel, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.;

H.M. (Hub) Hubbard, retired, Pacific International Center for High Technology Research;

Trevor Jones (NAE), Biomec;

James R. Katzer (NAE), ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company;

Alan Lloyd, California Air Resources Board;

John P. Longwell (NAE), retired, Massachusetts Institute of Technology;

Alden Meyer, Union of Concerned Scientists;

Robert W. Shaw, Jr., Aretê Corporation; and

Richard S. Stein, (NAS, NAE) retired, University of Massachusetts.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William G. Agnew (NAE), General Motors Corporation (retired). Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

Contents

 

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 

1

1

 

INTRODUCTION

 

8

   

 Origin of the Study,

 

8

   

 Department of Energy Offices Involved in Work on Hydrogen,

 

8

   

 Scope, Organization, and Focus of This Report,

 

9

2

 

A FRAMEWORK FOR THINKING ABOUT THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

 

11

   

 Overview of National Energy Supply and Use,

 

11

   

 Energy Transitions,

 

11

   

 Motivation and Policy Context: Public Benefits of a Hydrogen Energy System,

 

14

   

 Scope of the Transition to a Hydrogen Energy System,

 

16

   

 Competitive Challenges,

 

17

   

 Energy Use in the Transportation Sector,

 

22

   

 Four Pivotal Questions,

 

23

3

 

THE DEMAND SIDE: HYDROGEN END-USE TECHNOLOGIES

 

25

   

 Transportation,

 

25

   

 Stationary Power: Utilities and Residential Uses,

 

30

   

 Industrial Sector,

 

34

   

 Summary of Research, Development, and Demonstration Challenges for Fuel Cells,

 

34

   

 Findings and Recommendations,

 

35

4

 

TRANSPORTATION, DISTRIBUTION, AND STORAGE OF HYDROGEN

 

37

   

 Introduction,

 

37

   

 Molecular Hydrogen as Fuel,

 

38

   

 The Department of Energy’s Hydrogen Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan,

 

43

   

 Findings and Recommendations,

 

43

5

 

SUPPLY CHAINS FOR HYDROGEN AND ESTIMATED COSTS OF HYDROGEN SUPPLY

 

45

   

 Hydrogen Production Pathways,

 

45

   

 Consideration of Hydrogen Program Goals,

 

46

   

 Cost Estimation Methods,

 

48

   

 Unit Cost Estimates: Current and Possible Future Technologies,

 

49

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
   

 Comparisons of Current and Future Technology Costs,

 

54

   

 Unit Atmospheric Carbon Releases: Current and Possible Future Technologies,

 

58

   

 Well-to-Wheels Energy-Use Estimates,

 

60

   

 Findings,

 

60

6

 

IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO HYDROGEN IN VEHICLES FOR THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM

 

64

   

 Hydrogen for Light-Duty Passenger Cars and Trucks: A Vision of the Penetration of Hydrogen Technologies,

 

65

   

 Carbon Dioxide Emissions as Estimated in the Committee’s Vision,

 

69

   

 Some Energy Security Impacts of the Committee’s Vision,

 

73

   

 Other Domestic Resource Impacts Based on the Committee’s Vision,

 

75

   

 Impacts of the Committee’s Vision for Total Fuel Costs for Light-Duty Vehicles,

 

79

   

 Summary,

 

81

   

 Findings,

 

83

7

 

CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

 

84

   

 The Rationale of Carbon Capture and Storage from Hydrogen Production,

 

84

   

 Findings and Recommendations,

 

90

8

 

HYDROGEN PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES

 

91

   

 Hydrogen from Natural Gas,

 

91

   

 Hydrogen from Coal,

 

93

   

 Hydrogen from Nuclear Energy,

 

94

   

 Hydrogen from Electrolysis,

 

97

   

 Hydrogen Produced from Wind Energy,

 

99

   

 Hydrogen Production from Biomass and by Photobiological Processes,

 

101

   

 Hydrogen from Solar Energy,

 

103

9

 

CROSSCUTTING ISSUES

 

106

   

 Program Management and Systems Analysis,

 

106

   

 Hydrogen Safety,

 

108

   

 Exploratory Research,

 

110

   

 International Partnerships,

 

112

   

 Study of Environmental Impacts,

 

113

   

 Department of Energy Program,

 

114

10

 

MAJOR MESSAGES OF THIS REPORT

 

116

   

 Basic Conclusions,

 

116

   

 Major Recommendations,

 

118

 

 

REFERENCES

 

123

 

 

APPENDIXES

 

 

   

A  Biographies of Committee Members

 

129

   

B  Letter Report

 

133

   

C  DOE Hydrogen Program Budget

 

137

   

D  Presentations and Committee Meetings

 

139

   

E  Spreadsheet Data from Hydrogen Supply Chain Cost Analyses

 

141

   

F  U.S. Energy Systems

 

194

   

G  Hydrogen Production Technologies: Additional Discussion

 

198

   

H  Useful Conversions and Thermodynamic Properties

 

240

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

Tables and Figures

TABLES

3-1

 

Key “Demand Parameters” for a Light-Duty Vehicle,

 

26

3-2

 

Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales in North America and Worldwide, 1997 to 2002,

 

28

3-3

 

Stationary Fuel Cell Systems—Typical Performance Parameters (Current),

 

32

3-4

 

Stationary Fuel Cell Systems—Projected Typical Performance Parameters (2020),

 

32

4-1

 

Estimated Cost of Elements for Transportation, Distribution, and Off-Board Storage of Hydrogen for Fuel Cell Vehicles—Present and Future,

 

39

4-2

 

Goals for Hydrogen On-Board Storage to Achieve Minimum Practical Vehicle Driving Ranges,

 

42

5-1

 

Combinations of Feedstock or Energy Source and Scale of Hydrogen Production Examined in the Committee’s Analysis,

 

46

5-2

 

Hydrogen Supply Chain Pathways Examined,

 

47

5-3

 

Sensitivity of Results of Cost Analysis for Hydrogen Production Pathways to Various Parameter Values,

 

50

7-1

 

Estimated Carbon Emissions as Carbon Dioxide Associated with Central Station Hydrogen Production from Natural Gas and Coal,

 

85

7-2

 

Estimated Plant Production Costs and Associated Outside-Plant Carbon Costs (in dollars per kilogram of hydrogen) for Central Station Hydrogen Production from Natural Gas and Coal,

 

87

8-1

 

An Overview of Nuclear Hydrogen Production Options,

 

96

8-2

 

Results from Analysis Calculating Cost and Emissions of Hydrogen Production from Wind Energy,

 

100

9-1

 

Selected Properties of Hydrogen and Other Fuel Gases,

 

109

C-1

 

DOE Hydrogen Program Planning Levels, FY02-FY04 ($000),

 

138

E-1

 

Hydrogen Supply Chain Pathways Examined,

 

142

E-2

 

Central Plant Summary of Results,

 

143

E-3

 

Central Hydrogen Plant Summary of Inputs,

 

145

E-4

 

CS Size Hydrogen Steam Reforming of Natural Gas with Current Technology,

 

146

E-5

 

CS Size Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas with Future Optimism,

 

147

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

E-6

 

CS Size Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas Plus CO2 Capture with Current Technology,

 

148

E-7

 

CS Size Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas Plus CO2 Capture with Future Optimism,

 

149

E-8

 

CS Size Hydrogen via Coal Gasification with Current Technology,

 

150

E-9

 

CS Size Hydrogen via Coal Gasification with Future Technology,

 

151

E-10

 

CS Size Hydrogen via Coal Gasification with CO2 Capture with Current Technology,

 

152

E-11

 

CS Size Hydrogen via Coal Gasification Plus CO2 Capture with Future Optimism,

 

153

E-12

 

CS Size Hydrogen via Nuclear Thermal Splitting of Water with Future Optimism,

 

154

E-13

 

Gaseous Hydrogen Distributed via Pipeline with Current Technology and Regulations,

 

155

E-14

 

Gaseous Hydrogen Distributed via Pipeline with Future Optimism,

 

156

E-15

 

Gaseous Pipeline Hydrogen-Based Fueling Stations with Current Technology,

 

157

E-16

 

Gaseous Pipeline Hydrogen-Based Fueling Stations with Future Optimism,

 

158

E-17

 

Midsize Plants Summary of Results,

 

159

E-18

 

Midsize Hydrogen Plant Summary of Inputs and Outputs,

 

160

E-19

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Current Steam Methane Reforming Technology,

 

161

E-20

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Steam Methane Reforming with Future Optimism,

 

162

E-21

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Steam Methane Reforming Plus CO2 Capture with Current Technology,

 

163

E-22

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Steam Methane Reforming Plus CO2 Capture with Future Optimism,

 

164

E-23

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Current Biomass Gasification Technology,

 

165

E-24

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Biomass Gasification with Future Optimism,

 

166

E-25

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Current Biomass Gasification Technology with CO2 Capture,

 

167

E-26

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Biomass Gasification Technology Plus CO2 Capture with Future Optimism,

 

168

E-27

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Electrolysis of Water with Current Technology,

 

169

E-28

 

Midsize Hydrogen via Electrolysis of Water with Future Optimism,

 

170

E-29

 

Liquid Hydrogen Distribution via Tanker Trucks Based on Current Technology,

 

171

E-30

 

Liquid Hydrogen Distribution via Tanker Trucks Based on Future Optimism,

 

172

E-31

 

Liquid-Hydrogen-Based Fueling Stations with Current Technology,

 

173

E-32

 

Liquid-Hydrogen-Based Fueling Stations with Future Optimism,

 

174

E-33

 

Distributed Plant Summary of Results,

 

176

E-34

 

Distributed Plant, Onsite Hydrogen Summary of Inputs,

 

178

E-35

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas with Current Technology,

 

179

E-36

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas with Future Optimism,

 

180

E-37

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Electrolysis of Water with Current Technology,

 

181

E-38

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Electrolysis of Water with Future Optimism,

 

182

E-39

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Natural-Gas-Assisted Steam Electrolysis of Water with Future Optimism,

 

183

E-40

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Wind-Turbine-Based Electrolysis with Current Technology,

 

184

E-41

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Wind-Turbine-Based Electrolysis with Future Optimism,

 

185

E-42

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via PV Solar-Based Electrolysis with Current Technology,

 

186

Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

E-43

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via PV Solar-Based Electrolysis with Future Optimism,

 

187

E-44

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Wind Turbine/Grid Hybrid-Based Electrolysis with Current Costs,

 

188

E-45

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Wind Turbine/Grid Hybrid-Based Electrolysis with Future Optimism,

 

189

E-46

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Photovoltaics/Grid Hybrid-Based Electrolysis with Current Costs,

 

190

E-47

 

Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via PV/Grid Hybrid-Based Electrolysis with Future Optimism,

 

191

E-48

 

Photovoltatic Solar Power Generation Economics for Current Technology,

 

192

E-49

 

Photovoltatic Solar Power Generation Economics of Future Optimism,

 

193

F-1

 

Some Perspective on the Size of the Current Hydrogen and Gasoline Production and Distribution Systems in the United States,

 

195

G-1

 

Economics of Conversion of Natural Gas to Hydrogen,

 

201

G-2

 

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption and Methane Emissions from Operations, 1990 and 2000,

 

203

G-3

 

Nuclear Reactor Options and Their Power Cycle Efficiency,

 

210

G-4

 

An Overview of Nuclear Hydrogen Production Options,

 

211

G-5

 

Capital Costs of Current Electrolysis Fueler Producing 480 Kilograms of Hydrogen per Day,

 

221

G-6

 

All-Inclusive Cost of Hydrogen from Current Electrolysis Fueling Technology,

 

221

G-7

 

Cost of Hydrogen from Future Electrolysis Fueling Technology,

 

222

G-8

 

Results from Analysis Calculating Cost and Emissions of Hydrogen Production from Wind Energy,

 

228

G-9

 

Estimated Cost of Hydrogen Production for Solar Cases,

 

237

H-1

 

Conversion Factors,

 

240

H-2

 

Thermodynamic Properties of Chemicals of Interest,

 

240

FIGURES

2-1

 

U.S. primary energy consumption, historical and projected, 1970 to 2025,

 

12

2-2

 

U.S. primary energy consumption, by sector, historical and projected, 1970 to 2025,

 

12

2-3

 

U.S. primary energy consumption, by fuel type, historical and projected, 1970 to 2025,

 

13

2-4

 

Total U.S. primary energy production and consumption, historical and projected, 1970 to 2025,

 

13

2-5

 

Carbon intensity of global primary energy consumption, 1890 to 1995,

 

14

2-6

 

Trends and projections in U.S. carbon emissions, by sector and by fuel, 1990 to 2025,

 

15

2-7

 

U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide, by sector and fuels, 2000,

 

16

2-8

 

Possible combinations of on-board fuels and conversion technologies for personal transportation,

 

23

2-9

 

Combinations of fuels and conversion technologies analyzed in this report,

 

24

3-1

 

Possible optimistic market scenario showing assumed fraction of hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in the United States, 2000 to 2050,

 

29

5-1

 

Unit cost estimates (cost per kilogram of hydrogen) for the “current technologies” state of development for 10 hydrogen supply technologies,

 

51

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

5-2

 

Cost details underlying estimates for 10 current hydrogen supply technologies in Figure 5-1,

 

52

5-3

 

Unit cost estimates for 11 possible future hydrogen supply technologies, including generation by dedicated nuclear plants,

 

53

5-4

 

Cost details underlying estimates in Figure 5-3 for 11 future hydrogen supply technologies, including generation by dedicated nuclear plants,

 

54

5-5

 

Unit cost estimates for four current and four possible future electrolysis technologies for the generation of hydrogen,

 

55

5-6

 

Unit cost estimates for three current and three possible future natural gas technologies for hydrogen generation,

 

55

5-7

 

Unit cost estimates for two current and two future possible coal technologies for hydrogen generation,

 

56

5-8

 

Unit cost estimates for two current and two possible future biomass-based technologies for hydrogen generation,

 

56

5-9

 

Estimates of unit atmospheric carbon release per kilogram of hydrogen produced by 10 current hydrogen supply technologies,

 

59

5-10

 

Estimates of unit atmospheric carbon release per kilogram of hydrogen produced by 11 future possible hydrogen supply technologies, including generation by dedicated nuclear plants,

 

59

5-11

 

Unit carbon emissions (kilograms of carbon per kilogram of hydrogen) versus unit costs (dollars per kilogram of hydrogen) for various hydrogen supply technologies,

 

61

5-12

 

Estimates of well-to-wheels energy use (for 27 miles-per-gallon conventional gasoline-fueled vehicles [CFVs]) with 10 current hydrogen supply technologies,

 

61

5-13

 

Estimates of well-to-wheels energy use (for 27 miles-per-gallon conventional gasoline-fueled vehicles [CFVs]) with 11 possible future hydrogen supply technologies, including generation by dedicated nuclear plants,

 

62

6-1

 

Demand in the optimistic vision created by the committee: postulated fraction of hydrogen, hybrid, and conventional vehicles, 2000–2050,

 

67

6-2

 

Postulated fuel economy based on the optimistic vision of the committee for conventional, hybrid, and hydrogen vehicles (passenger cars and light-duty trucks), 2000–2050,

 

67

6-3

 

Light-duty vehicular use of hydrogen, 2000–2050, based on the optimistic vision of the committee,

 

68

6-4

 

Gasoline use by light-duty vehicles with or without hybrid and hydrogen vehicles, 2000–2050, based on the optimistic vision of the committee,

 

68

6-5

 

Gasoline use cases based on the committee’s optimistic vision compared with Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of oil supply, demand, and imports, 2000–2050,

 

69

6-6

 

Projections by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the volume of carbon releases, by sector and by fuel, in selected years from 1990 to 2025,

 

70

6-7

 

Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks: current hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels), 2000–2050,

 

71

6-8

 

Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks: possible future hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels and nuclear energy), 2000–2050,

 

71

6-9

 

Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks: current hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables), 2000–2050,

 

72

6-10

 

Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks: possible future hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables), 2000–2050,

 

72

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

6-11

 

Estimated amounts of natural gas to generate hydrogen (current and possible future hydrogen production technologies) compared with projections by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of natural gas supply, demand, and imports, 2010–2050,

 

74

6-12

 

Estimated gasoline use reductions compared with natural gas (NG) use increases: current hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,

 

74

6-13

 

Estimated gasoline use reductions compared with natural gas (NG) use increases: possible future hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,

 

75

6-14

 

Estimated amounts of coal used to generate hydrogen (current and possible future hydrogen production technologies) compared with Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of coal production and use, 2010–2050,

 

76

6-15

 

Estimated land area used to grow biomass for hydrogen: current and possible future hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,

 

77

6-16

 

Estimated annual amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: current hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,

 

77

6-17

 

Estimated cumulative amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: current hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,

 

78

6-18

 

Estimated annual amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: possible future hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,

 

78

6-19

 

Estimated cumulative amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: possible future hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,

 

79

6-20

 

Estimated total annual fuel costs for automobiles: current hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels), 2000–2050,

 

80

6-21

 

Estimated total annual fuel costs for light-duty vehicles: current hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables), 2000–2050,

 

81

6-22

 

Estimated total annual fuel costs for light-duty vehicles: possible future hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels and nuclear energy), 2000–2050,

 

82

6-23

 

Estimated total annual fuel costs for light-duty vehicles: possible future hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables), 2000–2050,

 

82

7-1

 

Feedstocks used in the current global production of hydrogen,

 

85

F-1

 

World fossil energy resources,

 

195

F-2

 

Annual production scenarios for the mean resource estimate showing sharp and rounded peaks, 1900–2125,

 

196

G-1

 

Schematic representation of the steam methane reforming process,

 

199

G-2

 

Estimated investment costs for current and possible future hydrogen plants (with no carbon sequestration) of three sizes,

 

202

G-3

 

Estimated costs for conversion of natural gas to hydrogen in plants of three sizes, current and possible future cases, with and without sequestration of CO2,

 

202

G-4

 

Estimated effects of the price of natural gas on the cost of hydrogen at plants of three sizes using steam methane reforming,

 

204

G-5

 

Power cycle net efficiency (ηel) and thermal-to-hydrogen efficiency (ηH) for the gas turbine modular helium reactor (He) high-temperature electrolysis of steam (HTES) and the supercritical CO2 (S-CO2) advanced gas-cooled reactor HTES technologies,

 

212

G-6

 

The energy needs for hydrogen production by the gas turbine modular helium reactor (He cycle) high-temperature electrolysis of steam (HTES) and the supercritical CO2 (S-CO2 cycle) advanced gas-cooled reactor HTES technologies,

 

213

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×

G-7

 

Depiction of the most promising sulfur thermochemical cycles for water splitting,

 

214

G-8

 

Estimated thermal-to-hydrogen efficiency (ηH) of the sulfur-iodine (SI) process and thermal energy required to produce a kilogram of hydrogen from the modular high-temperature reactor-SI technology,

 

215

G-9

 

Electrolysis cell stack energy consumption as a function of cell stack current density,

 

220

G-10

 

Sensitivity of the cost of hydrogen from distributed electrolysis to the price of input electricity,

 

223

G-11

 

Wind generating capacity, 1981–2002, world and U.S. totals,

 

225

G-12

 

Hydrogen from wind power availability,

 

226

G-13

 

Efficiency of biological conversion of solar energy,

 

230

G-14

 

Geographic distribution of projected bioenergy crop plantings on all acres in 2008 in the production management scenario,

 

231

G-15

 

Best research cell efficiencies for multijunction concentrator, thin-film, crystalline silicon, and emerging photovoltaic technologies,

 

236

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R1
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R2
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R3
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R4
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R5
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R6
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R7
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
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Page R8
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R10
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R11
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R12
Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R13
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R14
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
×
Page R15
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering. 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10922.
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Page R16
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The announcement of a hydrogen fuel initiative in the President’s 2003 State of the Union speech substantially increased interest in the potential for hydrogen to play a major role in the nation’s long-term energy future. Prior to that event, DOE asked the National Research Council to examine key technical issues about the hydrogen economy to assist in the development of its hydrogen R&D program. Included in the assessment were the current state of technology; future cost estimates; CO2 emissions; distribution, storage, and end use considerations; and the DOE RD&D program. The report provides an assessment of hydrogen as a fuel in the nation’s future energy economy and describes a number of important challenges that must be overcome if it is to make a major energy contribution. Topics covered include the hydrogen end-use technologies, transportation, hydrogen production technologies, and transition issues for hydrogen in vehicles.

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