Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter

·IV·

Continuing Research Progress

Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter

Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter ·IV· Continuing Research Progress Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Division on Earth and Life Studies NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by Contract No. 68-C-98-003 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Control Number 2004112036 International Standard Book Number 0-309-09199-3 (Book) 0-309-53170-5 (PDF) Additional copies of this report are available from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council www.national-academies.org

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress COMMITTEE ON RESEARCH PRIORITIES FOR AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER JONATHAN SAMET (Chair), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD JUDITH CHOW, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV BART CROES, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento ROBERT FORSTER, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia DANIEL GREENBAUM, Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA PHILIP HOPKE, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY PETROS KOUTRAKIS, Harvard University, Boston, MA DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON PAUL LIOY, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, Piscataway JOE MAUDERLY, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM ROGER MCCLELLAN, Albuquerque, NM GÜNTER OBERDÖRSTER, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY REBECCA PARKIN, George Washington University Medical Center, Washington, DC JOYCE PENNER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor RICHARD SCHLESINGER, Pace University, New York, NY FRANK SPEIZER, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA MARK UTELL, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY RONALD WHITE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD WARREN WHITE, University of California, Davis RONALD WYZGA, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA TERRY YOSIE, American Chemistry Council, Arlington, VA Project Staff RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Project Director EILEEN N. ABT, Senior Staff Officer KULBIR BAKSHI, Senior Staff Officer K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer KARL GUSTAVSON, Staff Officer AMANDA C. STAUDT, Staff Officer RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Editor RACHEL HOFFMAN, Intern MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Research Assistant EMILY L. BRADY, Senior Program Assistant SAMMY BARDLEY, Library Assistant

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Members JONATHAN M. SAMET (Chair), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin THOMAS BURKE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD JUDITH C. CHOW, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV COSTEL D. DENSON, University of Delaware, Newark E. DONALD ELLIOTT, Yale Law School, New Haven, CT CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, CA WILLIAM H. GLAZE, Oregon Health and Science University, Beaverton SHERRI W. GOODMAN, Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, VA DANIEL S. GREENBAUM, Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, MA ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM CAROL HENRY, American Chemistry Council, Arlington, VA ROBERT HUGGETT, Michigan State University, East Lansing BARRY L. JOHNSON Emory University, Atlanta, GA JAMES H. JOHNSON, Howard University, Washington, DC JUDITH L. MEYER, University of Georgia, Athens PATRICK V. O’BRIEN, Chevron Research and Technology, Richmond, CA DOROTHY E. PATTON, International Life Sciences Institute, Washington, DC STEWARD T.A. PICKETT, Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY ARMISTEAD G. RUSSELL, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta LOUISE M. RYAN, Harvard University, Boston, MA KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley LISA SPEER, Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY G. DAVID TILMAN, University of Minnesota, St. Paul CHRIS G. WHIPPLE, Environ Incorporated, Emeryville, CA LAUREN A. ZEISE, California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland Senior Staff JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for Toxicology ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer SUSAN N.J. MARTEL, Senior Staff Officer SUZANNE VAN DRUNICK, Senior Staff Officer EILEEN N. ABT, Senior Staff Officer ELLEN K. MANTUS, Senior Staff Officer RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Managing Editor

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Air Quality Management in the United States (2004) Endangered and Threatened Species of the Platte River (2004) Atlantic Salmon in Maine (2004) Endangered and Threatened Fishes in the Klamath River Basin (2004) Cumulative Environmental Effects of Alaska North Slope Oil and Gas Development (2003) Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations (2002) Biosolids Applied to Land: Advancing Standards and Practices (2002) The Airliner Cabin Environment and Health of Passengers and Crew (2002) Arsenic in Drinking Water: 2001 Update (2001) Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs (2001) Compensating for Wetland Losses Under the Clean Water Act (2001) A Risk-Management Strategy for PCB-Contaminated Sediments (2001) Acute Exposure Guideline Levels for Selected Airborne Chemicals (4 volumes, 2000-2004) Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (2000) Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2000) Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000) Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000) Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999) Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999) Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter (4 volumes, 1998-2004) The National Research Council’s Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997) Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996) Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996) Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995) Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995) Biologic Markers (5 volumes, 1989-1995) Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 volumes, 1994-1995) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994) Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993) Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992) Science and the National Parks (1992) Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991) Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991) Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990) Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academies Press (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 www.nap.edu

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress Dedication to the Memory of Professor Glen Cass (1947-2001) We dedicate this report to the memory of our late colleague and fellow committee member, Professor Glen Cass. Glen represented superbly the multidisciplinary research approach that we advocate in this report. Over the past two decades, from his Ph.D. research on sulfates to subsequent work on ozone, nitrates, primary and secondary carbon, visibility reduction, and indoor air quality, Glen and his research group unraveled the sources, atmospheric processes, toxicity, and emission controls needed to curtail the detrimental impacts of particulate matter on public health and welfare. Glen had a unique ability to combine elegant scientific approaches with sound engineering judgment to arrive at practical solutions that have been incorporated into air quality management practices in Los Angeles, the northeastern United States, and Asia. His legacy includes a large body of research and a rigorous, yet practical, approach to training a generation of air pollution scientists, who continue to lay the foundation needed for science-based decisionmaking. As a colleague, a friend, and an inspiration, we all sorely miss him.

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress Preface Under the Clean Air Act, particulate matter (PM) is one of the major air pollutants for which National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) are to be established on the basis of the scientific evidence on risks to human health. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), other federal and state government agencies, and nongovernment organizations are conducting a major multiyear research effort to improve scientific understanding of airborne PM and its effects on human health. An overall objective is to reduce uncertainties in the scientific evidence used to set the NAAQS for airborne PM in the United States. At the request of Congress and EPA, the National Research Council's Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter was established in 1998 and given the charge of developing a research agenda for this purpose and then monitoring research progress. Biosketches of the committee members are presented in Appendix A. This report, the committee’s fourth, comes 6 years after its first report, which proposed a 13-year research portfolio. This report evaluates research progress since the first report, evaluates possible barriers to continued progress, and makes recommendations for future research directions and research management. The first of the committee's four planned reports, Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio, was published in 1998. It identified 10 high-priority research topics linked to key policy-related scientific uncertainties and presented a 13-year "research investment portfolio" containing recommended short-term and long-term phasing and estimated costs of research on each topic. Congress, EPA, and the scientific community gave strong support to the committee's recommendations and implemented substantial changes in research efforts in response to them. The committee’s second report, Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: II. Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio, published in 1999, described the committee’s plans for monitoring the progress of research. In addition, the research recommendations from the committee’s first report were updated, and recommendations related to emissions and air quality models were substantially revised. The committee’s third report, published in 2001, monitored the prog-

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress ress of the research begun in 1998 or later to address the priority research topics identified by the committee. Although much research had been initiated, not enough time had elapsed by then for many of the projects to be completed and their results reported. The third report should be viewed as a preliminary assessment of research progress. In this final report, the committee faced the challenge of gauging research progress on each of its 10 research topics. It developed an approach for characterizing the degree to which new evidence has reduced uncertainty and then gathered and evaluated the evidence coming from research over 5 years since the first report. The committee was assisted by the many individuals (listed below) who participated in workshops and public sessions of committee meetings held for the purpose of learning about relevant findings. Research progress reflects not only the creativity and efforts of researchers but also the efficiency of research management. This report also provides recommendations for future consideration of research on PM, as this committee’s work is now finished. The committee received oral or written presentations or both from the following individuals: John Bachmann, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Tina Bahadori, American Chemistry Council; John Bailar, University of Chicago; David V. Bates, University of British Columbia; William Bennett, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Michael Brauer, University of British Columbia; Richard Burnett, Health Canada; Lilian Calderon-Garciduenas, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Aaron Cohen, Health Effects Institute; Daniel Costa, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Robin Dennis, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Robert Devlin, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Douglas Dockery, Harvard School of Public Health; Francesca Dominici, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Ed Edney, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Mark Frampton, University of Rochester; John Froines, University of California at Los Angeles; Patrick Gaffney, California Air Resources Board; Chris Geron, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Frank Gilliland, University of Southern California; Ian Gilmour, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; John Godleski, Harvard School of Public Health; Judy Graham, while at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, currently at the American Chemistry Council; Jack Harkema, Michigan State University; Bruce Harris, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; James Hogg, University of British Columbia; Patrick Kinney, Columbia University School of Public Health; Michael Kleinman, University of California at Irvine; Jane Koenig, University of Washington; Timothy Larson, University of Washington; Allen Lefohn, A.S.L. & Associates; Chuck Lewis, U.S. Environ-

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress mental Protection Agency; Joellen Lewtas, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Morton Lippmann, New York University School of Medicine; Phillip Lorang, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Robert Mason, National Jewish Medical and Research Center; Andrew Miller, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Fred Miller, CIIT Centers for Health Research; David Mobley, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; D. Warner North, NorthWorks; William Ollison, American Petroleum Institute; Wayne Ott, Stanford University; Pedro Oyola, Chilean National Commission for the Environment; Joseph Paisie, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Giovanni Parmigiani, Johns Hopkins University; Robert Phalen, University of California at Irvine; C. Arden Pope III, Brigham Young University; Peter Preuss, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Charles Rodes, Research Triangle Institute; Joseph Rodricks, ENVIRON International Corporation; Armistead Russell, Georgia Institute of Technology; Richard Scheffe, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Kenneth Schere, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; John Seitz, while at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, currently at Sonnenschein, Nath & Rosenthal, LLP; Linda Sheldon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Lianne Sheppard, University of Washington; Dean Smith, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Paul Solomon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Helen Suh, Harvard School of Public Health; Joseph Tikvart, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Paige Tolbert, Emory University; Sverre Vedal, National Jewish Medical and Research Center; James Vickery, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Russell Weiner, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Ronald Williams, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; William Wilson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; and Denis Zmirou, French Institute of Health and Medical Research. We are grateful for the assistance of the NRC staff in preparing the report. We wish to thank Raymond Wassel, project director, and James Reisa, director of BEST. Scientific and technical information was provided by Eileen Abt, Kulbir Bakshi, K. John Holmes, Karl Gustavson, Amanda Staudt, Mirsada Karalic-Loncarevic, and Rachel Hoffman. Invaluable logistical support was provided by Emily Brady. The report was ably edited by Ruth Crossgrove. Finally, I would like to thank all the members of the committee for their dedicated efforts throughout the development of this report. Jonathan Samet, Chair Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress Acknowledgment of Review Participants This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Carol Henry, American Chemistry Council; George Hidy, ENVAIR; Morton Lippmann, New York University Medical Center; Ronald Low, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey; D. Warner North, NorthWorks; Robert Phalen, University of California at Irvine; C. Arden Pope, Brigham Young University; and Armistead Russell, Georgia Institute of Technology. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Annetta Watson, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Appointed by the NRC she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress Contents     SUMMARY   3 1   Introduction   24      Committee’s Task,   24      Status of the EPA Review of the NAAQS for Particulate Matter,   28      The Need for Research on Particulate Matter,   29      Research on Particulate Matter,   37      The Committee’s Approach to Its Task,   45      Organization of the Report,   46 2   COMMITTEE’S APPROACH TO EVALUATION OF RESEARCH PROGRESS   47      Introduction,   47      Background,   48      The Committee’s Evaluative Approach,   60      Considerations in Interpreting Research Progress on Particulate Matter,   63 3   SYNTHESIS OF RESEARCH PROGRESS ON PARTICULATE MATTER   64      Introduction,   64      Research Topic 1: Outdoor Measures Versus Actual Human Exposures,   65      Research Topic 2: Exposures of Susceptible Subpopulations to Toxic Particulate Matter Components,   70      Research Topic 3: Characterization of Emission Sources,   72      Research Topic 4: Air Quality Model Development and Testing,   79      Research Topic 5: Assess Hazardous Particulate Matter Components,   88      Research Topic 6: Dosimetry: Deposition and Fate of Particles in the Respiratory Tract,   95

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress      Research Topic 7: Combined Effects of Particulate Matter and Gaseous Copollutants,   98      Research Topic 8: Susceptible Subpopulations,   102      Research Topic 9: Mechanisms of Injury,   106      Research Topic 10: Analysis and Measurement,   111      Summary,   116 4   LOOKING ACROSS THE RESEARCH TOPICS   118      Introduction,   118      Health Outcomes and Susceptible Subpopulations,   119      Assessing Hazardous Particulate Matter Components,   120      Increasing Emphasis on Exposure-Dose-Response Relationships,   123      Mixtures and Copollutants,   124      NAAQS Implications,   125 5   THE CHALLENGES AHEAD FOR PARTICULATE MATTER RESEARCH   127      Introduction,   127      Developing a Systematic Program to Assess the Toxicity of Different Components of the Particulate Matter Mixture,   130      Enhancing Air Quality Monitoring for Research, 132          Investigating the Health Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution,   134      Improved Toxicological Approaches,   139      From a Particulate Matter Research Program to a Multipollutant Research Program,   141      Integrating Across the Disciplines,   146      Summary and Conclusions,   149 6   THE WAY FORWARD   150      Introduction,   150      Sustained Research Management,   151      Improved Tools for Science Tracking and Synthesis,   162      Conclusion,   165 7   CONCLUSION   166     REFERENCES   169     TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS   187

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: IV - Continuing Research Progress APPENDIX A:   BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION ON THE COMMITTEE ON RESEARCH PRIORITIES FOR AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER   191 APPENDIX B:   THE COMMITTEE’S STATEMENT OF TASK   202 APPENDIX C:   DETAILED ASSESSMENT OF PARTICULATE MATTER RESEARCH PROGRESS   203

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