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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report Appendix C Workshop Agenda February 23-24, 2004 Washington, D.C. Monday, February 23 OPEN SESSION 8:15 am Welcome and Introduction Darrell Branscome, Chair 8:30 Focus Topic 1: “The Rationale for Human and Robotic Space Exploration” Moderator: Charles Walker Panel Discussion Neil Armstrong, EDO Corporation (retired) David J. Goldston, Chief of Staff, House Committee on Science Wesley Huntress, Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington David Logsdon, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Space Enterprise Council Donna Shirley, Director, Experience Science Fiction, Seattle Focusing Questions: What are the compelling reasons for human or robotic presence in space? What are the appropriate roles for robotic exploration and human exploration and development of space? What technological barriers must be overcome? What role should federal government, industry, academia, and the private citizen have in this exploration and development of space? How best do we establish and sustain public support for such endeavors? 10:00 Break 10:15 Overview of Office of Exploration Systems (Code T) and Context of FY2005 Budget Adm. Craig Steidle, NASA 10:45 Presentation of Advanced Systems, Technologies, John C. Mankins
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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report Research, and Analysis for Future Spaceflight Capabilities Director of Human and Robotics Technology, Code T 11:45 Question and Answer Period 12:15 pm Lunch 1:15 Recent Architecture Studies and Technology Drivers James Geffre Johnson Space Flight Center 1:45 Focus Topic 2: “Technology as a Driver for Capability Transformation” Moderator: Darrell Branscome 1:50 DARPA Space Activities: Genesis, Legacy, and Vision Joe Guerci, DARPA 2:15 Panel Discussion Moderator: Charles Trimble David Hardy, DOD Space Experiments Review Board Brad Parkinson, Stanford University, GPS Model Christine Sloane, General Motors (PNGV/FreedomCAR) 3:15 Break 3:30 Panel Discussion Moderator: Dava Newman Jacqueline Haynes, Intelligent Automation, Inc.- small business perspective Stanley Schneider, National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Project Chris Stevens, NASA New Millennium Program Manager, JPL Focusing Questions: What, briefly, is the role of technology as an agent for organization and capability transformation, specifically as related to your organization? What other factors must be present to facilitate technology as an agent for transformation? What are the obstacles that are in the path of using technology to accomplish capability transformation? What are the important barriers that must be overcome in using technology to facilitate capability transformation? What are the challenges to achieving technology insertion into capability development?
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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report What are the appropriate time templates to use for technology-driven innovation? 4:30 Final Thoughts/Discussion Dava Newman 5:00-6:00 Reception Tuesday, February 24 OPEN SESSION 8:15 am Welcome Back Darrell Branscome 8:20 Focus Topic 3: “Risk Aversion—Flying in the Face of Uncertainty” Moderator: Molly Macauley Panel Discussion Gen. John Barry, CAIB viewpoint Joseph Fuller, Futron Corporation Gregg Hagedorn, NAVSEA Allan Mazur, Syracuse University Richard Obermann, Staff Member, House Science Committee Michael G. Stamatelatos, NASA Director for Safety & Assurance Requirements Focusing Questions: What lessons might be shared about differences in risk perception by the public, the Congress, and the agency (NASA)? How are perceptions influenced by risks that are low probability but high cost? The NASA model under discussion (ASTRA) omits explicit treatment of risk. Risk can be defined in many ways—it can, for example; include economic, technological, and political uncertainty—but no matter how it is defined, the model does not explicitly include it. Specifically, the model does not (1) incorporate the consequences of failure to meet milestones, (2) identify decision points at which technology development might be terminated because of cost, engineering problems, or obsolescence, (3) illustrate the cost impacts of failure or redirection of technology development, or (4) include fallback strategies. What modeling techniques might you suggest that would enable the model to incorporate probabilistic treatment yet remain tractable? Among the arguments against including probabilistic treatment in the model are that it renders the model more difficult for decision makers to comprehend and can undermine the political ability to sell the technologies. How significant are these concerns and how can they be
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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report addressed? Lessons learned from the development of other technologies (for instance, nuclear power generation, the superconducting supercollider, synthetic fuels) might be useful if you can share them. 10:00 Break 10:15 am Focus Topic 4: “International Cooperation/Competition–Why, How, When?” Moderator: Eric Rice Panel Discussion Joanne Gabrynowicz, National Remote Sensing and Space Law Center Joan Johnson-Freese, Naval War College (by telephone) Ian Pryke, George Mason University Marcia Smith, Congressional Research Service Focusing Questions: What are the real goals and interests of the nations of the world with respect to their involvement in space tourism, space exploration, space bases, space commercialization, space settlements, and planetary terraforming? What are the specific short- and long-term goals and objectives of the United States, the European Space Agency (ESA), China, Japan, and Russia in terms of their national and international space activities? Should future manned lunar surface and Mars surface activity be national (U.S.) or international? What are the economic, social, political, or other benefits to be gained by nations doing it alone vs. doing it together with all or several partners? Discuss implications of the ASTRA paradigm in terms of international cooperation and competition. When government agreements on ISS are complete, what should happen in the future? How will China’s new space capability enter into U.S. decisions? What are the commercial and political issues related to mining and use of in situ resources on planetary surfaces by one nation, several nations, or the whole space community? What should be done from the international perspective? 11:30 Wrap-Up Discussion/Where We Go Now Darrell Branscome 12:00 noon Adjourn
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