Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report (2004)

Focus Topic 1: “The Rationale for Human and Robotic Space Exploration”

Moderator: Charles Walker

Panel Discussion

Neil Armstrong, EDO Corporation (retired)

Focusing Questions:

• What are the compelling reasons for human or robotic presence in space?

• What are the appropriate roles for robotic exploration and human exploration and development of space?

• What technological barriers must be overcome?

• What role should federal government, industry, academia, and the private citizen have in this exploration and development of space?

• How best do we establish and sustain public support for such endeavors?

Break

John C. Mankins

Question and Answer Period

Lunch

Focus Topic 2: “Technology as a Driver for Capability Transformation”

Moderator: Darrell Branscome

Panel Discussion

Moderator: Charles Trimble

David Hardy, DOD Space Experiments Review Board

Brad Parkinson, Stanford University, GPS Model

Christine Sloane, General Motors (PNGV/FreedomCAR)

Break

Panel Discussion

Moderator: Dava Newman

Jacqueline Haynes, Intelligent Automation, Inc.- small business perspective

Stanley Schneider, National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Project

Chris Stevens, NASA New Millennium Program Manager, JPL

Focusing Questions:

• What, briefly, is the role of technology as an agent for organization and capability transformation, specifically as related to your organization?

• What other factors must be present to facilitate technology as an agent for transformation?

• What are the obstacles that are in the path of using technology to accomplish capability transformation?

• What are the important barriers that must be overcome in using technology to facilitate capability transformation?

• What are the challenges to achieving technology insertion into capability development?

• What are the appropriate time templates to use for technology-driven innovation?

Reception

Welcome Back

Focus Topic 3: “Risk Aversion—Flying in the Face of Uncertainty”

Moderator: Molly Macauley Panel Discussion

Gen. John Barry, CAIB viewpoint

Focusing Questions:

• What lessons might be shared about differences in risk perception by the public, the Congress, and the agency (NASA)? How are perceptions influenced by risks that are low probability but high cost?

• The NASA model under discussion (ASTRA) omits explicit treatment of risk. Risk can be defined in many ways—it can, for example; include economic, technological, and political uncertainty—but no matter how it is defined, the model does not explicitly include it. Specifically, the model does not (1) incorporate the consequences of failure to meet milestones, (2) identify decision points at which technology development might be terminated because of cost, engineering problems, or obsolescence, (3) illustrate the cost impacts of failure or redirection of technology development, or (4) include fallback strategies. What modeling techniques might you suggest that would enable the model to incorporate probabilistic treatment yet remain tractable?

• Among the arguments against including probabilistic treatment in the model are that it renders the model more difficult for decision makers to comprehend and can undermine the political ability to sell the technologies. How significant are these concerns and how can they be

addressed? Lessons learned from the development of other technologies (for instance, nuclear power generation, the superconducting supercollider, synthetic fuels) might be useful if you can share them.

Break

Focus Topic 4: “International Cooperation/Competition–Why, How, When?”

Moderator: Eric Rice

Panel Discussion

Joanne Gabrynowicz, National Remote Sensing and Space Law Center

Focusing Questions:

• What are the real goals and interests of the nations of the world with respect to their involvement in space tourism, space exploration, space bases, space commercialization, space settlements, and planetary terraforming?

• What are the specific short- and long-term goals and objectives of the United States, the European Space Agency (ESA), China, Japan, and Russia in terms of their national and international space activities?

• Should future manned lunar surface and Mars surface activity be national (U.S.) or international? What are the economic, social, political, or other benefits to be gained by nations doing it alone vs. doing it together with all or several partners?

• Discuss implications of the ASTRA paradigm in terms of international cooperation and competition. When government agreements on ISS are complete, what should happen in the future? How will China’s new space capability enter into U.S. decisions?

• What are the commercial and political issues related to mining and use of in situ resources on planetary surfaces by one nation, several nations, or the whole space community? What should be done from the international perspective?

Wrap-Up Discussion/Where We Go Now

noon Adjourn