Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration

A Workshop Report

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration A Workshop Report Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study was supported by Contract NASW-99037 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project. Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W, Washington, DC 20001 Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report STEERING COMMITTEE FOR WORKSHOPS ON ISSUES OF TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOR HUMAN AND ROBOTIC EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SPACE DARRELL R. BRANSCOME, Chair, Science Applications International Corporation, Hampton, Virginia STEPHEN GOREVAN, Honeybee Robotics, Ltd., New York, New York MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, D.C. DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge ERIC E. RICE, ORBITEC, Madison, Wisconsin CHARLES R. TRIMBLE, U.S. Global Positioning System Industry Council, Sunnyvale, California CHARLES D. WALKER, Boeing Company, Arlington, Virginia Staff KAREN E. HARWELL, Study Director GEORGE M. LEVIN, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board BRIDGET R. EDMONDS, Senior Project Assistant

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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD WILLIAM W. HOOVER, Chair, U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia RUZENA K. BAJCSY (NAE/IOM), University of California at Berkeley JAMES (MICKY) BLACKWELL, Lockheed Martin (retired), Marietta, Georgia EDWARD M. BOLEN, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, Washington, D.C. ANTHONY J. BRODERICK, Aviation Safety Consultant, Catlett, Virginia SUSAN M. COUGHLIN, Aviation Safety Alliance, Washington, D.C. ROBERT L. CRIPPEN, Thiokol Propulsion (retired), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida DONALD L. CROMER, U.S. Air Force (retired) and Hughes Space and Communications (retired), Fallbrook, California JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland RICHARD GOLASZEWSKI, GRA Incorporated, Jenkintown, Pennsylvania S. MICHAEL HUDSON, Rolls-Royce North America (retired), Indianapolis JOHN L. JUNKINS (NAE), Texas A&M University, College Station JOHN M. KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Redwood City, California ILAN M. KROO, Stanford University, Stanford, California JOHN K. LAUBER, Airbus North America, Inc., Washington, D.C. GEORGE K. MUELLNER, The Boeing Company, Long Beach, California DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MALCOLM O’NEILL, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland CYNTHIA SAMUELSON, Logistics Management Institute, McLean, Virginia KATHRYN C. THORNTON, University of Virginia, Charlottesville HANSEL E. TOOKES II, Raytheon International Inc. (retired), Falls Church, Virginia ROBERT W. WALKER, Wexler and Walker Public Policy Associates, Washington, D.C. DIANNE S. WILEY, The Boeing Company, Arlington, Virginia THOMAS L. WILLIAMS, Northrop Grumman, El Segundo, California GEORGE LEVIN, Director

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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report Preface The Office of Space Flight’s Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) Exploration Program within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has so far focused on long-term objectives such as the human exploration of the solar system.1 One previous effort in the Office of Space Flight was Technology for Human/Robotic Exploration and Development of Space (THREADS), which focused on three main areas of investment: (1) systems analysis and advanced concepts, (2) HEDS-enabling advanced research and technology, and (3) technology flight demonstration projects. THREADS was a new framework for space technology investment described as being driven by science and addressing NASA’s largest challenges. The National Research Council (NRC) was tasked in the summer of 2001 with providing a multiyear review of the requirements, priorities, process, and content of the THREADS roadmaps. The THREADS project, canceled by NASA Headquarters in September 2001, was perceived by many as the only means for strategic planning for space technology development within the HEDS portfolio. The NRC study was also canceled at that time. However, responding to the need for increased external input into its planning processes, NASA’s Office of Space Flight asked the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (ASEB) at NRC to plan a series of open workshops on issues important to technology development for human and robotic exploration and development of space (see Appendix A for the statement of task). Issues surrounding this topic include the development of specific processes to guide technology development, the need for pervasive strategic planning for technology development at NASA, increased synergy between NASA and other government agencies in technology development, and the need to address the development of space in a manner that involves the stakeholders. Key to this effort was the planning of a series of workshops to investigate related issues within a new framework, similar to the THREADS framework but entitled Advanced Systems, Technologies, Research, and Analysis (ASTRA). The National Academies convened a steering committee to plan the workshops (see Appendix B for biographies of steering committee members). The first workshop focused on general policy issues concerning the development and demonstration of space technologies. The second workshop, still in the planning stage, will focus on the interrelationship between government and industry in the development of advanced space systems. The first workshop took place February 23-24, 2004, in Washington, D.C. Participants included government, industry, and academic stakeholders in space technology policy, and the open discussions centered on four main topics—the rationale 1   On January 14, 2004, President George W. Bush announced a new space exploration vision (seehttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/01/20040114-1.html). In response, NASA has reorganized many resources and programs to better meet the requirements for this vision. Most programs related to human and robotic technology are now within the new Office for Exploration Systems (Code T).

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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report for space exploration and development, technology and capability transformation,2 risk mitigation, and international cooperation. The workshop agenda is presented in Appendix C and the list of participants in Appendix D. The workshop was intended to provide a forum for various stakeholders to discuss technology policy issues related to long-term cultivation of advanced space systems. This report represents a factual summary, prepared by the committee with staff assistance, of the proceedings of the workshop. The workshop report is not a comprehensive report on technology policy issues surrounding human and robotic exploration and development of space, but rather a synopsis of the presentations by individual panelists and speakers and discussion at the workshop. It should not be taken as a consensus report of the ASEB or the National Research Council. The intent of this workshop was to provide a broad overview of issues related to human and robotic space exploration. Although the direction of several speaker’s presentations appeared focused on the human aspect of space exploration, the focusing questions provided to the panelists were balanced in their treatment of the topic. Though not an agenda item, the reorganization of NASA following the January 14, 2004, announcement by President George W. Bush of a new vision for space exploration was discussed by most panelists during their remarks. The announcement noticeably affected discussion at the workshop. The steering committee was not tasked with analyzing or commenting on the new vision and the accompanying reorganization. However, the new organizational structure at NASA does affect the environment in which space technology is developed at NASA and the context in which the workshop was held. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 provides an introduction to the workshop’s topic. Chapter 3 discusses the rationale for human and robotic exploration of space. Chapters 4 contains an overview of the new NASA organization and a proposed framework for space technology development. Chapters 5 through 7 cover the remaining three workshop topics—technology and capability transformation, risk mitigation, and international cooperation. Darrell R. Branscome Chair, Steering Committee for Workshops on Issues of Technology Development for Human and Robotic Exploration and Development of Space 2   Transformation, as used in this workshop, suggests a change that shifts a paradigm. For example, the transportation paradigm has been shifted several times, including by the invention of both the automobile and the airplane.

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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Howard Baum, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Joseph Fuller, Futron Corporation, Noel Hinners, Lockheed Martin (retired), Simon Ostrach, Case Western Reserve University, Thomas Prince, California Institute of Technology, and Ian Pryke, George Mason University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Thomas Sheridan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report Contents 1   SUMMARY   1 2   INTRODUCTION   7 3   RATIONALE FOR HUMAN AND ROBOTIC SPACE EXPLORATION   11 4.   NASA EXPLORATION SYSTEMS AND ARCHITECTURES   19 5   TECHNOLOGY AS A DRIVER FOR CAPABILITY TRANSFORMATION   29 6   RISK AVERSION—FLYING IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY   38 7   INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION/COMPETITION—WHY, HOW, WHEN?   44     APPENDIXES         A   Statement of Task   53     B   Committee Member Biographies   54     C   Workshop Agenda   57     D   Workshop Attendees   61     E   Acronyms and Abbreviations   63

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