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Setting Priorities for Space Research: Opportunities and Imperatives (Chapter 1)
Setting Priorities for Space Research
Opportunities and Imperatives
1
Setting the Course for Space Research
In response to national goals set more than three decades ago, the U.S. space
program and its space research components have produced remarkable scientific and
technological achievements. Apollo propelled the United States into a position of world
technological leadership. Scientific missions have surveyed the heavens and the Earth
itself, sending back information that has given us deeper understanding of the nature of our
physical world and the universe around us. Success in space science and applications has
generated even greater opportunities for future accomplishment. Now, for the years ahead,
we must decide what we should do and how we should do it.
The fundamental assumption shaping the U.S. civil space program, and
consequently space research, was expressed in the Apollo era "as the manifestation of a
vision—the vision that our human destiny is to explore the universe."1 In this context, the
military metaphor of "mission" has been used to refer to all space activities, including
REPORT MENU scientific research. The use of this term emphasizes the penetration of a difficult domain,
NOTICE rather than the information and knowledge to be acquired. The Apollo perspective
MEMBERSHIP continues to guide the program; the Space Station is intended to provide "a permanent
PREFACE manned presence" in space, and the President has set the "long-range goal of expanding
SUMMARY
human presence and activity beyond Earth orbit into the Solar system."2
CHAPTER 1
CHAPTER 2
Unfortunately, the goals and accomplishments of the scientific community have
CHAPTER 3
sometimes been constrained by the Apollo vision. Scientific efforts focus on the outcome of
CHAPTER 4
an activity (e.g., an experiment, observation, simulation, or derivation) by concentrating on
CHAPTER 5
the knowledge or understanding to be gained. The successful flight of a spacecraft
conveying scientific experiments is a means to that end.
The space program serves a variety of important national goals, including fostering
national pride and prestige, developing and maintaining economic and technological vitality,
and generating scientific information and understanding. The issue addressed here is not
the relative value of the human spaceflight or space research components of the program.
Rather, this report seeks to contribute to the development of a vision along with objectives
and operating principles that will assist the nation in realizing the maximum benefits from its
investment in space research and other space activities. The value of any initiative or
activity in the space program is measured by the extent to which it serves national goals.
Initiatives that advance all of these goals should be preferable to those with more limited
contributions. From the national perspective, a scientific mission that is technologically
challenging may be preferable to one that employs routine capabilities. In turn, a crewed
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Setting Priorities for Space Research: Opportunities and Imperatives (Chapter 1)
mission or a facility with a governing scientific purpose will be more valuable than one that
demonstrates technological capability alone. Thus scientific research may be served by
both crewed and robotic missions that concentrate on the timely acquisition of information
and scientific and technical knowledge, and these objectives are compatible with all
aspects of the civil space program. Furthermore, these objectives should determine how
access to space is achieved and how scientific research in space is ultimately conducted.
This report examines some of the issues involved in setting priorities within the
scientific research in space program and, to the degree that it is relevant, within the entire
space program. Priorities, in the sense used here, are rankings in a preferential ordering or
agenda, possibly multidimensional, that governs allocation of resources to activities or
initiatives. A system of priorities appropriate for scientific research in space or for the entire
space program would be more sophisticated than a simple rank ordering.
Priorities are intimately related to basic assumptions about purpose and motivation.
For the space program and for space research, such assumptions may determine events
more powerfully than judgments based on scientific merit or national values or shaped by
the imperatives of changing economic and political conditions. For example, an emphasis
on transport to space led to the launching of several scientific research vehicles (e.g.,
Galileo, Magellan, Ulysses, and Hubble) by the Space Shuttle regardless of whether the
Shuttle was appropriate to the scientific task. The contemplation of priorities that might
produce an effective agenda for space research, or for the entire space program, must
include examination of fundamental assumptions and the opportunities and constraints
consequent upon them.
DEFINITIONS
The U.S. space program—the totality of the national efforts in space research,
applications, and engineering and technology for activities in space.
The civil space program—the civilian (nondefense) components of the space
program.
The human spaceflight program—those components of the space program that
involve the flight of humans in space vehicles.
Space research—Scientific activities concerned with phenomena in space, or utilizing
observations obtained in, or from, space, including the use of information derived from
space to advance other activities. Research in space involves observation,
development of scientific instruments and scientific support technology, data
management and analysis, creation of theories and models concerning phenomena
observed from space, and application of space observations to further economic or
socially beneficial activities.
Space science and applications—Here, synonymous with space research.
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Setting Priorities for Space Research: Opportunities and Imperatives (Chapter 1)
The task group's studies of priorities in space research have led it to believe that the
nation would benefit if space research and much of the space program emphasized the
acquisition of information and knowledge and the development of insight and
understanding. Adopting the acquisition of information that cannot be obtained on Earth as
the primary purpose of space activities is compatible with national needs to develop
advanced technologies and capabilities. Most significantly, such a purpose provides clear
objectives for future development of the human spaceflight program.
As illustrated in Chapter 2, observations from space reveal an unexpected and
wondrous complexity. The objects and phenomena we have studied have turned out to be
much more complex than imagined. The goal of research is to unravel this complexity, to
understand its implications and to discover principles or points of view that will render it
comprehensible. To do so will require an abundant flow of information from space and the
capability to use it effectively. Observational and informational systems must be created to
interact effectively: "The satellite and the computer are a natural partnership; one provides
data, the other makes sense of it."3 Thus an effective model for scientific research in space
will emphasize the acquisition, management, and use of information from space to enhance
human knowledge and understanding. It will enable us to focus on this critical commodity of
the contemporary world.
The acceptance of this governing objective for scientific research in space will
assist in establishing priorities. It is evident that such priorities are necessary because
current opportunities for scientific research in space demand far more resources than are
likely to be available in even the most optimistic scenario.
Table 1.1 summarizes the entire spectrum of NASA space science missions now
active or expected by NASA planners to be launched before the year 2000. Figure 1.1
shows that the expected increase in funding required to complete present missions and to
implement and launch the missions already approved for new starts exceeds an annual
growth rate of 15 percent. Future new starts will require an even greater rate of increase in
the budget for space research.
The increased funds required to maintain or expand the program may not be
available. In commenting on the NASA budget for fiscal year 1991, the Appropriations
Conference Committee of the 101st Congress observed:4
It is essential that the agency recognize that the budget crisis is only
beginning. The five-year budget agreement assumes an annual growth rate
in domestic discretionary spending . . . of approximately five to seven
percent. That fact suggests that the maximum annual growth in NASA's
budget cannot exceed eight to ten percent.
TABLE 1.1 NASA Scientific Missions—1990 to 2000
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Setting Priorities for Space Research: Opportunities and Imperatives (Chapter 1)
Active Planned
as of for 1991
Field December 1990 to 2000 Total
Space physics 6 17 23
Planetary and lunar science 8 4 12
Earth sciences 2 24 26
Astrophysics 6 9 15
Life sciences 0 4 4
TOTAL 22 58 80
SOURCE: General Accounting Office. 1989. Space Operations: Listing of NASA
Scientific Missions, 1980-2000, GAO/IMTEC-89-46FS (U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C.) April.
FIGURE 1.1 Funding (in $million) required to maintain the space research program, including missions now in
flight and new starts already approved. SOURCE: Office of Space Science and Applications, NASA.
Thus it appears clear that NASA and the nation will have to choose among scientific
research initiatives and other components of the space program. In recognition of these
realities, the Advisory Committee on the Future of the U.S. Space Program recommended
that science activity be "the fulcrum of the entire civil space effort." As justification, the
committee argued that5
. . . the space science program warrants the highest priority for funding. It, in
our judgment, ranks above space stations, aerospace planes, manned
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Setting Priorities for Space Research: Opportunities and Imperatives (Chapter 1)
missions to the planets, and many other major pursuits which often receive
greater visibility. It is this endeavor in science that enables basic discovery
and understanding, that uncovers the fundamental knowledge of our own
planet to improve the quality of life for all people on earth, and that
stimulates the education of the scientists needed for the future. Science
gives vision, imagination, and direction to the space program and as such
should be vigorously protected and permitted to grow, holding at or
somewhat above its present fraction of NASA's budget even as the overall
space budget grows.
If this recommendation is followed and there is a stronger focus on space research,
then the necessity for making difficult choices will be even more urgent. There are many
opportunities in space research, and thus we need a procedure by which to select those
that are most valuable. The community of scientists engaged in scientific research in space
should reach a consensus on priorities and thereby contribute to the formulation of an
agenda for space research and for the space program. Such an agenda and the priorities it
represents will need to respond to national needs and to the larger priorities of the national
agenda.
The two key questions in space research, as in most continuing endeavors, are:
What should we do? How should we do it? As argued above, the priorities that determine
what we choose to do reflect our values. The methods we then adopt, and often our
successes, are also determined by the vision and purpose that guide our activities. Careful
consideration and formulation of assumptions and priorities for the scientific research
program and the overall space program that supports it will enable us to better serve
national goals, compel effective action, achieve the maximum return on our national
investment, and inspire our citizenry.
NOTES
1. Byerly, Radford, Jr. 1989. "Introduction," in Space Policy Reconsidered, R.
Byerly, Jr., ed. (Westview Press, Boulder, Colo.) p. 3.
2. The White House, National Space Policy, November 2, 1989.
3. "What's a Heaven For?," The Economist 319 (June 15, 1991): 3.
4. Appropriations Conference Committee of the 101st Congress. 1990. Conference
Report 101-900 to Accompany H.R. 5158, "Making Appropriations for the Departments of
Veterans Affairs, Housing and Urban Development, and Independent Agencies for FY
1991" (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.) p. 41.
5. Advisory Committee on the Future of the U.S. Space Program. 1990. Summary
and Principal Recommendations on the Future of the U.S. Space Program (Superintendent
of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.).
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