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Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties
FIGURE 3-6 One example from the eastern North Atlantic of the climate-nuclide connection. Blue lines are smoothed 14C data from Figure 3-5(b); red line is the drift ice record from North Atlantic based on hematite-stained grains (HSG). Up-pointing peaks are relatively colder, possibly by about 1°C, compared to the mean. SOURCE: Adapted from Bond et al. (2001).
2001; Hong et al., 2003; Hu et al., 2003; Niggemann et al., 2003; Poore et al., 2003).
It appears from such correlations that the solar-driven nuclide variations impact climate, at least on a regional scale, enough to leave an imprint in the proxy data (Figure 3-6). These results suggest either that the nuclide-solar irradiance connection is more direct and robust than models suggest, that there are amplified responses of the climate to solar irradiance variations, or both. Potentially, such amplifications include solar ultraviolet impacts on stratospheric ozone and associated tropospheric dynamical responses (e.g., Haigh, 2003; Labitzke and Matthes, 2003; Shindell et al., 2001a, 2003), cosmic ray influences on cloud formation (Carslaw et al., 2002), or changes in North Atlantic meridional overturning (Bond et al., 2001).
LAST 1000 YEARS
Recent theoretical modeling studies have evaluated the role of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing on climate changes over the past one or more centuries. Detailed attribution studies have focused on the appar-