Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties

4	RETHINKING THE GLOBAL RADIATIVE FORCING CONCEPT	83
	The Current Concept,	83
	Global Mean Radiative Forcing with Adjusted Tropospheric Temperatures,	87
	Global Mean Radiative Forcing at the Surface,	89
	Regional Radiative Forcing,	92
	Regional Nonradiative Forcing,	93
	Ocean Heat Content,	98
5	UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURE CLIMATE FORCINGS	100
	Future Emissions of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols,	100
	Solar Variability,	113
	Land-Use and Land-Cover Change,	113
	Abrupt Climate Change,	115
6	RESEARCH APPROACHES TO FURTHERING UNDERSTANDING	117
	Observations of Radiative Forcing and Response,	117
	Laboratory and Process Studies for Aerosols,	132
	Atmospheric Reanalysis and Data Assimilation,	133
	Relating Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols to Sources,	134
	Climate Forcing and Response over Earth’s History,	138
	Climate Models,	140
7	RECOMMENDATIONS	144
	Expanding the Radiative Forcing Concept,	145
	Addressing Key Uncertainties,	148
	Improving the Observational Record,	152
	Addressing Policy Needs,	155
	REFERENCES	159
	APPENDIXES
A	BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS AND STAFF	191
B	STATEMENT OF TASK	197
C	GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS	198