Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by funding from the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics), the National Nuclear Security Administration, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency under Contract No. HDTRA-04-C-0004 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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COMMITTEE ON THE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR EARTH-PENETRATOR AND OTHER WEAPONS
JOHN F. AHEARNE,
Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society,
Chair
LYNN R. ANSPAUGH,
University of Utah School of Medicine
RODNEY C. EWING,
University of Michigan
STEVEN A. FETTER,
University of Maryland
RICHARD L. GARWIN,
IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Fellow Emeritus
SYDELL P. GOLD,
Science Applications International Corporation
EUGENE G. GREWIS,
Tijeras, New Mexico
THEODORE M. HARDEBECK,
Science Applications International Corporation
RAYMOND JEANLOZ,
University of California at Berkeley
WILLIAM J. PATTERSON,
Albuquerque, New Mexico
GLORIA S. PATTON,
Lake Oswego, Oregon
HEINZ W. SCHMITT,
Albuquerque, New Mexico
EUGENE SEVIN,
Lyndhurst, Ohio
C. BRUCE TARTER,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
Director Emeritus
ROBERT H. WERTHEIM,
San Diego, California
Staff
JAMES E. KILLIAN, Study Director,
National Materials Advisory Board
MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer,
Naval Studies Board
SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Coordinator,
Naval Studies Board
IAN M. CAMERON, Research Associate,
Naval Studies Board
SIDNEY G. REED, JR., Consultant,
Naval Studies Board
Preface
Section 1033 of the Bob Stump National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2003 (Public Law 107-314) directed the Secretary of Defense to request that the National Research Council study the anticipated health and environmental effects of nuclear earth-penetrator and other weapons. Upon request from the Department of Defense, the National Research Council established the Committee on the Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons (see Appendix A). This report is the product of that committee of technical experts. Some of the material used for this study is classified, and the committee has produced an unclassified report plus a separate classified annex.
Nuclear earth-penetrator weapons, such as those described as robust nuclear earth penetrator (RNEP) weapons, are controversial. Part of the controversy has been about whether a nuclear earth-penetrator could be designed to defeat a deeply buried hard target but not cause any collateral surface damage, such as that attributable to fallout. Another question is whether chemical and biological agents can be defeated by conventional weapons. The committee developed its report in what it believes is a logical approach to address these issues.
To gather information for this report, the committee received briefings from the Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of Energy (DOE), congressional staff, nongovernmental organizations, and individuals, in classified and open sessions. This input included information on potential targets, such as their numbers, location, functions, hardening characteristics, and contents. The committee also received information on after-action investigations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The committee requested that the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) estimate the numbers of casualties for a range of nuclear weapons’ yields and depths of burst for several target areas. Calculations also were done in order to generate lethality contours to estimate numbers of casualties resulting from attacks with non-nuclear weapons on facilities producing or storing weapons of mass destruction.
The committee thanks the many briefers who presented information essential to the writing of this report. They are listed in the agendas provided in Appendix B. Donald Linger of DTRA was consistently helpful, and his deep knowledge greatly assisted our work. Todd Hann, Andrew Grose, Brian Hall, and Michael Phillips of DTRA and Theodore Harvey and Frank Serduke of the LLNL devoted substantial effort to produce the calculations that the committee needed. The committee also thanks Milton Minneman of the DOD, our project liaison, who assisted in obtaining reports needed for the study.
Finally, the committee thanks the dedicated staff of the National Research Council: Dixie Gordon, who resolved the many difficulties associated with handling classified material; Susan Campbell, who capably saw to the logistics for our many meetings over a short period of time and helped with report production; Ian Cameron, who supported the conduct of the meetings and also the production of the report; and, in particular, our study director, James Killian, who kept the study on track and provided invaluable support to the committee members and to me.
John F. Ahearne, Chair
Committee on the Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
James L. Bacon, Pine Bluff, Arkansas,
Sidney D. Drell, Stanford University,
Daniel J. Fink, Potomac, Maryland,
David R. Franz, Midwest Research Institute,
Thomas A. Griffy, University of Texas at Austin,
Michael M. May, Stanford University,
Fred Mettler, Jr., University of New Mexico,
Richard Mies, Science Applications International Corporation,
Bruce Napier, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and
George M. Whitesides, Harvard University.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Hyla S. Napadensky, Napadensky Energetics, Inc. (retired), and Chris G. Whipple, ENVIRON International Corporation. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.