AVOIDING SURPRISE IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES

Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances AVOIDING SURPRISE IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This is a report of work supported by Contract HHM402-04-C-0015 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09605-7 Limited copies of this report are available from: Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Room 940 National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3118 Additional copies are available from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Lockbox 285 Washington, DC 20055 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances COMMITTEE ON DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS AND REVIEWS RUTH A. DAVID, Chair, ANSER, Inc., Arlington, Virginia STEVEN R.J. BRUECK, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque STEPHEN W. DREW, Science Partners, LLC, Summit, New Jersey ALAN H. EPSTEIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge ROBERT A. FUHRMAN, Lockheed Corporation (retired), Pebble Beach, California SHARON C. GLOTZER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan DIANE E. GRIFFIN, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland J. JEROME HOLTON, Defense Group, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia MICHAEL R. LADISCH, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana DARRELL D.E. LONG, University of California, Santa Cruz FREDERICK R. LOPEZ, Raytheon Company, Goleta, California RICHARD M. OSGOOD, JR., Columbia University, New York STEWART D. PERSONICK, Private Consultant, Bernardsville, New Jersey ALTON D. ROMIG, JR., Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico S. SHANKAR SASTRY, University of California, Berkeley JAMES B. SMITH, Raytheon Company, Tucson, Arizona CAMILLO J. TAYLOR, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia DIANNE S. WILEY, The Boeing Company, Arlington, Virginia Staff MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead Board Director DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director CARTER W. FORD, Research Associate LANITA R. JONES, Senior Program Assistant

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances Preface The development and writing of this report presented considerable challenges in terms of both the study schedule and the need to avoid conveying sensitive U.S. vulnerabilities to potential adversaries. Meeting both challenges has been difficult for the study committee and staff, but every effort was made to respond to the stated need of the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for maximum openness. I wish to express my appreciation to the members of the committee for their contributions to the preparation of this report. The committee is also grateful to the staff of the Technology Warning Division of the DIA for its sponsorship and active participation throughout the study. The committee greatly appreciates the support and assistance of National Research Council staff members Michael Clarke, Daniel Talmage, LaNita Jones, and Carter Ford in the production of this report. Ruth A. David, Chair Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Bishnu Atal (NAS, NAE), AT&T Laboratories (retired), Randy Katz (NAE), University of California, Berkeley, Leslie Kenne, LK Associates, Joshua Lederberg (NAS, IOM), The Rockefeller University, John Lyons (NAE), U.S. Army Research Laboratory (retired), Louis Marquet, Consultant, S. Thomas Picraux, Arizona State University, and Eugene Sevin (NAE), Consultant. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Hermann, Global Technology Partners. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   TECHNOLOGY WARNING: MOTIVATION AND CHALLENGE   9      Introduction,   9      Study Origin,   10      Globalization Is Reshaping the Technology Playing Field,   11      Commercialization Is Changing the Tempo of Technological Innovation,   12      The Technology Warning Challenge,   15      Limitations of This Study,   18      References,   18 2   COMMITTEE METHODOLOGY   20      Key Features of the Methodology,   20      Foundation of the Methodology,   21      Identify,   22      Assess,   25      Accessibility,   25      Maturity,   25      Consequence,   26      Prioritize,   26      Task,   26      Using the Methodology in This Report,   27      Reference,   27

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances 3   CHALLENGES TO INFORMATION SUPERIORITY   28      Maintaining Information Superiority in the Face of Globalization and Commercialization,   29      Trusted Software,   30      Trusted Hardware and Foundries,   31      Supercomputing,   31      Ubiquitous Sensing, Computing, and Communications Systems,   32      Fusion of Computing and Communications with Other Novel Technologies,   32      Potential Observables That May Indicate Emerging Threats,   32      Basic Ways to Degrade or Neutralize Information Superiority,   34      Exploitation,   35      Corruption,   35      Disruption,   35      Destruction,   36      Analogies in Non-Warfighting Scenarios,   36      Committee Focus: Communications and Sensing Systems,   36      Potential Pathways for Disruption, Denial, or Degradation of Communications and Sensing Capabilities,   37      Identification and Assessment Steps of the Committee Methodology,   38      System/Network Attacks,   38      Sensor Attacks,   40      Summary,   42      References,   43 4   FUTURE THREATS TO U.S. AIRPOWER IN URBAN WARFARE   45      Introduction,   45      Airpower in Urban Warfare,   46      Challenges to U.S. Airpower,   47      Offensive Techniques That May Be Employed by an Adversary,   48      Defensive Techniques That May Be Employed by an Adversary,   49      Committee Focus: Systems That Can Degrade U.S. Airpower,   50      Man-Portable Air Defense Systems,   50      Milli to Micro Air Vehicles and Missiles,   51      Identification and Assessment Steps of Committee Methodology,   53      Increased Range and/or Reduced Signature,   53      Enhanced Guidance, Navigation, and/or Targeting,   53      Enhanced Lethality,   53      Counter-BLUE,   53      Summary,   60      References,   60 5   COMBATANT IDENTIFICATION IN URBAN WARFARE   62      Introduction,   62      Key Features of Foreign Urban Warfare,   62      Committee Focus: Capability to Discriminate Between Enemy Combatants and Noncombatants,   63

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances      Identification and Assessment Steps of the Committee Methodology,   64      Misdirected Target Designation,   64      Sensor Spoofing,   64      Hiding of Targets,   66      Inexpensive Supply of Raw Materials for Camouflage,   71      Summary,   71      References,   71 6   BIOTECHNOLOGY TRENDS RELEVANT TO WARFARE INITIATIVES   73      Introduction,   73      Watching People Think,   74      Scientific Methods That May Predict Behaviors,   74      Committee Focus: Challenges to Communications Superiority,   75      Covert Communications via DNA,   76      Covert Communications via Bacteriorhodopsin,   77      Committee Focus: Challenges to Battle Readiness,   78      Noroviruses,   79      Avian Influenza,   79      Synthesis of Decoys,   80      Summary,   81      References,   82 7   FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   83      Collaboration with External Scientific and Technical Communities,   83      Indicators Relating to Globalization and Commercialization,   84      Need for Disciplined Methodology,   85      Conclusion,   85     APPENDIXES         A  Biographical Sketches of Committee Members   89     B  Presentations to the Committee   97     C  Background Material for Chapter 1   99     D  Background Material for Chapter 3   103     E  Background Material for Chapter 6   114

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Charts FIGURES Figure 1-1   Shares of total world R&D, 2003,   12 Figure 1-2   U.S. R&D funding by source, 1953–2003,   14 Figure 2-1   Concepts constituting the basic framework for U.S. military capability as defined by Joint Vision 2020,   22 Figure 5-1   TransScreen, power holographic projection creates the illusion of life-size, holographic images,   67 Figure 5-2   Example of a projected three-dimensional image that appears to be floating above the hand,   67 Figure 5-3   Life-size hologram,   68 Figure E-1   Spatial and temporal resolution capabilities of different neuroimaging modalities,   118 TABLES Table 1-1   The Changing Nature of Defense Technology,   13 Table 1-2   The Nature of Innovation Is Changing,   13 Table 1-3   Challenges Identified for the National Nanotechnology Initiative,   17 Table 3-1   Potential Observables and Sources of Information on Potential Threats to Communications Capabilities,   33 Table 3-2   Examples of Sensor Modalities and Their Potential Utility,   41

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances BOXES Box ES-1   Statement of Task,   2 Box ES-2   Report Statement of Task,   2 Box ES-3   Proposed Methodology for Technology Warning,   4 Box 1-1   Candidate Technologies Likely to Impact National Security by the 2015 Time Frame, Identified by a Panel of Experts,   16 Box 2-1   Relevant Definitions from Joint Vision 2020 Serving as Foundation for Assessment Methodology,   23 Box 2-2   Proposed Methodology for Technology Warning,   24 CHARTS Chart 2-1   Example of Technology Assessment Chart,   24 Chart 3-1   Technology Assessment: Electromagnetic Pulse Generators,   38 Chart 3-2   Technology Assessment: Electromagnetic Pulse Generators,   39 Chart 3-3   Technology Assessment: Radio-Frequency Jammers,   39 Chart 3-4   Technology Assessment: Modular Network Nodes,   39 Chart 3-5   Technology Assessment: Malicious Code,   40 Chart 3-6   Capability Identification: Sensor Jamming,   41 Chart 3-7   Capability Identification: Camouflage,   43 Chart 3-8   Capability Identification: Sensor Spoofing,   43 Chart 4-1   Technology Assessment: Jet Engines,   54 Chart 4-2   Technology Assessment: Storable Liquid Propellant and Micro Rocket Engines,   54 Chart 4-3   Technology Assessment. Higher-Performance Small Rocket Engines,   55 Chart 4-4   Technology Assessment: Nanoscale Surface Machining,   55 Chart 4-5   Technology Assessment: Electronically Tuned Surface Coatings,   55 Chart 4-6   Technology Assessment: Negative Index of Refraction Materials,   55 Chart 4-7   Technology Assessment: Low-Cost, Uncooled, Low-Noise Infrared Detector Arrays,   56 Chart 4-8   Technology Assessment: Narrowband, Tunable Frequency Agile, Imaging Infrared Optical Filters,   56 Chart 4-9   Technology Assessment: High-Accuracy Microelectromechanical Systems Gyros and Accelerometers,   56 Chart 4-10   Technology Assessment: Automated, Ad Hoc, Cellular Phone/Computer Systems,   57 Chart 4-11   Technology Assessment: High-Speed Processor Chips and Mega-Flash Memories,   57 Chart 4-12   Technology Assessment: Large Geographic and Economic Web Databases,   57 Chart 4-13   Technology Assessment: Increased Energy Density or Slow-Burning Energetic Materials,   57 Chart 4-14   Technology Assessment: High-Power, Low-Cost Microwave Radio-Frequency Chips and Arrays,   58 Chart 4-15   Technology Assessment: Very Low Cost Radio-Frequency Proximity Fuses,   58

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances Chart 4-16   Technology Assessment: Increased-Speed Digital Signal Processor and Processor Chips,   58 Chart 4-17   Technology Assessment: Very High Pulse Power Systems,   58 Chart 4-18   Technology Assessment: Bioagents,   59 Chart 4-19   Technology Assessment: Tactical Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse,   59 Chart 4-20   Technology Assessment: Very Low Cost, Compact Near-Infrared Images,   59 Chart 4-21   Technology Assessment: Wireless Technology, Frequency Modulation Techniques, Global Positioning System Crypto Capture,   59 Chart 4-22   Technology Assessment: Multistatic Systems,   60 Chart 4-23   Technology Assessment: Strong Commercial Encryption for Personal Digital Assistants and Cellular Phones,   60 Chart 5-1   Technology Assessment: Tunable Lasers,   65 Chart 5-2   Technology Assessment: False Radio-Frequency Identification Signals,   65 Chart 5-3   Technology Assessment: Projection of Realistic-Looking Real-Time Optical or Infrared Images,   68 Chart 5-4   Technology Assessment: Adaptive Materials,   69 Chart 5-5   Technology Assessment: Bacteriorhodopsin,   70 Chart 5-6   Technology Assessment: Transgenic Crops,   71 Chart 6-1   Technology Assessment: Exploitation of DNA Databases for Covert Communications,   77 Chart 6-2   Technology Assessment: Bacteriorhodopsin for Holographic Messaging and Development of Advanced Holographic Technologies,   79 Chart 6-3   Technology Assessment: Development and Distribution of Norovirus Organisms,   80 Chart 6-4   Technology Assessment: Development and Distribution of Avian Influenza Organisms,   80 Chart 6-5   Technology Assessment: Development and Distribution of Organisms as Decoys,   81

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances Acronyms ASIC application-specific integrated circuit BOLD blood-oxygen-level dependent C4ISR command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance C&C computing and communications CMOS complementary metal-oxide semiconductor COTS commercial off-the-shelf DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DIA Defense Intelligence Agency DNA deoxyribonucleic acid DOD Department of Defense ECM electronic countermeasures EEG electroencephalography EMP electromagnetic pulse EMU extravehicular mobility unit EPROM electron paramagnetic resonance oxygen mapping ERP event-related potential FCS Future Combat Systems FLIR forward-looking infrared fMRI functional magnetic resonance imaging GDP gross domestic product

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances GOTS government off-the-shelf GPS Global Positioning System IC intelligence community IFF identification friend or foe IP Internet Protocol IR infrared ISR intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance LED light emitting diode MANPADS man-portable air defense system MAV micro air vehicle MD-5 message-digest algorithm MEG magnetoencephalography MEMS microelectromechanical systems MRI magnetic resonance imaging NIC National Intelligence Council NIRS near-infrared spectroscopic imaging NRC National Research Council NSF National Science Foundation OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development R&D research and development RCS radar cross section RF radio frequency RFID radio-frequency identification RPG rocket-propelled grenade S&T science and technology SAR synthetic aperture radar SHA secure hash algorithm SQUID superconducting quantum interference device TWI The Welding Institute, Ltd. UAV unmanned aerial vehicle UCAV unmanned combat air vehicle UV ultraviolet VTOL vertical takeoff and landing WMD weapons of mass destruction