Appendix B
Case Study Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program

This appendix provides case study examples of metrics for a range of program elements drawn from the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). Each case study is focused on specific CCSP questions and milestones and includes a rationale and background information needed to inform the development of metrics. Specific process, input, output, outcome, and impact metrics developed by the committee appear at the end of each case study (Tables B.1-B.8). Following the case studies the metrics are grouped together (Tables B.9-B.13) to facilitate comparison and help the committee assess the difficulty of creating and applying them to other parts of the CCSP.

The case studies were created to inform the committee’s thinking about metrics. A selection is presented here, in draft form, to show how and why the committee developed general metrics for the CCSP (Box 5.1). No attempt was made to revise the case study metrics after the general metrics were created. The emphasis is on presenting the committee’s thought process, not on recommending specific metrics for CCSP program elements.

CASE STUDY THEMES

The committee derived eight key themes from the milestones, products, and payoffs within the CCSP Strategic Plan and developed one or two case studies for each. These themes also conform to the conventional sequence of scientific investigation, starting with the development of new or better observations and ending with improved use of information to advance knowledge or better serve decision making. The themes are:



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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Appendix B Case Study Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program This appendix provides case study examples of metrics for a range of program elements drawn from the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). Each case study is focused on specific CCSP questions and milestones and includes a rationale and background information needed to inform the development of metrics. Specific process, input, output, outcome, and impact metrics developed by the committee appear at the end of each case study (Tables B.1-B.8). Following the case studies the metrics are grouped together (Tables B.9-B.13) to facilitate comparison and help the committee assess the difficulty of creating and applying them to other parts of the CCSP. The case studies were created to inform the committee’s thinking about metrics. A selection is presented here, in draft form, to show how and why the committee developed general metrics for the CCSP (Box 5.1). No attempt was made to revise the case study metrics after the general metrics were created. The emphasis is on presenting the committee’s thought process, not on recommending specific metrics for CCSP program elements. CASE STUDY THEMES The committee derived eight key themes from the milestones, products, and payoffs within the CCSP Strategic Plan and developed one or two case studies for each. These themes also conform to the conventional sequence of scientific investigation, starting with the development of new or better observations and ending with improved use of information to advance knowledge or better serve decision making. The themes are:

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program improve data sets in space and time; improve estimates of physical quantities; improve understanding of processes; improve representation of processes; improve assessment of uncertainty, predictability, or predictive capabilities; improve synthesis and assessment to inform; improve the assessment and management of risk; and improve decision support for adaptive management and policy making. Case study examples of themes 3 and 8 appear in Chapter 5. Theme 1: Improve Data Sets in Space and Time Solar Forcing of Climate Related CCSP Questions, Milestones, and Products. Question 4.1.5: “To what extent are climate changes as observed in instrumental and paleoclimate records related to volcanic and solar variability, and what mechanisms are involved in producing climate responses to these natural forcings?”1 Rationale. Understanding how human activities are altering the Earth’s climate requires an understanding of the role of natural variability in climate forcing. Therefore, it is essential to know how the Sun’s energy output varies and how these variations affect the Earth’s climate. Background. Nine independent satellite measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) have been made since 1978. These data show that the TSI has changed during recent 11-year solar cycles with 0.1 percent amplitude (Figure B.1). However, the lack of overlapping instruments having in-flight sensitivity tracking precludes detection of any long-term variations of the Sun’s TSI on climate time scales, if any are present. The construction of a long-term irradiance composite depends crucially on assumptions made about the degradation of radiometers that lack in-flight tracking capability. Different assumptions yield two different time series. For example, note the two different trends in the energy input at solar minimum in Figure B.1. 1   Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., p. 43.

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program TABLE B.1 Example Metrics for Case Study on Solar Forcing of Climate Type Example Metrics Process • Is there a plan for continuous measurement of other climate variables related to solar irradiance to enable discernment and quantification of the physical, chemical, and biological links between solar irradiance changes and climate? • Is a plan for periodic five-year review of solar measurements available that includes the following: —Are the measurements being made with sufficient precision and accuracy? —Are the measurement plans robust with respect to the requirements for continuity and/or calibration? Input • Are the instruments and platforms required for deployment of a TSI measurement system available? • Are the measurements to be made by these instruments relatable to those made using previous technologies? • Yearly reviews of the following: —Sufficient commitment of resources to allow the planned program to be carried out —Sufficient resources being devoted to the development of climate models to utilize the solar measurements properly • Does the best scientific evidence indicate that the resources being devoted to the solar radiation measurements are appropriate, given our need to understand the climate record and predict future climate changes? Output • Publication of a peer-reviewed, multiyear record of TSI that is relatable to existing records • Documented, published records of how solar variability has contributed directly and indirectly to past climate change • Quantitative links between measures of solar activity (e.g., sunspot number, solar wind) and solar irradiance at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere Outcome • Improved ability to forecast non-irradiance-related effects of solar activity • Forecasts of future solar variability and predictions of its climate effect are available for comparison with other climate drivers to determine the nature of climate change • Recognition of direct and indirect mechanisms by which solar variations can influence climate Impact • Public understanding of the importance of solar variation in climate change relative to other radiative forcing (e.g., greenhouse gases) is improved

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program FIGURE B.1 TSI database and two different composite records showing a time series (1978-2004) of measured solar energy input per unit area to the Earth system from various instruments: Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), Variability of Solar Irradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO), Hickey-Frieden radiometer (HF), Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), and Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD). An overlap in the middle of the record between ACRIM I and ACRIM II or use of a technique with absolute calibration would have made it possible to determine whether there is a trend in TSI at solar minimum. SOURCE: Fröhlich, C., and J. Lean, 2004, Solar radiative output and its variations: Evidence and mechanism, Astronomy and Astrophysics Reviews, 12, 273–320. Copyright 2004; used with kind permission of Springer Science and Business Media.

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Aerosols and Their Role in Climate Forcing Related CCSP Questions, Milestones, and Products. Question 3.1: “What are the climate-relevant chemical, microphysical, and optical properties, and spatial and temporal distributions, of human-caused and naturally occurring aerosols?”2 Milestones, products, and payoffs include (1) improved description of the global distributions of aerosols and their properties; (2) empirically tested evaluation of the capabilities of current models to link emissions to (a) global aerosol distributions and (b) the chemical and radiative properties (and their uncertainties) of aerosols; and (3) better estimates of the radiative forcing of climate change for different aerosol types and the uncertainties associated with those estimates.3 Rationale. One of the largest uncertainties in climate research is the specification of aerosol properties and their role in direct climate forcing (Figure B.2). The challenge is to adequately characterize the nature and occurrence of atmospheric aerosols and include their effects in models to reduce uncertainties in climate prediction. Background. Because aerosols (1) originate from a variety of sources, (2) are distributed across a wide spectrum of particle sizes, and (3) have atmospheric lifetimes that are much shorter than those of most greenhouse gases, their concentrations and composition have great spatial and temporal variability. Satellite-based measurements of aerosols are necessary but not sufficient for acquiring an adequate information base upon which progress in understanding the role of aerosols in climate can be built. In situ measurements and process-level studies are necessary to reduce uncertainties in both direct and indirect forcing. The CCSP strategic plan calls for expanded use of “space-based, airborne, and ground-based instruments and laboratory studies to provide better data for aerosols …,” particularly to improve knowledge of spatial distribution and temporal variation of aerosols and precursor gases and of physical, chemical, and optical processes of aerosols; and to distinguish natural from anthropogenic aerosol.4 These objectives illustrate the need for basic science information to assess the net radiative effect of aerosols. 2   Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., p. 29. 3   Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., p. 33. 4   Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., p. 32.

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program FIGURE B.2 Global annual mean radiative forcing due to a number of agents for the period from preindustrial times (1750) to the present (about 2000). Most of the forcing estimates associated with aerosols have a very low level of scientific understanding, making their estimates highly uncertain. SOURCE: Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., p. 16; adapted from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I, 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., p. 392. Used with permission from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Climate Change Science Program. TABLE B.2 Example Metrics for Case Study on Aerosols and Their Role in Climate Forcing Type Example Metrics Process • Does a structure exist for the science community to evaluate the adequacy of existing and planned measurement programs concerned with aerosol distribution and radiative properties? • Is there a peer-reviewed five-year plan, updatable every five years, describing where and how measurements will be carried out that link aerosol distribution and chemistry to direct and indirect radiative forcing? • Are the requirements defined for quantifying spatial and temporal variability in planned missions? • Is a mechanism in place to take account of any surprises or new insights in the planning of new measurement campaigns?

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Type Example Metrics Input • To what extent do measurements have sufficient accuracy, precision, and completeness to answer the high-priority questions on aerosols and climate? • What resources are being devoted to these measurements? • Are the resources being expended on climate science research being allocated in an optimal manner (i.e., measurements versus models, space measurements versus surface or airborne measurements)? • Does the best scientific evidence indicate that the resources being devoted to solar radiation measurements are appropriate, given our need to understand the climate record and predict future climate changes? Output • Well-described and demonstrated relationships between aerosol distribution and radiative forcing • Forecasts of future aerosol distribution and consequences for regional climate based on scenarios of future aerosol emissions Outcome • To what extent are the measurements being used to answer the high-priority climate questions that motivated them? • Are the aerosol measurements together with other aerosol research resulting in better understanding of the uncertainties in climate projections due to direct and indirect aerosol processes? • The program leads to regulation of aerosol emissions Impact • Regional air quality is improved as a result of aerosol emission regulations Theme 2: Improve Estimates of Physical Quantities Sea-Level Rise Related CCSP Questions, Milestones, and Products. Question 4.2.3: “What are the projected contributions from different components of the climate system to future sea-level changes, what are the uncertainties in the projections, and how can they be reduced?”5 The associated research activity is “improved representation of processes (e.g., thermal expansion, ice sheets, water storage, coastal subsidence) in climate models that are required for simulating and projecting sea-level changes.”6 Rationale. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have highlighted considerable uncertainty about the causes of the sea-level rise over the past century. A number of factors can contribute to 5   Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., pp. 45–46. 6   Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., p. 46.

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program sea-level rise, including ocean thermal expansion, melting of permanent snow cover and mountain glaciers, decreases in groundwater storage, and decreased volume of polar ice sheets. The contributions of ocean thermal expansion are the best constrained, but there is considerable uncertainty about the contributions from groundwater and the Greenland ice sheet. Even the sign of the contribution of the largest freshwater reservoir, the Antarctic ice sheet, is unknown. Background. The magnitude of sea-level change over the past 100 to 150 years is reasonably well known, owing to a number of observations around the Earth. However, stations give sometimes conflicting measurements, and it is necessary to track changes regionally and over shorter time scales. Integration of measurements with models is essential to estimate the volume of freshwater reservoirs, to determine how this has changed, and to project future changes. Improved estimates of physical quantities are also implicitly required to improve models. Making progress in this research area will require observations (e.g., sea level, geodetic reference frame), estimates of physical quantities (e.g., ice sheet and glacier volume), integration of historical and new information, and improved models to predict sea-level change. The ice sheet volume can be estimated from a number of individual ground (e.g., snow accumulation, ice flow) and satellite-based (e.g., altimetry) measurements, as well as from models relating volume and elevation change. TABLE B.3 Example Metrics for Case Study on Sea-Level Rise Type Example Metrics Process • Is there a coordinated, strategic plan that the agencies use to guide research programs, set priorities, and support budget requests? Is the plan responsive to decision support needs? • Is there a coordinated, global strategic plan for measurement systems that agencies use to guide new investments, justify ongoing networks, and support budget requests? • Do the plan and the program have an appropriate balance of in situ and space-based measurements? Are they well integrated? Input • Are there adequate, well-performing data and information systems? • Is the research taking advantage of emerging technology and system integration and stimulating the development of new measurement technologies? Output • How has the accuracy of measuring sea level and other priority global fluxes and reservoirs of water significantly improved as a result of the deployment of measurement systems for research? • Are the measurements of sufficient accuracy to inform assessments and policy?

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Type Example Metrics   • Have adequate means of assessing measurement accuracy at the scales of interest been developed? • Are research programs producing synthesized results addressing the components of sea-level rise? Outcome • Are the research results leading to lower uncertainties in the historical contributions to sea-level rise and thence to better projections of future sea-level rise? • Has significant progress been made on understanding the contributions to sea-level rise as a result of the measurement, process research, and modeling programs? • Do these projections adequately inform assessments and provide a basis for adaptive management and (inter)national policy making on mitigating the potential consequences of sea-level rise (e.g., impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems)? Impact • “No-build” zones established between structures (e.g., roads, railways, houses) and the shoreline protect communities from sea-level rise Theme 4: Improve Representation of Processes Climate-Vegetation Feedbacks Related CCSP Questions, Milestones, and Products. Question 8.1: “What are the most important feedbacks between ecological systems and global change (especially climate), and what are their quantitative relationships?”7 The CCSP product related directly to the improved representation of processes in models is, “Quantification of important feedbacks from ecological systems to climate and atmospheric composition to improve the accuracy of climate projections. This product will be needed to ensure inclusion of appropriate ecological components in future climate models.”8 Rationale. Our lack of knowledge about the nature of climate-vegetation interactions has hindered our ability to predict climate sensitivity and to understand the response of ecosystems to climate change. Background. Early studies of tropical deforestation called attention to the importance of vegetation in governing surface energy and moisture 7   Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., p. 84. 8   Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., p. 86.

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program fluxes.9 Climate, in turn, has a significant impact on vegetation. The importance of these effects prompted the development of a wide variety of climate models designed to include atmosphere-vegetation interactions, beginning with Dickinson (1984) and Dorman and Sellers (1989).10 However, climate-vegetation models are still in their infancy. A better understanding of the controls on vegetation distribution and character, including weather, climate, and the role of human activities (e.g., change in land use and land cover, creation of pollutants), is required to improve predictions of future vegetation distributions. We need a more explicit understanding of the complex interactions between diverse ecosystems and ecosystem components and their chemical as well as physical environment. An improved assessment of the importance of spatial and temporal variability in ecosystem character and an ability to address multiple spatial scales will also be required if we are to quantify changes that will influence moisture and energy budgets. All of these factors require improved field and controlled-environment facilities and long-term observing sites to quantify these interactions. An improved representation of these processes is the key to improved climate-vegetation models. In addition, opportunities to validate the models, perhaps through vegetation records from past climates, will be required if we are to gain confidence in the model predictions. 9   Dickinson, R.E., and A. Henderson-Sellers, 1988, Modelling tropical deforestation: A study of GCM land-surface parameterizations, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 114, 439–462; Henderson-Sellers, A., and V. Gornitz, 1984, Possible climatic impacts of land cover transformations, with particular emphasis on tropical deforestation, Climatic Change, 6, 231–257. 10   Dickinson, R.E., 1984, Modelling evapotranspiration for three-dimensional global climate models, in Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, J.E. Hansen and T. Takahashi, eds., Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Volume 5, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 58–72; Dorman, J.L., and P.J. Sellers, 1989, A global climatology of albedo, roughness length and stomatal resistance for atmospheric general circulation models as represented by the simple biosphere model (SiB), Journal of Applied Meteorology, 28, 833–855.

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program TABLE B.4 Example Metrics for Case Study on Climate-Vegetation Feedbacks Type Example Metrics Process • Is a functioning peer review process in place involving scientists, managers, and other stakeholders? Are there timetables for periodic peer review of results? • Recognized leadership that enables interaction between diverse communities of scientists • A five-year plan, revisited every five years, to assess progress and set priorities through peer review for the following: —Implementation of experiments, analysis, and modeling designed to increase understanding of and confidence in the linkages between vegetation and environmental change —Implementation of experiments, analysis, and modeling designed to improve prediction of climate change and variability at a regional level with the resolution and accuracy needed for vegetation studies —Development of field and controlled-environment facilities and long-term ecological observing stations designed to improve understanding and quantification of vegetation-climate interactions • An ability to revisit the planning process in response to the development of new experimental methods and new insights from other experiments and fields of study • Are systems in place that will promote interaction, partnership, and communication between the ecosystem community and the climate and environmental research community, including scientists, agency managers, policy makers, and the public? Input • Sufficient intellectual foundation in multiple disciplines to support the research • Available funds for the development and maintenance of a sustainable scientific community and for promoting interaction, partnership, and communication between scientists, agency managers, policy makers, and the public • Annual research and development (R&D) expenditures are sufficient to implement and sustain the following: —Principal Investigators (PIs) and/or “centers” projects directed toward achieving the objectives —The investigation of ○ Competing ideas and interpretations of relationships between climate and vegetation ○ Innovative and comprehensive approaches for gathering or interpreting and modeling climate-vegetation interactions ○ The full breadth of relationships between environmental disturbance and ecosystems, including climate, pollutants, and land cover or land use ○ The resilience of ecosystems to environmental stress —Interpretive activities —Development of environmentally controlled facilities and long-term observing sites —Development of predictive models and synthesis of information —Integration of diverse research communities and existing research enterprises

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program TABLE B.10 Input Metrics for All Case Studies Theme Example Metrics 1 Solar Forcing • Are the instruments and platforms required for deployment of a TSI measurement system available? • Are the measurements to be made by these instruments relatable to those made using previous technologies? • Yearly reviews of the following: —Sufficient commitment of resources to allow the planned program to be carried out —Sufficient resources being devoted to the development of climate models to utilize the solar measurements properly • Does the best scientific evidence indicate that the resources being devoted to the solar radiation measurements are appropriate, given our need to understand the climate record and predict future climate changes?   Aerosol Forcing • To what extent do measurements have sufficient accuracy, precision, and completeness to answer the high-priority questions on aerosols and climate? • What resources are being devoted to these measurements? • Are the resources being expended on climate science research being allocated in an optimal manner (i.e., measurements versus models, space measurements versus surface or airborne measurements)? • Does the best scientific evidence indicate that the resources being devoted to solar radiation measurements are appropriate, given our need to understand the climate record and predict future climate changes? 2 Sea-Level Rise • Are there adequate, well-performing data and information systems? • Is the research taking advantage of emerging technology and system integration and stimulating the development of new measurement technologies? 3 Effect of CO2 on Land Carbon Balance • Is there sufficient theoretical basis for the design and interpretation of experiments? • Is the technology available to perform experiments assuming multiple, long-term (decadal) manipulations of plots of sufficient size to test hypotheses? • Are sufficient resources (people, dollars) available to implement and support a measurement network, modeling, and interpretive activities for the appropriate period of time (decades)? • Is there an identified stakeholder community to take advantage of scientific advances? 4 Climate-Vegetation Feedbacks • Sufficient intellectual foundation in multiple disciplines to support the research

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Theme Example Metrics   • Available funds for the development and maintenance of a sustainable scientific community and for promoting interaction, partnership, and communication between scientists, agency managers, policy makers, and the public • Annual R&D expenditures are sufficient to implement and sustain the following: —PIs and/or “centers” projects directed toward achieving the objectives —The investigation of ○ Competing ideas and interpretations of relationships between climate and vegetation ○ Innovative and comprehensive approaches for gathering or interpreting and modeling climate-vegetation interactions ○ The full breadth of relationships between environmental disturbance and ecosystems, including climate, pollutants, and land cover or land use ○ The resilience of ecosystems to environmental stress —Interpretive activities —Development of environmentally controlled facilities and long-term observing sites —Development of predictive models and synthesis of information —Integration of diverse research communities and existing research enterprises 5 Paleoclimate Time Series • Annual R&D expenditures are sufficient to implement and sustain: —PIs and/or “centers” projects directed toward achieving the objectives —The investigation of ○ Competing ideas and interpretations of proxy data ○ Innovative approaches for gathering or interpreting paleoclimate records ○ The full breadth of proxy types ○ The application of climate models with estimates of past radiative forcing —Interpretive activities • Funds available for the development and maintenance of a sustainable paleoclimate scientific community of sufficient depth and diversity • Do data of sufficient quantity and quality exist to support the analysis of historical (paleolithic) patterns of climate variability and change? 6 Human Health and Climate • Does a broad community of professionals and stakeholders required for assessment exist? • Are funds available for the development and maintenance of a sustainable climate and health scientific community of sufficient depth and diversity? • Are funds available for the assessment, including selection of participants, communication among participants and the larger community, preparation, and peer review? • Are funds available for distribution of the assessment and communication of conclusions to a wide audience? • Are historical climate, health, and environmental data available that are of sufficient quantity and quality to support the determination of historical patterns of climate-related health effects?

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Theme Example Metrics 7 Assessing, Preventing, and Managing Public Health Threats • Are funds available for the development and maintenance of a sustainable scientific community and for promoting interaction, partnership, and communication between scientists, agency managers, policy makers, and the public? • Are annual R&D expenditures sufficient to implement and sustain the following: —PIs and/or “centers” projects directed toward achieving the objectives —The investigation of ○ Competing ideas and interpretations of relationships between climate and health ○ Innovative and comprehensive approaches for gathering or interpreting and modeling disease outbreaks ○ The full breadth of relationships between environmental disturbance and health ○ Vulnerabilities of human populations ○ Resilience of communities and institutions —Interpretive activities —Development of a robust disease monitoring and surveillance system —Development of predictive models and synthesis of information • A “climate services” function that enables climate information and predictions to be used by the health community 8 Adaptive Management of Water Resources • Annual R&D expenditures are sufficient to implement and sustain the following: —PIs and/or “centers” projects directed toward achieving the objectives —The investigation of ○ Competing ideas and interpretations of causes ○ Competing interpretations of data ○ Innovative approaches for gathering or interpreting water resources data • Funds are available for the development and maintenance of a sustainable water resources scientific community of sufficient depth and diversity   Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Does a program exist that effectively sustains the needed analysis capability? • Funds are available for the development and maintenance of a sustainable scientific community capable of analyzing climate change scenarios and policy response • Historical climate, health, and environmental data are of sufficient quantity and quality to support the determination of historical patterns of climate-related effects • Funds are available to support the technology, monitoring systems, predictive models, and interpretive activities required to develop different climate-related scenarios and to support the assessment of relevant policy responses

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program TABLE B.11 Output Metrics for All Case Studies Theme Example Metrics 1 Solar Forcing • Publication of a peer-reviewed, multiyear record of TSI that is relatable to existing records • Documented, published records of how solar variability has contributed directly and indirectly to past climate change • Quantitative links between measures of solar activity (e.g., sunspot number, solar wind) and solar irradiance at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere   Aerosol Forcing • Well-described and demonstrated relationships between aerosol distribution and radiative forcing • Forecasts of future aerosol distribution and consequences for regional climate based on scenarios of future aerosol emissions 2 Sea-Level Rise • How has the accuracy of measuring sea level and other priority global fluxes and reservoirs of water significantly improved as a result of the deployment of measurement systems for research? • Are the measurements of sufficient accuracy to inform assessments and policy? • Have adequate means of assessing measurement accuracy at the scales of interest been developed? • Are research programs producing synthesized results addressing the components of sea-level rise? 3 Effect of CO2 on Land Carbon Balance • Peer-reviewed, published results generated for each site and synthesis activities across sites that identify the most important mechanisms at work • Production of a facility that (1) can be put into the field for years at a time and (2) can maintain atmospheric CO2 levels at a specific set point (e.g., 50 ppm [parts per million] above ambient levels), with a precision (averaged over 1 hour) of 5 ppm. For a subset of these systems, additional control over either atmospheric ozone levels, temperature (i.e., increase by 5°C compared to the control plot), soil moisture, or species diversity is required • Development of a suite of new measurement techniques that can detect carbon allocation patterns on time scales of (1) hours, (2) days to weeks, and (3) a growing season in response to external variables and photosynthetic rates of plants in control versus experimentally manipulated systems • Incorporation of relationships between photosynthetic rates, carbon allocation, and external and internal variables into process-based models that simulate patterns of photosynthetic response and allocation (on appropriate time scales for each process) and that can be tested against other observations as well as in other kinds of manipulated systems • Technology developed for rapid control of trace gas concentrations at high precision

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Theme Example Metrics 4 Climate-Vegetation Feedbacks • Experimental and observational data of sufficient quantity and quality to support the determination of climate-vegetation relationships • Well-described and demonstrated relationships between environment and vegetation • Climate and climate variability forecasts suitable for determining the future distribution of vegetation, with well-described sources of error and limitations • Vegetation character and distribution projections suitable for determining the impact of vegetation changes on climate • Published reports supporting the analysis of vegetation and climate relationships • Effectively selected, sufficiently accurate, peer-reviewed, published, and broadly accepted data and analysis on vegetation and environment relationships • Adequate community and infrastructure have been developed to support a program of monitoring, surveillance, and modeling of ecosystems • Periodic assessments of the state of the science • Well-described and demonstrated assessment of vegetation-climate interactions 5 Paleoclimate Time Series • Well-described and demonstrated relationships between the observations and model output • Description of the potential errors and sources of limitations in the observations, forcing factors, and model capability • Improved description of aerosol distribution, solar variability, and land-use or land-cover forcing factors • Effectively selected, sufficiently accurate, peer-reviewed, published, and broadly accepted data and analysis on our ability to simulate the climate of the last 1000 years • Extension of model-data comparisons for the last 1000 years to the following: —Additional variables beyond globally averaged, mean annual surface temperature —The spatial and temporal character of climate variability 6 Human Health and Climate • Effectively selected, sufficiently accurate, peer-reviewed, published, and broadly accepted data and analysis on health and environment relationships • Climate and climate variability forecasts suitable for assessing health outcomes, with well-described sources of error and limitations • Development of monitoring networks that support forecasting regional-scale climate variability and predicting its impact on human health 7 Assessing, Preventing, and Managing Public Health Threats • Well-described and demonstrated assessment of population vulnerabilities to disease outbreaks • Adequate community and infrastructure have been developed to support a program of monitoring, surveillance, and forecasting of disease risk

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Theme Example Metrics   • Sufficient spatial and temporal coverage of model predictions to provide an adequate disease potential based on monitoring and surveillance, with well-described sources of error and limitations • Effective education mechanisms to promote behavior that will reduce risk 8 Adaptive Management of Water Resources • Established (accepted, peer-reviewed, published) baselines for hydrologic forecasting improved as a result of CCSP-supported research • Consistent and reliable estimates and forecasts of water resources quantities (e.g., volume of natural water reservoirs, fluxes) to support adaptive management • Water resource planning scenarios that take into account contingencies such as substantial decreases in mountain snowpack expected as a result of further climate warming or multiyear droughts that stress water resources systems well beyond their design capacity • Accurate regional and national measures of the hydrologic effects likely associated with climate change • Quantitative information on components of the regional, national, and global water cycle that are important for water resources management, such as precipitation patterns and trends, streamflow trends, snowpack, and groundwater changes • Establishment of the degree to which these components are changing because of factors other than natural variability, such as moisture fluxes and precipitation • Sustainable information systems that make water resource data and information readily available to research and applications users   Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Peer-reviewed results from each region and from cross-region syntheses ensure comparability and continuity of data generated for different regions • Have active groups been created that are capable of carrying out the desired policy-related scenario analysis, and is the necessary general analytic capability being sustained to respond when needs arise? • Development of scenarios that not only reflect the range of problems produced by climate change, but also—through deliberative processes—are widely acceptable to impacted populations • Are the analysis and assessment methods well documented, and is the work published in the peer-reviewed literature? • Are the analysis and assessment capabilities adequate to analyze climate scenarios, including the following: —An ability to handle multiple gases, multiple sectors, and all regions of the world —The capacity to link emissions scenarios to climate outcomes —The capability to assess a range of policy proposals and estimate their cost —The capability to analyze uncertainty in emissions, climate outcomes, and policy cost

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program TABLE B.12 Outcome Metrics for All Case Studies Theme Example Metrics 1 Solar Forcing • Improved ability to forecast non-irradiance-related effects of solar activity • Forecasts of future solar variability and predictions of its climate effect are available for comparison with other climate drivers to determine the nature of climate change • Recognition of direct and indirect mechanisms by which solar variations can influence climate   Aerosol Forcing • To what extent are the measurements being used to answer the high-priority climate questions that motivated them? • Are the aerosol measurements together with other aerosol research resulting in better understanding of the uncertainties in climate projections due to direct and indirect aerosol processes? • The program leads to regulation of aerosol emissions 2 Sea-Level Rise • Are the research results leading to lower uncertainties in the historical contributions to sea-level rise and thence to better projections of future sea-level rise? • Has significant progress been made on understanding the contributions to sea-level rise as a result of the measurement, process research, and modeling programs? • Do these projections adequately inform assessments and provide a basis for adaptive management and (inter)national policy making on mitigating the potential consequences of sea-level rise (e.g., impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems)? 3 Effect of CO2 on Land Carbon Balance • Peer-reviewed and published knowledge of the processes by which increasing atmospheric CO2 can influence the carbon balance at (1) the whole plant level and (2) the ecosystem level. Determination of the sign and magnitude (to 30%) of the feedback between CO2 levels and the amount of carbon stored over the first year of the manipulation (and subsequent years as they become available) • Models of suitable spatial scale that incorporate process-level understanding are used to predict the response of ecosystems to multiple stressors, such as increased CO2 and temperature or CO2 and ozone • Policy makers are informed about —The potential for different kinds of ecosystems to store or release carbon under conditions of a 50 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 —The magnitude of release or uptake of CO2 and how this understanding will be modified by the presence of more investigators in the field • Peer-reviewed assessments that quantify the potential effects of changing atmospheric composition on the yield of different crops • Improved prediction of future trends in atmospheric CO2 levels, given a scenario of fossil fuel emissions and deforestation

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Theme Example Metrics 4 Climate-Vegetation Feedbacks • Consistent and reliable projections of vegetation change and climate-vegetation interactions and feedbacks, with well-described sources of error and limitations • Well-described and demonstrated assessment of the resilience of vegetation to a variety of environmental stresses • An improved understanding of the response of ecosystems to environmental stress through an improved capability to assess the role of climate change on a variety of time scales •A peer-reviewed, published, broadly accepted conclusion on the relationships between environment and vegetation • Accelerated incorporation of improved knowledge of climate-vegetation processes and feedbacks into climate models to reduce uncertainty in projections of climate sensitivity and changes in climate and related conditions • Observations, analysis, and models are utilized to improve our understanding of vegetation changes and other ecosystem responses • Expansion of the monitoring, surveillance, and forecast knowledge gained through an examination of vegetation to other areas of ecosystem analysis • Integration of a sustainable community of climate and ecosystem scientists 5 Paleoclimate Time Series • An improved ability to separate the contributions of natural versus human-induced climate forcing to climate variations and change •A peer-reviewed, published, broadly accepted conclusion on our ability to simulate the climate of the last 1000 years, to attribute these variations to specific causes, and to predict future climate 6 Human Health and Climate • Consistent and reliable predictions of climate variables (e.g., sea surface or land temperature distributions) linked to human disease outbreak, with well-described sources of error and limitations • Ability to predict the extent to which a change in climate will significantly affect public health, as measured by an increase in infant mortality rates, declines in human life expectancy, or other factors • Existence of a health care infrastructure with the appropriate expertise to respond to climate predictions 7 Assessing, Preventing, and Managing Public Health Threats • Expansion of the monitoring, surveillance, and forecast knowledge gained through an examination of health to other areas of ecological risk analysis • Consistent and reliable forecasts of disease outbreak potential, with well-described sources of error and limitations •A reliable system for using forecasts to implement adaptation or mitigation strategies that minimize adverse outcomes associated with infectious diseases

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Theme Example Metrics 8 Adaptive Management of Water Resources • Effective pilot research-applications partnerships result in experimental use of more accurate hydrologic forecasting tools and improved decision making • A regional demand exists among stakeholders for emerging CCSP data and information to support decision making • Decision support systems have been adapted to use emerging CCSP data and information • Improved information and technology have resulted in improved operational management of water resources, such as water allocations and reservoir operations • New infrastructure (e.g., groundwater backup systems for surface reservoirs) provides a more stable supply of water • More effective water resources planning structures, such as state drought task forces and agency capital investment plans, have been initiated that explicitly consider climate change   Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Accepted proposals for domestic emissions control measures TABLE B.13 Impact Metrics for All Case Studies Theme Example Metrics 1 Solar Forcing • Public understanding of the importance of solar variation in climate change relative to other radiative forcing (e.g., greenhouse gases) is improved   Aerosol Forcing • Regional air quality is improved as a result of aerosol emission regulations 2 Sea-Level Rise • “No-build” zones established between structures (e.g., roads, railways, houses) and the shoreline protect communities from sea-level rise 3 Effect of CO2 on Land Carbon Balance • Crop productivity is improved because of use of forecasts that take into account changes in CO2, ozone, and climate • Conservation reserves are more resilient because of use of knowledge of how changes in CO2 affect plant competition and ecosystem structure 4 Climate-Vegetation Feedbacks • Increased public understanding of the role of climate and other environmental stresses on ecosystems • Evidence of improved ecosystem management as a result of use of improved data and analysis tools and understanding of ecosystem function

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Thinking Strategically: The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Theme Example Metrics 5 Paleoclimate Time Series • Public is better educated on the history of climate change 6 Human Health and Climate • Increased public awareness of climate impacts on human health • Predictions of climate change reduce risk of human disease outbreaks 7 Assessing, Preventing, and Managing Public Health Threats • Demonstrated cases of successful risk management (e.g., outbreak averted, public warned in time, behavior of individuals changed) • Significantly reduced morbidity and mortality rates as a result of improved management of infectious disease • Improved health infrastructure or heath education programs inform the public of potential risks • Increased public understanding of health risks and requirements to mitigate risk 8 Adaptive Management of Water Resources • Increased resilience of the water supply has decreased the vulnerability of populations to hydrologic aspects of climate variability and change   Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Program results are reflected in U.S. government climate policy, international forums (including the IPCC), and/or public discussion of the issue • The United States is adequately and appropriately prepared for international climate change negotiations

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