IMPROVED SEISMIC MONITORING IMPROVED DECISION-MAKING
Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED SEISMIC MONITORING
CHRIS D. POLAND, Chair,
Degenkolb Engineers, San Francisco, California
JAMES AMENT,
State Farm Fire and Casualty Co., Bloomington, Illinois
DAVID S. BROOKSHIRE,
The University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
JAMES D. GOLTZ,
California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, Pasadena
PETER GORDON,
University of Southern California, Los Angeles
STEPHANIE A. KING,
Weidlinger Associates, Inc., Los Altos, California
HOWARD KUNREUTHER,
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
STUART P. NISHENKO,
Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California
ADAM Z. ROSE,
The Pennsylvania State University, University Park
HOPE A. SELIGSON,
ABS Consulting, Irvine, California
PAUL G. SOMERVILLE,
URS Group, Inc., Pasadena, California
Liaison from Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics:
TERRY C. WALLACE, Jr.,
Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
National Research Council Staff
DAVID A. FEARY, Study Director
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Associate
RADHIKA S. CHARI, Senior Project Assistant (until 5/04)
AMANDA M. ROBERTS, Project Assistant (from 7/04)
COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY AND GEODYNAMICS
TERRY C. WALLACE, Jr., Chair,
Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
ALAN LEVANDER, Vice-Chair,
Rice University, Houston, Texas
ROLAND BÜRGMANN,
University of California, Berkeley
ADAM M. DZIEWONSKI,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
WILLIAM E. HOLT,
State University of New York at Stony Brook
LOUISE H. KELLOGG,
University of California, Davis
M. MEGHAN MILLER,
Central Washington University, Ellensburg
JACK R. MURPHY,
Science Applications International Corporation, Arlington, Virginia
PAUL G. SILVER,
Carnegie Institution of Washington, D.C.
AARON A. VELASCO,
University of Texas at El Paso
RU-SHAN WU,
University of California, Santa Cruz
National Research Council Staff
DAVID A. FEARY, Study Director
VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chair,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
M. LEE ALLISON,
Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence
STEVEN R. BOHLEN,
Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Washington, D.C.
ADAM M. DZIEWONSKI,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
RHEA L. GRAHAM,
New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission, Albuquerque
ROBYN HANNIGAN,
Arkansas State University, Jonesboro
V. RAMA MURTHY,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen’s University, Ontario, Canada
MARK SCHAEFER,
NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia
STEVEN M. STANLEY,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
BILLIE L. TURNER II,
Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
STEPHEN G. WELLS,
Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada
THOMAS J. WILBANKS,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee
National Research Council Staff
ANTHONY R. DE SOUZA, Director
DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
ANN FRAZIER, Program Officer
SAMMANTHA MAGSINO, Program Officer
RONALD F. ABLER, Senior Scholar
HEDY J. ROSSMEISSL, Senior Scholar
TANJA E. PILZAK, Research Associate
CAETLIN M. OFIESH, Research Assistant
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Associate
VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant
JAMES B. DAVIS, Program Assistant
AMANDA M. ROBERTS, Program Assistant
Preface
For those of us who visit and assess areas devastated by earthquakes and have responsibility for ensuring that the damaging effects of earthquakes are minimized, the value of seismic monitoring as one of the essential tools is absolutely clear and unchallenged. However, providing an economic assessment of the value of this tool is a different and difficult issue, and one that has long challenged the nation’s scientists and engineers.
This study, commissioned by the U.S. Geological Survey, is aimed specifically at assessing the economic benefits of modernizing and expanding seismic monitoring activities in the United States, so that the value derived from monitoring data can be compared to other activities competing for the same resources. The National Research Council—in recognition of the multidisciplinary nature of this issue—populated the study committee with representatives from the range of professions involved with geoscience, emergency management, and earthquake engineering issues, together with expert economists to ensure that the benefit analysis was undertaken with appropriate rigor. The committee accepted public testimony, deliberated thoughtfully and with considerable skepticism, and developed this report to clearly set the stage, define the issues, and discuss the costs and benefits that improved seismic monitoring will have on all aspects of earthquake science and engineering.
The committee commenced this study with the expectation that it would collectively be able to identify the many areas where improved seismic monitoring information would contribute to mitigating earthquake losses and be able to use a diverse range of existing information to quantify the economic benefits. In the end, the committee concluded that
although it was possible to describe the numerous potential benefits, attempts to quantify them rigorously proved elusive because the required information either does not exist or is not routinely collected. In keeping with its charge, the committee used a range of assumptions to derive a very approximate estimate of potential performance-based engineering benefits to illustrate the complexity of this task as well as the magnitude of potential benefits.
The recent tragedy in nations surrounding the northern Indian Ocean, caused by the 2004 Sumatran earthquake and tsunami, provided vivid testimony to the awesome power of forces within the earth’s crust, and the enormous potential that these forces pose for devastating loss of life and economic disruption. This event focused national and international attention on the capabilities of warning systems for mitigating natural disasters, leading to accelerated implementation of long-established plans to expand tsunami warning systems. Will it take a similarly devastating earthquake in the United States to accelerate long-established—but only partially funded—plans to broaden seismic monitoring programs to maximize the potential for earthquake hazard mitigation?
On behalf of the committee, I would like to acknowledge and thank all the scientists and engineers who made presentations at our four committee meetings. I wish to also thank the committee members for their thoughtful, pointed, and candid views and their willingness to listen, discover the benefits, and come to agreement. Most of all, I want to thank David Feary and the other members of the NRC staff for their hard work and diligence in keeping us organized, focused, and understandable.
Chris D. Poland
Chair
Acknowledgments
The committee would like to express its appreciation to the many individuals who provided briefings and other information during the information-gathering process: Richard Bernknopf, Steven Bohlen, Dan Byers, Stephen Cauffman, Bruce Clark, Lloyd Cluff, Richard Eisner, Bill Ellsworth, John Filson, Jason Freihage, Linda Gundersen, Robert Herrmann, Richard Howe, Lucy Jones, Patrick Leahy, William Leith, E.V. Leyendecker, Mike Mahoney, Steven McCabe, Charles Meade, Priscilla Nelson, Bela Palfalvi, Paul Reasenberg, Cliff Roblee, Doug Sandy, Woody Savage, Kaye Shedlock, David Simpson, Zan Turner, Craig Weaver, Gene Whitney, Mitch Withers, and Darryl Young. The committee particularly acknowledges the provision of information from Ron Tognazzini and Craig Davis (Los Angeles Department of Water and Power).
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Gail M. Atkinson, Department of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
Stephanie E. Chang, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, and School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
Ronald T. Eguchi, ImageCat, Inc., Long Beach, California
Robert M. Hamilton, Zelienople, Pennsylvania
Peter J. May, Political Science Department, University of Washington, Seattle
Claire B. Rubin, Claire B. Rubin & Associates, Arlington, Virginia
Craig Tillman, Wyndham Partners Consulting Ltd., (an affiliate of Renaissance Reinsurance Ltd.), Laguna Niguel, California
Richard J. Zeckhauser, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William J. Petak, University of Southern California, Los Angeles. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for ensuring that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.