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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS
Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
Committee on Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. NNH05CC15C between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Available in limited supply from Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001, (202) 334-2858.
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS: ASSESSING THE INTEGRATED PLAN FOR A NEXT GENERATION AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
S. MICHAEL HUDSON, Chair,
Rolls-Royce North America (retired), Indianapolis, Indiana
THOMAS M. COOK,
T.C.I., Dallas, Texas1
VAUGHN CORDLE,
Airlineforecasts, LLC, Clifton, Virginia
JERALD M. DAVIS,
Aviation Consultant, Daytona Beach, Florida
JOHN B. HAYHURST,
The Boeing Company (retired), Bellevue, Washington
RICHARD MARCHI,
Airports Council International–North America, Washington, D.C.
AMY R. PRITCHETT,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
EDMOND L. SOLIDAY,
United Airlines (retired), Valparaiso, Indiana
HANSEL E. TOOKES II,
Raytheon International, Inc. (retired), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
IAN A. WAITZ,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
DAVID C. WISLER,
GE Aircraft Engines, Cincinnati, Ohio
Staff
ALAN ANGLEMAN, Study Director
KARA BATH, Senior Project Assistant
ANNA FARRAR, Financial Associate
GEORGE LEVIN, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
CONNIE WOLDU, Administrative Assistant
1
Resigned May 7, 2005.
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
WILLIAM W. HOOVER, Chair,
U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia
EDWARD M. BOLEN,
National Business Aviation Association, Washington, D.C.
ANTHONY J. BRODERICK,
Aviation Safety Consultant, Catlett, Virginia
JOHN-PAUL BARRINGTON CLARKE,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
RAYMOND S. COLLADAY,
Lockheed Martin Astronautics (retired), Golden, Colorado
ROBERT L. CRIPPEN,
Thiokol Propulsion (retired), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
DONALD L. CROMER,
U.S. Air Force (retired), Fallbrook, California
PRESTON HENNE,
Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Savannah, Georgia
S. MICHAEL HUDSON,
Rolls-Royce North America (retired), Indianapolis, Indiana
JOHN L. JUNKINS,
Texas A&M University, College Station
JOHN M. KLINEBERG,
Space Systems/Loral (retired), Redwood City, California
ILAN M. KROO,
Stanford University, Stanford, California
MOLLY K. MACAULEY,
Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
GEORGE K. MUELLNER,
The Boeing Company, Long Beach, California
ELON MUSK,
Space Exploration Development Corporation–SpaceX, El Segundo, California
MALCOLM R. O’NEILL,
Lockheed Martin Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland
AMY R. PRITCHETT,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
DEBRA L. RUB,
The Boeing Company, Anaheim, California
CYNTHIA SAMUELSON,
Logistics Management Institute, McLean, Virginia
PETER STAUDHAMMER,
University of Southern California, La Quinta, California
HANSEL E. TOOKES II,
Raytheon International, Inc. (retired), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
RAY VALEIKA,
Delta Airlines (retired), Powder Springs, Georgia
ROBERT S. WALKER,
Wexler & Walker Public Policy Associates, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT E. WHITEHEAD,
National Institute of Aerospace, Henrico, North Carolina
THOMAS L. WILLIAMS,
Northrop Grumman, El Segundo, California
Staff
GEORGE LEVIN, Director
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
Preface
Federal legislation created the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) in December 2003. Tasks assigned to the JPDO include planning the development of an air transportation system capable of meeting potential air traffic demand by 2025 as well as overseeing and coordinating necessary research among federal agencies and private industry. Completing all of the tasks assigned to the JPDO will be a difficult challenge that goes beyond the limited authority and fiscal resources possessed by the JPDO. The JPDO staff have met this challenge in part through the establishment of nine integrated product teams (IPTs), which are serving as a vehicle both to involve other agencies with an interest in the U.S. air transportation system and to ensure that responsibility for improving the system rests with agencies and government officials with the authority and resources to make the necessary changes. The IPT approach has the potential to address the complexity of NGATS and facilitate an integrated approach that involves private stakeholders and federal agencies. However, the committee recommends that the IPTs be reduced in number and restructured to focus on the operational products that NGATS will require for success. In addition, the committee encourages the JPDO to implement the committee’s recommendations through modifications to the Integrated Plan, to IPT documents, or to both.
Some of the recommendations in this report are directed to the secretary of transportation, the administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, and the administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration because they are members of the Senior Policy Committee that oversees the JPDO.
Michael Hudson, Chair
Committee on Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
George L. Donohue, George Mason University
Ilan Kroo, Stanford University
Richard C. Larson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
John Lauber, Airbus SAS
Michael S. Nolan, Purdue University
Agam Sinha, MITRE Corporation
Richard W. Taylor, Boeing (retired)
Ray Valeika, Delta Airlines (retired)
Bill G.W. Yee, Pratt & Whitney (retired)
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert J. Hermann, Global Technology Partners, LLC. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
1
INTRODUCTION
3
Overview of the Integrated Plan,
5
Demand Is the Key,
6
References,
6
2
VISION AND GOALS
7
Vision and Capacity,
7
Goals,
8
Risk-Based Approach,
9
Assessing Goals and Policies,
9
References,
10
3
OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS
11
References,
13
4
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP AND INTEGRATED PRODUCT TEAMS
14
Roadmap,
14
Integrated Product Teams,
14
Core Technologies and Processes,
16
Automation and Human Factors,
17
Research and Technology Levels,
17
Airport Improvements,
17
Aircraft Noise, Emissions, and Water Quality,
17
Global Harmonization,
18
References,
18
5
IMPLEMENTATION
19
Outreach and Incentives for Change,
20
Systems Integration and Program Management,
21
Certification,
21
Resources,
21
References,
24
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
6
SUMMARY
26
FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
27
APPENDIXES
A Table of Contents of the Next Generation Air Transportation System Integrated Plan
31
B The Vision 100—Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act Public Law 108-176, Sections 709 and 710
33
C Integrated Plan Inventory
36
D Statement of Task and Study Approach
38
E Biographies of Committee Members
40
F An Approach to Assessing Goals and Policies
43
G Draft Plans by the Environmental Integrated Product Team
44
H Acronyms and Abbreviations
48
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
Tables and Figures
TABLES
4-1
IPT Linkages Depicted in Chapter 7 of the Integrated Plan,
15
5-1
Trust Fund Income and FAA Operational Expenses per IFR Operation, FY 2003 and 2004,
23
FIGURES
1-1
Organization of the JPDO and the Senior Policy Committee,
4
5-1
Airport and Airway Trust Fund: income and expenditures,
22
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Technology Pathways: Assessing the Integrated Plan for a Next Generation Air Transportation System
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