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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2006. Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11585.
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B
Workshop Agenda

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2005

Setting the Stage—Michael Ramage, Chair

7:30 am

Sign In

8:00-8:10

Overview of Plan for the Workshop

Michael Ramage, chair, Workshop Planning Group (retired executive vice president, ExxonMobil R&D Company)

8:10-8:45

Issues in the “Peaking of Global Oil Production” Debate

David Greene (corporate fellow, Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

8:45-9:20

World Oil Demand: Key Trends and Uncertainties

Nicola Pochettino (senior energy analyst, International Energy Agency)

9:20-9:55

Global Overview of Petroleum Resources

Thomas Ahlbrandt (project chief, United States Geological Survey)

Future Global Oil Supply and Demand Balance—Scott Tinker, Chair

9:55-10:00

Introduction

Scott Tinker (director, Bureau of Economic Geology, and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas, Austin)

10:00-10:35

A View from Cambridge Research Associates

Peter Jackson (director, Oil Industry Activity, Cambridge Energy Research Associates)

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2006. Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11585.
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10:35-11:10

A Case for a Near-Term Peak in Global Oil Production

Jeremy Gilbert (Barrelmore Ltd.)

11:10-11:45

Questions Regarding Saudi Arabian Petroleum Supplies

Matt Simmons (Simmons & Company International)

11:45-12:20 pm

Exploration Trends, Diminishing Success, and Implications for Future

Crude Supplies

Michael Rodgers (senior director, Exploration and Production Portfolio and Business Development Unit, PFC Energy)

12:20-1:40

Recess

1:40-2:15

The View from ExxonMobil

Scott Nauman (manager, Energy and Economics, Corporate Planning Department, ExxonMobil Corporation)

2:15-2:50

Looking In from the Outside

Kjell Aleklett (Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and professor of physics, Uppsala University)

2:50-3:25

A View of Global Oil Peaking

Herman Franssen (president, International Energy Agency)

3:25-4:00

OPEC Outlook on Oil Supply and Demand

Adnan Shihab-Eldin (acting secretary general, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)

4:00-5:15

Group Discussion

5:15

Adjourn

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2005

Mitigation Options and Time to Implementation—David Greene, Chair

7:30 am

Sign In

8:00-8:05

Introduction

David Greene (corporate fellow, Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

8:05-8:50

Overview of Mitigation Strategies

Robert Hirsch (Science Applications International Corporation)

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2006. Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11585.
×

8:50-9:35

Key Technology Trends Impacting Exploration and Production

Donald Paul (chief technology officer, Chevron Corporation)

9:35-10:10

The Potential of Heavy Oil

Robert Heinemann (president and CEO, Berry Petroleum Company)

10:10-10:45

Oil Sands Development and Future Outlook

Eddy Isaacs (managing director, Alberta Energy Research Institute)

10:45-11:20

The Potential of Shale Oil

Stephen Mut (Shell Exploration and Production Company)

11:20-11:55

Producing Liquid Fuels from Coal

David Gray (director, Energy Systems Analysis, Mitretek Systems)

11:55-1:00 pm

Recess

1:00-1:35

Liquid Fuels from Natural Gas

Emil Jacobs (vice president, R&D, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering)

1:35-2:10

Producing Liquid Fuels from Biomass

Daniel Sperling (professor and director, Institute for Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis)

2:10-2:55

Opportunities for Reducing Oil Demand for Transportation

John Heywood (director, Sloan Automotive Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

2:55-3:10

Break

Potential Follow-up Studies and Activities—Robert Hirsch, Chair

3:10-3:15

Overview and Purpose of the Session

Robert Hirsch (Science Applications International Corporation)

3:15-4:30

Group Discussion

4:30-5:00

Summary of Salient Points from the Group Discussions and Suggestions for Follow-on Studies

Robert Hirsch (Science Applications International Corporation)

5:00

Adjourn

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2006. Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11585.
×
Page 26
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2006. Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11585.
×
Page 27
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2006. Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11585.
×
Page 28
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Recent events and analyses have suggested that global production of oil might peak sometime within the next few years to the next one or two decades. Other analyses, however, conclude that oil supply can meet global demand for some decades to come and that oil production peaking is much further off. To explore this issue, the NRC held a workshop, funded by the Department of Energy, bringing together analysts representing these different views. The workshop was divided into four main sessions: setting the stage; future global oil supply and demand balance; mitigation options and time to implementation; and potential follow-up activities. This report provides a summary of the workshop including the key points, issues and questions raised by the participants, and it identifies possible topics for follow-up studies. No consensus views, conclusions, or recommendations are presented.

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