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2
Programmatic Foundations of AHPS
Prior to evaluating the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) program in terms
of its scientific and technical- (Chapter 3) or user-related (Chapter 4) goals, it is first necessary to
consider the programmatic paradigm for AHPS. The programmatic paradigm includes fundamental
structural elements, such as development and implementation plans; clearly stated purpose, goals
and objectives; measurable criteria against which to determine success of meeting goals; and
adequate human and fiscal resources.
This chapter discusses and evaluates these programmatic elements of the AHPS program.
First, it describes the purpose, goals, and organization of the AHPS program. Next, it describes and
evaluates AHPS in terms of (1) program administration; (2) human and fiscal resources; and (3)
program development and implementation. Finally, this chapter reviews a programmatic aspect that
is explicitly stated as a goal of AHPS, the issue of collaboration and cooperation with other
hydrologic experts. Several findings are noted and recommendations are made.
PURPOSE AND BENEFITS OF AHPS
The National Weather Service (NWS) initiated AHPS in 1997 to develop and provide
advanced technology for hydrologic services. The overarching objectives of AHPS are to increase
river and flood forecasting capability and improve communication among NWS staff and offices,
cooperating federal and other entities, and NWS customers. The NWS describes AHPS as a
program that (1) infuses new science and technology into operations as a cornerstone of NWS
Hydrologic Services modernization (NWS, 2001; 2004a) and (2) has "the primary objectives of
improving the accuracy and lead time of NWS river and flash-flood forecasts, and quantifying the
uncertainty of water predictions" (Carter, 2002).
The NWS plans for AHPS to provide users (1) additional time to prepare for floods or
droughts, more accurate water forecasts and flood warnings, and (2) better information for decision-
making (NWS, 2001; 2002). AHPS will also aim to introduce visually oriented, enhanced river and
water resource forecasts. AHPS products include the probabilistic forecasts of flood occurrence for
large and small areas over time scales from minutes to multi-month seasons. The overarching
purpose, goals, and objectives of AHPS are well communicated by NWS personnel, web-based
venues, and in NWS publications. The NWS is commended for presenting clear and well-
articulated goals of this program.
Economic benefits have been attributed to timely, accurate hydrologic forecasts in the
National Hydrologic Warning Council report, Use and Benefits of the National Weather Service River and
Flood Forecasts (NHWC, 2002). This report quantifies benefits of accurate and timely hydrologic
predictions in the United States. In it, AHPS is recognized as having "tremendous potential" for
residual benefits and leading to decreases in flood-related disaster deaths and economic costs.
AHPS products and services are estimated to produce up to a 15 percent (or $243 million)
improvement in flood loss reduction benefits (NHWC, 2002). The total benefit of NWS hydrologic
forecasting, including AHPS, other predictive services for short- and long-term events, and reservoir
optimization, is conservatively estimated to be $1.86 billion annually (NHWC, 2002). This benefit
increases to $2.4 billion annually when other water resources activities, such as improvements in
operations for hydropower, irrigation, navigation, and water supply are included (NHWC, 2002).
17
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18 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
Because the goals of AHPS are laudable, and the nation needs improved hydrologic services,
continued development and implementation of AHPS should remain high priorities for the
NWS.
ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT FOR AHPS
AHPS is operated out of the Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) of the NWS. The
NWS is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and NOAA is
charged to assess and predict environmental changes, protect life and property, and provide decision
makers with reliable scientific information. Scientific information on water resources flows across
several NOAA offices, including the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research; the National
Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service; and the NWS.
The NWS is charged to oversee a range of hydrologic and meteorological activities, and has
the primary responsibility for issuing forecasts and warnings of floods to help save lives and reduce
flood damages. The NWS operates 13 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) (see Figure 1-1) and 122
Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs; Figure 2-1) across the United States. RFCs conduct hydrologic
modeling operations for streams, reservoirs, and lakes within large river basins. RFCs produce
short-term (zero to seven days), medium-term (eight to 14 days) and long-term (90 days or more)
forecasts at the regional spatial scale. The RFCs primarily focus on short-term forecasts that serve
as input to WFO warnings, watches, and other information that inform decision-makers. Short-
term forecasts include conventional forecast hydrograph output and probabilistic information that
indicates forecast certainty. Medium-term products include conventional forecast hydrographs and
probabilistic information that is produced for selected river basins. Some long-term products
incorporate extended-range precipitation and temperature forecast information from the Climate
Prediction Center. The NWS expects AHPS products to improve the accuracy of short-, medium-
and long-term forecasts.
WFOs serve the most localized areas. WFOs produce warnings, watches, and statements
covering areas and streams of all sizes that are provided via websites, radio, and television. Major
hydrologic services provided by the NWS include flash-flood watches and warnings, river and flood
forecasts and warnings, and water supply forecasts. The NWS depends on WFOs to facilitate flood
and flash-flood warnings for counties and portions of counties and format these warnings to be
issued by forecasters. The NWS expects AHPS advanced models and technical applications to
support and enhance the forecast capabilities of the WFOs.
The NWS has a number of operational and research components and many of the
hydrologic prediction elements of the NWS are responsibilities of OHD. The organizational
structure and responsibilities of OHD are described in NWS Instruction 10-901 (2005). In
collaboration, the Hydrology Laboratory, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, RFCs,
and WFOs develop and apply a variety of hydrometeorological modeling, forecasting, and data
analysis techniques. Some of these techniques are used in AHPS products and services, as well as in
other parts of the NWS and NOAA.
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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 19
FIGURE 2-1 Location of NWS WFOs.
SOURCE: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/wfo-rfcmap.htm.
EVALUATION OF AHPS PROGRAMMATIC ELEMENTS
This section begins the evaluation of AHPS with a description and review of basic
programmatic elements. Programmatic topics covered are AHPS administration, human and fiscal
resources, program development and implementation, and collaboration with other providers of
hydrologic services and products.
AHPS Administration
The NWS designed AHPS to provide products and services at local, regional, and national
levels. AHPS management is centralized in the OHD at the NWS national headquarters and is
administered through the AHPS Review Committee (ARC), which is comprised of NWS employees
from national (headquarters), regional, and local offices. The centralized AHPS management in
national headquarters makes for a top-down management structure that is designed to provide
guidance and direction at the national level and communicate guidance through the regional
Hydrologic Service Divisions to and from RFCs and WFOs. The ARC reflects representation and
participation from NWS local, regional, and national levels and was designed to facilitate
communication and necessary information exchange. In practice, however, it is unclear how well
this management structure works. Committee site visits and interviews with RFC and WFO
personnel suggest that this AHPS management structure is viewed as one that has yet to achieve its
full potential.
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20 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
Three areas are identified as opportunities to secure adequate administration of AHPS
functions across the national, regional, and local levels. First, interviews at local-level offices suggest
that a clear chain of command through these levels needs to be stated and explained. A clear
chain of command would improve communications and hopefully overcome difficulties
encountered in developing an end-to-end system (see Appendix A for survey synopsis). Although
local levels are represented in the ARC, local level personnel expressed a desire for clearer
communications and direction for AHPS implementation and operations.
Second, local hydrologic operatives stated the need for greater AHPS flexibility in meeting
local needs with local solutions. A great deal of modeling that has direct application to AHPS is
done at the local level, using locally collected empirical data. Models developed at national
headquarters are often tested and implemented through regional and local offices, and local offices
may need to adjust the national models for local conditions. Two-way interaction between the
national-level models and local conditions is needed. Furthermore, some of the interviewed field
personnel expressed frustration that they are not involved in an organized way in AHPS product
development and implementation that impact their local operations. AHPS needs clearer and
stronger connections between the AHPS national management and local operations for
AHPS to fulfill its stated goals.
Finally, local solutions that work with national guidance from headquarters may help AHPS
achieve its goals that reach across local, regional, and national levels on timelines of hours to
multiple months. The beginnings of a framework that could facilitate this kind of interaction appear
to be taking form in the NWS through the existing ARC and the regional and national headquarters-
RFC-WFO relationships. Still, improved clarity in communication and chain of command is needed
to ensure that the necessary interactions can facilitate the most efficient administration of the AHPS
program across national, regional, and local offices. Therefore, local and regional field offices,
including RFCs and WFOs, should play a larger role in the administration and management
of AHPS activities.
Human and Fiscal Resources for AHPS
The NWS presents AHPS as a means to reinvigorate the scientific hydrologic research in the
NWS OHD. In order to realize this possibility, adequate human and fiscal resources must be in
place to ensure core competency and program viability.
Human Resources
The strong hydrologic focus of AHPS makes imperative the inclusion of hydrologists in
AHPS administration. Hydrologic information is used in issuing NWS forecasts, watches, and
warnings, and specialists in hydrologic sciences are needed to collect, analyze, and interpret these
data accurately. The WFOs collect hydrologic empirical data of many kinds. WFO employees
collaborate with stream gage experts at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and visit stream gaging
stations and flood-prone locations to acquire information on the impact of flood waters at various
levels. These visits are seminal to the understanding of how stage of flood waters within and outside
of the stream channel (i.e., water depths in floodplain and other flooded areas) relate to stream gage
measurements. A robust AHPS program depends on acquiring and maintaining vast amounts of
hydrologic data and information to deliver high-quality products that describe the local impacts of
flooding.
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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 21
At the RFC level, real-time hydrometeorological data and historical data are used in and
along with powerful hydrologic models (Fread et al., 1998). RFC hydrologists must possess
appropriate knowledge to ensure accurate and reliable input data and validate model output
accuracy.
The success of AHPS depends on the underlying hydrologic and hydro-meteorological
sciences. Current AHPS scientific and modeling development is primarily focused on improving
systems architecture, and this development is occurring through heavy contractor input. Engaging
the best contractors and leveraging relevant research conducted at universities and other
government organizations are reasonable under many different circumstances. However, in-house
core competency is required to develop new procedures and to adapt and integrate externally-
developed research products into improved operations. Strong hydrologic training at the WFO,
RFC, and headquarters levels could address the need for stronger OHD core capability for
hydrologic research and development.
It may seem obvious that the hydrologic activities performed by the WFOs and the RFCs
should be fulfilled by hydrologists. The history of the NWS, however, shows a preponderance of
meteorological experts, even for efforts focused on hydrology. For example, hydrometeorological
personnel with duties that have a meteorological emphasis are required to have an extensive
education in meteorology. In contrast, personnel with duties with a hydrology emphasis are not
required to have a comparable level of education in hydrologic sciences. This staffing issue in the
NWS must be addressed because ultimately AHPS depends on recruiting and retaining the best
professional talent and leadership to operate, optimize, manage, and maintain AHPS system(s) at all
administrative levels. A more substantial educational background in hydrologic science is necessary
for personnel working in such positions on the AHPS program. A recommendation from NRC
(1996) is repeated here: The NWS "should review and, if warranted, modify its qualification
standards for hydrology positions. The NWS should require a degree or extensive formal
education in hydrology for positions that involve a hydrology emphasis."
Fiscal Resources
AHPS operates on a budget of $6M/year (fiscal year (FY) 2005), increased from $ 1 million
in FY1997. The budget allocation is divided among implementation costs, science/software
research, science/software flash-flood services, science/software for short- to long-term forecasts,
science/software for flood forecast mapping, and other products and services. The Susquehanna
Flood Forecast and Warning System1 received a $1 million line item allocation in FY2004 and
FY2005 (NWS, 2004a) from the AHPS budget; in FY2005, an additional $1 million was redirected
to the NWS. Therefore, the $6 million budget was reduced to an effective $5 million in FY2004 and
to $4 million in FY2005.
Differences noted between meteorological and hydrologic NWS staffing are also reflected in
the allocation of fiscal resources at the NOAA level. For example, NOAA's Weather and Water
Goal2 claims that "weather and water services make a tremendous contribution to the Nation's
health and economic vitality." NOAA requested $904 million for this total effort for FY2007. The
division of resources between the "weather" and "water" portions of this budget is roughly 95
percent for weather ($862 million) and 5 percent for water ($42 million). NOAA's Hydrology
1 http://www.susquehannafloodforecasting.org/.
2http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/%7Enbo/FY07_BlueBook/PDFs/WWOnePagerFeb9.pdf.
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22 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
Program is the "water" portion of the goal, and AHPS is part of NOAA's Hydrology Program. For
AHPS, NOAA requested a $6 million budget for FY2007 that reflects the value assigned to
improving hydrologic forecasts. This amount seems misaligned with the importance of providing
accurate, timely hydrologic forecasts that mitigate annual flood costs estimated by NOAA to be $5
billion, plus the 80 lives lost each year to floods3. This amount also seems out of sync with
resources needed to fulfill the basic mission of AHPS, including developing advanced hydrologic
models and producing peer-reviewed publications of AHPS research activities. Therefore, to
ensure a viable and sustainable program over the long-term, the program's goals and budget
should be brought into closer alignment.
AHPS Development and Implementation
This review of AHPS development and implementation plans is based on two sources of
information. This review reflects information shared in presentations and discussions in committee
meeting open sessions and to a greater degree, it is based on an NWS document, Draft: Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Development and Implementation Plan (NWS, 2004b), which describes
the NWS AHPS efforts. The information is then evaluated against basic elements of an
implementation strategy, such as prioritization and schedule for implementation; itemized resources
allocated to each task; specific metrics of success for program goals and progress towards meeting
those goals; methods for incorporating feedback into the implementation process; and follow-on
strategies for longer-range goals.
AHPS has been in incremental implementation since its start in 1997 and is expected to be
completed in 2013. Starting in 1997 in the Des Moines River Basin, AHPS products first provided
forecasts on the relative uncertainty of hydrologic variables with lead times out to three months
(McEnery et al., 2005). Today, river and flood forecasts are now provided at approximately 3,400
locations across the country. Of these locations, AHPS information was available at 1,376 locations
at the end of FY2005 (Figure 2-2), and by the end of FY2013, AHPS information is expected to be
available for 4,011 forecast locations (NWS, 2002). As developed, AHPS forecast and probabilistic
information will be rolled out through the regional RFCs and the local WFOs.
Prioritization, Timeline, and Allocated Resources of Implementation Tasks
In Draft: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Development and Implementation Plan
(NWS, 2004b), the NWS describes its implementation strategy as a three-tiered approach, which
establishes implementation priority on the technical, modeling, and forecasting AHPS products and
services. The approach is tiered to provide "basic" services to all AHPS forecast locations.
"Enhanced" services are to be implemented at the "appropriate" AHPS forecast locations.
"Partnered" services are to be implemented at the "most appropriate" AHPS forecast locations.
Partnered services are co-financed by federal and other funding sources, such as state and local
governments. No guidance is given as to how forecast locations are determined to be "appropriate"
3http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/%7Enbo/FY07_BlueBook/PDFs/WWOnePagerFeb9.pdf.
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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 23
AHPS Implementation
AHPS Expansion Areas
Areas Completed Through FY 2005 (1,376 Forecast
Points)
Areas Covered by FY 2006 National AHPS (308 New Forecast
Points)
FIGURE 2-2 Map of AHPS Expansion Areas through FY2006.
SOURCE: George Smith, NWS, personal communication, 2005.
or "most appropriate." Development program activities are divided among these priority tiers (Box
2-1). Details of the planned products and services are discussed in the scientific and technical
evaluation in Chapter 3.
Although technically AHPS is in its eighth year, the thrust of AHPS activity started with the
increase in fiscal resources in FY2003. NWS (2004b) offers a timeline of implementation (Figure 2-
3) that is reasonably presented by geographic region across the country. However, information in
this timeline is not clearly aligned with the specific program development tasks (Box 2-1). A more
useful timeline would incorporate: tiers of service, program development tasks, geographic location,
expected implementation timeframe, and necessary resources to complete that implementation. The
NWS does itemize resource allocations to program development tasks in the program development
and implementation documentation, but allocation itemization is presented in individual fiscal year
authorizations (i.e., NWS, 2004a). Adding itemized information to the development and
implementation strategies is important to convey budgetary and personnel needs through the
process of program implementation.
Specific Measures of Success
Setting goals is important to establish the direction of a program and the overall purpose of
related efforts. Implementation plans should be closely aligned with those goals and designed such
that progress towards those goals can be measured against specific measures, or metrics, of success.
Examples of setting specific metrics can be found in Draft: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
(AHPS) Development and Implementation Plan ( NWS, 2004b). Although incomplete, AHPS
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24 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
BOX 2-1
Implementation Tiers of AHPS Program Development Activities
1. Basic Services to be provided at all AHPS forecast locations
a. For flood forecast locations
i. Observed and forecast river levels and/or flow
ii. Probabilistic forecast information
b. For water supply forecast locations: water supply volume forecasts
2. Enhanced Services to be provided at all appropriate AHPS forecast locations
a. Flash-flood services
i. Site-specific models that allow WFOs to generate streamflow predictions
ii. Flash-flood guidance
iii. Distributed models
iv. Statistical distributed models
v. Dam break
vi. Multisensor quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE)
vii. Flash-flood monitoring and prediction (FFMP)
viii. Basin legacy support
ix. Training
b. Short-to long-term forecasting services
i. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) system
ii. Training
3. Partnered Service to be provided at the most appropriate AHPS forecast locations is the
Flood-forecast Mapping Service
a. Flood-forecast mapping activities
b. Flood-forecast map evaluations
c. FLDXS
d. FLDVIEW
e. Hydraulic models
f. FLDIMS
g. FLDAT
h. DamAT
i. Training
SOURCE: NWS, 2004b.
performance measures are established for several metrics, and a baseline and a target value is set for
each metric (Table 2-1). In addition to these performance measures, some specific performance
metrics are included for flash-flood services. Specific goals are cited, such as increasing flash-flood
forecasts made from 48 minutes with 88 percent accuracy in 2004 to 52 minutes and 90 percent
accuracy in 2008. In addition, August 2004 is cited as a specific date for full deployment of Beta
testing of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) in San Juan, Puerto Rico
(NWS, 2004b). These examples, and others sprinkled throughout the NWS 2004 document, mark
the beginning of an effort to provide specific, measurable metrics for each goal and implementation
timeline established that should be enhanced and reflected throughout AHPS development
and implementation documentation.
AHPS Long-range Goals
The long-term possibilities for AHPS should receive some consideration in the development
and implementation plans. Already, AHPS is the second generation of hydrologic prediction
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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 25
FIGURE 2-3 AHPS operational forecast locations.
SOURCE: Updated from NWS, 2004b.
NOTE: See acronym list.
services (the Water Resources Forecasting System was the first generation), and it is unclear how
AHPS fits in the long-range view of the NWS and NOAA, more generally. In open session
presentations, NWS personnel described AHPS goals as being met through a number of related, but
distinct NWS and NOAA programs. Some of these other programs include the Integrated Water
Science Plan (NWS, 2004c), the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, the Hydrologic
Services Program, and the Water Resources Data Assimilation effort. Connections between and
among AHPS and these other programs were not described. Some long-range plans for AHPS
should mention how AHPS does (or does not) relate to these other efforts and how, if at all,
they may share objectives, goals, or resources.
Overall, the NWS development and implementation plans for AHPS provide a good start.
The 2004 document, Draft: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Development and Implementation
Plan (NWS, 2004b), sets out the main elements of the program's mission, tasks, and some timeline
plans. Missing from NWS documentation, however, is an overall description of measurable
milestones in getting AHPS to full implementation by 2013. A scheduled timetable, complete with
fiscal and human resource allocations, tasks, and geographic locations is needed to give structure and
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26 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
TABLE 2-1 AHPS Performance Measures
Metric Rationale Baseline (year) Target (year)
Flash-flood warning Contribute to the 41 54
Government lead time (minutes) protection of life (2003) (2010)
Performance and and property
Results Act (GPRA) Flash-flood warning Contribute to the 89 91
accuracy (%) protection of life (2003) (2010)
and property
AHPS forecast Increases 717 4, 011
locations information to (2003) (2013)
manage water
resources
River Flood Leads to TBD TBD
Warning Accuracy increased (2005)
Non-GPRA (%) confidence in
forecasts
New Science Science TBD TBD
Operations (%) enhancements (2005)
implemented
into operations
Probabilistic Leads to TBD TBD
forecast reliability increased (2005)
(%) confidence in
forecasts
SOURCE: NWS, 2004b.
defense to AHPS development and implementation activities. A single overarching plan is also
needed to connect program goals and program development tasks to measurable criteria,
performance measures, fiscal resources, integration of user feedback into AHPS operations, or other
aspects of an overarching implementation plan.
The NWS (2004b) development and implementation document was still in draft form at the
time of this report's printing. As the NWS revises and finalizes this document, it is recommended
that the following items be included for consideration. AHPS should develop a detailed and
comprehensive, multi-year implementation plan that is updated on an annual basis. This
plan should include the following:
1. a detailed prioritization and schedule for program development tasks;
2. itemized fiscal and human resources allocated to each task;
3. specific metrics to measure progress towards meeting objectives;
4. methods for incorporating user feedback into the AHPS program for improving
AHPS products and services; and
5. follow-on strategies to achieve longer range goals.
AHPS Collaborators and Partners
AHPS has an explicit program goal to expand outreach by engaging partners and customers in all
aspects of the hydrologic services improvement effort (NWS, 2004b). In setting out to meet this goal, the
NWS is benefited by the large group of scientists in government, academe, and the private sector
who share interest and expertise in hydrologic research, services, and products. Collaborative
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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 27
pursuits increase support from all organizations involved and help strike a proper balance between
taking advantage of internal and external expertise, programs, and technologies.
The NWS has a history of collaboration with other federal and non-federal agencies to make
efficient use of resources and fulfill NWS objectives. The full list of collaborators4 is long; the main
players include the USGS, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
(USACE), and the Natural Resource Conservation Service. One reason for collaboration on
hydrologic activity stems from a need to share the costs of providing hydrologic services across
temporal and spatial scales. Few entities outside of the federal government can afford the costs of
hydrologic data collection, analysis and modeling. For this reason and for reasons of efficiency,
cooperation and collaboration among involved agencies and entities are important aspects of a
functional hydrologic prediction system.
An excellent example of federal collaboration is between the NWS and the USGS in
developing hydrologic forecasts. The USGS is the principal source of data on river depth and
discharge in the United States (Wahl et al., 1995) with its stream gage network of more than 7,300
stream gages under its National Streamflow Information Program (NSIP5; Figure 2-4). During a
flood, the USGS collects streamflow data, and the NWS collects precipitation data. Together, both
types of data are used by the NWS (Figure 2-5) to develop and calibrate complex mathematical
Active streamgages operated by the USGS
Streamgages currently operated by other agencies and in the NSIP plan
Streamgages that are inactive, to be reactivated in the NSIP plan
Proposed new streamgages in NSIP Plan
FIGURE 2-4 NSIP map of streamgages to support streamflow forecasting.
SOURCE: Adapted from http://water.usgs.gov/nsip/nsipmaps/federalgoals.html.
4See http://www.crh.noaa.gov/-ahps/nws_partners.php for further information.
5Further information on the USGS NSIP program is available online at http://water.usgs.gov/nsip/ and
http://water.usgs.gov/nsip/nsipmaps/currentgages.html.
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28 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
FIGURE 2-5 Example of how AHPS hydrograph information is linked to USGS gage data.
SOURCE: http://ahps2.wrh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=byz&gage=bilm8&view=1,1,1,1,1,1.
models of how rivers and streams respond to rainfall and snowmelt and make hydrologic forecasts
(Fread et al., 1998).
The NWS also collaborates with state (e.g., California Department of Water Resources and
the Colorado Climate Center), local (i.e., Automatic Local Evaluation in Real Time [ALERT]
Network) and academic organizations (i.e., National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR]) to
disseminate information to the public, transmit information to local flood control districts, and
conduct research, respectively.
Whereas many of these collaborations are successful (i.e., USGS, ALERT, and NCAR, etc.),
expanding outreach for the sake of outreach may not advance the purpose and mission of AHPS.
Collaborative efforts need to be closely aligned with the specific program development tasks that the
NWS has established as priorities for AHPS (Box 2-1). Otherwise, collaboration among different
entities may yield mixed results. Each agency has its own hydrologic modeling program. Despite
some progress through interagency collaborative activities over the years, it is unclear whether these
activities achieve or advance AHPS program goals.
Development of models and software is a major thrust of AHPS collaborations. Discussed
more fully in Chapter 3, the DMIP, the CHPS, and the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment are
working examples of collaboration on modeling, technical, and scientific aspects of hydrologic
products and services. These activities demonstrate that the NWS engages the hydrologic science
research community to infuse ideas from academic and governmental research laboratories and help
establish the research agenda for AHPS. The degree to which these collaborations are aligned with
AHPS goals and objectives needs clarification.
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Programmatic Foundations of AHPS 29
The USACE collaborates with AHPS researchers on a regional basis, but the model
alterations used in the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) (see Chapter 4, Box 4-1)
suggest that additional collaborations could benefit AHPS model developments. The HEC has
incorporated gridded and lumped versions of the SAC-SMA (see the Chapter 3 section on
Hydrologic Models of NWSRFS) into their Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) through various
mechanisms of making adaptations to the SAC-SMA (USACE, 2001). The HEC approaches to
integrate and make adjustments to model parameterization and calibration may benefit the NWS;
AHPS modelers might consider for AHPS applications some of the positive features of the HEC-
HMS user friendly interface.
AHPS has shown a promising record in collaborative work and research with federal, state,
local, and academic liaisons, and the NWS should continue and focus collaboration activities
with federal, academic, and private sector organizations to advance AHPS program and
product development.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter describes the programmatic aspects of AHPS. The purpose and benefits of the
program are discussed and the organizational structure for the program is explained. The AHPS
administrative structure, human and fiscal resources, plans for AHPS product development and
implementation, and collaborative efforts among AHPS partners are evaluated. The chapter's
recommendations are in Box 2-2.
BOX 2-2
Recommendations
· Local and regional field offices, including RFCs and WFOs, should play a larger role in the
administration and management of AHPS activities.
· A recommendation from NRC (1996) is repeated: The NWS "should review and, if warranted,
modify its qualification standards for hydrology positions. The NWS should require a degree or
extensive formal education in hydrology for positions that involve a hydrology emphasis."
· A better, closer alignment between AHPS goals and the budget dedicated to fully achieve those
goals is needed for AHPS longevity and viability.
· Some long-range plans for AHPS should mention how AHPS does (or does not) relate to other
NWS and NOAA water-related programs and how, if at all, they may share objectives, goals, or
resources.
· AHPS should develop a detailed and comprehensive, multi-year implementation plan that is
updated on an annual basis. This plan should include the following:
o a detailed prioritization and schedule for program development tasks;
o itemized fiscal and human resources allocated to each task;
o specific measures (metrics) to measure progress towards meeting objectives;
o methods for incorporating user feedback into the AHPS program for improving AHPS
products and services; and
o follow-on strategies for the NWS and the program's longer range goals.
· The NWS should continue and focus collaboration activities with federal, academic, and private
sector organizations to advance AHPS program and product development.
OCR for page 30
30 Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
advanced hydrologic
