POLAR ICEBREAKERS IN A CHANGING WORLD

An Assessment of U.S. Needs

Committee on the Assessment of U.S. Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Roles and Future Needs

Polar Research Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Marine Board

Transportation Research Board

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of U.S. Needs POLAR ICEBREAKERS IN A CHANGING WORLD An Assessment of U.S. Needs Committee on the Assessment of U.S. Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Roles and Future Needs Polar Research Board Division on Earth and Life Studies Marine Board Transportation Research Board NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of U.S. Needs THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the Committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the Department of Transportation under Contract No. DTMA1H04002. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-10321-3 International Standard Book Number-10 0-309-10321-5 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); internet, http://www.nap.edu. Cover: U.S. Coast Guard Cutter POLAR STAR underway enroute to McMurdo Station, Antartica. Photo courtesy of U.S. Coast Guard. Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of U.S. Needs THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of U.S. Needs COMMITTEE ON THE ASSESSMENT OF U.S. COAST GUARD POLAR ICEBREAKER ROLES AND FUTURE NEEDS ANITA K. JONES (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc., Mount Pleasant, South Carolina JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park, and Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland HAJO EICKEN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks JEFFREY M. GARRETT, United States Coast Guard (retired), Mercer Island, Washington JACQUELINE M. GREBMEIER, University of Tennessee, Knoxville MAHLON C. KENNICUTT II, Texas A&M University, College Station RONALD K. KISS, Webb Institute, Glen Cove, New York DOUGLAS R. MACAYEAL, University of Chicago, Illinois ROBERT C. NORTH, North Star Maritime, Inc., Queenstown, Maryland RAYMOND J. PIERCE, Departmental Renewal Implementation Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ontario STEVEN T. SCALZO, Marine Resources Group, Inc., Seattle, Washington DAVID G. ST. AMAND, Navigistics Consulting, Boxborough, Massachusetts JAMES H. SWIFT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego NRC Staff MARIA UHLE, Study Director BEVERLY HUEY, Study Director ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate

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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of U.S. Needs POLAR RESEARCH BOARD ROBIN BELL (Chair), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York JAMES E. BERNER, Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, Anchorage, Alaska DAVID BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus CALVIN ROBERT CLAUER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JODY W. DEMING, University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle ANDREW G. FOUNTAIN, Portland State University, Oregon RICHARD GLENN, Arctic Slope Regional Corporation, Barrow, Alaska JAQUELINE M. GREBMEIER, University of Tennessee, Knoxville SVEN D. HAAKANSON, Alutiiq Museum, Kodiak, Alaska LAWRENCE HAMILTON, University of New Hampshire, Durham LARRY HINZMAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks DAVID KARL, University of Hawaii, Honolulu STEPHANIE PFIRMAN, Barnard College, New York, New York DIANA HARRISON WALL, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins JOHN WALSH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks International Arctic Research Center JAMES WHITE, University of Colorado, Department of Geological Sciences, Boulder WARREN M. ZAPOL, M.D., Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston Ex-Officio MAHLON C. KENNICUTT II (U.S. Delegate to SCAR), Texas A&M University, College Station PATRICK WEBBER (U.S. Delegate to IASC), Michigan State University, East Lansing TERRY WILSON (Alternate U.S. Delegate to SCAR), Ohio State University, Columbus NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director MARIA UHLE, Program Officer RACHAEL SHIFLETT, Senior Program Assistant ANDREAS SOHRE, Financial Associate

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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of U.S. Needs MARINE BOARD GERALDINE KNATZ (Chair), Port of Long Beach, California MARTHA GRABOWSKI (Vice Chair), LeMoyne College, Cazenovia, New York KENNETH E. ARNOLD, AMEC Paragon, Houston, Texas CHARLES R. CUSHING, C. R. Cushing & Co., Inc., New York, New York LARRY L. DAGGETT, Waterway Simulation Technology, Inc., Vicksburg, Mississippi ROBERT A. DALRYMPLE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland PAUL S. FISCHBECK, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania STEPHEN E. FLYNN, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York RODNEY GREGORY, IBM Global Services, Fairfax, Virginia I. BERNARD JACOBSON, IBJ Associates, Boston, Massachusetts RONALD K. KISS, Webb Institute, Glen Cove, New York SALLY ANN LENTZ, Ocean Advocates, Clarksville, Maryland MALCOLM MACKINNON III, MSCL LLC, Alexandria, Virginia REGINALD MCKAMIE, ESQ., Houston, Texas ROBERT C. NORTH, North Star Maritime, Inc., Queenstown, Maryland PATRICK O’CONNOR, BP America, Inc., Houston, Texas ROBERT PORTISS, Tulsa Port of Catoosa, Catoosa, Oklahoma EDWIN J. ROLAND, Seaworthy Systems, Inc., Houston, Texas JERRY R. SCHUBEL, Aquarium of the Pacific, Long Beach, California RICHARD H. VORTMANN, National Steel and Shipbuilding Company, San Diego, California TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2005 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OFFICERS JOHN R. NJORD (Chair), Executive Director, Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City MICHAEL D. MEYER (Vice Chair), Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta C. MICHAEL WALTON (Division Chair for NRC Oversight), Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR. (Executive Director), Transportation Research Board

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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of U.S. Needs Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Brian N. Bershad, University of Washington, Seattle Lawson Brigham, U.S. Arctic Research Commission, Anchorage, Alaska David H. Bromwich, The Ohio State University, Columbus Thomas R. Case, University of Alaska, Anchorage Margo H. Edwards, University of Hawaii, Manoa Richard M. Goody, Harvard University (emeritus), Falmouth, Massachusetts Rodney Gregory, IBM Global Services, Reston, Virginia Robert Knox, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla George B. Newton, Jr., Planning Systems Inc., McLean, Virginia Robert H. Rutford, University of Texas, Dallas Norman C. Venzke, U.S. Coast Guard (retired), Virginia Beach, Virginia Richard Voelker, Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C. Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by George M. Hornberger, University of Virginia, and John B. Mooney, Jr., U.S. Navy (retired). Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of U.S. Needs Contents     SUMMARY FOR CONGRESS   1     SUMMARY   5 1   INTRODUCTION   13      The U.S. Icebreaker Fleet,   15      Purpose of This Report,   15 2   U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND MISSIONS IN THE POLAR REGIONS   19      The U.S. Antarctic Presence,   19      The U.S. Arctic Presence,   23      Welfare of Alaskan Citizens,   26 3   ARCTIC ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND POTENTIAL CHALLENGES   29      Overview of Arctic Environmental Change,   29      Potential Environmental Challenges,   30 4   POLAR SCIENCE’S KEY ROLE IN EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE   39      Arctic Science,   40      Antarctic Science,   42      The International Polar Year 2007-2008,   45      Final Thoughts,   45 5   U. S. COAST GUARD ROLES AND MISSIONS   47      Maritime Safety,   48      National Defense,   48      Maritime Security,   49      Maritime Mobility,   50      Protection of Natural Resources,   50      Ice Operations,   51 6   U.S. POLAR ICEBREAKER FLEET   53      Icebreaking Ships—An Historical Perspective,   53      Assessment of National Icebreaker Requirements,   55

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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of U.S. Needs      The Present Fleet of U.S. Icebreakers,   56      The Current World Fleet of Polar Icebreakers,   57      Icebreaker Technology,   58      Icebreakers Under Construction,   62      U.S. Polar Icebreaker Operations in the Last Twenty Years,   62 7   ICEBREAKING ENVIRONMENTS AND CHALLENGES TO THE U.S. FLEET   65      Operating Environments,   65      Potential Challenges to the U.S. Fleet,   71 8   ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES FOR USAP RESUPPLY   75      Current Logistics Support in Antarctica,   75      Alternatives for Antarctic Resupply,   75 9   ANALYSIS OF U.S. CURRENT AND FUTURE POLAR ICEBREAKING NEEDS   79      Needs Analysis,   79      Gap Analysis,   81 10   OPTIONS FOR ACQUIRING NEW POLAR ICEBREAKING SERVICES   83      Options for Meeting Gaps in U.S. Polar Icebreaking Capabilities,   83      Ship Renewal and Transition Schedule,   87      Options for Polar Icebreaking Crewing,   88 11   FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   95      Icebreaking Needs in the Arctic,   95      Icebreaking Needs in the Antarctic,   96      Support of U.S. Polar Research,   97      Renewal of the Nation’s Polar Icebreaking Fleet,   98      Transition to a new Polar Icebreaking Fleet,   100      Managing the Nation’s Polar Icebreaking Fleet,   101      Clarification of National Policy,   102     REFERENCES   103     APPENDIXES     A   STATEMENT OF TASK   107 B   SUMMARY FROM INTERIM REPORT   109 C   U.S. COAST GUARD POLAR ICEBREAKING AUTHORITY AND POLICY   113 D   BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS   117 E   ACRONYMS   121