Energy in Transition, 1985-2010: Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems

TABLE 2–3 Scenarios of Energy Demand for Transportation

Scenario^a	Average Delivered Energy Price in 2010 as Multiple of Average 1975 Price (1975 dollars)	Energy Conservation Policy	Energy Intensity by Application		Total Demand Demand (quads)
Scenario^a		Energy Conservation Policy	Application	Intensity^b	Total Demand Demand (quads)
A*	4	Very aggressive, deliberately arrived at reduced demand requiring some lifestyle changes			10
A	4	Aggressive; aimed at maximum efficiency plus minor life-style changes	Automobile Light trucks and vans Air passenger Truck freight Air freight Rail freight	37 mpg 30 mpg 0.42 0.60 0.60 0.91	14
B	2	Moderate: slowly incorporates more measures to increase efficiency	Automobile Light trucks and vans Air passenger Truck freight Air freight Rail freight	27 mpg 21 mpg 0.45 0.80 0.60 0.97	20
B′	2	Same as B, but 3 percent average annual GNP growth			27
C	1	Unchanged; present policies continue	Automobile Light trucks and vans Air passenger Truck freight Air freight Rail freight	20 mpg 16 mpg 0.50 0.90 0.60 1.00	26
^aScenario D is not included in this table; its price assumption (a one-third decrease by 2010) appears implausible. ^bFigures not followed by “mpg” refer to the ratios of new-equipment energy intensities in 2010 to those of 1975.