TABLE 2–3 Scenarios of Energy Demand for Transportation

Scenarioa

Average Delivered Energy Price in 2010 as Multiple of Average 1975 Price (1975 dollars)

Energy Conservation Policy

Energy Intensity by Application

Total Demand Demand (quads)

Application

Intensityb

A*

4

Very aggressive, deliberately arrived at reduced demand requiring some lifestyle changes

 

 

10

A

4

Aggressive; aimed at maximum efficiency plus minor life-style changes

Automobile

Light trucks and vans

Air passenger

Truck freight

Air freight

Rail freight

37 mpg

30 mpg

0.42

0.60

0.60

0.91

14

B

2

Moderate: slowly incorporates more measures to increase efficiency

Automobile

Light trucks and vans

Air passenger

Truck freight

Air freight

Rail freight

27 mpg

21 mpg

0.45

0.80

0.60

0.97

20

B′

2

Same as B, but 3 percent average annual GNP growth

 

 

27

C

1

Unchanged; present policies continue

Automobile

Light trucks and vans

Air passenger

Truck freight

Air freight

Rail freight

20 mpg

16 mpg

0.50

0.90

0.60

1.00

26

aScenario D is not included in this table; its price assumption (a one-third decrease by 2010) appears implausible.

bFigures not followed by “mpg” refer to the ratios of new-equipment energy intensities in 2010 to those of 1975.



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