STRATEGIC GUIDANCE FOR THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION’S SUPPORT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under Contract No. ATM-0405530. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON STRATEGIC GUIDANCE FOR NSF’S SUPPORT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
JOHN A. ARMSTRONG (Chair),
IBM Corporation (retired), Amherst, Massachusetts
SUSAN K. AVERY,
University of Colorado, Boulder
HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
ELBERT W. FRIDAY,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
MARVIN A. GELLER,
State University of New York, Stony Brook
ELISABETH A. HOLLAND,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
CHARLES E. KOLB,
Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
MARGARET A. LEMONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
RAMON E. LOPEZ,
Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne
SUSAN SOLOMON,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
JOHN M. WALLACE,
University of Washington, Seattle
ROBERT A. WELLER,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
STEPHEN E. ZEBIAK,
Columbia University, Palisades, New York
NRC Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Study Director
CURTIS MARSHALL, Program Officer
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ROBERT J. SERAFIN (Chair),
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
M. JOAN ALEXANDER,
NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, Colorado
FREDERICK R. ANDERSON,
McKenna, Long, & Aldridge, LLP, Washington, D.C.
MICHAEL L. BENDER,
Princeton University, New Jersey
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
MARY ANNE CARROLL,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
CAROL ANNE CLAYSON,
Florida State University, Tallahassee
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KERRY A. EMANUEL,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
DENNIS L. HARTMANN,
University of Washington, Seattle
PETER R. LEAVITT,
Weather Information Company, Newton, Massachusetts
JENNIFER A. LOGAN,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
VERNON R. MORRIS,
Howard University, Washington, D.C.
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
ROGER M. WAKIMOTO,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Ex Officio Members
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR.,
University of Maryland, College Park
ERIC F. WOOD,
Princeton University, New Jersey
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
PAUL CUTLER, Senior Program Officer
AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Program Officer
CURTIS MARSHALL, Program Officer
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Program Officer
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate
LEAH PROBST, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant
KATIE WELLER, Program Assistant
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Coordinator
ANDREAS SOHRE, Financial Associate
Preface
This report comes out at a time of significant opportunities and challenges for the atmospheric sciences. More than ever before, society is recognizing the value of weather, air quality, climate, and space weather forecasts and demanding more sophisticated products and services. The last several decades have brought impressive advances in our knowledge of the atmosphere and the Sun, while illuminating just how much more we have to learn. New observational and computational tools have greatly expanded research capabilities. Yet, the national investment in atmospheric research has remained relatively flat over the past decade, presenting a challenge to those who must decide how best to allocate the available resources.
The National Science Foundation’s (NSF’s) Division of Atmospheric Sciences (ATM) has asked the National Academies to perform a study that will provide guidance to ATM on its strategy for achieving its goals in the atmospheric sciences. This request reflects a desire by NSF to get a broad view of the health of the atmospheric sciences and to get some guidance on how best to direct resources in the future. In response to NSF’s request, the National Academies formed the Committee on Strategic Guidance for NSF’s Support of the Atmospheric Sciences. In essence, the committee was asked to consider how ATM can best accomplish its goals of supporting cutting-edge research, education and workforce development, service to society, computational and observational objectives, data management, and other goals of the atmospheric science community into the future. (See Box P-1 for the full statement of task.)
The committee approached its task in two phases. In the first phase, the committee met four times to gather information, interact with the
BOX P-1 Statement of Task for Committee on Strategic Guidance for NSF’s Support of the Atmospheric Sciences At the request of ATM, this committee will perform a study that will provide guidance to ATM on its strategy for achieving its goals in the atmospheric sciences (e.g., cutting-edge research, education and workforce development, service to society, computational and observational objectives, data management). In doing so, the committee will seek to engage the broad atmospheric science community to the fullest extent possible. The committee will provide guidance on the most effective approaches for different goals and on determining the appropriate balance among approaches. In essence, the committee is asked to consider how ATM can best accomplish its mission of supporting the atmospheric sciences into the future. Specifically, this study will consider the following questions:
The study will not make budgetary recommendations. The committee will deliver its results in two parts: (1) a short interim report in fall 2005 that provides a preliminary sense of the committee’s overarching conclusions; and (2) a final report by fall 2006 that further considers community input and provides the committee’s full analysis and recommendations. |
broader atmospheric sciences community, and conduct deliberations. At several of these meetings, members of the atmospheric sciences community were invited to share their perspectives on study questions, both in sessions devoted to specific issues and in an “open mike” session when any comments were welcome. In addition, the committee made available a Web site through which members of the community could contribute comments, met with the heads and chairs of the University Corporation for Atmospheric
Research (UCAR) universities, and held town hall sessions at the December 2004 fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and at the January 2005 annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). In September 2005, we released an interim report, Strategic Guidance for the National Science Foundation’s Support of the Atmospheric Sciences: An Interim Report, that provided some preliminary insight in response to the charge from NSF.
The interim report was quite well received by NSF and the broader atmospheric sciences community and served to spark many thoughtful responses. The committee welcomed this feedback received in written form as well as at briefings of the report held for NSF staff, for a fall 2005 meeting of the Board of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate in Boulder, Colorado, and during town hall sessions at the December 2005 fall AGU meeting and at the January– February 2006 annual AMS meeting. In particular, the committee was urged to go further in exploring many of the issues raised in the interim report, such as opportunities for high-risk, potentially transformative research, and to consider some aspects that were not highlighted in that report, including supercomputing and training the next generation of atmospheric scientists. The committee took seriously this input during its deliberations for the second phase of the study. In this final report of the committee, we reiterate many of the findings and recommendations of the interim report, make some modest changes to some of them, and offer several new ones.
Many individuals have assisted the committee in gathering information about the current status and evolution of the atmospheric sciences as well as in organizing meetings. We especially appreciate the efforts of Jarvis Moyers, Jay Fein, and their colleagues at ATM, who graciously accommodated multiple requests for detailed information about the division’s activities, budgets, and grants over the past 30 years. Richard Anthes, Susan Friberg, and their colleagues at UCAR and Tim Killeen and his colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) were very helpful in providing information about UCAR/NCAR activities and in planning the committee’s meeting in Boulder, Colorado. Most notably, all the input received from the broader atmospheric sciences community has been instrumental in shaping the committee’s thinking; we especially acknowledge the comments of the individuals listed in Appendix C.
Finally, it is a pleasure to recognize the outstanding work of the study director, Senior Program Officer Amanda Staudt, who brought to our task both broad knowledge of atmospheric sciences and great skill in the conduct of National Research Council studies. She was ably assisted by Associate Program Officer Claudia Mengelt and Research Associate Elizabeth Galinis.
John Armstrong
Committee Chair
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
David Atlas, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Silver Spring, Maryland
Sarbani Basu, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
William H. Brune, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
Carol Anne Clayson, Florida State University, Tallahassee
Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Paul Dusenbery, Space Science Institute, Boulder, Colorado
Delores J. Knipp, U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado
Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Princeton University, New Jersey
Gerard Roe, University of Washington, Seattle
Gabor Vali, University of Wyoming, Laramie
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by George Hornberger, University of Virginia, and Thomas Graedel, Yale University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.