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OCR for page 169
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft
Appendix G
Sensitivity Analysis
Tables G-1, G-2, and G-3 provide the relevant columns of Tables 5-7 and 5-8 for three levels of fuel savings: 100 percent, 90 percent, and 50 percent of the estimate. All these are for a burdened fuel cost of $2.50/gal. Tables G-1, G-2, and G-3 are for annual increases in fuel cost of 3 percent, 6 percent, and 9 percent, respectively.
Tables G-4, G-5, G-6, and G-7 give the relevant sensitivities in the estimates corresponding to Table 5-9 for total burdened per gallon costs of $5, $10, $20, and $40, respectively. The direct fuel cost component of $2.50 increases at 6 percent per year, and the remainder (overhead component) increases at 3 percent per year, as stated in Chapter 5 text.
OCR for page 170
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft
TABLE G-1 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Tables 5-7 and 5-8 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, with Fuel Cost Increasing at 3%/yra,b
Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination
Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c
Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c
100%
90%
50%
100%
90%
50%
Re-engining
C-130H/AE 2100d
17.7
19.2
32.3
203
59
−515
C-130H/PW150d
19.5
21.3
36.5
37
−91
−604
B-1/F119/5.0
>60
>60
>60
−1,029
−1,055
−1,161
E-3/CFM56-2B-1
22.2
23.3
29.0
−34
−47
−100
E-3/JT8D-219
36.3
37.8
45.8
−157
−164
−192
E-3/CFM56-7B22
16.5
17.3
21.9
78
57
−30
E-8/CFM56-2B-1e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/JT8D-219e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/CFM56-7B22e
–
–
–
–
–
–
KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1
45.1
48.2
>60
−532
−555
−647
KC-135D/E: JT8D-219
>60
>60
>60
−769
−784
−845
KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22
31.6
33.4
44.3
−378
−411
−543
B-52/F117-PW-100 [4]
20.6
22.0
31.3
−27
−83
−309
B-52/CF34-10A [8]
28.4
29.8
37.2
−361
−397
−543
B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4]
16.1
17.0
22.0
224
163
−81
C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f
–
–
–
–
–
–
Engine modification
KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod)
>60
>60
>60
−1,318
−1,344
−1,446
C-130H: T56-A427 Modd
17.8
19.3
31.0
107
31
−227
C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd
26.1
28.4
47.7
−184
−231
−417
B-1/F101 Mod
8.0
8.2
9.1
470
439
313
KC-10/CF6-50 Mod
3.8
3.8
3.9
325
324
316
NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005.
aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report.
bFuel cost is $2.50 per gallon.
cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point.
dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions.
eE-8 re-engining already ongoing.
fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.
OCR for page 171
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft
TABLE G-2 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Tables 5-7 and 5-8 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, with Fuel Cost Increasing at 6%/yra,b
Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination
Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c
Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c
100%
90%
50%
100%
90%
50%
Re-engining
C-130H/AE 2100d
14.4
15.4
22.6
817
612
−208
C-130H/PW150d
15.5
16.6
24.6
585
402
−330
B-1/F119/5.0
51.1
55.2
>60
−922
−959
−1,107
E-3/CFM56-2B-1
19.0
19.9
25.1
20
1
−73
E-3/JT8D-219
29.4
30.7
37.9
−128
−138
−178
E-3/CFM56-7B22
14.5
15.2
19.3
165
135
14
E-8/CFM56-2B-1e
–
–
–
–
–
−
E-8/JT8D-219e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/CFM56-7B22e
–
–
–
–
–
–
KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1
32.3
34.1
45.3
−438
−471
−600
KC-135D/E: JT8D-219
47.9
50.7
>60
−707
−728
−814
KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22
24.9
26.2
34.3
−243
−289
−475
B-52/F117-PW-100 [4]
17.0
18.0
24.6
206
126
−193
B-52/CF34-10A [8]
23.5
24.6
31.0
−211
−263
−468
B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4]
14.1
14.8
19.1
475
389
45
C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f
–
–
–
–
–
–
Engine modification
KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod)
56.6
>60
>60
−1,213
−1,249
−1,394
C-130H: T56-A427 Modd
14.6
15.5
22.5
431
323
−110
C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd
19.7
21.1
30.6
15
−51
−318
B-1/F101 Mod
7.7
7.9
8.8
610
565
383
KC-10/CF6-50 Mod
3.8
3.8
3.9
333
330
320
NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005.
aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report.
bFuel cost is $2.50 per gallon.
cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point.
dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions.
eE-8 re-engining already ongoing.
fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.
OCR for page 172
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft
TABLE G-3 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Tables 5-7 and 5-8 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, with Fuel Cost Increasing at 9%/yra,b
Candidate Aircraft/EngineCombination
Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c
Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c
100%
90%
50%
100%
90%
50%
Re-engining
C-130H/AE 2100d
12.4
13.1
18.1
1,715
1,420
240
C-130H/PW150d
13.2
14.0
19.4
1,387
1,124
71
B-1/F119/5.0
33.5
35.4
47.0
−767
−820
−1,030
E-3/CFM56-2B-1
16.6
17.4
21.8
98
72
−34
E-3/JT8D-219
24.5
25.5
31.4
−87
−101
−157
E-3/CFM56-7B22
13.0
13.6
17.2
291
248
77
E-8/CFM56-2B-1e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/JT8D-219e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/CFM56-7B22e
–
–
–
–
–
–
KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1
25.4
26.7
34.2
−301
−347
−531
KC-135D/E: JT8D-219
34.3
35.9
45.5
−616
−647
−768
KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22
20.6
21.6
27.7
−46
−112
−376
B-52/F117-PW-100 [4]
14.6
15.3
20.4
545
431
−23
B-52/CF34-10A [8]
19.9
20.8
26.1
7
−66
−359
B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4]
12.6
13.2
16.8
841
718
228
C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f
–
–
–
–
–
–
Engine modification
KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod)
36.6
38.5
50.2
−1,060
−1,112
−1,317
C-130H: T56-A427 Modd
12.6
13.3
18.2
905
750
127
C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd
16.3
17.2
23.5
307
211
−172
B-1/F101 Mod
7.4
7.6
8.5
815
749
486
KC-10/CF6-50 Mod
3.8
3.8
3.9
343
339
325
NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005.
aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report.
bFuel cost is $2.50 per gallon.
cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point.
dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions.
eE-8 re-engining already ongoing.
fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.
OCR for page 173
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft
TABLE G-4 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Table 5-9 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, at a Burdened Fuel Cost of $5 per Gallona,b
Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination
Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c
Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c
100%
90%
50%
100%
90%
50%
Re-engining
C-130H/AE 2100d
10.1
10.8
15.7
2,254
1,905
510
C-130H/PW150d
10.9
11.6
17.1
1,869
1,557
311
B-1/F119/5.0
36.6
40.1
>60
−658
−721
−975
E-3/CFM56-2B-1
14.5
15.3
20.4
154
122
−7
E-3/JT8D-219
23.3
24.6
32.1
−58
−75
−142
E-3/CFM56-7B22
10.9
11.6
15.4
380
329
121
E-8/CFM56-2B-1e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/JT8D-219e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/CFM56-7B22e
–
–
–
–
–
–
KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1
24.5
26.1
36.6
−210
−265
−485
KC-135D/E: JT8D-219
37.2
39.9
57.3
−556
−592
−738
KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22
18.7
19.9
27.4
86
6
−311
B-52/F117-PW-100 [4]
12.2
13.0
18.4
771
635
90
B-52/CF34-10A [8]
18.1
19.1
25.5
153
65
−286
B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4]
10.6
11.1
15.0
1,085
938
350
C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f
–
–
–
–
–
–
Engine modification
KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod)
42.3
46.0
>60
−957
−1,019
−1,266
C-130H: T56-A427 Modd
10.4
11.0
15.9
1,188
1,004
269
C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd
13.9
14.8
22.0
481
368
−85
B-1/F101 Mod
6.6
6.9
7.9
924
847
540
KC-10/CF6-50 Mod
3.6
3.6
3.8
351
346
329
NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005.
aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report.
bThe direct fuel cost component of $5.00 increases at 6 percent per year, and the overhead increases at 3 percent per year.
cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point.
dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions.
eE-8 re-engining already ongoing.
fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.
OCR for page 174
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft
TABLE G-5 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Table 5-9 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, at a Burdened Fuel Cost of $10 per Gallona,b
Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination
Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c
Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c
100%
90%
50%
100%
90%
50%
Re-engining
C-130H/AE 2100d
7.2
7.6
10.5
5,128
4,492
1,947
C-130H/PW150d
7.7
8.2
11.3
4,435
3,867
1,594
B-1/F119/5.0
22.0
24.2
42.4
−129
−246
−771
E-3/CFM56-2B-1
10.2
10.8
15.0
421
362
127
E-3/JT8D-219
16.7
17.7
24.6
83
52
−72
E-3/CFM56-7B22
7.8
8.3
11.3
811
716
337
E-8/CFM56-2B-1e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/JT8D-219e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/CFM56-7B22e
–
–
–
–
–
–
KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1
16.6
17.8
26.2
247
146
−257
KC-135D/E: JT8D-219
25.2
27.2
41.5
−253
−320
−587
KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22
12.9
13.8
19.7
743
598
18
B-52/F117-PW-100 [4]
8.4
8.9
12.6
1,902
1,652
655
B-52/CF34-10A [8]
12.8
13.6
18.9
881
720
78
B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4]
7.6
8.0
10.9
2,304
2,035
959
C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f
–
–
–
–
–
–
Engine modification
KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod)
26.5
29.0
49.5
−445
−558
−1,009
C-130H: T56-A427 Modd
7.4
7.9
10.7
2,702
2,367
1,026
C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd
9.6
10.1
14.5
1,413
1,207
381
B-1/F101 Mod
5.3
5.5
6.8
1,551
1,412
854
KC-10/CF6-50 Mod
3.3
3.3
3.6
387
379
347
NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005.
aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report.
bThe direct fuel cost component of $10.00 increases at 6 percent per year, and the overhead increases at 3 percent per year.
cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point.
dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions.
eE-8 re-engining already ongoing.
fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.
OCR for page 175
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft
TABLE G-6 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Table 5-9 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, at a Burdened Fuel Cost of $20 per Gallona,b
Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination
Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c
Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c
100%
90%
50%
100%
90%
50%
Re-engining
C-130H/AE 2100d
4.2
4.5
7.2
10,877
9,666
4,821
C-130H/PW150d
4.7
5.1
7.8
9,567
8,486
4,161
B-1/F119/5.0
12.6
13.7
23.0
927
705
−183
E-3/CFM56-2B-1
7.1
7.5
10.4
955
843
394
E-3/JT8D-219
11.1
11.9
17.1
366
306
69
E-3/CFM56-7B22
5.7
5.9
7.9
1,673
1,492
768
E-8/CFM56-2B-1e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/JT8D-219e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/CFM56-7B22e
–
–
–
–
–
–
KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1
10.8
11.6
17.1
1,160
968
200
KC-135D/E: JT8D-219
15.8
17.0
26.4
352
225
−284
KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22
8.7
9.2
13.2
2,057
1,781
675
B-52/F117-PW-100 [4]
6.1
6.4
8.6
4,126
3,687
1,785
B-52/CF34-10A [8]
8.8
9.3
13.0
2,336
2,030
806
B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4]
5.5
5.9
7.7
4,742
4,229
2,178
C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f
–
–
–
–
–
–
Engine modification
KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod)
15.4
16.8
28.0
580
364
−497
C-130H: T56-A427 Modd
4.5
4.9
7.5
5,731
5,093
2,540
C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd
6.5
7.1
9.7
3,277
2,884
1,313
B-1/F101 Mod
4.3
4.3
5.3
2,807
2,542
1,482
KC-10/CF6-50 Mod
3.1
3.1
3.3
460
445
384
NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005.
aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report.
bThe direct fuel cost component of $20.00 increases at 6 percent per year, and the overhead increases at 3 percent per year.
cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point.
dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions.
eE-8 re-engining already ongoing.
fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.
OCR for page 176
Improving the Efficiency of Engines for Large Nonfighter Aircraft
TABLE G-7 Sensitivity of NPV Results in Table 5-9 to Realizing 100%, 90%, and 50% of Baseline Expectations for Fuel Savings, at a Burdened Fuel Cost of $40 per Gallona,b
Candidate Aircraft/Engine Combination
Time to Recoup Investment (yr)c
Cash Flow at 20-yr Point (million $)c
100%
90%
50%
100%
90%
50%
Re-engining
C-130H/AE 2100d
2.5
2.9
4.2
22,373
20,012
10,570
C-130H/PW150d
3.1
3.3
4.7
19,832
17,724
9,293
B-1/F119/5.0
7.8
8.3
12.8
3,041
2,607
874
E-3/CFM56-2B-1
5.2
5.4
7.1
2,023
1,804
928
E-3/JT8D-219
7.4
7.9
11.2
930
814
351
E-3/CFM56-7B22
4.0
4.2
5.7
3,397
3,043
1,630
E-8/CFM56-2B-1e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/JT8D-219e
–
–
–
–
–
–
E-8/CFM56-7B22e
–
–
–
–
–
–
KC-135D/E: CFM56-2B-1
7.3
7.7
10.9
2,987
2,612
1,113
KC-135D/E: JT8D-219
9.9
10.6
16.0
1,563
1,314
321
KC-135D/E: CFM56-7B22
6.2
6.5
8.8
4,686
4,147
1,990
B-52/F117-PW-100 [4]
3.9
4.2
6.1
8,683
7,755
4,046
B-52/CF34-10A [8]
6.3
6.6
8.8
5,248
4,650
2,261
B-52/CFM56-5C2 [4]
3.6
3.8
5.5
9,618
8,617
4,616
C-5/CF6-80C2 (F103-GE-102)f
–
–
–
–
–
–
Engine modification
KC-135R/T: CFM56-2B-1 (Mod)
9.4
10.1
15.7
2,629
2,209
527
C-130H: T56-A427 Modd
3.1
3.2
4.5
11,788
10,544
5,569
C-130H: T56-S3.5 Modd
4.0
4.3
6.5
7,004
6,239
3,177
B-1/F101 Mod
4.1
4.1
4.3
5,317
4,801
2,737
KC-10/CF6-50 Mod
3.0
3.0
3.1
606
576
457
NOTE: The engine cost estimates presented are derived from correlations developed for historical military engines and may not reflect the current fair market prices of commercial engines considered in this study. Engine cost estimates vary widely, and the estimates presented may vary by as much as 100 percent from estimates developed by other independent sources such as the IBA Engine Value Book 2005 as reported by Euromoney Institutional Investor, May 1, 2005.
aValues corrected after release of the January 31, 2007, prepublication version of the report.
bThe direct fuel cost component of $40.00 increases at 6 percent per year, and the overhead increases at 3 percent per year.
cShading indicates a recouping of investment costs in less than 20 years and thus a positive cash flow at the 20-year point.
dThe fuel savings noted for the C-130 with new or modified engines are based on the aircraft being flown at the optimal altitude and airspeed for the selected engines and propellers. The flexibility exists in most C-130 missions for the aircraft to be operated at the best range or fuel consumption conditions. The other aircraft and engines considered in the study are operated at their prescribed mission conditions.
eE-8 re-engining already ongoing.
fC-5 re-engining already ongoing.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
engine cost
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