FIGURE 1 Shares of world GDP, 1960-2002.

to China and India. Finally, he noted that he would make some hypothetical projections intended to stimulate discussion.

Beginning with a chart showing changes in the relative size of different world economic groups between 1960 and 2002 (Figure 14), Dr. Dahlman pointed out that the United States’ share of global GDP fell from 30 percent at the start of that period to around 27 percent by its end. Meanwhile, Japan’s share rose, particularly during the 1970s and 1980s, drawing the attention of its economic competitors. As the 1990s began, however, Japan “got stuck,” said Dr. Dahlman, while the United States, whose share of worldwide GDP fell below 25 percent by 1991, began an economic recovery. In the meantime, the share of global GDP of the remaining OECD countries had shrunk more than that of the United States. Significantly, he added that the only region of the globe to record a continuous increase in its share of world GDP was East Asia (excluding Japan).

Rapid Growth of Chinese, Indian Economies

Dr. Dahlman’s next graph, covering the period 1990-2002, assigned per capita GDP to the horizontal axis and average annual growth rate per capita to the


Throughout this volume all dollars are U.S. unless otherwise indicated.

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