ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENTS LESSONS LEARNED
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. NASW-01008 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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COMMITTEE ON ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
GUY P. BRASSEUR (Chair),
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
KATHARINE L. JACOBS (Vice-chair),
Arizona Water Institute, Tucson
ERIC J. BARRON,
The University of Texas, Austin
RICHARD BENEDICK,
Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland
WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES,
Environmental Defense, New York, New York
THOMAS DIETZ,
Michigan State University, East Lansing
PATRICIA ROMERO LANKAO,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MACK MCFARLAND,
DuPont Fluoroproducts, Wilmington, Delaware
HAROLD A. MOONEY,
Stanford University, California
RAVI V. NATHAN,
ACE USA Global Weather, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
EDWARD A. PARSON,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RICHARD RICHELS,
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Washington, D.C.
BASC Liaison
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
NRC Staff
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Study Director
AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Program Officer
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate
RACHAEL SHIFLETT, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND (Chair),
University of California, Irvine
M. JOAN ALEXANDER,
NorthWest Research Associates/CORA, Boulder, Colorado
MICHAEL L. BENDER,
Princeton University, New Jersey
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
CAROL ANNE CLAYSON,
Florida State University, Tallahassee
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KERRY A. EMANUEL,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
DENNIS L. HARTMANN,
University of Washington, Seattle
PETER R. LEAVITT,
Weather Information Inc., Newton, Massachusetts
VERNON R. MORRIS,
Howard University, Washington, D.C.
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
Ex Officio Members
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR.,
University of Maryland, College Park
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Program Officer
CURTIS MARSHALL, Program Officer
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Program Officer
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer
LEAH PROBST, Research Associate
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant
RACHAEL SHIFLETT, Senior Program Assistant
KATIE WELLER, Senior Program Assistant
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Coordinator
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
Preface
Communication between scientists and decision makers has always been a challenge. The two communities use different languages and have different needs. Before scientists can convey their information, which usually appears in the peer-reviewed literature, to decision makers, it needs to be synthesized and integrated so that relevant facts can be communicated in a useful form. Assessments are evaluation and consensus building processes for establishing an integrated view of recent scientific break-throughs and providing policy-relevant information to decision makers. For assessments to be effective and credible, the process has to be open and must provide accurate, useful, and scientifically tested information.
During the last four decades, many assessments have been produced to address important questions related to environmental issues such as ozone depletion, climate change, and the loss of biodiversity. Many of these assessments have been conducted at the international level and have provided the scientific basis for the elaboration of international agreements such as the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), and the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1997). They gave scientists the opportunity to develop networks of expertise and to provide the latest information to policy makers in many countries. Assessments have become a common activity, but their success depends on a number of conditions. This report analyzes conditions that contribute to successful assessments.
In the United States, the first national assessment focused specifically on climate change was conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program and completed in October 2000. A second round of assessment was initiated in 2002 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). Recently, the research community and the CCSP leadership agreed that it would be valuable to evaluate the assessment process itself to learn from various past efforts in conducting assessments with the goal of guiding future assessment activities. Therefore, in the spring of 2004 the CCSP asked the National Academies to look at lessons learned from past global change assessments (see Appendix A for the Statement of Task). In response, an ad hoc committee of 12 members was formed (see Appendix E for the committee’s composition and biographies). The committee was charged with undertaking a comparative analysis of past global change assessments with goals similar to the CCSP to identify strengths and weaknesses in the process. Based on that analysis, the committee was asked to provide CCSP with advice on its approach to future assessment activities.
The committee held five meetings to gather information and deliberate on its findings and recommendations. During the first meeting, the committee met with CCSP representatives to discuss the committee’s charge and with scholars to learn from past evaluations of global change assessments. At its second meeting, additional scholars were consulted for their analysis of assessment processes. In addition, renowned leaders of assessment processes were invited to reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of the processes in which they were involved. Stakeholders from the private sector and from regional to federal government were invited to the third and fourth meetings to discuss design issues that could foster effective engagement of user communities and ensure that assessments meet the needs of the target audience. As an example of an international approach, the committee heard from German scientists about their global change assessment processes during its fourth meeting. The final meeting was reserved for closed committee deliberation and report development.
I would like to thank all of the individuals who shared their knowledge and experience with members of our committee and assisted us in gathering the information needed to formulate sound recommendations. The committee is to be complemented for its diligence and commitment to this study. I thank, in particular, the vice-chair Katharine L. Jacobs, who assisted me in organizing the work of the committee and in chairing some of the sessions.
It is also a pleasure to recognize the outstanding work of the study director, Dr. Claudia Mengelt, who did a superb job in the conduct of the present study and was assisted very effectively by senior program assistant Rachael Shiflett at the National Research Council.
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Patricia Anderson, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Scott Barrett, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C.
Ann Bostrom, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Brian Flannery, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Clinton, New Jersey
Gerald Galloway, University of Maryland, College Park
Henry Jacoby, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Jennifer Logan, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Michael C. MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, D.C.
M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Roger Pulwarty, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Thomas Graedel, Yale University, and Debra Knopman, The RAND Corporation; appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The committee would also like to thank the many individuals who contributed during the committee’s information gathering phase especially: Stephen O. Anderson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Dan Basketfield, Senior Water Resources Engineer, Seattle Public Utilities; Tom Buschatzke, Water Advisor, City of Phoenix; William Clark, Harvard University; Robert Corell, National Science Foundation, retired; William Fang, Edison Electric Institute; John H. Gibbons, Resource Strategies; Hartmut Grassl, University of Hamburg, Germany; Bryan Hannegan, formerly Council on Environmental Quality; Tony Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute; Jim Jensen, National Academies; James Mahoney, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, retired; Susi Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Walt Reid, Packard Foundation; Sam Sadler, Oregon Department of Energy; John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute für Klima, Germany; Peter Schultz, Climate Change Science Program; Truman Semans, Pew Center; Margaret Spring, U.S. Senate staff; Stacy VanDeveer, University of New Hampshire; Bob Watson, World Bank; and Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.