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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, “Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making” C Committee and Staff Biographies Carol Anne Clayson (Chair) is Associate Professor in the Department of Meteorology at Florida State University and is Director for the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute. From 1995-2001, she was an assistant and associate professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Purdue University. Dr. Clayson's research interests are in air-sea interaction, ocean and atmosphere boundary layers, numerical ocean and coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling, and remote sensing of air-sea surface fluxes. She was the recipient in 2000 of a Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE) and an Office of Naval Research Young Investigator Award. She was also the recipient in 1996 of an National Science Foundation (NSF) career award. Her professional service activities include: program chair for the 12th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference on Air-Sea Interactions (2003); membership on a number of committees and working groups including AMS Committee on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere; AMS Board of Meteorological and Oceanographic Education in Universities; and NASA TRMM Science Team. Dr. Clayson has been the chair of the GEWEX SEAFLUX project dedicated to producing climatologies of air-sea heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes since 2005. She is a member of the AMS, the American Geophysical Union (AGU), and the Oceanography Society. Dr. Clayson is a member of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and several NRC committees, including the Committee on Earth Studies, the Committee on the Future of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and the Committee to Review the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan (2003). Tom Buschatzke, Water Resource Management Advisor to the City of Phoenix, is responsible for policy development for management of the City’s water resources and works with City executive staff, the City Manager, the Mayor, and with members of City Council on a variety of water issues. He was recently appointed by Arizona Governor Napolitano to the Arizona Water Banking Authority, a state entity responsible for storing water supplies underground in central Arizona. Mr. Buschatzke also serves as the City’s liaison with the Salt River Project, the Central Arizona Project, and the Arizona Department of Water Resources. Presently, Mr. Buschatzke is on the Governor’s Colorado River Advisory Council; the Statewide Water Advisory Group; and the Board of Director’s of the Western Urban Water Coalition where he serves as Chair of their
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, “Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making” Endangered Species Act Committee. Tom holds a Bachelor of Science in Geology from the State University of New York and has in Geology at Arizona State University. He has extensive knowledge of the City’s water rights and has worked on negotiations for the Gila River Indian Community Water Rights Settlement; Plan 6 modifications to Roosevelt Dam; Endangered Species Act impacts on the City’s water supply; the Arizona Groundwater Management Act; water delivery contracts with SRP; Colorado River issues and a variety of other water resources issues, contracts, and planning activities with local and regional implications. Radford Byerly, Jr. is a research scientist at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado. He formerly worked at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (then the National Bureau of Standards) in the environmental measurement and fire research programs; he served as chief of staff of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science and Technology; and he was director of the University of Colorado's Center for Space and Geosciences Policy. He served as a member of NASA's Space Science and Space Station Advisory Committees and served on NSF site visit committees and review panels. Dr. Byerly was a member of the NRC Space Studies Board and served on the Committee on the Scientific Context for Space Exploration (2004-2005), the Committee on Principles and Operational Strategies for Staged Repository Systems (2001-2003), the Committee on Building a Long-Term Environmental Quality Research and Development Program in the U.S. Department of Energy (2000-2001), and the Board on Assessment of National Institute of Standards and Technology Programs (1995-2000). Heidi Cullen is the climate expert at The Weather Channel and has the key responsibility of adding explanation, depth and perspective to climate stories for The Weather Channel network and other platforms. Dr. Cullen most recently was a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO. She has done research in the U.S. Southwest and the Middle East, publishing on domestic and international climate topics. As a post-doc, she received a NOAA Climate & Global Change Fellowship and spent two years working at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction. She received a B.S. in Engineering/Operations Research from Columbia University in NYC and went on to receive a Ph.D. in climatology and ocean-atmosphere dynamics at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. Her dissertation focused on trying to understand the impacts and dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Ann-Margaret Esnard joined Florida Atlantic University’s Department of Urban and Regional Planning in August 2005 as an Associate Professor and Director of the Visual Planning Technology Lab (VPTLAB). Dr. Esnard’s expertise encompasses GIS/spatial analysis, coastal vulnerability assessment, land use planning, and disaster planning. Dr. Esnard is the co-author of the Hypothetical City Workbook (with Edward Kaiser, Dave Godschalk, and Philip Berke) and has written on other topics that include quality of life and holistic disaster recovery, spatial analysis of New York metropolitan urban
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, “Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making” expansion, vulnerability assessments of coastal and flood hazards), public participation GIS, environmental justice, GIS education, and ethics. Dr. Esnard served on the NRC's Disaster Roundtable Steering Committee from 2002 - 2004. Her multidisciplinary background in Regional Planning (Ph.D.), Agronomy and Soils (M.S.) and Agricultural Engineering (B.Sc.) is tied together by a computer applications theme and a fundamental belief in appropriate technologies and techniques, as well as a holistic approach to improving natural, physical and social conditions in both urban and rural communities. Roger E. Kasperson (NAS) is a research professor and distinguished scientist at Clark University. While at Clark University, he also directed the Stockholm Research Institute from 1999 to 2002. He holds a Ph.D. in geography from the University of Chicago. He has written widely on issues connected with risk analysis and communication, global environmental change, and environmental policy. Dr. Kasperson has served as a consultant or advisor to federal agencies and private entities on energy and environmental issues. Notable committee appointments include the Potsdam Institute of Climate Change Research Science Advisory Board, the U.K. Tyndall Institute for Climate Change Scientific Advisory Committee, and the NRC Committee on the Human Dimension of Global Change. He has been honored for his hazards research by the Association of American Geographers, and made a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the Society for Risk Analysis for his contributions to the field of risk analysis. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences. Elizabeth L. Malone is a senior research scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute in College Park, MD. The institute is a partnership between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Maryland. Dr. Malone's interests focus on policy-relevant social science research in global change issues, developing studies that integrate disparate worldviews, data sources, and scientific approaches. Her work has contributed to linkages among global environmental change, globalization, economic development, equity, and sustainability. She is the co-editor of Human Choice and Climate Change, a four-volume assessment of social science research relevant to global climate change, and co-author, with Steve Rayner, of the summary volume and an invited paper for Nature on the conclusions. She has published papers on globalization and climate change, vulnerability to climate change, scenario development, and the role of science in developing global environmental policy. In June 2005. Dr. Malone received the NSF Director's Award for Collaborative Integration for her work on the Human and Social Dynamics Priority Area Team while she was on an Intergovernmental Personnel Act assignment to NSF. Franklin W. Nutter has been president of the Reinsurance Association of America (RAA) since May of 1991. Mr. Nutter currently serves on the Board of Trustees of the Bermuda Biological Station for Research; the Board of the International Hurricane Research Center; the Advisory Board of the Center for Health and the Global Environment, an adjunct to the Harvard University Medical School; and the Board of the University Center for Atmospheric Research. Mr. Nutter has a Juris Doctorate from the
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, “Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making” Georgetown University Law Center and a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Cincinnati. He was also a member of the NRC's Panel on Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability. Jennifer Phillips obtained her Ph.D. in Environmental Biophysics and plant/water relations in the Department of Soil, Crop and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University in 1994. She is an Assistant Professor at the Bard Center for Environmental Policy, Bard College. Formerly, she worked at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, and at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Her research interests include the impact of climate change and variability on farming systems, communication and perception of climate information for farm management, individual and group process in decision making, and sustainable farming systems. After eight years of research in eastern and southern Africa, she is now working with farmers in eastern New York State on climate risk management, adaptation to climate change and sustainability in the face of extreme climate events in collaboration with scientists from Columbia University. Dr. Phillips' publications include articles in Agricultural Systems, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Climatology, and International Journal of Climatology. Henry N. Pollack has been a Professor of Geophysics at the University of Michigan for more than 40 years. In the scientific community, he has earned a reputation as an expert on the temperature of the Earth, both today and in the geological past. An award-winning teacher with a gift for explaining science to non-scientists, Dr. Pollack has taken a special interest in helping leaders in government, business, and the general public understand the scientific developments associated with global climate change. Over the course of his career, he has educated generations of students, published widely in scientific journals, led his department as chairman, served as an advisor to NSF, testified before Congress, and launched the first international efforts to coordinate research into geothermal evidence of global climate change. He is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Geophysical Union and the Geological Society of America, and was a member of the NRC’s U.S. Geodynamics Committee. He is the author of “Uncertain Science… Uncertain World” (Cambridge University Press, 2003). Stephen H. Schneider (NAS), the Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, has been a professor of Biological Sciences and Professor by Courtesy in the Department of Civil Engineering at Stanford University since September, 1992. He is a Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the Center for Environmental Science and Policy in the Woods Institute for the Environment. Dr. Schneider received his Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and Plasma Physics from Columbia University in 1971. In 1975, he founded the interdisciplinary journal, Climatic Change and continues to serve as its Editor. Dr. Schneider was elected to membership in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in April 2002. He has served on numerous NRC committees, including Section 63: Environmental Sciences and Ecology and Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change. He is a Coordinating Lead Author in Working Group II of the
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, “Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program) from 1997 to the present (including AR4, the Fourth Assessment Report currently in preparation for 2007) and was a Lead Author in Working Group I from 1994-1996. He was also a lead author of the IPCC guidance paper on uncertainties. He is a member of the CEC California Climate Change Advisory Committee to advise the Governor and state agencies on climate change policy. Dr. Schneider received both the National Conservation Achievement Award from the National Wildlife Federation and the Edward T. Law Roe Award of the Society of Conservation Biology in 2003, and he and his spouse-collaborator, Terry Root, jointly received the Banksia Foundation’s International Environmental Award in 2006 in Australia. Dr. Schneider's current global change research interests include: climatic change; climatic modeling; global warming; ecological and economic implications of climatic change; integrated assessment of global change policy; uncertainties; dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system, and abrupt climate change. Andrew R. Solow is a Senior Scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution where he also directs the Marine Policy Center. Solow is a statistician, specializing in environmental and ecological statistics. His recent work in the area of climate has focused on reconstructions based on proxy records and characterizing ENSO variability. Solow is a former member of the NRC Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources and has served on a number of NRC committees including one reviewing the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan. STAFF Chris Elfring is director of the Polar Research Board (PRB) and the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC). She is responsible for all aspects of strategic planning, project development and oversight, financial management, and personnel for both units. Since joining the PRB in 1996, Ms. Elfring has overseen or directed studies that produced the following reports: Frontiers in Polar Biology in the Genomics Era (2003), Cumulative Environmental Impacts of Oil and Gas Activities on Alaska’s North Slope (2003), A Century of Ecosystem Science: Planning Long-term Research in the Gulf of Alaska (2002), and Enhancing NASA’s Contributions to Polar Science (2001). In addition, she is responsible for the Board’s activities as the U.S. National Committee to the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research. Curtis H. Marshall is a Program Officer with the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. He received B.S. (1995) and M.S. (1998) degrees in meteorology from the University of Oklahoma, and a Ph.D. (2004) in Atmospheric Science from Colorado State University. His Doctoral research examined the impact of anthropogenic land-use change on the mesoscale climate of the Florida peninsula. Prior to joining the staff of BASC in 2006, he was employed as a research scientist in the National Oceanic and
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, “Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making” Atmospheric Administration, where he focused on the development of coupled atmosphere – land surface models. Katherine Weller is a Senior Program Assistant for the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) and the Polar Research Board (PRB). In 2004, she received her B.S. from the University of Michigan in Biopsychology. She is currently working toward a master’s degree in Environmental Science and Policy from Johns Hopkins University. Since her start at the National Academies in June 2006, Ms. Weller has been working on a study involving the scientific accomplishments of satellite observations, a review of the U.S. CCSP’s SAP 3.3, and the Climate Research Committee.
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, “Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making” D Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2STATEMENT OF TASK This committee will review the U.S. CCSP's draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 entitled "Best-Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decision Making." The purpose of SAP 5.2 is to synthesize the current state of understanding about the characteristics and implications of uncertainty related to climate change and variability, and provide recommendations for best practices for characterizing, analyzing and communicating that uncertainty. The role of the National Academies committee will be to provide a peer review of CCSP SAP 5.2. The committee will address the following issues: Are the goals, objectives, terminology, and intended audience of the product clearly described in the document? Does the product address all questions outlined in the prospectus? Are any findings and/or recommendations adequately supported by evidence and analysis? In cases where recommendations might be based on expert value judgments or the collective opinions of the authors, is this acknowledged and supported by sound reasoning? Are the data and analyses handled in a competent manner? Are statistical methods applied appropriately? Are the document's presentation, level of technicality, and organization effective? Are the questions outlined in the prospectus addressed and communicated in a manner that is appropriate and accessible for the intended audience? Is the document scientifically objective and policy neutral? Is it consistent with the scientific literature? How do the conclusions and general approaches for addressing uncertainty compare with those embraced by other treatments of the topic (e.g., IPCC, NRC activities)? Are differences supported by explicit and sound reasoning? Is there a summary that effectively, concisely and accurately describes the key findings and recommendations? Is it consistent with other sections of the document? What other significant improvements, if any, might be made in the document?
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Representative terms from entire chapter: