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Appendix B Supplemental Information on Human Contributions and Responses T he National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change (CHDGC) asked the nine Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) agencies with programs in the human contributions and responses research element to provide a list of relevant activities and their annual cost (Table B.1). Estimating their an- nual funding levels for human dimensions work proved difficult for every agency for two reasons: 1. Considerable ambiguity exists in what constitutes “human dimen- sions” work. 2. Current agency accounting systems are inadequate to make de- tailed cost estimates. The boundaries of what is variously labeled “human dimensions,” “human contributions and responses,” and “decision support and related research on human contributions and responses” are not well defined in CCSP documents, and differences in agencies’ interpretations of these terms substantially influenced their budget estimates. For the agency question- naire, the CHDGC defined the field as covering human systems as driving forces for climate change, impacts of climate change on human systems, responses by human systems to climate change and its observed or antici- pated impacts, and decision support frameworks to inform and facilitate appropriate responses. Decision support can include any effort to provide information to inform decision making. However, the CCSP appears to have adopted a 1

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1 APPENDIX B narrower definition, which restricts decision support efforts to those aimed at producing information in forms and from sources that decision makers find useful (i.e., the development of decision support tools and information must begin with a consideration of users’ needs). A related but separate question is whether operational decision support—primarily a communi- cations function—qualifies as human dimensions work. Agencies generally agreed that their budget estimates for human dimensions work would increase substantially if they included funding for decision support under its broadest definition.

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15 APPENDIX B TABLE B.1 Budgets and Examples Programs of CCSP Agencies Supporting Human Dimensions Research Annual Agency Budget Example Programs CDC $1 K to Agency priorities include understanding the human $1 Ma health consequences of extreme temperature, extreme weather, climate-induced changes in vectors of human disease, and climate-induced changes in food- and water- borne infectious disease Example program: Developing an “Extreme Heat Events Guidebook” with the EPA and National Weather Service USDA Forest $1 K to The Resource Planning Act Assessment requires the $1 Mb Service Forest Service to address climate change in its analysis of resource status and trends across all U.S. forests and grasslands Example program: Incorporating climate change science into management, mitigation, and adaptation strategies for natural resources DOE $3 M The Integrated Assessment Program integrates greenhouse gas emissions and actions that would affect emissions into simplified representations of the global climate system. The program connects the underlying Earth and climate sciences to the human dimensions and socioeconomics of future options and choices. Example programs: • Creation of two major integrated assessment modeling teams, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory • Determination of the model parameter values that produce simulations with a range consistent with historical variability in economic growth and energy efficiency improvements • Development of a small number of multi-gas emissions scenarios for further research and decision support • Efforts to incorporate purchasing power parity (PPP) specifications for regional output and behavioral relationships into integrated economic and geophysical models of the economics of climate change, and to test the difference between PPP and market exchange rates specifications • Development of a spatially explicit emissions data set that would include developing countries Continued

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1 APPENDIX B TABLE B.1 Continued Annual Agency Budget Example Programs EPA $1 M to Priorities include improving characterizations of the $10 Mc potential impacts of global change on air quality, water quality, and aquatic ecosystems to inform managers responsible for implementing Title I of the Clean Air Act and Title III (Standards and Enforcement) of the Clean Water Act. Example programs: • An assessment of how technology alters pollution from mobile sources • A study of the impacts of climate change on surface water users of the Roaring Fork Watershed in Colorado • A study on the impact of climate change and variability on human health • A preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources • A project on decision support systems involving climate change and public health • The development and compilation of socioeconomic scenarios • Potential costs associated with climate impacts on publicly owned treatment works • Analyses of the effects of global change on human systems and human health and welfare • Development of integrated climate and land use change scenarios for the lower 48 states $0d NASA All programs appear to be focused on decision support Example programs (decision support): • The NASA-CDC Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange, Atlanta (HELIX-Atlanta) demonstration project uses satellite observations of ozone, aerosols, and other environmental factors that can affect public health to create enhanced air quality products for emergency care providers • The SERVIR Regional Visualization and Monitoring System for Mesoamerica provides support for environmental management and disaster response by providing access to satellite and other data sets as well as a range of decision support tools

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1 APPENDIX B TABLE B.1 Continued Annual Agency Budget Example Programs NOAA $6.6 M The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program funds multidisciplinary research on how climate affects resources and how climate information could assist decision makers in the region. The Sectoral Applications Research Program funds improved decision support for climate-related issues in key socioeconomic sectors. Example programs: • The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy seeks to quantify actual and potential impacts of changes in the seasonality of weather and climate on Alaskan people and ecosystems • The California Applications Program studies the impacts of climate variability and change in California and the surrounding area, with an eye toward improving the climate information available to decision makers in key sectors such as water, human health, and wildfire • The Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments project investigates ways to present climate research that is relevant to water resource policy and to increase decision-makers’ understanding of climate variability, forecast uncertainty, and risks associated with forecast failure • The Climate Impacts Group works to increase the resilience of the region to climate change through research and working with planners and policy makers to apply climate information to regional decision-making processes, particularly in the areas of water resources, aquatic ecosystems, forests, and coastal systems • The Climate Assessment for the Southwest project investigates climate variability in rural and urban areas, climate impacts on water resources, water policy, and wildland fire, and how to improve climate inputs for drought planning • The Pacific Islands RISA works in close collaboration with stakeholders in water and natural resources, agriculture, tourism, and public health to reduce vulnerability to climate-related events such as drought, floods, and tropical cyclones • The Southeast Climate Consortium is working to develop methods that can translate regional climate forecasts into local forecasts linked with crop and hydrology models in an attempt to reduce the vulnerability of agriculture, forestry, and water resources to climate variability Continued

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1 APPENDIX B TABLE B.1 Continued Annual Agency Budget Example Programs NOAA • The Western Water Assessment provides vulnerability assessments, climate forecasts, and (continued) paleoclimate studies to water resource managers to aid in addressing issues relating to climate change and variability • An analysis of how increased or improved use of climate information can lead to better, more cost-effective water resource management • An attempt to demonstrate that climate-based hydrologic forecasts will improve water resource management • Identification of the constraints and opportunities at institutional and community levels for improving surface water management by using seasonal climate forecasts • A multidisciplinary assessment of the hydrologic and agricultural vulnerabilities of the Missouri River Basin and their economic consequences • Integration of NOAA climate forecast information into short- and long-term water resource decisions • Assessment of the impacts of drought on the economies of Colorado, Nebraska, and New Mexico • Evaluation of mechanisms for incorporating climate information into humanitarian relief and reconstruction programs • Application of a suite of satellite observation and forecast products to develop and evaluate coral bleaching forecast tools • Identification of current and future thermal stress risks of coral reefs in Southeast Asia to help develop conservation programs • Development of tools that will allow managers to strengthen the resiliency of the coral reef system $8 Me NSF Research support is focused on different aspects of decision making under uncertainty associated with climate change, as well as basic science on how people interact with natural systems in general Example programs under Decision Making Under Uncertainty centers: • Decision Center for a Desert City: use of models of decision science, studies of the cognitive processes by which individuals and water managers make decisions, and development of decision support tools and models to improve water management decisions in central Arizona

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1 APPENDIX B TABLE B.1 Continued Annual Agency Budget Example Programs NSF • Climate Decision Making Center: development of methods to characterize irreducible uncertainties about (continued) climate and the future of the energy system, to evaluate decision strategies incorporating these uncertainties, and to evaluate the social consequences of management decisions • Improving Decisions in a Complex and Changing World: studies of ways to represent uncertainty for decision makers, including the best tools and methods for making these representations • Center for Research on Environmental Decisions: studies of decision processes that underlie human adaptation to uncertainty and change, particularly with relation to climate • Science Policy Assessment and Research on Climate: exploration of how climate change research agendas are developed with respect to the informational needs of decision makers, and studies of how the U.S. climate science portfolio relates to the magnitude of various sources of global change Example basic research programs (individual investigators): • Understanding linkages among human and biogeochemical processes in agricultural landscapes • Feedbacks between complex ecological and social models: urban landscape structure, nitrogen flux, vegetation management, and adoption of design scenarios • The dynamics of human-sea ice relationships: comparing changing environments in Alaska, Nunavut, and Greenland • Understanding and modeling the scope for adaptive management in agroecosystems in the Pampas: response to interannual and decadal climate variability and other risk factors • The role of experience in climate change detection, risk perception, and behavior • Doctoral dissertation research: multilevel modeling of household and accessibility-zone drivers of land change in the northeastern Peruvian Amazon • Disaster, resilience, and the built environment on the Gulf Coast • Improving citizen participation in deliberative decisions: understanding and evaluating different sources of knowledge • Collaborative research: globalization, deforestation, and the cattle sector of the Brazilian Amazon Continued

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150 APPENDIX B TABLE B.1 Continued Annual Agency Budget Example Programs USGS $1.6 M There are no focused programmatic efforts for human dimensions or socioeconomic research relating to climate change. However, socioeconomic research has been identified as a gap in the new USGS strategic science plan for global change activities. Example programs: • The Land Cover Trends project documents the rates, causes, and consequences of land use and land cover change within a geographic framework for the conterminous United States between 1972 and 2000 • The Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure—Gulf Coast Study will identify the potential effects of climate variability and change on transportation infrastructure and systems in the central U.S. Gulf Coast. The project will develop decision support tools to assist transportation decision makers. NOTES: CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; DOE = Department of Energy; EPA = Environmental Protection Agency; NASA = National Aeronautics and Space Adminis- tration; NOAA = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; USDA = U.S. Depart- ment of Agriculture; USGS = U.S. Geological Survey. aIt is unclear how much of the estimate represents funding of research related to strato- spheric ozone depletion, which is not an element of climate change per se. The CDC has no funding specifically allocated to climate change. bFunding reported is limited to the Forest Service. EPA has funded additional Forest Service work on models to predict land use change and assess policy options for climate change; that work has been reported by the Forest Service land use subgroup. cThe distinctions in the NRC’s categories for human dimensions research were difficult to apply to EPA’s activities. d$89.5 million was appropriated for NASA’s Applied Sciences Program, which supports NASA’s efforts to make the results of Earth science flight missions and research projects avail- able to external users with specific operational requirements. eAn additional $9 million is estimated to support research that may not focus specifically on climate change but deals with broader aspects of human-natural system interaction.