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Appendix C Matrix to Evaluate CCSP Progress 151

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C. Uncertainty, 152 A. Data and B. Understand Predictability, D. Synthesis E. Risk Physical and Represent or Predictive and Management and Question Quantities Processes Capabilities Assessment Decision Support Atmospheric Composition Q 3.1. What are the climate-relevant chemical, microphysical, and optical properties, and spatial and temporal distributions, of human-caused and naturally occurring aerosols? Q 3.2. What are the atmospheric sources and sinks of the greenhouse gases other than CO2 and the implications for the Earth’s energy balance? Q 3.3. What are the effects of regional pollution on the global atmosphere and the effects of global climate and chemical change on regional air quality and atmospheric chemical inputs to ecosystems? Q 3.4. What are the characteristics of the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in response to declining abundances of ozone- depleting gases and increasing abundances of greenhouse gases? Q 3.5. What are the couplings and feedback mechanisms among climate change, air pollution, and ozone layer depletion, and their relationship to the health of humans and ecosystems?

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Climate Variability and Change Q 4.1. To what extent can uncertainties in model projections due to climate system feedbacks be reduced? Q 4.2. How can predictions of climate variability and projections of climate change be improved, and what are the limits of their predictability? Q 4.3. What is the likelihood of abrupt changes in the climate system such as the collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation, inception of a decades-long mega-drought, or rapid melting of the major ice sheets? Q 4.4. How are extreme events, such as droughts, floods, wildfires, heat waves, and hurricanes, related to climate variability and change? Q 4.5. How can information on climate variability and change be most efficiently developed, integrated with non-climatic knowledge, and communicated in order to best serve societal needs? Water Cycle Q 5.1. What are the mechanisms and processes responsible for the maintenance and variability of the water cycle; are the characteristics of the cycle changing and, if so, to what extent are human activities 15 responsible for those changes?

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C. Uncertainty, 15 A. Data and B. Understand Predictability, D. Synthesis E. Risk Physical and Represent or Predictive and Management and Question Quantities Processes Capabilities Assessment Decision Support Q 5.2. How do feedback processes control the interactions between the global water cycle and other parts of the climate system (e.g., carbon cycle, energy), and how are these feedbacks changing over time? Q 5.3. What are the key uncertainties in seasonal-to-interannual predictions and long- term projections of water cycle variables, and what improvements are needed in global and regional models to reduce these uncertainties? Q 5.4. What are the consequences over a range of space and time scales of water cycle variability and change for human societies and ecosystems, and how do they interact with the Earth system to affect sediment transport and nutrient and biogeochemical cycles? Q 5.5. How can global water cycle information be used to inform decision processes in the context of changing water resource conditions and policies? Land Use/Land Cover Change Q 6.1. What tools or methods are needed to better characterize historic and current land use and land cover attributes and dynamics?

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Q 6.2. What are the primary drivers of land- use and land-cover change? Q 6.3. What will land use and land cover patterns and characteristics be 5 to 50 years into the future? Q 6.4. How do climate variability and change affect land use and land cover, and what are the potential feedbacks of changes in land use and land cover to climate? Q 6.5. What are the environmental, social, economic, and human health consequences of current and potential land use and land cover change over the next 5 to 50 years? Carbon Cycle Q 7.1. What are the magnitudes and distributions of North American carbon sources and sinks on seasonal-to-centennial time scales, and what are the processes controlling their dynamics? Q 7.2. What are the magnitudes and distributions of ocean carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales, and what are the processes controlling their dynamics? Q 7.3. What are the effects on carbon sources and sinks of past, present, and future land use change and resource management practices at local, regional, and global scales? 155

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C. Uncertainty, 15 A. Data and B. Understand Predictability, D. Synthesis E. Risk Physical and Represent or Predictive and Management and Question Quantities Processes Capabilities Assessment Decision Support Q 7.4. How do global terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric carbon sources and sinks change on seasonal-to-centennial time scales, and how can this knowledge be integrated to quantify and explain annual global carbon budgets? Q 7.5. What will be the future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other carbon-containing greenhouse gases, and how will terrestrial and marine carbon sources and sinks change in the future? Q 7.6. How will the Earth system, and its different components, respond to various options for managing carbon in the environment, and what scientific information is needed for evaluating these options? Ecosystems Q 8.1. What are the most important feedbacks between ecological systems and global change (especially climate), and what are their quantitative relationships? Q 8.2. What are the potential consequences of global change for ecological systems?

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Q 8.3. What are the options for sustaining and improving ecological systems and related goods and services, given projected global changes? Human Contributions and Responses Q 9.1. What are the magnitudes, interrelationships, and significance of primary human drivers of and their potential impact on global environmental change? Q 9.2. What are the current and potential future impacts of global environmental variability and change on human welfare, what factors influence the capacity of human societies to respond to change, and how can resilience be increased and vulnerability reduced? Q 9.3. How can the methods and capabilities for societal decision making under conditions of complexity and uncertainty about global environmental variability and change be enhanced? Q 9.4. What are the potential human health effects of global environmental change, and what climate, socioeconomic, and environmental information is needed to assess the cumulative risk to health from these effects? 15

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