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5
Progress Toward the
Cross-Cutting Issues
A
critical role of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is to co-
ordinate activities “to achieve results that no single agency, or small
group of agencies, could attain” (CCSP, 2003, p. 3). Six cross-cutting
issues—observations and monitoring, data management, modeling, decision
support resources, communications, and international cooperation—lay the
foundation for achieving this integration. Each of these cross-cuts is guided
by an interagency working group (IWG), although some working groups
handle two areas (Figure 1.2): decision support resources is combined with
human contributions and responses, modeling is combined with climate
variability and change, and data management is a subgroup of observations
and monitoring.
This chapter describes the committee’s preliminary assessment of prog-
ress in the 22 goals of the CCSP cross-cutting issues. The assessment was
based on analysis of the columns of the matrix used to evaluate the research
questions (Chapter 4), as well as presentations by CCSP interagency work-
ing groups, CCSP publications and web sites, and the scientific literature.
Given the breadth and generality of these cross-cutting goals, it was difficult
to assign meaningful scores. Thus, in most cases, only the commentary ap-
pears below.
OBSERVATIONS, MONITORING, AND DATA MANAGEMENT
One of the four core approaches of the CCSP is “to enhance observa-
tions and data management systems to generate a comprehensive set of vari-
ables needed for climate related research” (CCSP, 2003). The overarching
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100 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP
challenge is that the existing global observation system is an incomplete and
distributed set of remote and in situ components, managed and operated by
different agencies and international partners with different objectives (e.g.,
research, weather forecasting, resource management). Data derived from
these observing systems are distributed and archived by multiple agencies,
each with different information management systems. The need to collect
social, economic, and health data to address the human dimensions aspects
of the program adds an additional level of complexity because these data
are outside the purview of agencies traditionally associated with climate
measurements. Moreover, concerns about privacy bring unique challenges
to the collection and dissemination of social science data. Finally, a global
observing system enables the collection of long-term (century or longer)
climate records while remaining sufficiently flexible to respond to changing
observation needs as the science evolves.
Several U.S. agencies are responsible for climate observations and data
management. Total expenditures on observations and data management
are unknown because climate observing programs of agencies other than
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are counted
as research in the CCSP budget tables, and some of the operational systems
which are also used for climate science are not counted at all. Neverthe-
less, it is clear that observations account for a significant fraction of the
total CCSP budget. The NASA space-based observations portion alone was
one-third of the total CCSP budget in Fiscal Year 2006 (CCSP, 2006a) and
more than half of the research element budget (Table 1.1). The program’s
emphasis on satellite observations is proportional to this investment.
The IWG on observations and monitoring provides both a forum to
develop a consensus on the priority requirements for climate observations
and a platform to advocate for resources to enable those climate observa-
tions to be made. Individual federal agencies have their own advisory pro-
cess for addressing observation and data management. External studies of
these programs, especially NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) programs, are common (e.g., NRC, 1998, 2000a-
d, 2001a, 2003d, 2004b, e, 2005a, 2006c, 2007a). As a result, there has
been no shortage of strategic thinking about climate observations and data
management.
Progress Toward the Observations and Monitoring Goals
Investment in NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) in the 1990s has
paid off during the tenure of the CCSP. Some recent highlights include the
creation of science quality time-series data for the ocean, land, and atmo-
sphere from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MO-
DIS); estimates of trends in the Earth radiation budget from Clouds and the
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101
PROGRESS TOWARD THE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES); new cryosphere and freshwater
assessments from IceSat and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment
(GRACE); the first observations of variations across the full solar spectrum
from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE); new results
on ozone, aerosols, and greenhouse gases from Aura; and the first global
cloud and aerosol profile data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared
Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), which enabled new studies of
aerosol sources and transport and aerosol-cloud interactions. New instru-
ments on satellites flown by other agencies have also opened horizons, such
as obtaining temperature profiles from radio occultation on the Global
Positioning System (e.g., Leroy, 1999).
In situ measurements are essential for all of the research elements,
partly for studying processes or areas that cannot be studied from space
(most notably in the oceans), and partly to provide ground truth for the
satellite observations. Networks of in situ observations have been deployed
to monitor conditions at the Earth’s surface and the rates of ocean-atmo-
sphere and land-atmosphere energy exchanges. These networks are linked
to international efforts to determine the budget of trace gas emissions and
the role of oceans and terrestrial ecosystems in climate. Such activities of-
ten contribute to more than one observations and monitoring goal, such
as deploying observation components, integrating modeling activities, and
fostering international cooperation.
12.1. Design, develop, deploy, integrate, and sustain observation compo-
nents into a comprehensive system.
A wide variety of satellite and in situ instruments have been deployed,
but they are operated individually without the framework of a compre-
hensive system. Operational satellite systems have been designed primar-
ily to meet the needs of the National Weather Service and do not carry
instruments capable of producing climate quality data records. In addi-
tion, cancellations of instruments that were to make new climate measure-
ments as part of the National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite System
(NPOESS) or to continue an unbroken time series (e.g., Landsat) threaten
to reduce the overall observing capability of the United States and present
a serious setback to CCSP science objectives (see Chapter 4).
12.2. Accelerate the development and deployment of observing and moni-
toring elements needed for decision support.
Data from operational satellite systems are routinely used to produce in-
formation useful to decision makers, for example by the National Weather
Service. NOAA, through its Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments
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102 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP
(RISA) projects, is developing procedures for improving the use of climate
information in the decision-making process for a number of sectors. NASA’s
Applied Sciences program is aimed at generating new information products
from research satellite systems to meet the needs of decision makers. How-
ever, NASA’s satellite sensors were designed primarily to meet scientific and
technology demonstration objectives, and if observations and monitoring
goal 12.2 is to be achieved, decision support requirements will have to be
factored into the design of future satellite systems. CCSP plans envision
observation networks that support priorities of decision makers, but the
design and implementation of such networks requires coordination with
non-scientist stakeholders who have yet to be identified. Finally, there is
often no pathway to transition observation or information extraction and
dissemination capabilities developed in the research domain into the opera-
tional domain (NRC, 2003d). A broader community of operational users
will have to be involved in the specification of future observation and data
delivery systems.
12.. Provide stewardship of the observing system.
This observation and monitoring goal concerns the use of climate
monitoring principles and scientific oversight of algorithm development,
instrument calibration, data processing, product validation, archiving, and
distribution. Although general guidelines for stewardship have been devel-
oped (NRC, 2004b), responsibility for following them is distributed among
the agencies and no one body is charged with oversight of climate data. The
success of individual agency efforts with respect to climate data stewardship
has been reviewed in a number of National Research Council (NRC) studies
(e.g., NRC, 2001b, 2005c, 2006b). Stewardship of the observing system is
discussed in Chapter 4, which notes (1) that some in situ observing systems
are degrading and others have not been expanded as proposed in science
implementation plans, and (2) that some proposed satellite systems needed
to extend the climate data record have been cancelled or delayed.
12.. Integrate modeling activities with the observing system.
Integration of modeling with observation systems involves technologi-
cal tools such as those that have been developed by the National Weather
Service community. This integration has generated weather-related climate
data as reanalysis products. Observations and monitoring goal 12.4 will be
further advanced as progress is made in the development of algorithms for
modeling other forms of time-varying climate parameters and relating them
to corresponding observational data.
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PROGRESS TOWARD THE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
12.5. Foster international cooperation to develop a complete global observ-
ing system.
A considerable amount of deliberation and coordination on climate
observations has taken place at the international level. Coordinating bod-
ies exist on different aspects of the climate observing system, including the
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), the Global Ocean Observing
System, and the Global Terrestrial Observing System. These groups have
established principles for climate observation, developed observation re-
quirements, and assessed the adequacy of available climate observations.
All three groups have identified the essential climate variables needed to
support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(GCOS, 1997, 2003, 2006), and the Committee on Earth Observation
Satellites is assessing current capabilities to provide the satellite-derived
essential climate variables. On a broader scale, the international Group on
Earth Observations was established to develop a comprehensive framework
to integrate a wide array of space and in situ observations. Steps are now
being taken to develop the international Global Earth Observing System of
Systems (GEOSS) through a series of tasks organized around nine areas of
societal benefit, including understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating,
and adapting to climate variability and change.1
Although individual agencies participate in the international global
observing systems, CCSP coordination with these international observing
efforts has thus far been weak. The CCSP observations IWG is, however,
developing metrics to evaluate and prioritize the contribution of U.S. satel-
lite and in situ observations to GCOS, based on results of a workshop held
in June 2006. Several CCSP managers also sit on committees and working
groups to plan the U.S. contribution to GEOSS, but CCSP influence on
international programs, and vice versa, remains limited. With increasing
demands for Earth observations, delays in launching U.S. satellites, and the
removal of a number of climate sensors from NPOESS, increasing attention
will have to be paid to international cooperation. The role of the CCSP in
this coordination has yet to be determined.
12.. Manage the observing system with an effective interagency
structure.
Of all the observations and monitoring goals the least progress has
been made in developing an effective interagency structure for climate
observations. The CCSP’s inability to influence the observing programs of
its participating agencies is related partly to the absence to date of a clear
1 See .
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10 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP
articulation and prioritization of CCSP observation requirements (NRC,
2004c) and partly to the absence of funding authority. CCSP goals are
clearly a consideration for the participating agencies, but they are largely
secondary to agency goals.
Progress Toward the Data Management Goals
Good progress is being made on three of the four data management
goals.
1.1. Collect and manage data in multiple locations.
A host of NOAA, Department of Energy (DOE), and U.S. Geological
Survey (USGS) environmental data centers have existed around the coun-
try for decades (see list in NRC, 2003a), providing access to a wide range
of satellite and in situ data to a wide range of users. As part of its Earth
Observing System, NASA made a significant investment in data systems
and technologies. The resulting Distributed Active Archive Centers, Sci-
ence Computing Facilities, and specialized data projects are now providing
access to unprecedented volumes of Earth science data, and peer-reviewed
data products are being generated routinely for NASA’s systematic observa-
tions (NRC, 2002b). These data are being reprocessed as improvements to
calibration and algorithms are made, and data products are being system-
atically validated and the associated validation data made available.
1.2. Enable users to discover and access data and information via the
Internet.
The Internet has revolutionized the way users find and obtain data. On-
line access to data has increased dramatically, and a variety of tools are now
available for manipulating and visualizing data (NRC, 2003a). Increases in
computational capacity have enabled scientists to download and manage
terabytes of data routinely in their own laboratories. Grid computing ap-
proaches are also being developed to share computing resources and enable
distributed data processing. The Global Change Master Directory provides
a summary of data holdings, including climate indicators, which helps us-
ers find distributed data holdings. Information on the CCSP is available
through the Internet, although the CCSP web site is sparsely populated with
information and difficult to navigate (see “Communications” below).
1.. Develop integrated information data products for scientists and deci-
sion makers.
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PROGRESS TOWARD THE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
The emphasis to date has been on meeting the needs of the science
community (e.g., NRC, 2002b, 2003c). Both NASA and NOAA are cur-
rently supporting research and development to provide data products and
services suited to the needs of operational users. Although most efforts
have focused on preparing and delivering information suitable for use by
scientists and agency managers, systems such as the National Integrated
Drought Information System are beginning to be established for decision
makers (NSTC, 2006).
1.. Preserve data.
It is within the mission of both NOAA and USGS, but not NASA, to
preserve data over the long term. In addition to its other archival systems,
NOAA is developing the Comprehensive Large-array Stewardship System,
which will provide access to data from satellite programs, including the
Polar Operational Environmental Satellite and the Geostationary Opera-
tions Environmental Satellite systems, the NPOESS Preparatory Project,
and EOS. The CCSP has had little involvement in ensuring the long-term
archive of climate-related data collected by participating agencies.
Opportunities and Threats
CCSP progress in prioritizing the climate observation requirements
and developing and implementing an interagency strategy for securing the
necessary long-term (century or longer) climate observations will be the
ultimate measure of success of this part of the program. As long as multiple
agencies are responsible for climate observations, interagency coordination
will continue to be critical. The CCSP provides a structure for building
consensus among the agencies, and it could be used more effectively to
determine what should be done to secure the necessary climate observa-
tions and to resolve other observation and data issues. With a decreasing
budget for Earth observation in the United States, international cooperation
and data exchange will become increasingly important. For example, the
upcoming International Polar Year provides an opportunity for increased
international coordination on polar observations.
Different agency missions create obstacles to CCSP progress in securing
climate observations. In particular, NOAA’s primary mission with respect to
satellite observations is to meet the needs of the National Weather Service,
which does not require climate observations. NASA does not undertake op-
erational measurements, although some “systematic” measurements (e.g.,
from MODIS, Landsat, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) are made
in support of climate change research. Now that NASA’s priorities are
directed toward exploration, its climate budget is shrinking and the case
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10 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP
for long-term measurements has to be weighed against new instruments
and technologies. The absence of a pathway and funding for transitioning
observations from NASA research to NOAA operations raises serious con-
cerns about the continuity of climate quality observations.
Consistent long-term (multidecadal to century) observations are cru-
cial, and long-term measurements from the polar-orbiting systems are of
particular importance for the CCSP. It is unclear how effective the transi-
tion of climate quality observations will be from MODIS, with its rigorous
calibration and validation programs, to the NPOESS Preparatory Project
(NPP) Visible Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument. In this
respect, it is important that the MODIS instruments not be decommissioned
until after NPP VIIRS is launched and inter-comparison and calibration
can be made. A number of other critical observations will not be extended.
The cancelled NPOESS climate instruments would have continued measure-
ments of top-of-atmosphere energy sources and sinks. No means have been
proposed for extending current observations from SORCE and CERES.
Finally, a break in data continuity also appears inevitable in the Landsat
series (see Chapter 4). The CCSP is starting to bring these issues to the fore,
highlighting the need for a mechanism to fill these critical data gaps. The
CCSP could perform a similar role in clarifying the issues and supporting
the necessary agency programs in the EOS-to-NPOESS transition and ex-
tensions of other current observations.
Upcoming validation experiments for Aura, Cloudsat, and CALIPSO
provide opportunities for securing new climate quality measurements.
NASA is also giving emphasis to the development of a suite of Earth science
data records for climate and global change studies (NRC, 2004b). Similarly,
NOAA is developing plans for generating climate data records from NPP
and NPOESS VIIRS. It is important that the VIIRS instrument be calibrated
to enable science quality products to be generated from the system designed
to meet the needs of operational users, and that these products continue
the climate data record developed from MODIS (NRC, 2000b). The CCSP
could help ensure that the climate principles and priority observations are
met by these initiatives and that there is effective coordination.
Concerns also exist for the continuity of data from ground-based ob-
servation networks, which are required to test conclusions based on remote
observations. For example, data from atmospheric sampling networks are
used to test the validity of results from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory
satellite. However, research funds are not available to support the expan-
sion of existing networks planned under several of the CCSP research ele-
ments, and priorities for which networks receive other limited resources will
likely be set at the agency level.
Challenges in data management include securing and managing the
long-term data archive (NRC, 2006b), coordinating development and dis-
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PROGRESS TOWARD THE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
tribution of climate data records, establishing consistent long-term data
records across instruments (NRC, 2000b, c), and international data coor-
dination. The latter could be undertaken in the framework of the emerging
international GEOSS. Finally, data systems currently designed primarily to
meet the needs of the science community will have to be augmented with
systems that can provide climate-related information to decision makers.
MODELING
The CCSP strategic plan describes two complementary streams of cli-
mate modeling activities. The first is fundamental research on climate pro-
cesses operating in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere required for
model development through improved representation of climate processes.
Climate process research also provides a framework for climate model
experiments and for deciding which observations to analyze. Included, for
instance, is basic research on the research elements described in Chapter 4,
including chemistry and climate; aerosols; clouds and convection; the global
carbon, nitrogen, water and energy cycles; ocean and atmospheric eddies;
snow and ice; dynamic vegetation; and land cover and land use change.
The second stream of work is the sustained and timely delivery of predic-
tive model products that are required to support assessments and decision
making. The intent of the CCSP is to maintain a productive partnership
between product-driven modeling activities and the discovery-driven model-
ing research program that will underpin its credibility and future success.
Other types of models (e.g., economics, integrated assessments) are not
included in this cross-cutting issue.
Several of the most pressing scientific questions regarding the climate
system and its response to natural and anthropogenic forcing cannot read-
ily be addressed with traditional models of the physical climate. One of the
open issues for near-term climate change, for example, is the response of
terrestrial ecosystems to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide. Will
soils release stored carbon dioxide to the atmosphere in a warmer climate,
thereby acting as a positive feedback, or will vegetation absorb more car-
bon dioxide and hence decelerate global warming? Exploration of this and
other questions requires a more comprehensive treatment of the integrative
Earth system as well as improved understanding of feedbacks derived from
manipulations and long-term (decades to a century or longer) observations.
Physical models, in particular, are being extended to include the interac-
tions of climate with biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry, ecosystems,
glaciers and ice sheets, and anthropogenic environmental change.
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10 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP
Progress Toward the Modeling Goals
Over the past few years, the CCSP has supported and initiated several
activities that have significantly improved models for investigating and un-
derstanding how the Earth system works and how it is affected by human
actions. Yet many challenges remain, ranging from scientific uncertainties
and questions on climate processes articulated in many of the CCSP re-
search questions to the extensive computational demands required to build
more comprehensive models. While the ultimate objective is a comprehen-
sive Earth system model, constrained by observations, the complexity of
Earth’s climate system will require the CCSP to focus on models that will
aid in understanding the processes that maintain and regulate climate. The
information produced by these models will be of limited use to the stake-
holder community, however, until a research and applications infrastructure
is developed that better involves stakeholders in developing new approaches
for projecting impacts on society and ecosystems and in designing and
implementing response options. As noted in NRC (2004c), such efforts are
still in their formative stages.
10.l. Improve the scientific basis of climate and climate impacts models.
Several notable CCSP-initiated successes have occurred in the arena
of climate modeling. Significantly improved representations of physical
processes, as well as increased resolution, characterize the latest generation
of U.S. climate models (e.g., Collins et al., 2006; Delworth et al., 2006).
New simulations of climate change during the twentieth and twenty-first
centuries have been carried out using these models, and this output is a cen-
terpiece of the fourth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). These simulations have increased the credibility of scientific
conclusions on the causes of global surface warming witnessed over the past
several decades. Various high-end modeling centers sponsored by DOE,
NASA, NOAA, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) developed
and tested the new U.S. models. All show significant improvements in the
simulation of the physical climate system compared to their predecessors a
decade ago (IPCC, 2007), although there is still a need to reduce systematic
biases that plague coupled models, such as the biases associated with the
double Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, errors in the simulated intrasea-
sonal and interannual variability of the tropics, and various regional biases
in simulated rainfall and surface temperature. The reduction of such biases
becomes even more important as the complexity of the models increases, for
example, through the introduction of dynamic vegetation parameters.
Despite recent model improvements, however, significant uncertainties
associated with various aspects of climate models remain. One of these
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PROGRESS TOWARD THE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
is the representation of clouds, which continues to be one of the weak-
est links in modeling the physical climate system (IPCC, 2007). A climate
process team (CPT) on cloud feedbacks has been formed to address this
challenge by incorporating high-resolution satellite data, field observations,
and small-scale cloud models. In addition, the Climate Change Prediction
Program-Atmospheric Radiation Program Parameterization Testbed project
is addressing the cloud modeling problem by first analyzing the ability of
a climate model to accurately simulate weather events, diagnosing the er-
rors, and subsequently improving the model. Other improvements are being
made in understanding and modeling different components of the Earth
system, including atmospheric chemistry, ecosystems, and carbon cycling,
although many challenges remain, including integrating these capabilities
into increasingly comprehensive Earth system models.
10.2. Provide the infrastructure and capacity necessary to support a scien-
tifically rigorous and responsive U.S. climate modeling activity.
U.S. climate modeling capability has advanced significantly in the last
several years, fueled by improvements in software and understanding of
physics. Resources for supercomputing are provided by NSF, NASA, DOE,
and NOAA, and scientific requirements for, and the availability of, pet-
ascale computing were analyzed in UCAR (2005). An extensive database
of model output is archived and made accessible to interested climate
researchers through an enabling technology (the Earth System Grid) and
the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI).
With CCSP support, the U.S. element of the Climate Variability and Predict-
ability (CLIVAR) initiated the Climate Model Evaluation Project (CMEP)
to increase community-wide diagnostic research into the quality of model
simulations, leading to more robust evaluations of model predictions and a
better quantification of uncertainty in projections of future climate. More
than 400 CMEP analysis projects are currently registered at PCMDI, and
more than 200 papers have resulted and been submitted to peer review
journals (Meehl et al., 2007).
Another success, again via the U.S. CLIVAR program, has been the
development of CPTs, which gather observationalists, process modelers,
and coupled climate modelers around specific issues or key uncertainties.
They aim to link process-oriented research to modeling for the purpose of
addressing key uncertainties in coupled climate models. A CPT effort on
low-latitude cloud feedbacks was funded, and CPTs on gravity current en-
trainment and eddy mixed layer interaction are working to improve major
ocean models.
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10.. Coordinate and accelerate climate modeling activities and provide
relevant decision support information on a timely basis.
Output from the major U.S. climate models is available for the CCSP
synthesis and assessment products and individual assessment research stud-
ies. It also provided much of the modeling results on which the IPCC synthe-
sis was based. However, the CCSP has not made any progress in facilitating
communication between modelers and the applications community about
what statistics would best serve the applications communities. Although
there is considerable overlap in the requirements of these two communities,
the provided output has been driven largely or entirely by research needs,
rather than by support of assessments and decision making.
Opportunities and Threats
An overarching concern is that inadequate resources for computing
power is limiting progress in several key modeling areas, including repre-
sentation of extremes and accurate representations of key climate processes
and feedbacks (NRC, 2005b; UCAR, 2005). Continued progress on climate
science and decision support will require large amounts of high-perfor-
mance computer time, petabyte mass storage capabilities, and appropriately
balanced high-speed communications networks. Based on the IPCC fourth
assessment modeling contributions, the United States will need at least a
thirtyfold increase in high-performance computing resources within the
next five years. Managing and sharing data and models pose significant
technical challenges.
Another concern is the lack of a national strategy for seasonal-to-
interannual climate prediction, given the importance of predictions on these
time scales to support climate services needed by a variety of stakeholders
(NRC, 2005b). Routine, if not operational, seasonal-to-interannual climate
forecasts have been issued by a number of numerical weather prediction
centers around the world since the close of the Tropical Ocean Global At-
mosphere program in 1994. However, these have focused on the response
to El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced signals emanating from
the tropical Pacific basin (NRC, 1996; see also June 1998 special issue
of Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans). A rigorous assessment of
the present capability of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts in the
United States has not been undertaken. The delivery of climate services also
requires an enhanced regional climate modeling capability, and perhaps
initialized climate forecasts out to decadal time scales (e.g., Hibbard et al.,
2007) to improve understanding of climate change and impacts at spatial
scales relevant to many stakeholders (NRC, 2005b).
Some of these issues are beginning to be addressed through the concept
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of the “seamless prediction paradigm,” which recognizes that the traditional
boundaries between weather and climate are somewhat artificial and that
fundamental barriers to advancing weather and climate prediction on time
scales of days to years, as well as long-standing systematic errors in weather
and climate models, are partly attributable to our limited understanding of
and capability to simulate the complex, multiscale interactions intrinsic to
atmospheric and oceanic fluid motions (WCRP, 2005). Several seamless pre-
diction activities are under way, although all are still in their infancy. These
efforts typically fall into one of the three categories: (1) using the IPCC class
models for days-to-decades prediction; (2) using numerical weather predic-
tion class models for seasons-to-decades prediction; or (3) developing very
high resolution models with mesoscale processes explicitly resolved, either
globally or by nesting high-resolution regional models within global climate
models. Other approaches that attempt to blur the distinction between
weather and climate are also emerging, such as beginning integrations with
higher resolution to satisfy weather forecast requirements, then cascading
down to lower-resolution versions of the model with consistent physical
parameterization schemes. The potential benefits of a stronger research
focus on the seamless paradigm include skill improvement in both weather
and climate forecasts; stronger collaboration and shared knowledge among
the weather and climate communities working on physical parameterization
schemes, data assimilation schemes, and initialization methods; and shared
infrastructure and technical capabilities.
DECISION SUPPORT RESOURCES
The CCSP strategic plan identifies three types of decision making that
require decision support resources: (1) public discussion and planning based
on state-of-science syntheses and assessments; (2) operational adaptive
management decisions undertaken by managers of natural resources and
built infrastructure (i.e., climate services applications); and (3) support for
policy formulation. These cover the kinds of knowledge necessary to both
mitigate and adapt to climate change, although they do not explicitly ac-
count for the role of the private sector, especially business.
Progress Toward the Decision Support Goals
The overall objectives of the decision support resources cross-cutting
issue appear to be sound. However, most of the reported activities follow a
knowledge-driven model of interactions between science and society. This
model focuses on identifying potential uses for existing observations, data,
and research products, rather than defining a research agenda to support
the three types of decision making. As a result, most efforts to date have
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112 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP
been skewed toward products that the CCSP research elements were al-
ready developing. An exception is research programs in which stakeholder
interaction is part of the research design, such as the RISAs and DMUU cen-
ters. Although increasing the usefulness of research products is important, it
should neither replace nor eclipse the need to engage in stakeholder-driven
research, an expressed but not demonstrated priority of the CCSP.
A 2004 NRC report recommended that the CCSP accelerate efforts in
eight previously underemphasized areas, many of which concern meeting
the needs of decision makers (e.g., human dimensions, economics, impacts,
adaptation, mitigation). The report also calls for further development of
decision support activities to meet the needs of local, regional, national,
and international stakeholders (NRC, 2004c). However, progress toward
achieving the CCSP decision support goals has been inadequate. Indeed, a
bill introduced in Congress in February 2007 (HR 907) notes that the U.S.
Global Change Research Program “has not produced sufficient information
to meet the expressed needs of decision makers.”
11.1. Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments to support informed dis-
cussion of climate variability and change and associated issues by decision
makers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public.
Progress has been inadequate on the 21 CCSP synthesis and assessment
products, and at the time of writing only two have been completed (see
Appendix A). However, the content of these reports (CCSP, 2006b, 2007c)
and the scientific effort required to carry them out provided a fundamental
contribution to current national and international assessment of what is
being observed as climate change. Three of the synthesis and assessment
products will be aimed at decision support. The focus of products 5.1 and
5.3 is primarily to understand how currently available knowledge and in-
formation, such as seasonal climate forecasts or NASA observational data,
can be made available and useful to managers and other stakeholders.
These products also report early findings of application projects. Product
5.2 focuses on decision making under uncertainty. A National Research
Council review of the latter found that the draft report contains useful
information for researchers, but does not address the needs of all the speci-
fied audiences, including policy and decision makers, and misses some best
practice approaches for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating
uncertainty (NRC, 2007c). The review recommends that CCSP assessment
product 5.2 be substantially revised to address these and other issues.
Scientific syntheses of specific topics have also been developed by some
of the CCSP research elements. These range from data compilations (e.g.,
forest management and carbon fluxes) to model predictions (e.g., predic-
tions of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability or subdecadal climate
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variability, such as ENSO) (see Chapter 4). However, the research elements
are targeted primarily toward answering science questions rather than in-
forming policy and management. As a result, the potential stakeholders are
largely unknown and only a few groups are using research results for deci-
sion support. The CCSP held a stakeholder workshop in November 2005
(CCSP, 2005a), but it is not clear how information and feedback obtained
from that workshop helped refine the decision support research agenda.
11.2. Develop resources to support adaptive management and planning for
responding to climate variability and climate change, and transition these
resources from research to operational application.
Adaptive management is a governance mechanism used to shape miti-
gation and adaptation to climate change. However, adaptive management is
not carefully defined in the CCSP strategic plan, and the activities reported
in Our Changing Planet seem not to consider the scholarly literature on
its many facets, strengths, and limitations (e.g., Holling, 1978; Gunderson
and Holling, 2002; Arvai et al., 2006). Understanding how adaptive man-
agement works is as important as producing tools to support it. Moreover,
although the dynamic and integrative (i.e., across disciplines and across the
science-policy divide) dimensions of adaptive management are covered in
the CCSP strategic plan, in practice these dimensions are not being fully
realized. Judging from the highlighted accomplishments reported in Our
Changing Planet, the emphasis is more on the design of decision support
systems based on currently available research and less on understanding
their transfer and use in adaptive management. Examples include a model
to forecast mosquito abundance and estimate the risk of encephalitis in-
fection, a tool for visualizing carbon sinks and CO2 fluctuations in U.S.
ecosystems, and improvements in observation, monitoring, and prediction
capabilities of the National Integrated Drought Information System (CCSP,
2006a). Although the RISA program and DMUU centers have explored
interactions between knowledge producers and users in the context of
managing natural resources and response to climate variability and change
(Chapter 4), these programs correspond to a very small fraction of the deci-
sion support budget (Appendix B).
Ecosystems is the only research element that has made progress on
adaptive management (Chapter 4). For example, climate variability is an
explicit factor in decisions about fisheries management, and adaptive man-
agement strategies are also beginning to be put in place for forestry and
are supported by an infrastructure that includes scientific inputs on climate
variability. Greenhouse gas emissions from various agricultural or forestry
practices have been investigated, but these are not yet widely considered in
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11 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP
land management decisions. Some activities, such as nascent carbon mar-
kets, are emerging without CCSP involvement or input.
The largest activity in the transition from research to operational ap-
plications is NASA’s Applied Sciences program, which has an annual budget
of about $90 million (Appendix B). NASA, along with partner federal agen-
cies, is working to integrate its spacecraft observations and model outputs
into decision-making tools in 12 application areas: agricultural efficiency,
air quality, aviation, carbon management, coastal management, disaster
management, ecological forecasting, energy management, homeland se-
curity, invasive species, public health, and water management. An NRC
review of the program’s approach and results is expected in 2007. Other
agencies also have programs intended to make practical use of research
results (e.g., NOAA’s Climate Test Bed), but they are generally not tied to
the CCSP research questions.
11.. Develop and evaluate methods (scenario evaluations, integrated
analyses, and alternative analytical approaches) to support climate change
policy making and demonstrate these methods with case studies.
Our Changing Planet lists several examples of efforts to develop meth-
ods and tools to support policy making, such as alternative incentive de-
signs for practices to increase soil carbon levels (CCSP, 2005b) and if/then
analyses of the potential effects of cap-and-trade policies (CCSP, 2006a).
Especially promising is the development of integrated models that explore
the feedbacks between coupled human-environment systems (e.g., research
funded under NSF’s Biocomplexity and Human and Social Dynamics pro-
grams). However, the total effort reported appears small compared to the
potential demand among policy makers and stakeholders in the private
sector (e.g., Western Governors’ Association, 2006).
Opportunities and Threats
The CCSP’s emphasis on the development of decision support tools is
an important step toward supporting policy and management decisions in
both the public and the private sectors. However, the research community
focusing on decision support is small. To achieve the potential of this cross-
cutting issue, the community will have to be built and sustained so that de-
cision support activities can be expanded across the social sciences. Without
adequate support, the field not only will stagnate but actually could regress
at a time when the need for its input will be the highest.
The human contributions and responses research element has the po-
tential to inform the decision support resources cross-cutting issue (1) by
fostering social science to substantiate the creation of decision support tools
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and (2) by transferring knowledge that can support decision making. How-
ever, the combined management of the human contributions and responses
research element and the decision support cross-cutting issue has made it
more difficult to assess whether the decision support goals are being met
and where critical gaps lay (see Chapter 4). A separation of the two, as
envisioned in the CCSP strategic plan, would help ensure that each receives
appropriate attention from the program.
COMMUNICATIONS
The Global Change Research Act of 1990 calls for the production of
“information readily usable by policymakers attempting to formulate ef-
fective strategies for preventing, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of
global change.”2 The communications chapter of the CCSP strategic plan
focuses on transparent development of research plans and reports and two-
way communication with a broad spectrum of stakeholders (CCSP, 2003).
The plan recognizes that research findings are generally well reported in
the scientific literature, but that relevant aspects of the findings have to be
reported in formats suitable for use by diverse audiences. A comprehensive
communications plan was to be developed by the end of 2003.
The CCSP communicates with stakeholders through peer-reviewed
scientific literature, the CCSP web sites,3 the news media, and outreach
materials. The latter three are aimed at audiences with varying levels of
understanding about climate change. In addition, the CCSP produces an
annual report for Congress (Our Changing Planet), which is intended to
be “the authoritative guide to ongoing climate science research by federal
agencies” (CCSP, 2003, p. 154).
Progress Toward Communications Goals
Well-thought-out intentions expressed in the CCSP strategic plan have
not yet been translated into implementation. The CCSP has neither pre-
pared a comprehensive communications plan nor developed processes for
effective delivery of relevant information and engagement of stakeholders.
As a result, inadequate progress has been made toward achieving the two
closely related communications goals:
2 104 Stat. 3096-3104.
3 The family of CCSP web sites includes sites for the CCSP, the U.S. Global Change Research
Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Information office, all of which can be ac-
cessed through .
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11 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP
1. Disseminate the results of CCSP activities credibly and effectively.
2. Make CCSP science findings and products easily available to a
diverse set of audiences.
Communications activities to date have focused on publishing Our
Changing Planet, maintaining and preparing content (e.g., fact sheets) for
the CCSP web sites, and facilitating a 2005 workshop on decision support
(CCSP, 2006a). The CCSP program office has also prepared one internal
annual implementation plan and is working on another, and it is assisting
CCSP agencies with their public comment processes for pending synthesis
and assessment reports (Nick Sundt, personal communication, January 9,
2007).
The CCSP has not prepared a comprehensive communications plan
with “specific benchmarks and time tables to allow tracking of the plan’s
progress.” (CCSP, 2003, p. 155). Also missing is any substantive effort
to implement basic communications protocols commonly used by indus-
try and by government agencies that would accompany a comprehensive
plan—such as identifying key audiences (stakeholders in relevant sectors),
the information needed by those audiences, and appropriate information
delivery methodologies—as well as social science research that would in-
form development of a robust communications strategy. Identification of
key audiences is not trivial, as experience from the U.S. national assessment
and RISA programs showed, but it provides the foundation for framing
many aspects of decision support (NRC, 2004c).
Examples of federal agency communications strategies are widely avail-
able (e.g., Griffith and McCullough, 1990; Pedigo et al., 2005), as are best
practices in scientific communication (e.g., Borchelt, 2001). The CCSP also
received substantial input on communications via comments on its draft
strategic plan (NRC, 2003b) and its 2005 stakeholder workshop (CCSP,
2005a). The NRC (2004c) review of the CCSP strategic plan noted that the
program’s increased emphasis on decision support and stakeholder com-
munication would require increased staffing in the CCSP office to support
this workload.
Some CCSP programs have succeeded in engaging stakeholders on cli-
mate issues. For example, NOAA’s RISA program has done a commendable
job serving as a bridge between scientists and end users, such as water or
wildfire managers (see “Human Contributions and Responses to Environ-
mental Change” in Chapter 4; Western States Water Council, 2007). How-
ever, even some CCSP agencies with strong involvement from stakeholders
have not always succeeded in communicating information on climate. For
example, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) conducted an exten-
sive, well-organized outreach program pertaining to reauthorization of the
2007 Farm Bill, an omnibus act that funds most USDA activities, includ-
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PROGRESS TOWARD THE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
ing the agency’s role in CCSP, and is of high importance to stakeholders.
Review of the public comments received by USDA in its outreach program
reveals a dearth of stakeholder engagement on CCSP.4 The program as a
whole is failing to reach stakeholders in a comprehensive way at a time
when stakeholder participation in natural resources and environmental
planning processes is becoming commonplace in programs of other federal
agencies (Pahl-Wostl, 2002; NRC, 2004a).
Opportunities and Threats
Many aspects of CCSP research would be useful to diverse stakehold-
ers if they were made aware of the information or of the program itself.
However, the program as a whole lacks resources and a process for com-
municating with the broader set of stakeholders. Two-way dialogue is im-
portant for ensuring that CCSP products are relevant to end users (NRC,
1999; 2004c) and is a requirement of the federal climate program’s enabling
legislation. The absence of two-way dialogue is a shortcoming of current
federal climate services (Miles et al., 2006). The current agency culture of
developing products that it hopes stakeholders will use (the “loading dock”
model; see Dilling, 2007b, and references therein) illustrates the need for
strong program leadership to manage external communications and engage
stakeholders.
The CCSP’s web site displays a level of development that might be ex-
pected from a newly established program, not one that has been in existence
for several years. Content is sparse relative to the breadth of the program,
often organized randomly, and spread across three separate web sites. A
reorganization of the information into a single web site would significantly
ease searches for program information. Posting additional content (e.g.,
abstracts of papers published with CCSP support) would also make the web
site a more useful resource. Federal agency guidelines for using the web as
a communications tool (e.g., HHS, 2003) could provide a useful resource
for improving the CCSP web site.
The planned synthesis and assessment products should improve CCSP
communications by providing content for dissemination. However, although
the CCSP web site provides both the status of synthesis and assessment
products and a mechanism for providing public comment, few stakehold-
ers have been engaged in reviewing the draft prospectuses or reports (Nick
Sundt, personal communication, January 9, 2007). Substantial effort will
be required to raise stakeholder awareness of and participation in these
products.
4 See
11 EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CCSP
Only two staff are responsible for communications at the program level
(Nick Sundt, personal communication, January 9, 2007). With this alloca-
tion, the program office cannot be expected to handle daily housekeeping
tasks—maintaining web sites, responding to press inquiries, and coordinat-
ing public review of synthesis and assessment products—and develop and
implement meaningful outreach strategies for diverse audiences.
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Global climate change science is advanced through contributions from
many countries. With only U.S. agency and CCSP programs, our under-
standing and characterization of climate change would not be nearly as
advanced as it is. It would be virtually impossible to observe with adequate
detail the changing climate without an important web of international
collaborations. Furthermore, the United States by itself would not be able
to control the growth of greenhouse gases by as much as will likely be
necessary. Fortunately, many other countries support climate research, and
international coordination with these countries can avoid considerable
duplication of effort. The CCSP goals on international cooperation are the
following:
• Actively promote and encourage cooperation between U.S. scien-
tists and scientific institutions and agencies and their counterparts around
the globe so that they can aggregate the scientific and financial resources
necessary to undertake research on change at all relevant scales, including
both the regional and the global.
• Expand observing systems in order to provide global observational
coverage of change in the atmosphere and oceans and on land, especially
as needed to underpin the research effort.
• Ensure that the data collected are of the highest quality possible
and suitable for both research and forecasting, and that these data are ex-
changed and archived on a timely and effective basis among all interested
scientists and end users.
• Support development of scientific capabilities and the application
of results in developing countries in order to promote the fullest possible
participation by scientists and scientific institutions in these countries in the
above research, observational, and data management efforts.
It is difficult to review progress in scientific coordination. Neverthe-
less, it is clear that some of the most effective coordination is done by
international programs, such as the World Climate Research Programme,
the International Human Dimensions Programme, and the International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. These programs have sponsored a host of
11
PROGRESS TOWARD THE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
international conferences and published numerous strategic and implemen-
tation plans. The most effective coordination of international assessment
activities has been that of the IPCC, which has had strong contributions
from U.S. scientists and agencies through the CCSP.
Agencies participating in the CCSP contribute much to international
collaborative activities, through the participation of individual scientists
and, in some cases, through provision of funding to support international
program offices. The CCSP’s international IWG is tasked to coordinate
between the CCSP and international activities, but the committee did not
see much visible impact of this coordination. For example, the IWG coor-
dinated a large number of bilateral arrangements (e.g., the United States
and Japan have approximately 100 ongoing bilateral projects),5 but it is
not clear how these arrangements facilitated advancement of the CCSP
international cooperation goals. A fully effective CCSP would be expected
to have a major facilitating role in connecting U.S. climate research to that
of the rest of the world beyond what has already been achieved by its par-
ticipating agencies.
5 Presentation from Jonathan Padgham, U.S. Agency for International Development and
international IWG, on March 20, 2007.
