COUNTERING THE THREAT OF IMPROVED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES

Basic Research Opportunities

ABBREVIATED VERSION

Committee on Defeating Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research to Interrupt the IED Delivery Chain

Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Naval Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version COUNTERING THE THREAT OF IMPROVED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES Basic Research Opportunities ABBREVIATED VERSION Committee on Defeating Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research to Interrupt the IED Delivery Chain Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology Division on Earth and Life Studies Naval Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the Office of Naval Research, U.S. Department of the Navy under Grant N00014-05-G-0288. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-10915-4 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-10915-9 Additional copies of this report are available from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 (800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version COMMITTEE ON DEFEATING IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES: BASIC RESEARCH TO INTERRUPT THE IED DELIVERY CHAIN Chairperson JOHN L. ANDERSON, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH Members ALAN BERMAN, Independent Consultant, Alexandria, VA CHARLES A. BOUMAN, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN WILLIAM F. BRINKMAN, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ MARTHA CRENSHAW, Wesleyan University, Middleton, CT MARY LOU FULTZ, US Postal Inspection Service, Dulles, VA WILLIAM J. HURLEY, Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, VA ANIL K. JAIN, Michigan State University, East Lansing HARRY W. JENKINS, Independent Consultant, Gainesville, VA EDWARD H. KAPLAN, Yale University, New Haven, CT ALEXANDER MACLACHLAN, Independent Consultant, Wilmington, DE ANDREW W. MOORE, Google, Inc., Pittsburgh, PA JIMMIE C. OXLEY, University of Rhode Island, Kingston AMY SANDS, Monterey Institute for International Studies, Monterey, CA JOSEPH E. SHEPHERD, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena WILLIAM C. TROGLER, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla JONATHAN YOUNG, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA Staff FEDERICO M. SAN MARTINI, Associate Program Officer, Study Director DOROTHY ZOLANDZ, Director, Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology CHARLES F. DRAPER, Director, Naval Studies Board MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer IAN M. CAMERON, Research Associate DAVID C. RASMUSSEN, Senior Program Assistant (through November 10, 2006) SCOTT B. ROWAN, Christine Mirzayan Graduate Fellow (through June 9, 2006) RAYMOND W. WIDMAYER, Consultant, Naval Studies Board NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Senior Editor

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version BOARD ON CHEMICAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY Chairpersons F. FLEMING CRIM (NAS), University of Wisconsin, Madison ELSA REICHMANIS (NAE), Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, NJ Members PAUL T. ANASTAS, Yale University, New Haven, CT GARY S. CALABRESE, Rohm & Haas Company, W. Philadelphia, PA JEAN DE GRAEVE, Université de Liège, Belgium PABLO G. DEBENEDETTI (NAE), Princeton University, Princeton, NJ MILES P. DRAKE, Weyerhaeuser Company, Allentown, PA GEORGE W. FLYNN (NAS), Columbia University, New York, NY MAURICIO FUTRAN (NAE), Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, New Brunswick, NJ PAULA T. HAMMOND, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge ROBERT HWANG, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM JAY V. IHLENFELD, 3M Research & Development, St. Paul, MN JAMES L. KINSEY (NAS), Rice University, Houston, TX MARTHA A. KREBS, California Energy Commission, Sacramento CHARLES T. KRESGE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, MI SCOTT J. MILLER, Yale University, New Haven, CT GERALD V. POJE, Private Consultant, Vienna, VA DONALD PROSNITZ, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA MATTHEW V. TIRRELL (NAE), University of California, Santa Barbara National Research Council Staff ALBERT EPSHTEYN, Christine Mirzayan Graduate Fellow (through March 16, 2007) KATHRYN HUGHES, Postdoctoral Fellow TINA M. MASCIANGIOLI, Program Officer ERICKA M. MCGOWAN, Associate Program Officer SYBIL A. PAIGE, Administrative Associate JESSICA L. PULLEN, Research Assistant DAVID C. RASMUSSEN, SENIOR Program Assistant (through November 10, 2006) SCOTT ROWAN, Christine Mirzayan Graduate Fellow (through June 9, 2006) FEDERICO M. SAN MARTINI, Associate Program Officer DOROTHY ZOLANDZ, Director

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version NAVAL STUDIES BOARD Chairperson JOHN F. EGAN, Nashua, NH Vice Chairperson MIRIAM E. JOHN, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM Members ANTONIO L. ELIAS (NAE), Orbital Sciences Corporation, Dulles, VA BRIG “CHIP” ELLIOTT, BBN Technologies, Cambridge, MA LEE HAMMARSTROM, Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University KERRIE L. HOLLEY, IBM Global Services, Montara, CA JOHN W. HUTCHINSON (NAS/NAE), Harvard University, Cambridge, MA HARRY W. JENKINS, JR., Gainesville, VA EDWARD H. KAPLAN (NAE/IOM), Yale University, New Haven, CT THOMAS V. MCNAMARA, Textron Systems, Wilmington, MA L. DAVID MONTAGUE (NAE), Menlo Park, CA WILLIAM B. MORGAN (NAE), Rockville, MD JOHN H. MOXLEY III (IOM), Los Olivos, CA GENE H. PORTER, Nashua, NH JOHN S. QUILTY, Oakton, VA J. PAUL REASON, Washington, D.C. JOHN P. STENBIT (NAE), Oakton, Virginia RICHARD L. WADE, Exponent, Irvine, CA JAMES WARD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DAVID A. WHELAN, The Boeing Company, Seal Beach, CA CINDY WILLIAMS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge ELIHU ZIMET, National Defense University, Washington, DC Staff CHARLES F. DRAPER, Director ARUL MOZHI, Senior Program Officer EUGENGE J. CHOI, Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Coordinator MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer IAN M. CAMERON, Research Associate

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version SEKOU O. JACKSON, Senior Program Assistant (as of December 29, 2006) AYANNA N. VEST, Senior Program Assistant (through June 9, 2006) MEG KNEMEYER, Financial Associate SIDNEY G. REED, Consultant RAYMOND W. WIDMAYER, Consultant

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version Preface Attacks in London, Madrid, Bali, Oklahoma City, and other places indicate that improvised explosive devices (IEDs) are among the weapons of choice of terrorists throughout the world. IEDs have emerged as the primary method of asymmetric warfare1 for terrorists and insurgents in Iraq and elsewhere. US counter-IED efforts to date have used mainly off-the-shelf technologies; as these technologies have been deployed, terrorists and insurgents have adapted their tactics to counter the countermeasures. With their own access to a wide array of commercially available technologies, insurgents have shown a cycle of adaptation that is short relative to the ability of US forces to develop and field IED countermeasures. Scientists and engineers have developed various types of counter-IED technologies, such as explosive-detection sensors, electronic jamming devices, and surveillance systems. Those devices have been used with some success to counter individual IED attacks, but events in Iraq indicate that the effectiveness of IEDs as weapons of asymmetric warfare remains. In February 2006, the Deputy Secretary of Defense signed Department of Defense (DoD) Directive 2000.19E, Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO), changing the name of the Joint IED Defeat Task Force (formed on June 27, 2005) and establishing JIEDDO as a joint 1 Asymmetric warfare is “leveraging inferior tactical or operational strength against the vulnerabilities of a superior opponent to achieve disproportionate effect with the aim of undermining the opponent’s will in order to achieve the asymmetric actor’s strategic objectives” (McKenzie, 2001).

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version entity and jointly manned activity.2 JIEDDO’s mission is to “focus (lead, advocate, coordinate) all DoD actions in support of combatant commanders and their respective joint task force efforts to defeat IEDs as weapons of strategic influence.” The Office of Naval Research (ONR), as part of the overall DoD effort, is investing in middle-and long-term basic research to expand the array of options available for countering the use of IEDs.3 This effort extends beyond identifying and negating the devices themselves or their components to addressing all actions preceding and following the emplacement and detonation of the devices. TERMS OF REFERENCE At the request of ONR, the National Academies agreed to the following: The National Academies will examine the current state of knowledge and practice in the prevention,detection,and mitigation of the effects of improvised explosive devices (IEDs)and make recommendations for avenues of basic research toward the eventual goal of making these devices an obsolete method of asymmetric warfare. The review will consider the following steps in countering IEDs: Prediction and prevention of the assembly and use of IEDs; Detection of the IED or its components; and Controlled detonation of the IED prior to the intended attack. The review will ascertain the basic research questions in physical science, social science, and engineering that, if answered, could lead to new methods of countering use of IEDs, and engage an interdisciplinary cross-section of the relevant research communities in suggesting specific avenues of research that could prove promising in the pursuit of those answers. THE COMMITTEE’S APPROACH The Committee on Defeating Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research to Interrupt the IED Delivery Chain4 was challenged to deliver useful information to ONR on a broad, extremely multidisciplinary topic in a period (1 year) that was relatively short given the complexity of 2 February 14, 2006. DoD Directive 2000.19E. 3 At the outset of this study, the Technical Director and Chief Scientist of ONR was appointed to serve as chair of the JIEDD Laboratory Board (JLB), which was established to coordinate, synchronize, and sponsor middle-and long-term research, development, science, and technology that contribute to countering the IED threat. The status of the JLB structure was unclear at the time this report was completed. 4 Brief biographies of all committee members are presented in Appendix A.

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version the problem. To achieve that objective, the committee organized itself around specific technical subjects. The discussions in and structure of the committee’s report reflect that organization. The subjects were deemed of high priority either because of their applicability to the problem of IEDs and the relative lack of investment in these areas or because of promising research opportunities that the information provided to the committee and the committee members’ own experience indicated were untapped. The committee first convened in November 2005 and held meetings over a period of 7 months to gather input from relevant communities and to deliberate on its findings and recommendations. A summary of the committee’s data-gathering meetings is provided in Appendix B. The months after the committee’s meetings were spent in preparing the draft manuscript, gathering additional information, reviewing and responding to external-review comments, editing the report, and conducting the security review to produce this version of the report that does not disclose information as described in 5 U.S.C. 552(b). Many of the research subjects discussed here are worthy of much more detailed treatment than is possible in a report of such broad scope. Accordingly, the committee will be subsequently involved in organizing and executing two workshops, which will allow ONR to explore the more challenging research areas in additional depth with a larger cross-section of the research community. That will serve the dual purposes of helping ONR to frame its research programs and providing a forum to facilitate interactions between ONR and researchers in areas in which ONR has not traditionally been active. A brief summary resulting from the workshops will be issued. During the course of its study, the committee identified research avenues for countering IEDs that were clearly basic and others that might be considered basic by some but applied by others. Given the urgency and criticality of the IED threat, the committee felt that all its research recommendations should be discussed in this report, especially in light of the roles and responsibilities of ONR with respect to coordinating, synchronizing, and sponsoring both middle- and long-term research, development, science, and technology that could contribute to countering the IED threat. The committee anticipates that not only ONR but other entities, including those in JIEDDO, will read this report and have an opportunity to act on its suggestions—providing reason to be inclusive rather than exclusive when considering whether a research recommendation fell within the bounds of “basic” research. The sensitive nature of much of the information concerning IEDs and their use presented a challenge in the writing of the committee’s report. The committee’s report has been determined to contain information exempt from mandatory disclosure under 5 U.S.C. 552(b).

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version Section 15 of the Federal Advisory Committee Act provides that the National Academies shall make its final report available to the public unless the National Academies determines that the report would disclose matters described in one or more of the exemption provisions under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). If the National Academies determines that the report will disclose matters described in one or more of the FOIA exemptions, the National Academies “shall make public an abbreviated version of the report that does not disclose those matters.” This unrestricted, abbreviated version of the committee’s report was written to fulfill the National Academies’ statutory obligation. This abbreviated version fully represents, insofar as possible, the committee’s conclusions, recommendations, and other substantive material without disclosing matters described in title 5 U.S.C. section 552(b). Copies of the committee’s full report are available to the government and Department of Defense contractors by contacting the National Research Council’s Board on Chemical Studies and Technology (http://dels.nas.edu/bcst/index.shtml). Other requests will be considered on a case-by-case basis.

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version Acknowledgment of Reviewers National Research Council (NRC) reports are reviewed in draft form by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published reports as sound as possible and to ensure that the reports meet institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. Although the reviewers provide many constructive comments and suggestions, they are not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor do they see the final draft of reports before release. We thank the following for their review of the draft report: Mr. Thomas K. Burris, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Fort Worth, TX Dr. Anthony A. Cantu, U.S. Secret Service, Springfield, VA Mr. Michael Eisenstadt, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, DC Dr. Carl W. Lineberger, University of Colorado, Boulder MajGen Thomas S. Jones, United States Marine Corp, Retired Mr. Gary LaFree, University of Maryland, College Park Dr. Butler W. Lampson, Microsoft Corporation, Cambridge, MA Dr. Donald Prosnitz, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version Mr. Michael Sheehan, New York University, New York Dr. Richart E. Slusher, Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, NJ The review of the draft report was overseen by R. Stephen Berry, University of Chicago, and Hyla S. Napadensky, Napadensky Energetics Inc. (retired). Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the draft report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of NRC reports rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Countering the Threat of Improvised Explosive Devices: Basic Research Opportunities - Abbreviated Version Contents     Summary   1      The IED Threat,   1      Countering the IED Threat,   3      Research Recommendations,   4     References   10     Appendixes     A   Committee Membership   11 B   Summary of Data-Gathering Meetings   17 C   Glossary   19

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