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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Summary

The nation’s next-generation National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) was created by Presidential Decision Directive/National Science and Technology Council (NSTC)-2 of May 5, 1994, whereby the military and civil meteorological programs were merged into a single program.1 Within NPOESS, NOAA is responsible for satellite operations, the Department of Defense is responsible for major acquisitions, and NASA is responsible for the development and infusion of new technologies. In 2000, the NPOESS program anticipated purchasing six satellites for $6.5 billion, with a first launch in 2008. By November 2005, however, it became apparent that NPOESS would overrun its cost estimates by at least 25 percent, triggering the so-called Nunn-McCurdy review by the Department of Defense.

As a result of the June 2006 Nunn-McCurdy certification of NPOESS,2 the planned acquisition of six spacecraft was reduced to four, the launch of the first spacecraft was delayed until 2013, and several sensors were canceled or descoped in capability as the program was refocused on “core” requirements related to the acquisition of data to support numerical weather prediction. “Secondary” sensors that would provide crucial continuity to some long-term climate records, as well as other sensors that would have provided new measurement capabilities, are not funded in the new NPOESS program.3 Costs for NOAA’s next generation of geostationary weather satellites, GOES-R, have also risen dramatically, and late last year NOAA canceled plans to incorporate a key instrument on the spacecraft—HES (Hyperspectral Environmental Suite).

1

Note that acronyms not defined in the text, especially those denoting individual instruments and missions, are defined in Appendix D.

2

See U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Hearing Charter, “The Future of NPOESS: Results of the Nunn-McCurdy Review of NOAA’s Weather Satellite Program,” June 8, 2006, available at http://gop.science.house.gov/hearings/full06/June%208/charter.pdf.

3

In congressional testimony, the NOAA administrator stated, “Although the primary mission for NPOESS is to provide data for weather forecasting, many of the core sensors mentioned above and some of the secondary sensors would provide some additional climate and space weather observations. Unfortunately, difficult choices and trade-offs had to be made and the cost to procure these sensors is not included in the certified program; however, the program will plan for and fund the integration of these sensors on the spacecraft. Some of these sensors provide continuity to certain long-term climate records while other sensors would provide new data…. We specifically decided that the NPOESS spacecraft will be built with the capability to house all of the sensors and the program budget will include the dollars to integrate them on the spacecraft. This decision was made because the [executive committee] agreed any additional funding gained through contract renegotiation or in unutilized management reserve would be used to procure these secondary sensors.” Written testimony of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. (U.S. Navy, ret.), Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator, “Oversight Hearing on the Future of NPOESS: Results of the Nunn-McCurdy Review of NOAA’s Weather Satellite Program,” before the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, June 8, 2006.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

On June 19-21, 2007, the National Research Council (NRC) held a workshop, “Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft,” in Washington, D.C., to review options to recover measurement capabilities, especially those related to climate research, that were lost as a result of the Nunn-McCurdy actions and the cancellation of the HES sensor on GOES-R. Some 100 scientists and engineers from academia, government, and industry attended the workshop, which gave participants a chance to review and comment on a mitigation plan developed by NASA-NOAA as well as to explore options that were not included in the NASA-NOAA study. This workshop report summarizes those discussions; by design, it does not present findings or recommendations. A follow-on study that will develop consensus findings and recommendations is underway; a report from that study is scheduled for transmittal on January 31, 2008.

Subjects that were raised repeatedly by workshop participants, and that will be explored in more detail in the follow-on NRC study, include:

  • Preservation of long-term climate records. Many participants noted that the demanifesting of climate sensors from NPOESS has placed many long-term climate records at risk, including multidecadal records of total solar irradiance, Earth radiation budget, sea surface temperature, and sea ice extent. Some of these most fundamental data records require observational overlap to retain their value and require immediate attention to ensure their continuation. To ensure continuity of critical long-term climate measurements, many participants also stressed the need to pursue international partnerships and, when feasible, the leveraging of foreign Earth observation missions.

  • The potential benefits of relatively minor and low-cost changes to the NPOESS program. In several cases, a workshop participant suggested small nonhardware changes to NPOESS that could address areas of climate interest. Such changes included improving prelaunch characterization and documentation of all NPOESS instruments, adding minor software improvements to the Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)4 to make the data more climate-relevant, and downlinking full-resolution spectral data from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS)5 to enable creation of additional climate products.

  • The potential role of spacecraft formation flying in mitigation strategies. Formation flight can allow for the synergistic combination of measurements from multiple satellites, sometimes launched years apart. To allow for subsequent formation flight with NPOESS platforms, some participants suggested consideration of the requisite orbit maintenance and operations requirements as part of the mitigation strategy for restoring deleted NPOESS and GOES-R climate-observing capabilities.

  • Mitigation options beyond changes to NPOESS. While particular long-term records can be secured via the remanifesting of certain sensors onto NPOESS, many workshop participants noted that requirements for several could not be addressed even with the original suite of NPOESS instruments. Long-term records of sea level and ocean vector winds, for example, require different orbits and/or instruments to address critical climate observation needs. As a result, some participants heavily favored dedicated altimetry and scatterometry missions to fill this need. Further, some participants noted the critical importance of hyperspectral sounder measurements to climate science, suggesting restoration of CrIS/ATMS to the early-morning NPOESS orbit as well as the earliest-possible flight of a geostationary hyperspectral sounder to further improve temporal resolution.

  • The challenge of creating climate data records. Although NPP- and NPOESS-derived environmental data records (EDRs) may have considerable scientific value, climate data records (CDRs)6 are far more than a time series of EDRs. Many participants at the workshop emphasized the fundamental differences between products that are generated to meet short-term needs (EDRs) and those for which consistency of processing and reprocessing

4

VIIRS collects visible/infrared imagery and radiometric data. A key sensor on the NPOESS spacecraft, VIIRS contributes to 23 environmental data records (EDRs) and is the primary instrument associated with 18 EDRs. See description at http://www.ipo.noaa.gov/Technology/viirs_summary.html.

5

In conjunction with the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), the Cross-track Infrared Sounder collects atmospheric data to permit the calculation of temperature and moisture profiles at high temporal (~daily) resolution. See discussion at http://www.ipo.noaa.gov/Technology/cris_summary.html.

6

See NRC, Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPP and NPOESS Meteorological Satellites, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 2000, and NRC, Climate Data Records from Environmental Satellites: Interim Report, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2004.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×

over years to decades is an essential requirement (CDRs). Creation and maintenance of CDRs require algorithms, data-handling systems, calibration/validation, archival standards, access protocols, and prelaunch characterization that are different from those for operational data products.

  • The specifications of the MIS instrument. The specifications of the MIS (Microwave Imager and Sounder) instrument on NPOESS, which is to replace the now canceled CMIS (Conical Microwave Imager and Sounder) instrument, were not known at the time of the workshop. Thus, participants were unable to fully analyze mitigation options. In addition, several participants warned about the consequences of not having an all-weather sea surface temperature retrieval capability, emphasizing the importance of retaining a low-frequency 6.9 GHz channel as the instrument is reconsidered.

  • Sustaining climate observations. In the view of many participants, the loss of climate observations from NPOESS is of international concern and also imperils U.S. climate science leadership. Further, many participants noted that discussions at the workshop were focused on solving near-term climate measurement continuity issues, but that there would remain a longer-term problem of sustaining support for climate science. Issues noted included finding an appropriate balance between new and sustained climate observations and managing infusion of technology into long-term observational programs (including the challenges of doing so with a multi-spacecraft—block-buy—procurement). Workshop discussions also included what many participants cited as a key challenge: accommodating research needs within an operational program. Some participants argued that the relative priority of climate measurement needs would have to be heightened across the implementing agencies if climate and operational weather functions remain combined. Their concern was that in exploiting the commonalities of weather and climate observations, the unique needs of climate scientists would be overlooked. The perceived lack of attention to climate science needs within the Integrated Program Office, particularly calibration and validation requirements, led many participants to favor free-flyer options over integration with the NPOESS platforms.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 1
Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
Page 2
Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
×
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In 2000, the nation's next-generation National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program anticipated purchasing six satellites for $6.5 billion, with a first launch in 2008. By November 2005, however, it became apparent that NPOESS would overrun its cost estimates by at least 25 percent. In June 2006, the planned acquisition of six spacecraft was reduced to four, the launch of the first spacecraft was delayed until 2013, and several sensors were canceled or descoped in capability. To examine the impacts of these changes, particularly those associated with climate research, and ways to mitigate those impacts, NASA and NOAA asked the NRC to add this task to its ongoing "decadal survey," Earth Science and Applications from Space. The sponsors and the NRC agreed to address this task separately and to base its analysis on a major workshop. This book presents summaries of discussions at the workshop, which included sessions on the measurements and sensors originally planned for NPOESS and GOES-R; generation of climate data records; mitigation options, including the role of international partners; and cross-cutting issues.

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