Appendix C
Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop

Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals
Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II) June 19, 2007
Executive Summary [p. 2]

  • OSTP requested NOAA and NASA to provide:

    • An analysis of possible mitigation options of the climate impacts of the NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification through 2026

    • An assessment of the potential costs of these options

  • Primary goal: Ensure continuity of long-term climate records

  • NOAA and NASA analyzed the following options:

    • Remanifesting the climate sensors on NPOESS spacecraft

    • Placing sensors on currently planned non-NPOESS spacecraft

    • Developing new gap-filling climate satellite missions

    • Partnering opportunities

  • Key results:

    • Work in progress: still assessing options

    • Multiple options exist to mitigate the loss of sensors from NPOESS

    • Options consistent with Decadal Survey recommendations

    • Partnering for altimetry could provide significant cost savings

NOTE: B. Cramer, NASA Headquarters, “Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals. Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II),” presentation to the Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft Workshop, June 19, 2007, available at http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ssb/SSB_NPOESS2007_Presentations.html. The presentation as delivered at the workshop has been reformatted somewhat for publication. Page numbers in brackets refer to the original presentation. All information presented is pre-decisional, and assessments involve preliminary rough-order-of-magnitude cost estimates only.



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Appendix C Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II) June 19, 2007 Executive Summary [p. 2] • OSTP requested NOAA and NASA to provide: – An analysis of possible mitigation options of the climate impacts of the NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certi - fication through 2026 – An assessment of the potential costs of these options • Primary goal: Ensure continuity of long-term climate records • NOAA and NASA analyzed the following options: – Remanifesting the climate sensors on NPOESS spacecraft – Placing sensors on currently planned non-NPOESS spacecraft – Developing new gap-filling climate satellite missions – Partnering opportunities • Key results: – Work in progress: still assessing options – Multiple options exist to mitigate the loss of sensors from NPOESS – Options consistent with Decadal Survey recommendations – Partnering for altimetry could provide significant cost savings NOTE: B. Cramer, NASA Headquarters, “Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals. Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II),” presentation to the Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft Workshop, June 19, 2007, available at http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ssb/SSB_NPOESS2007_ Presentations.html. The presentation as delivered at the workshop has been reformatted somewhat for publication. Page numbers in brackets refer to the original presentation. All information presented is pre-decisional, and assessments involve preliminary rough-order-of-magnitude cost estimates only. 

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 OPTIONS TO ENSURE THE CLIMATE RECORD Climate Sensor Impact Assessment (summarized from January 2007 NASA/NOAA Joint Assessment) [pp. 3-4] • Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) – Essential to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change – Would continue 25� year long data record • Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS) – Continuously monitors the Earth’s radiation budget to identify subtle long-term shifts related to climate change – Would continue 21� year long data record • Ocean Altimeter (ALT) – Monitors sea level – Would continue 15� year long data record • Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) – Limb Subsystem – Measures the vertical distribution of stratospheric ozone to monitor and understand the ozone recovery resulting from the Montreal Protocol – Would continue 23� year long data record • Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) – Measures the global distribution of aerosols and their impact on the Earth’s energy balance, clouds, and precipitation • Conical Scanning Microwave Imager (CMIS) – Reduced Capability – Provides sea surface temperatures, sea ice and snow cover extents, soil moisture, ocean surface wind speed, water vapor, and precipitation rates even in the presence of heavy cloud cover – Continuous records date back to 1987 • Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) – Reduced Coverage (Absent from 0930 Orbit) – Multi-spectral imagers sample the spectral signatures of features on or near the Earth’s surface important to climate science – For over three decades, scientists have depended on this imagery for a wide variety of weather and climate applications • Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS)/Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) – Reduced Coverage (Absent from 0530 Orbit) – No mitigation recommended for climate science • Space Environment Sensor Suite (SESS) – Not considered here Development of Mitigation Options [p. 5] • Multiple options exist to mitigate the loss of sensors from NPOESS • Developed options using following criteria: – Minimize risk to measurement continuity • First priority for existing climate data records – Minimize risk to existing programs – Cost effectiveness • Economies of scale • Leverage planned missions and sensors including partnerships with other space agencies

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 APPENDIX C Potential Mitigation Options [p. 6] • Option 1: NPOESS � Gap Filler Climate Satellite • Option 2: Sequential Climate Satellites • Option 3: Sequential Climate Satellites w/TSIS Redundancy • Option 4: Sequential Climate Satellites w/TSIS Redundancy & Operational Risk Reduction • These options also include free-flyer altimetry missions and climate data record science support 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 Primary Mitigation Strategy 0 1 1 2 2 8 0 5 0 5 NPOESS C2 NPOESS C4 TSIS Climate Sat 1 Glory Climate Sat 2 SORCE LandSat DCM FOO. NPOESS C3 ERBS / CERES NPP Climate Sat 1 Terra, Aqua Climate Sat 2 Jason-x / Jason-4 / Altimeter OSTM Jason-1 Jason-3 Adv Alt x Adv Alt 1 NPOESS C3 OMPS (Nadir + Limb) Climate Sat 1 Aura NPP Climate Sat 2 NPOESS C3 APS Glory Climate Sat 2 Current and Planned Missions NASA-NOAA Mitigation Flight NPOESS Mitigation Flight FIGURE [C.1] Range of Options Examined for Climate Data Continuity. [p. 7] 1 AppC figure.eps

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 OPTIONS TO ENSURE THE CLIMATE RECORD WHITE PAPER BASELINE: Missions LRD TSIS ERBS / CERES ALT OMPS APS OSTM (Jason 2): 2008 Poseidon 3 Glory: 2009 TIM APS NPP: 2010 CERES OMPS-Limb NPOESS C1 Mission: 2013 ERBS OMPS-Limb APS NPOESS C2 Mission: 2016 TSIS NPOESS C3 Mission: 2020 ERBS OMPS-Limb Follow-on APS NPOESS C4 Mission: 2022 TSIS LDCM Mission: 2011 Flight of Opportunity: 2017 Jason 3 Mission: 2013 ALT Jason 4 Mission: 2017 Jason 5 Mission: 2021 Advanced Altimeter Mission # 1: 2017 ADV ALT Advanced Altimeter Mission # 2: 2021 ADV ALT Climate Free-Flyer # 1: 2014 Climate Free-Flyer # 2: 2020 Notes: = Mission in For mulation or Development = Mission Concept to Restore NPOESS De-Manifested Climate Sensors = Mission Not Involved in this Option FIGURE [C.2] Initial Recommendation from January 2007 Joint Assessment. [p. 8] NOTES: • VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4 figure.eps 2 AppC • AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit • CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2 OPTION # 1: Missions LRD TSIS ERBS / CERES ALT OMPS APS OSTM (Jason 2): 2008 Poseidon 3 Glory: 2009 TIM APS NPP: 2010 CERES OMPS-Limb NPOESS C1 Mission: 2013 NPOESS C2 Mission: 2016 TSIS NPOESS C3 Mission: 2020 ERBS OMPS-Limb Follow-on APS NPOESS C4 Mission: 2022 TSIS LDCM Mission: 2011 TSIS Flight of Opportunity: 2017 Jason 3 Mission: 2013 ALT Jason 4 Mission: 2017 Jason 5 Mission: 2021 Advanced Altimeter Mission # 1: 2017 ADV ALT Advanced Altimeter Mission # 2: 2021 ADV ALT APS Climate Free-Flyer # 1: 2014 TSIS ERBS OMPS Climate Free-Flyer # 2: 2020 Notes: = Mission in Formulation or Developmen t = Mission Concept to Restore NPOESS De-Manifested Climate Sensors = Mission Not Involved in this Option = Potential addition to option FIGURE [C.3] Option 1. NPOESS � Climate Satellite. [p. 9] NOTES: 3 AppC figure.eps • The manifest for C1 is frozen based on technical risk considerations • VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4 • AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit • CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

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 APPENDIX C TSIS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ACRIMSat TIM + SIM Potential SIM Gap SORCE TIM only Glory TIM + SIM LDCM TIM + SIM Climate Satellite #1 TIM + SIM NPOESS C2 Mission TIM + SIM NPOESS C4 Mission CERES 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Terra CERES Aqua CERES FM-5 NPP ERBS Climate Satellite #1 ERBS NPOESS C3 Mission OMPS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 OMI and MLS Aura (OMI and MLS) MLS & HIRDLS OMPS-Limb added NPP Comp lete OMPS Climate Satellite #1 OMPS-Limb added NPOESS C3 Mission APS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 APS Potential APS Gap Glory APS Climate Satellite #1 Follow-on APS NPOESS C3 Mission Altimetry 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 JASON 1 OSTM (JASON 2) JASON 3 Adv. Altimeter #1 Adv. Altimeter #2 Specified lifetime Extended operations Potential data gap FIGURE [C.4] Option 1. Continuity Timeline. NPOESS � Climate Satellite. [p. 10] 4 AppC figure.eps

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 OPTIONS TO ENSURE THE CLIMATE RECORD OPTION # 2: Missions LRD TSIS ERBS / CERES ALT OMPS APS OSTM (Jason 2): 2008 Poseidon 3 Glory: 2009 TIM APS NPP: 2010 CERES OMPS-Limb NPOESS C1 Mission: 2013 NPOESS C2 Mission: 2016 NPOESS C3 Mission: 2020 OMPS-Limb* NPOESS C4 Mission: 2022 LDCM Mission: 2011 TSIS Flight of Opportunity: 2017 Jason 3 Mission: 2013 ALT Jason 4 Mission: 2017 Jason 5 Mission: 2021 Advanced Altimeter Mission # 1: 2017 ADV ALT Advanced Altimeter Mission # 2: 2021 ADV ALT Climate Free-Flyer # 1: 2014 TSIS ERBS OMPS APS Climate Free-Flyer # 2: 2020 TSIS ERBS OMPS* Follow-on APS Notes: = Mission in Formula tion or Development = Mission Concept to Restore NPOESS De-Ma nifested Climate Sensors = Mission Not Involved in this Option = Potenti al addition to option * OMPS flies on either C3 or Climate Sat # 2 FIGURE [C.5] Option 2. Sequential Climate Satellites. [p. 11] NOTES: • The manifest for C1 is frozen based5on technical risk.eps AppC figure considerations • VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4 • AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit • CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

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 APPENDIX C TSIS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ACRIMSat TIM + SIM Potential SIM Gap SORCE TIM only Glory TIM + SIM LDCM TIM + SIM Climate Satellite #1 TIM + SIM Climate Satellite #2 CERES 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Terra CERES Aqua CERES FM-5 NPP ERBS Climate Satellite #1 ERBS NPOESS C3 Mission OMPS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 OMI and MLS Aura (OMI and MLS) MLS & HIRDLS OMPS-Limb added NPP Complete OMPS Climate Satellite #1 Oomplete OMPS d C MPS -Limb adde NPOESS C3 or Climate Satellite #2 APS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 APS Potential APS Gap Glory APS Climate Satellite #1 Follow-on APS Climate Satellite #1 Altimetry 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 JASON 1 OSTM (JASON 2) JASON 3 Adv. Altimeter #1 Adv. Altimeter #2 Specified lifetime Extended operations Potential data gap FIGURE [C.6] Option 2. Continuity Timeline. Sequential Climate Satellites. [p. 12] 6 AppC figure.eps

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0 OPTIONS TO ENSURE THE CLIMATE RECORD OPTION # 3: Missions LRD TSIS ERBS / CERES ALT OMPS APS OSTM (Jason 2): 2008 Poseidon 3 Glory: 2009 TIM APS NPP: 2010 CERES OMPS-Limb NPOESS C1 Mission: 2013 NPOESS C2 Mission: 2016 NPOESS C3 Mission: 2020 OMPS-Limb* NPOESS C4 Mission: 2022 LDCM Mission: 2011 TSIS Flight of Opportunity: 2017 TSIS Jason 3 Mission: 2013 ALT Jason 4 Mission: 2017 Jason 5 Mission: 2021 Advanced Altimeter Mission # 1: 2017 ADV ALT Advanced Altimeter Mission # 2: 2021 ADV ALT Climate Free-Flyer # 1: 2014 TSIS ERBS OMPS APS Climate Free-Flyer # 2: 2020 TSIS ERBS OMPS* Follow-on APS Notes: = Mission in Formulation or Developmen t = Mission Concept to Restore NPOESS De- Manifested Climate Sensors = Mission Not Involved in this Option = Potential addition to option * OMPS flies on either C3 or Climate Sat # 2 OPTION # 4: Option # 3 with the Climate Free-Flyers having a specified on-orbit life from 5 to 7 years FIGURE [C.7] Option 3 and 4. Sequential Climate Satellites � TSIS Redundancy. [p. 13] NOTES: • The manifest for C1 is frozen based AppC figure.eps 7 on technical risk considerations • VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4 • AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit • CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

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 APPENDIX C TSIS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ACRIMSat TIM + SIM Potential SIM Gap SORCE TIM only Glory TIM + SIM LDCM TIM + SIM Climate Satellite #1 TIM + SIM Flight of Opportunity TIM + SIM Climate Satellite #2 CERES 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Terra CERES Aqua CERES FM-5 NPP ERBS Climate Satellite #1 ERBS Climate Satellite #2 OMPS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Aura MLS & HIRDLS and MLS OMI OMPS-Limb added NPP Complete OMPS Climate Satellite #1 Complete OMPS d OMPS-Limb adde NPOESS C3 or Climate Satellite #2 APS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 APS Potential APS Gap Glory APS Climate Satellite #1 Follow -on APS Climate Satellite #2 Altimetry 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 JASON 1 OSTM (JASON 2) JASON 3 Adv. Altimeter #1 Adv. Altimeter #2 Specified lifetime Extended operations Potential data gap FIGURE [C.8] Option 3 and 4. Continuity Timeline. Sequential Climate Satellites � TSIS Redundancy. [p. 14] 8 AppC figure.eps Current Studies [p. 15] • Work in progress: still exploring options • NPOESS remanifest – Assessed 2 options for earliest return to NPOESS flights (C2-C4) • NASA procures and delivers sensors to NPOESS as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) • The Integrated Program Office (IPO) procures sensors via current prime contractor overseeing subcon - tracted instrument vendors • Altimetry – Altimetry capability explored as free-flying Jason follow-on and as advanced altimeter missions • Climate satellite missions – Examined 2 research-grade missions • Additionally explored TSIS (total and spectral) on Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and International Space Station (ISS) • Currently assessing CERES on NPP

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 OPTIONS TO ENSURE THE CLIMATE RECORD – Examined 2 operational-grade missions • Used sensor analysis from NASA plus spacecraft development analysis from NOAA Polar Extended Mission study (2006) Climate Data Record (CDR) Science Support [p. 16] • Includes development, production, reprocessing, stewardship, and distribution • Assumes data from all NPOESS certified sensors and mitigation sensors / sources • Covers about 30 Climate Change Science Program essential climate variables • Will be covered in more detail in following presentation Free Flyer Climate Satellite [p. 17] • Would fly in formation with NPOESS PM to provide imager data • Two options were examined: – Research spacecraft • Planned 5-year mission • Single string development with selective redundancy • Inexpensive, non-standard launch vehicle • Ground segment leverages existing systems. – Operational spacecraft • Planned 7-year mission with additional redundancy • Standard launch vehicle • Additional investment in ground segment • Current cost estimate range for a 3-sensor satellite is approximately $700M-$1100M – CDR Science Support is an additional $300M-$450M Altimetry Options [p. 18] • NPOESS sun-synchronous orbits are NOT ideal for precision altimetry • Flight of an altimeter on NPOESS is NOT recommended • For this analysis, “free flyer” satellites in the NOAA / EUMETSAT JASON series are assumed – Three satellites beyond JASON 2 required to provide coverage to 2026 – Costs estimated for JASON 3, 4, and 5 – Advanced altimeter costs also estimated • May replace JASON class missions starting with JASON 4 • Independent of this study, U.S. Navy is working with the IPO to develop costs and options to procure an operational oceanography radar altimeter • Current total cost estimate for a series of 3 missions ranges from approximately $1.5B-$2.1B – CDR Science Support is an additional ~$200M – Current cost estimate for a single JASON follow-on is approximately $470M with the potential for 50/50 cost sharing with partners

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 APPENDIX C TABLE Climate Goal Partnering Opportunities (Preliminary) [p. 19] Partner Sensor or Capability Timeframe Role EUMETSAT Jason-3 2013-2018 Mitigate NASA/Navy Adv. Altimeter TBD Mitigate Increasing Potential → ESA/JAXA (Earthcare) APS/ERBS-like 2010-20xx Mitigate ESA GMES Sentinel 3 Altimeter Complement Navy (NPOESS) Altimeter (Op) 2016-2026 Complement Navy (DoD Space Test Program) Altimeter (Op) Complement CNES Megha-Tropiques ERBS-like Complement Chinese SOA (HY series) Altimeter Mitigate Brazilian Space Agency (Amazonia) Flight Opportunity 2010/2015 Accommodation EUMETSAT (MSG) ERBS-like on-orbit Complement Chinese Met. Agency (FY series) ERBS-like Mitigate ESA PARASOL APS-like on-orbit Complement Related Concerns [p. 20] • VIIRS – Reduced imaging capability for mid-morning orbit • Discussions on-going with EUMETSAT about an advanced imager on METOP-D – Optical Crosstalk • MIS – Reduced capability microwave imager – First MIS scheduled to fly on NPOESS C2 (2016) – Discussion on-going with JAXA about AMSR-2 – Pursuing several options for continuity of ocean vector wind measurements TABLE Near-Term Planning [p. 21] Decision/Funding Commitment Launch Readiness Date CERES on NPP September 2007 / FY07* September 2009 TSIS on LDCM January 2008 / FY09 Late 2011 JASON-3 Decision CY08 / FY10 2013 First Climate Free-Flyer Mid 2009 / Pre-Phase A FY08 2014 * Would require re-allocation of existing funds Next Steps [p. 22] • Listen closely to the input from this Workshop • Continue to work with OSTP • Continue dialogue regarding potential international and/or domestic partnerships

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 OPTIONS TO ENSURE THE CLIMATE RECORD Backups [pp. 23-24] Reductions of Climate-Relevant Sensors EARLY-AM MID-AM PM New C2 New C4 New C1 New C3 NPOESS Instruments NPP (2016) (2022) (2013) (2020) Old (C6) Old (C3) MetOp (2013) (2016) Old (C2) Old (C5) Old (C1) Old (C4) (2011) (2015) (2009) (2014) Reduced Capability Sensors CMIS* Reduced Coverage Sensors CrlS/ATMS IASI/AMSU VIIRS AVHRR De-manifested Sensors TSIS CERES CERES/ERBS ALT OMPS** APS *CMIS to be redefined as a less capable, less expensive sensor Remains Intact No Change/Not Relevant **OMPS Limb Subsystem is cancelled and only the Nadir Reduced Capability Related Missions capability is maintained Deleted Implies Sensor Present FIGURE [C.9] NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification. Reductions of Climate-Relevant Sensors. [p. 24] 9 AppC figure.eps