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Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2008. Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12087.
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Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2008. Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12087.
×
Page 41
Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2008. Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12087.
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Page 42

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References Goddard, L., A. Kumar, A. G. Barnston and M. P. Hoerling 2006 Diagnosis of anomalous winter temperatures over the eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño. Journal of Climate, 19: 5624-5636. Hartmann, H.C., T.C. Pagano, S. Sorooshian, and R. Bales 2002 Confidence builders: Evaluating seasonal climate forecasts from user perspectives. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83:683-698. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. McNie, E.C., R. Pielke, Jr., and D. Sarewitz 2007 Climate Science Policy: Lessons From the RISAS. Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes. Tempe, AZ: Arizona State University. Available: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/risa/workshop_report.ht ml [August 2007]. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Washington, DC: Island Press. National Research Council 1989 Improving Risk Communication. Committee on Risk Perception and Communication, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 1996 Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society. Committee on Risk Characterization, P.C. Stern and H.V. Fineberg, eds. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 1999a Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems. Panel on Climate Observing Systems Status, Climate Research Committee, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 1999b Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal- to-Interannual Climate Variability, P.C. Stern and W.E. Easterling, eds. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 2000 Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations, Climate Research Committee, Commission on 40

Geosciences, Environment, and Resources. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 2004a Climate Data Records from Environmental Satellites: Interim Report. Committee on Climate Data Records from NOAA Operational Satellites. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. 2004b Implementing Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan. Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. 2005a Decision Making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities. Panel on Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities for Environmental Decision Making, G.D. Brewer and P.C. Stern, eds. Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. 2005b Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting: Summary of a Workshop. D. Cash and J. Buizer, Rapporteurs. Report to the Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability, Division of Policy and Global Affairs. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. 2006a Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. 2006b Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS). Committee to Assess the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Initiative, Water Science and Technology Board, Division of Earth and Life Studies. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. 2008 Research and Networks for Decision Support in the NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program. Panel on Design Issues for the NOAA Sector Applications Research Program, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. H.M. Ingram and P.C. Stern, eds. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Rayner, S., D. Lach, and H. Ingram 2005 Weather forecasts are for wimps: Why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts. Climatic Change 69:197-227. Rip, A., and R. Kemp 1998 Technological change. Pp 327-399 in S. Rayner and E.L. Malone, eds., Human Choice and Climate Change, Volume 2. Columbus, OH: Battelle Press. Trenberth, K.E., T.R. Karl, and T.W. Spence 2002 The need for a systems approach to climate observations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83:593–1602. 41

U.S. Climate Change Science Program 2006 Prospectus for Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data. Washington DC: Author. [available at http://www.climatescience.gov]. U.S. Government Accountability Office 2007 Climate Change Agencies Should Develop Guidance for Addressing the Effects on Federal Land and Water Resources. GAO-07-863. August. Washington, DC: Author. Vicuña S., and J.A. Dracup 2006 The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California. Climatic Change 82(3-4):327-350. Weingart, P., A. Engels, and P. Panescrau 2000 Risks of communication: Discourses on climate change in science, politics, and the media. Public Understanding of Science 9:261-283. 42

Next: APPENDIX A Topics for Synthesis and Assessment Products of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program »
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This study offered an independent peer review for a synthetic document being produced for the CCSP. It found the draft document to be in a fairly early stage of development and noted several issues needing attention in the revision. The draft was inconsistent across sections with respect to whether or not it accepted two assumptions: that more skillful forecasts necessarily have greater value, and that the most useful form of information is a projected future value of an outcome parameter with an uncertainty distribution. Available scientific evidence gives reason to question these assumptions, and the draft did not discuss the evidence. Among other issues needing attention, the review called for the revised draft to do more to substantiate its claims of the potential benefits of knowledge-action networks and to give more careful consideration to the appropriate balance of roles between governmental and private efforts.

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