The following HTML text is provided to enhance online
readability. Many aspects of typography translate only awkwardly to HTML.
Please use the page image
as the authoritative form to ensure accuracy.
Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation
ANNEX 3.A: METHODS AND ASSUMPTIONS
This annex provides a description of some of the key methods and assumptions that were used to develop the energy supply, savings, and cost estimates made in this report. More detailed explanations of these methods and assumptions can be found in Chapters 4–9 of Part 2.
Energy Supply and Cost Estimates
The methodologies and assumptions used to develop the energy supply and cost estimates in this report are shown in Table 3.A.1. Each row in the table is described in the bulleted list that follows:
Reference scenario. The statement of task for this study (see Box 1.1) called for the development of a reference scenario “that reflects a projection of current economic, technology cost and performance, and policy parameters into the future.” This reference scenario is the “base case” for comparison with the AEF Committee’s energy savings and supply estimates resulting from the accelerated deployment of technology. The committee adopted the Energy Information Administration’s reference case as the reference scenario for this study (see Box 2.1). The reference case for 2007 (EIA, 2008) was used for all but one of the energy supply assessments. The exception was renewable energy, which used the reference case for 2008 (EIA, 2009) because it contained estimates of capital costs for renewable energy technologies that the committee judged to be more realistic than the EIA (2008) estimates.
Source of cost estimates and models used to obtain estimates describe the methodologies that were used by the AEF Committee to estimate energy supply costs—either the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE; see Box 2.3) or the costs of liquid fuels. Committee-derived model estimates (i.e., developed by the committee itself or for the committee by consultants) were used for the costs of fossil, nuclear, and alternative liquid fuel technologies. The fossil- and alternative-liquid fuel cost estimates were developed using a common set of models and assumptions (see Box 7.2 in Chapter 7). The nuclear energy cost estimates were developed using a different but comparable set of models and assumptions (see Box 8.4 in Chapter 8). The renewable energy cost estimates were