TABLE 4.5 Plausible Share of Advanced Light-Duty Vehicles in the New-Vehicle Market by 2020 and 2035 (percent)

Propulsion System

2020

2035

Turbocharged gasoline SI vehicles

10–15

25–35

Diesel vehicles

6–12

10–20

Gasoline hybrid vehicles

10–15

15–40

PHEV

1–3

7–15

HFCV

0–1

3–6

BEV

0–2

3–10

Note: The percentage of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles being “plausible” is in contrast to the percentages reported in NRC (2008a), which represent “maximum practical” shares.

Savings in Total Fleet Fuel Consumption from Deployment of Light-Duty Vehicles

As noted previously, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) requires CAFE standards to be set for LDVs through 2020 in order to ensure that the industry-wide average fuel economy by that time is at least 35 mpg. This would be a 40 percent increase over today’s average of 25 mpg.22

The AEF Committee examined two scenarios to explore how the deployment of the advanced technologies listed in Table 4.3, together with vehicle-efficiency improvements (such as reductions in vehicle weight, aerodynamic drag, and tire rolling resistance), could reduce the petroleum consumption of the LDV fleet in the United States. These scenarios, based on the methodology described in Bandivadekar et al. (2008), are not predictions of what the LDV fleet will be like in the future. Instead, they are intended as illustrative examples of the degree of change to the LDV fleet that will be necessary to improve fleet average fuel economy. The two scenarios—termed “optimistic” and “conservative”—are described below.

  • Optimistic scenario. The new CAFE target of 35 mpg for LDVs is met in 2020. This improvement rate is then extrapolated out through 2035. Under this scenario, 75 percent of the improvement is used to reduce actual fuel consumption; the remaining 25 percent is offset by increases

22

As noted previously, the Obama administration recently announced new policies that will accelerate the implementation of these fuel-economy standards.



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