America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation

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America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation (2009)
National Academy of Engineering (NAE)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
National Research Council (NRC)

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. "4 Energy Efficiency." America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2009.

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation

TABLE 4.6 Illustrative Vehicle Sales Mix Scenarios

	Percent Emphasis on Reducing Fuel Consumption^a	Percent Light Trucks vs. Cars	Percent Vehicle Weight Reduction	Market Share by Power Train (percent)						Percent Fuel Efficiency Increase from Today
	Percent Emphasis on Reducing Fuel Consumption^a	Percent Light Trucks vs. Cars	Percent Vehicle Weight Reduction	Naturally Aspirated SI	Turbo SI	Diesel	Hybrid	Plug-in Hybrid	Total Advanced Power Train	Percent Fuel Efficiency Increase from Today
Optimistic
2020	75	40	17	52	26	7	15	0	48	+38
2035	75	30	25	36	26	9	20	9	64	+100
Conservative
2025	50	40	17	55	24	7	14	0	45	+38
2035	50	40	20	49	21	7	16	7	51	+62
Note: Assumed average new-vehicle weight (cars and light trucks) currently is 1900 kg (4180 lb). Thus, average weight reductions of 700–1050 lb per vehicle would be required. Neither of these scenarios includes BEVs or FCVs. ^aThe amount of the efficiency improvement that is dedicated to reducing fuel consumption (i.e., that is not offset by increases in vehicle power, size, and weight).