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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation
FIGURE 4.7Vehicle fleet fuel use for the no-change baseline and the optimistic and conservative scenarios described in the text.
TABLE 4.7 Cumulative Fuel Savings from the Baseline Shown in Figure 4.7
Today through 2020 (billion gallons)
2020 through 2035 (billion gallons)
Optimistic scenario
86
834
Conservative scenario
64
631
Note: The no-change baseline assumes constant sales mix by power train, constant ratio of light trucks versus cars, 0.8 percent compounded annual growth in new-vehicle sales, and 0.1–0.5 percent increase in vehicle travel.
TABLE 4.8 Annual Fuel Savings in 2020 and 2035 from the No-Change Baseline Shown in Figure 4.7
2020 (billion gallons/year)
2035 (billion gallons/year)
Optimistic scenario
21
86
Conservative scenario
16
66
Note: The no-change baseline assumes no change in average new-vehicle fuel consumption, a constant ratio of light trucks versus cars, and a 0.8 percent compounded annual growth in new-vehicle sales. It also assumes that growth in vehicle travel slows from 0.5 percent to 0.1 percent per year over 25 years, and that any efficiency improvements are fully offset by increases in vehicle performance, size, and weight.
