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America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation (2009)
National Academy of Engineering (NAE)
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
National Research Council (NRC)

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation

Index

A

Acetone-butanol-ethanol process, 253

ActaCell, 163

Advanced materials, 29, 74, 87, 184, 190, 281, 282, 513, 581

Air-quality standards, 88

Air transportation

air-traffic management, 157

consumption of energy, 157, 167

demand, 170

energy efficiency improvements, 45, 167, 170

freight, 86, 170

passenger, 86 n.8, 167, 170

Algal biodiesel, 75, 89, 252-253

Alkanes, 221, 225, 252

All Cell Technologies, 163

Altair Nanotechnologies, 163

Alternative transportation fuels.

See also Biofuels;

Cellulosic ethanol;

Coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuels;

Coal-to-liquid fuels;

Corn ethanol;

Light-duty vehicles

barriers to deployment, 93-94, 250-252

biochemical conversion, 67, 90-91, 93, 219, 220-225, 234, 235-236, 237, 238, 241-242, 243, 244-245, 247, 248-249, 251, 252, 253, 256-258

carbon capture and storage, 4, 5, 64, 65, 66, 72, 73, 78, 94, 212, 220, 224-225, 226, 227, 228, 229-230, 231-233, 236, 237-238, 239, 250-251

carbon price, 38 n.1, 93, 234, 237, 238, 239-240, 244, 252, 371, 406

CO2 emissions, 4, 62, 71-73, 222, 224-225, 227-228, 232, 233-239, 243-244, 248-249, 262

coal liquefaction, 91, 211-212, 220-221, 226, 227, 230-232, 261, 335

compressed natural gas, 94, 258, 259-261

conversion technologies, 90-92, 219-233;

see also Biochemical;

Thermochemical

costs, 66-67, 92-93, 233-244, 252, 265-266

deployment scenarios, 93-94, 244-248, 252-267

dimethyl ether, 94, 258, 262-263

environmental impacts (non-greenhouse), 212, 248-249

feedstock supply, 213-219, 233-234, 235, 236, 241-244

findings, 3-4, 62-67, 73, 217-218, 224-225, 231-233, 243-244, 246-248

hydrogen, 4, 5, 6, 30, 44, 45, 67, 73, 74, 75, 84, 85, 94, 158, 160, 161, 164, 165, 166, 173, 174, 195, 258, 263-267

infrastructure for distribution, 90, 93, 221, 223, 224, 226, 251-252, 253, 254, 256, 259, 260, 263

methanol, 72, 94, 226, 258-259, 262

panel report, 31, 81

petroleum substitution potential, 73, 212, 245, 265-267

public policies and, 252, 264-265

RD&D, 74-75, 221, 247, 255, 265, 267

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation Index A Acetone-butanol-ethanol process, 253 ActaCell, 163 Advanced materials, 29, 74, 87, 184, 190, 281, 282, 513, 581 Air-quality standards, 88 Air transportation air-traffic management, 157 consumption of energy, 157, 167 demand, 170 energy efficiency improvements, 45, 167, 170 freight, 86, 170 passenger, 86 n.8, 167, 170 Algal biodiesel, 75, 89, 252-253 Alkanes, 221, 225, 252 All Cell Technologies, 163 Altair Nanotechnologies, 163 Alternative transportation fuels. See also Biofuels; Cellulosic ethanol; Coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuels; Coal-to-liquid fuels; Corn ethanol; Light-duty vehicles barriers to deployment, 93-94, 250-252 biochemical conversion, 67, 90-91, 93, 219, 220-225, 234, 235-236, 237, 238, 241-242, 243, 244-245, 247, 248-249, 251, 252, 253, 256-258 carbon capture and storage, 4, 5, 64, 65, 66, 72, 73, 78, 94, 212, 220, 224-225, 226, 227, 228, 229-230, 231-233, 236, 237-238, 239, 250-251 carbon price, 38 n.1, 93, 234, 237, 238, 239-240, 244, 252, 371, 406 CO2 emissions, 4, 62, 71-73, 222, 224-225, 227-228, 232, 233-239, 243-244, 248-249, 262 coal liquefaction, 91, 211-212, 220-221, 226, 227, 230-232, 261, 335 compressed natural gas, 94, 258, 259-261 conversion technologies, 90-92, 219-233; see also Biochemical; Thermochemical costs, 66-67, 92-93, 233-244, 252, 265-266 deployment scenarios, 93-94, 244-248, 252-267 dimethyl ether, 94, 258, 262-263 environmental impacts (non-greenhouse), 212, 248-249 feedstock supply, 213-219, 233-234, 235, 236, 241-244 findings, 3-4, 62-67, 73, 217-218, 224-225, 231-233, 243-244, 246-248 hydrogen, 4, 5, 6, 30, 44, 45, 67, 73, 74, 75, 84, 85, 94, 158, 160, 161, 164, 165, 166, 173, 174, 195, 258, 263-267 infrastructure for distribution, 90, 93, 221, 223, 224, 226, 251-252, 253, 254, 256, 259, 260, 263 methanol, 72, 94, 226, 258-259, 262 panel report, 31, 81 petroleum substitution potential, 73, 212, 245, 265-267 public policies and, 252, 264-265 RD&D, 74-75, 221, 247, 255, 265, 267

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation supply, 233-234, 235, 236, 241-244 synthetic (GTL) diesel fuel, 94, 223, 258, 261, 263 technologies ready beyond 2020, 252-258 technologies ready beyond 2020 and 2035, 258-267 Aluminum industry, 175, 176, 179, 190, 185, 312 American Electric Power, 100, 314, 573, 602, 603, 625 American Iron and Steel Institute, 87, 182 American Lung Association, 404 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, 272, 273, 274 American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, 152 n.12, 194 American Wind Energy Association, 272, 310 Ammonia, 249, 401, 402, 422, 423, 431, 432, 434-435, 512 Anaerobic digestion, 253, 283 Appliances and electronics availability, 153 biomass-fueled, 322 consumer-targeted programs, 200 demand for, 137 energy-efficiency standards, 154 n.13, 192, 193-194, 197, 198, 200 energy savings, 41, 193-194 improvements in, 142 information availability, 87-88 lifespan, 141 load management technologies, 84, 153, 585, 597, 605-606, 617, 630 manufacturing, 175 in new homes, 137, 151 potential savings, 146, 147, 148 R&D, 194-195 remanufactured, 185 tax credits, 195 wood-burning, 322 Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 344, 345, 351, 354, 355 Argonne National Laboratory, 163, 370 n.21, 388, 523 n.19 Arsenic, 249 Australia, 20, 286, 485, 486, 535, 538, 540 Automotive Energy Supply joint venture, 163 B Battery technologies costs, 85, 163, 168, 582, 625 deployment timeframe, 116, 163, 626 industry alliances and partnerships, 163 for LDVs, 4, 5, 6, 76, 85, 159, 160, 162-163, 174, 263-264 lead-acid, 162, 582, 627 lithium ion, 162-163, 625, 627 nickel cadmium, 627 nickel metal hydride, 625, 627 performance capabilities, 85, 159, 163, 165 R&D opportunities, 6, 30, 76, 79, 85, 625-626 reliability issues, 582, 625 size/weight considerations, 159, 160 sodium-sulfur, 582, 625, 627 status of, 162 for T&D system storage, 6, 51, 61, 78, 291, 307, 309, 582, 584, 601, 616, 634, 625-626, 627 vanadium redox, 625, 627 ZEBRA, 627 zinc bromide, 625, 627 Behavior. See Consumer behavior Biobutanol, 89, 213, 220, 221, 253-254 Biochemical conversion of fuel air emissions, 248-249 biobutanol, 253 carbon capture and storage, 220, 224-225, 236, 237-238 cellulosic ethanol, 67, 90-91, 93, 221-225, 234, 235-236, 237, 244-245, 251 corn ethanol, 90, 91, 219-220, 234, 241-242 costs, 90, 92-93, 222, 223, 224, 234, 237, 238, 241, 251, 252 findings, 224-225 genomics applications, 225, 256-257 and greenhouse gases, 90, 222, 224-225, 234, 248-249 metabolic and bioprocess engineering applications, 256, 257-258 plant siting, 247-248 process, 220-225 RD&D, 90, 221-222, 224 supply of fuel from, 90-91, 241-242, 243, 244-245 synthetic biology applications, 257

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation technical challenges, 225, 251 technology improvement scenarios, 222-225, 251, 256-258 transport and distribution challenges, 90, 221, 223 water use, 248 Biodiesel, 37, 62 n.17, 75, 89, 213, 252-253 Biofuels. See also Biochemical conversion; Biomass; Biomass-to-liquid fuels; Cellulosic ethanol; Coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuels; Corn ethanol advanced, 66, 221, 224-225 algal biodiesel, 75, 89, 252-253 bacteria- and yeast-based direct routes to, 255-256 biobutanol, 89, 213, 220, 221, 253-254 from CO2 feedstocks, 74-75 consumption, 21, 37 greenhouse gas emissions, 212, 213, 224-225 hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, 3-4, 225, 254-255 potential of, 66, 73, 212, 245 production strategy, 247-248 R&D, 74-75, 221-222, 224 Biomass carbon issues, 72, 221, 229 co-fed coal, see Coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuel consumption, 17, 18, 332 cost of energy from, 58 on CRP lands, 89, 214, 215, 218, 234 diesel fuel components, 255 distance from conversion plant, 215-216, 217 electricity generation, see Biopower environmental impacts of crops, 248 findings, 217-218 food/feed crop displacement, 89, 213, 217, 233, 289, 299 gasification technologies, 226, 227, 228, 229, 232, 361-362 n.15, 386, 422 gasoline blend stock, 254-255 greenhouse gas emissions, 69, 72, 212 hydrocarbon fuels from, 254-255 incentives for growers, 89-90, 216-217, 218 industrial use, 17, 180 non-electricity applications, 32, 321-322 price delivered to conversion plant, 215 supply, 32, 37, 66, 77, 89-90, 211, 213-217, 221, 229-230, 233, 235 sustainable production, 89, 214-215, 217-218 systems approach to production, 216-217 Biomass-to-liquid fuels. See also Biochemical conversion competitiveness, 239-240 costs, 67, 91, 217, 222-223, 224, 234, 237-238, 239-240, 241, 251, 252 environmental concerns, 212 feedstock supply, 213-217 greenhouse gas emissions, 71, 91, 212, 227, 234, 237-238, 239 R&D, 217-218 supply of fuel from, 37, 241-242, 243, 244-245 thermochemical conversion, 91, 226, 227, 228, 229, 232, 239-240 Biopower build time, 128 capacity, 128, 390-391 carbon balance, 69, 288, 386-390 co-firing with coal, 361-362 n.15, 391 cost estimates, 57, 58, 126, 294-295, 390 defined, 287-288 employment, 304 environmental impacts, 101, 288, 302 feedstock supply, 32, 287-288, 289, 299 landfill gas fuel, 97, 272 n.2, 287, 288, 387 land-use values, 301 market share, 304 municipal solid waste fuel, 89, 97, 213-214, 217, 235, 235, 272, 273, 287 oxygen-blown gasification, 288-289, 386, 419, 421 policies, 273 pretreatment step, 221, 222, 224, 288-289, 251, 288 prospects, 299, 385-391 readiness for deployment, 291, 317 sources, 97, 235, 272 n.2 supply of electricity, 36, 51, 271-272, 288, 316, 317, 385-386 technology description, 97, 287-289 wood-based, 97, 272 n.2, 288 Biotechnology, 4, 254, 255-258 Brazil, 20 British Petroleum, 254, 336 Buildings sector. See also Appliances; Commercial; Residential advanced technologies, 83-84, 149-152, 155 barriers to improving energy efficiency, 77, 152-154, 155

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation capital investment needs, 83, 148, 152-154 combined heat and power production, 83, 144, 155 conservation supply curves, 40, 82, 83, 140, 144, 145-149 consumption of energy, 2, 14, 83, 137, 139, 141-142 cooling and heating systems, 14, 41, 47, 83, 145, 149, 150, 193 cost-effectiveness of improvements, 41, 148, 155 cost of conserved energy, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 145, 146-148, 149 drivers for improving, 84, 154, 155 electricity consumption, 41, 42, 47, 139, 141, 146-147, 155 electricity generation capacity, 154-155 end-use and technology approach, 145, 150 energy codes, 38-39 n.1, 40, 50, 88, 146, 153, 154, 192, 194, 198, 199, 200, 201, 319 energy efficiency, 2, 38-39 n.1, 40-41, 42, 47-49, 87-88, 136-137, 140, 141-155, 193, 194, 195, 197 energy intensity, 141-142 findings, 2, 47-49, 154-155 integrated (whole-building) approaches, 84, 143-144, 145, 149-152, 155 lighting, 47, 50, 83, 84, 142, 143-144, 146, 147, 149, 150-151, 153, 154 n.12, 155, 193, 194, 195, 197 limitations of studies, 143, 155 natural gas consumption, 14, 15, 17, 24, 37, 41, 48-49, 139, 146-147, 155, 259, 331 payback period for technologies, 82, 148, 153 petroleum consumption, 17, 24, 139 potential energy savings, 47-49, 50, 83, 143-145, 155 projected energy demand, 41, 42 RD&D, 150, 197 reference case, 141, 145-146 regulatory policies, 87, 152-153 retail price of energy, 47-48, 83, 148, 149, 152 services for improving energy efficiency, 153-154 stock of buildings, 141 tax credits, 195-196 windows, 84, 144, 149, 150-151, 155, 194-195, 197 Bureau of Land Management, 351, 352 Bush (George H.W.), administration, 26, 458 n.34 Bush (George W.), administration, 26, 458 n.34, 461, 470, 492, 510 Business-as-usual reference case, xi, 36 alternative transportation fuels, 93-94, 247 buildings sector, 2, 141, 145-146 CO2 emissions, 2, 11 deployment of technologies, 93-94 energy efficiency improvement, 2, 141, 145-146, 177, 178-179, 186 energy supply and consumption, 12, 36 fossil fuels, 11 industrial sector, 2, 141, 177, 186 nuclear power, 446-447 transmission and distribution system, 635 transportation sector, 2, 141, 247 C California air emission standards, 263, 393-394, 404 electricity demand, 617 electricity T&D, 567, 581 n.22, 617 energy efficiency standards, 191, 193, 196, 198, 199-200 geologic storage of CO2, 340 nuclear power, 481 n.82, 531 Canada carbon capture and storage, 424 crude oil resources, 416 electricity T&D interconnections, 567, 573 methane hydrate mining, 418 natural gas exports, 15, 102-103, 336 n.3, 346 nuclear power, 507 tar sand resources, 340, 408-409 uranium resources, 485, 538 Cap and trade programs, 38 n.1, 189, 252, 393-394, 406 Carbon accounting, 230, 251, 368, 387-388 Carbon capture and storage (CCS). See also Geologic storage of CO2; specific energy sources in biochemical conversion of fuel, 220, 224-225, 236, 237-238 capture-ready plants, 3, 39, 51, 230, 366-369

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation chemical looping, 364, 365, 421, 430, 431 CO2 compression, 69-70, 105, 106 n.13, 224, 226, 227, 363, 424-425, 431, 434, 435 CO2 separation, 267, 363, 364-365, 397, 422, 423, 430-431, 434 co-capture of CO2 and other pollutants, 364, 365, 424 costs, 52, 67, 91, 212, 227-230, 360, 364, 368, 369-370, 434-435 and costs of electricity, 16, 425 demonstration of commercial viability, 5, 6, 39, 51-52, 65, 66, 68, 70, 73, 74, 91, 92, 107, 108-109, 212, 225, 227, 228, 230, 232-233, 250-251, 361, 360, 365, 378, 382-383, 397, 398, 431, 432 energy requirements, 367 environmental issues, 406-407 findings, 5, 39, 231-233 and greenhouse gas emissions, 69, 72, 300 importance, 30, 92, 300 industrial sector, 183 infrastructure, 339 NCGG plants, 365 nontechnical issues, 439-441 oxygen-blown gasification, 288-289, 386, 419, 421 oxygen production, 423-424 parallel programs, 225 partial capture, 368-369 pipelines for CO2, 60, 109, 339, 368, 377 n.24, 382, 396, 397, 402, 406-407, 419, 420-421, 435, 439 policy environment, 230, 251, 368, 382 R&D, 107-108, 364-365, 431-432 retrofitting plants for, 3, 5, 51, 53-54, 69-70, 72, 104, 105, 367, 369, 381-382, 383, 384, 392, 395 safety issues, 16, 212, 406-407, 436 siting, 439-440 status, 16, 39 strategies, 74, 421-426 thermochemical conversion of biofuels and, 74, 91-92, 94, 226, 227, 228, 229-230, 231-233, 250-251 Carbon controls, 78, 38 n.1, 189, 244, 393-394, 406. See also Cap and trade; Carbon price Carbon dioxide emissions. See also Carbon capture and storage; Geologic storage of CO2; Greenhouse gas emissions; individual energy sources and sectors alternative transportation fuels, 62, 64, 66 annual U.S. emissions, 68 biochemical conversion processes, 234 cap and trade programs, 38 n.1, 189, 393-394, 406 carbon prices, 28, 38 n.1, 52, 93, 234, 237, 238, 239-240, 244, 252, 371, 406 by energy source, 72 negative, 69, 71, 72, 91, 227, 230, 232, 237, 238, 362, 389, 391, 395 policies and regulations, 33, 52, 252, 361 timeframe for reducing, 68, 71 trends, 11 Carbon dioxide feedstock, 75 Carbon dioxide injection for enhanced oil recovery, 91, 224, 227, 338-340, 341, 342, 343, 396, 397, 398, 401, 402, 407, 424, 435-437 Carbon price/taxes, 28, 38 n.1, 52, 93, 105, 234, 237, 238, 239-240, 244, 252, 371, 378, 390, 402, 406 Carter administration, 26, 458 n.34 Cellulosic ethanol barriers to deployment, 250, 251 capacity build, 244-245 carbon capture and storage, 5, 65, 66, 224-225, 236, 237-238 commercial development, 221-222, 224, 251 conversion technologies, 3, 67, 89, 90-91, 93, 221-225, 234, 235-236, 237, 244-245, 251 costs, 92-93, 125, 127, 222-223, 224, 237-238, 240, 251 deployment, 92-93, 125, 127, 222, 244-245 economic competitiveness, 66, 67, 92-93 environmental impacts, 248 feedstock, 4, 213-217, 222-223 greenhouse gas emissions, 5, 66, 71-72, 213, 224-225, 236, 238, 239 infrastructure issues, 221, 223-224, 225, 251-252, 254 petroleum replacement potential, 3-4, 63, 66, 90, 91, 221-222 production capacity, 90-91, 244-245 RD&D, 6, 64, 74, 221-222, 224

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation sources, 235, 236 supply potential, 63, 66, 129, 241-242 systems approach, 250 waste-heat and waste-materials as energy sources, 221 Cement industry, 44, 86, 87, 175, 178, 182-183, 186, 402, 423 Cesium, 461, 519, 522, 523, 552 Chemical Engineering Plant Construction Cost Index, 372 Chemical manufacturing, 86, 175, 176, 178, 180, 184, 186, 190, 226, 331 n.2 China, 20, 77 n.19, 135, 175, 319, 504, 505, 509, 572, 605, 630 Chernobyl accident, 446 Chlorofluorocarbons, 11 n.3 Chrysler, 163 Clean Air Act, 26, 78, 384, 405 Clean Air Act Amendments, 189 Clean Air Interstate Rule, 40, 404 n.39 Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee, 404 Clean-Fuel Fleet Program, 261 Clean Water Act, 405, 539 Climate change, 11 n.3, 25 Clinton administration, 26, 458 n.34 Clostridium beijernickii BA101, 253 Coal air-blown PC plants, 106, 121, 124, 126, 128, 228, 361-365, 366, 369-379, 380, 381, 382, 383-385, 387, 388, 389, 395, 406-407, 419, 420, 425, 428, 430, 432 as alternative fuel source, 74, see also Coal-and-biomass-to-liquid; Coal-to-liquid attributes, 332 carbon capture and storage, 3, 39, 51, 53, 58, 68, 69-70, 366-379, 421-426, 430-441 CO2 emissions, 16, 24, 68, 69-70, 356, 360 co-fed biomass and, 91, 235, 237-238, 242, 245-246 consumption, 14, 17, 18, 21, 22, 36, 218, 332, 336 costs, 16, 52, 57, 58, 219, 420-421 electricity generation, 3, 13, 14, 16, 17, 23, 24, 36, 49, 51, 53, 57, 58, 68, 69, 71, 74, 189, 218, 331, 358, 360, 366-379, 381-385, 419-430 environmental impacts, 16, 52, 92, 219, 249, 408 findings, 3, 219 future contributions, 381-385 industry use, 14, 17, 24, 176, 180, 182 infrastructure constraints, 13, 16, 23, 218 integrated gasification and combined cycle (IGCC) plants, 70, 74, 104, 106, 121, 124, 126, 128, 228, 361, 363-364, 365, 367, 369-373, 376, 377-378, 380, 381, 382, 383, 384, 385, 386, 387, 388, 389-390, 395, 406, 410, 419, 421, 425, 426, 428, 431, 432 liquefaction, 91, 211-212, 220-221, 226, 227, 230-232, 261, 335; see also Coal-to-biomass-to-liquid fuels; Coal-to-liquid fuels locations of power plants, 398 mining, 16, 60, 218, 219, 249, 355, 408 new plants with CCS, 53, 381-385 oxyfuel plants, 70, 74, 104, 364, 365, 367, 395, 419, 423-424 oxygen-blown gasification, 288-289, 386, 419, 421 pollution control, 189 prices, 16, 25, 59, 235, 355, 358 production (domestic), 66, 336, 355 pulverized coal (PC) plants, 106, 121, 124, 126, 128, 228, 361-365, 366, 367, 369-379, 380, 381, 382, 383-385, 387, 388, 389, 395, 406-407, 419, 420, 425, 428, 430, 432 RD&D, 6, 64, 74, 221-222, 224, 430-441 reserves and resources, 16, 89, 92, 218-219, 336, 355-356, 357, 358 retirement of plants, 69, 105, 381, 382, 383, 394-395, 419, 426, 427, 428-429 retrofitted/repowered plants with CCS, 53, 69-70, 71, 77 safety management, 408 supercritical PC, 105, 361, 362, 367, 373, 419 supply curves, 234 supply of electricity, 36, 49 T&D system, 16 timeframe for deployment of clean technology, 430-441 ultrasupercritical PC, 70, 74, 104-105, 128, 362, 363, 367, 419, 430-431 Coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuels capacity build, 245-247 carbon capture and storage, 4, 65, 66, 73, 91-92, 94, 230, 239 commercial development, 227, 230

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation conversion technologies, 3-4, 74, 91-92, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 235, 237-238, 242, 245-246, 247-248, 249 costs, 67, 91, 92-93, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 240 demonstrations, 66, 227 deployment, 93-94, 245-247 environmental impacts, 4, 92, 249 feedstock requirements, 66, 92, 246 findings, 246-248 greenhouse gas emissions, 4, 66, 71-72, 91-92, 227, 232, 239 petroleum replacement potential, 4, 65, 66 production capacity, 5, 91, 92 siting of plants, 92, 247-248 supply, 32, 37, 63-64, 65, 211 Coal-to-liquid fuels capacity build, 245 carbon capture and storage, 64, 65, 72, 73, 94, 212, 230, 239 competitiveness, 236-237 costs, 66, 67, 92-93, 228-231, 236-237, 240 direct liquefaction, 220, 230-231 environmental impacts, 249 feedstock supply, 218-219 greenhouse gas emissions, 64, 72, 211-212, 227, 239, 245 supply, 37, 63-64, 65, 245 thermochemical conversion, 220, 227, 228-229, 230-231 Coastal Zone Management Act, 305 Combined-heat-and-power systems (cogeneration), 44, 51, 86, 87, 88, 144, 176, 177, 178, 179, 181, 183, 186, 187, 190, 196, 198, 452 Commercial buildings. See also Lighting barriers to technology investments, 152, 153 combined heat and power systems, 144 consumption of energy, 17, 22, 36-37, 138, 141-142 cooling and heating systems, 193 electricity, 140, 147 energy efficiency savings, 40-41, 47-49, 140, 144, 147, 148 energy intensity, 141-142 energy management and control systems, 83-84, 142 lease structures, 153 low-energy buildings, 84, 144, 152 natural gas consumption, 140, 148 price of energy, 149 solar voltaic systems, 144 whole-building approach, 144 Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, 405 Concentrating solar power backup capability, 284 cooling systems, 84, 150 costs, 58, 285, 293, 294-295 dish-Stirling engine systems, 97, 284, 285 electricity generating capacity, 96, 272, 276-277 employment, 304 greenhouse gas emissions, 69 high-temperature chemical processing, 97, 101, 285 molten salt receivers, 285 non-electricity applications, 284, 285 optical materials, 97, 285 parabolic troughs, 97, 284, 285 power towers, 97, 284-285 resource base, 276-277 storage, 276, 284 technology description, 97, 284-285 Connecticut, 196, 481 n.82 Conoco Phillips, 261 Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), 89, 214, 215, 218, 234 Conservation supply curves, 40, 82, 83, 140, 144, 145-149 Consumer behavior economic factors, 136-137, 154, 156, 172, 173 education, training, and technical assistance, 196-197, 200, 201 energy-efficient technologies, 49, 50, 79, 136-137, 154, 156, 172, 192 information/awareness factors, 136, 137, 154, 155 policies targeting, 196-197, 200, 201 preferences, 136, 137, 156, 192 risk aversion, 136, 192, 260 and transportation energy efficiency, 136, 156, 172 Consumption. See Energy consumption Context for the report aspects not assessed, 31-33 challenges to sustainable transformation, 25-27 charge to the committee, 10, 30-33, 36

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation cost estimates, 32-33 current U.S. energy system, 11-25 panel reports, 31 strategy of the committee, 30-33 technology role, 27-30 timeframes, 30 Cooling systems, 14, 41, 47, 83, 145, 149, 150, 193. See also Heating and cooling systems Corn ethanol biochemical conversion, 220-221, 234 n.6, 241-242 CO2 emissions, 72, 236, 238, 239 consumption, 17, 213 costs, 67, 234-236, 237, 240 grain supply, 233 plant build rates, 90-91, 127 price of corn, 235 production capacity, 90-91, 129, 245 social and environmental concerns, 63, 89, 213 supply, 233, 241-242, 243, 331 sustainability, 89, 220-221 Cost-effectiveness of energy-efficiency technologies, 2, 40-41, 49, 82, 148, 154, 155, 181 Costs. See also specific sectors, resources, and technologies before-tax discount rate, 126-127 comparison of power plant capital costs, 374-376 conditional assumptions, 32-33 of conserved energy, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 145, 146-148, 149 debt/equity, 126-127 drivers of, 292-293, 379 externalities, 14 n.7, 29, 252, 299 feedstock and food costs, 121, 124-125 financing period, 122, 126-127 levelized cost of electricity, 55-60, 293-297, 369-379, 380, 381, 390 life-cycle, 50, 56, 136 limitations, 121, 124-125 methodologies for estimating, 32-33, 55-56, 120-131 overnight costs, 122, 126-127 plant life, 121, 126-127 plant maturity, 121, 124-125 plant size, 121, 124-125 projections for evolutionary nuclear plants, 526-532 reference scenario, 120 simultaneous expansion and modernization of T&D system, 61 site-dependent impacts, 57 source of, 120-121 source of supply estimates, 122, 126-127 uncertainties in estimates, 56, 59 underlying assumptions, 32 Council on Environmental Quality, 403 n.35 Critical technologies, 30 D Delivered electricity, 42, 43 Demand. See Energy demand; Electricity demand Demand-side management, 88 smart meters, 9 n.1, 45, 60, 118, 153, 292, 578, 579, 580, 589, 591, 598, 603, 605-606, 632 state/utility policies, 196, 199-200 Demonstrations. See Research, development, and demonstrations Denmark, 138, 140 Deployment of new technologies, general. See also specific technologies and energy sources accelerated, 6, 35, 37-38, 39, 76-79 barriers to, 60, 76-79, 87-88, 93-94, 136-137, 152-154, 155, 172-173, 185-189, 191-192, 202, 250-252, 447, 477-482, 494-495, 497-498 consumer resistance to, 35, 50 coupling energy-supply and supporting technologies, 78 “crash” effort, 35 economic effects on end-users, 35, 50 industrial capacity and personnel for, 77-78 options, 38-39 parallel tracks, 30, 57, 174, 225, 400, 605 portfolio approach, 68 readiness for, 38, 39 siting concerns, 57, 60 supply factors, 77-78 timeframes for, 35 turnover rate of infrastructure and, 77 Diesel fuel biodiesel, 37, 62 n.17, 75, 89, 213, 252-253

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation components from biomass, 255 freight transport, 171 synthetic (GTL), 223, 258, 261, 263 supply, 37 thermal efficiency, 262 thermochemical conversion, 228 Dimethyl ether, 94, 258, 262-263 Dimethyl furan, 254 Duke Energy, 187, 376 DuPont, 254 E EaglePicher, 163 Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study/Joint Coordinated System Planning Study, 100, 314-315 Economic growth, 25 Economic recession, xii, 15, 77, 95, 222, 272, 526 Electric motors, 145, 159, 162, 180, 184, 193, 263 Electric Power Research Institute, 293, 382, 420, 527 n.24, 531, 550 n.62, 592, 632 Electricity consumption energy efficiency savings, 40-41, 140, 146-147, 150, 154 per capita, 199 projected, 146 by sector, 41, 42, 47, 139, 140, 141, 146-147, 155, 180, 181, 184 time-of-use pricing programs, 186 Electricity demand building sector, 155 charges and demand-response incentives, 189 electrified vehicle fleet and, 4, 44-45, 155, 366 energy-efficiency technologies and, 32, 44-45, 155, 189 price of energy and, 186, 199 T&D system and, 27 Electricity generation. See also Nuclear energy age of baseload plants, 23 air-blown PC plants, 106, 121, 124, 126, 128, 228, 361-365, 366, 369-379, 380, 381, 382, 383-385, 387, 388, 389, 395, 406-407, 419, 420, 425, 428, 430, 432 baseload, 57, 58-59, 60 biomass, 51, 57, 58 capacity increases, 154-155 carbon capture and storage, 78, 107-108, 360-361, 362-369, 421-426, 430-441 challenges, 359-361 CO2 emissions, 333, 358-359, 360, 362-365, 366, 428-429 coal-fired plants, 3, 13, 14, 16, 17, 23, 24, 36, 49, 51-52, 53, 57, 58, 59, 68, 69, 71, 74, 104-105, 189, 218, 331, 358, 359, 360, 365-369, 381-385, 395, 419-430 combined-heat and power plants, 51 competitiveness of technologies, 51, 59 consumption of liquid fuels, 37 costs, 55-60, 105-107, 360, 366, 369-379, 380, 395, 420-421, 428 findings, 394-396 fossil fuel, 51, 58, 104-107, 358-396 fuel costs, 57, 58-59, 365-366 health concerns, 60 integrated gasification and combined cycle (IGCC) plants, 70, 74, 104, 106, 121, 124, 126, 128, 228, 361, 363-364, 365, 367, 369-373, 376, 377-378, 380, 381, 382, 383, 384, 385, 386, 387, 388, 389-390, 395, 406, 410, 419, 421, 425, 426, 428, 431, 432 intermittent, 57, 58-59 investment barriers, 359-361, 366 mix of coal, natural gas, and biomass plants, 391-394, 395, 425-426 natural gas, 3, 13, 14, 15, 16, 23, 24, 36, 51, 55, 57-58, 59, 68-69, 105-106, 259, 273, 314, 358, 360, 365-366, 425-426 NGCC plants, 23, 57-59, 69, 70, 105-106, 126, 128, 274, 361, 365, 366, 369-373, 377-378, 378, 380, 385, 387, 388, 389, 390, 393, 394, 426 new plants, 42, 45, 105, 359-360, 394-395, 427-428 oxyfuel plants, 70, 74, 104, 364, 365, 367, 395, 419, 423-424 PC/IGCC competition, 361-365 petroleum, 51, 359, 360, 365-366 portfolio approach, 4-5, 51, 107-108, 396 projections, 358

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation RD&D, 395-396 renewable sources, 13, 51, 52, 57, 58, 59, 359 retail price of electricity, 47-48, 49, 56, 100, 188, 529 siting of facilities, 57, 60 supply curves, 391-394, 426-430 supply from new technologies or technology mixes, 49, 51-60 from waste heat and materials, 221, 235 water use, 60, 409-410 wholesale power markets, 56-57, 59 Electricity sector barriers to improvement, 77 demand side technologies, 45, 60 energy efficiency improvements, 40-41 greenhouse gas emissions, 4, 5, 16, 24, 68-69, 70, 73 Electricity supply curves, 140 Electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) systems AC and DC lines and cables, 580-581 accommodating all generation and storage options, 51, 60, 61, 576, 614-615 addressing problems, 574-575 advanced equipment and components, 116, 579-584, 604 barriers to deployment, 78, 117-118, 599-602, 606-607 benefits of modernization, 3, 60-61, 118, 594-599 cascading failures and blackouts, 60 characteristics of a modern grid, 611 communications system, 116-117, 586-587, 631-632 control technologies, 587-588 costs of connecting, 293 n.5, 296-297, 298, 317 costs of modernization, 58-59, 61, 117, 592-594, 606, 632-636 cultural and communication barriers, 601-602, 607 current system, 564-569, 604 custom power, 116, 578, 580, 583, 603, 622-623 customer motivation and involvement, 61, 617 decision-support tools, 117, 579, 589, 590, 591, 599, 603-604, 605, 613, 618, 633 deployment of a modern system, 602-604, 605-606 distribution system, 61, 605-606, 611 economic benefits, 115, 595-596 electrified vehicle fleet and, 4, 597-598 emergency response capability, 611 environmental benefits, 116, 596-599 FACTS technology, 116, 578, 579-580, 583, 588, 602-603, 617, 621-622 findings, 3, 60-61, 604-607 grid visualization, 117, 589, 590, 591, 613, 631 HVDC, 571, 572, 579, 580-581, 598, 603, 615, 616, 619, 623-624 integrating intermittent/renewable resources integrated in, xiii, 3, 27, 34, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 98-99, 116, 118, 133, 290, 291, 292, 296-297, 298, 305-307, 308, 314-315, 316, 322, 563, 576, 581-582, 584, 597, 604, 607, 614-615, 620, 624, 625 intelligent control and communications, 291, 292, 297, 322-323, 576-577, 586-588, 604, 611 investment barriers, 78, 600, 606 market accommodations, 61 modern system characteristics, 575-579 Northeast blackout of 2003, 573 operations planning and design, 590-591, 613-614 optimization and efficiency, 577, 613, 619-620 personnel and equipment shortages, 605 potential for deployment, 583-584, 588-589, 591 power electronics, 579-580 power quality, 577, 619 problems, 13, 78, 569-574 public safety benefits, 599 R&D, 607-608 regional ownership and regulation, 78, 152-153 regulatory and legislative barriers, 78, 152-153, 600-601, 606-607 reliability measures, 61, 611, 612 restoration after an emergency, 613 security, 115, 577, 579, 582, 587, 594-595, 596, 600, 601, 604, 618 self-healing, 576, 577, 579-580, 587, 616-617, 618, 621 sensing and measurements, 116-117, 584-585, 604, 628-630 smart meters, 9 n.1, 45, 60, 118, 292, 578, 579, 580, 589, 591, 598, 603, 605-606, 632 storage, 6, 51, 61, 78, 291, 307, 309, 581-583, 584, 601, 616, 624-626, 627, 634 system operations, 589-590, 591, 613

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation systems operator training, 590 technical barriers, 600, 606 technologies, 116-117, 578-592, 604-605 terrorist threats, 618 transformers, 193, 375, 564 n.1, 571, 583, 598-599, 618, 620, 621, 622, 626-628, 633 transmission system, 60, 61, 314-315, 317, 564, 605, 606 wholesale power markets, 576, 615-616 Electronics. See Appliances and electronics Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, 273 Endangered Species Act, 40, 405 Energy conservation, xiii, 33, 40 n.3, 61, 135 n.1, 145 n.7 Energy consumption. See also Electricity consumption; specific fuels air transportation, 157, 167 buildings sector, 2, 14, 83, 137, 139, 141-142 business-as-usual reference case, 2, 21, 36-37 comparison of sectors, 17, 22, 36-37 current, 2, 17, 135 factors affecting, 142 energy efficiency technologies and, 2, 11-12, 137-138 by fuel source, 17, 18, 21, 22, 36-37, 139, 332 historical, 19, 21, 137-138 industry, 14, 15, 17, 22, 36-37, 44, 136-137, 138, 139, 175-176, 180-183, 186 international comparison, 11-12, 20, 135, 138, 140 per capita, 19, 20, 138, 140 per dollar of GDP, 19, 20, 137-138, 140 projected, 2, 19, 21, 36-37 total, 22 Energy costs. See Costs Energy demand. See also Electricity demand drivers of, 138 economic conditions and, 15, 25 impacts of technology development, 32 potential energy sources relative to, 13 projected, 41, 42 Energy-efficient technologies. See also Appliances; Buildings; Industrial; Light-duty vehicles; Lighting; Transportation advanced, 83-84, 149-152, 155 availability, 82, 138-139, 140, 155, 191 barriers to deployment, 6, 76-77, 78, 87-88, 136-137, 152-154, 155, 172-173, 185-189, 191-192, 202 baseline/reference cases, 83, 177 capital investment needs, 83, 148 combined heat and power production, 44, 51, 86, 87, 88, 144, 176, 177, 178, 179, 181, 183, 186, 187, 190, 196, 198, 452 conservation distinguished from, 135 n.1, 145 n.7 conservation supply curves, 40, 82, 83, 140, 144, 145-149 consumer behavior, 49, 50, 79, 136-137, 154, 156, 172, 192 cost of conserved energy, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 145, 146-148, 149 cost-effectiveness, 2, 40-41, 49, 82, 148, 154, 155, 181 and demand for electricity, 32, 44-45, 155, 189 drivers of, 84, 88, 154, 155, 175, 189-190 dynamic nature of, 135, 149, 201-202 economic disincentives, 152-153 electricity generation capacity, 154-155 electricity savings, 40-41, 140, 146-147, 150, 154 end-use and technology approach, 145 findings, 1-2, 3, 4, 40-49, 50, 154-155, 173-174, 190-191, 202 informational and education needs, 87-88, 153, 187-188, 191 infrastructure considerations, 86, 88, 156-157, 160, 171, 174 integrated approaches, 84, 85, 143-144, 145, 149-152, 155, 200 international comparisons, 157, 170, 175, 176, 190 limitations of studies, 143, 155 natural gas savings, 43, 45 n.8, 48-49, 139, 140 146-147, 148, 154 panel report, 31, 81 payback period, 148, 153, 186 potential savings in energy, 1-2, 25, 40-49, 50, 62, 82, 83, 84, 88, 135, 137-138, 140-141, 143-145, 154, 155, 156, 157-169, 173, 192-198, 202 price of energy and, 47-48, 82, 83, 84, 88, 148, 149, 152, 156, 157, 165, 176, 186, 188, 189, 192, 197

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 222, 278, 470 Mercury, 149, 152, 249, 369, 408, 425, 482, 533, 596-597 Metabolic and bioprocess engineering, 256, 257-258 Methane coal-bed, 103, 346, 347, 398, 402, 433, 435, 438 emissions, 11, 19, 259, 359, 368, 671 greenhouse forcing potential, 258, 260 hydrates, 75, 94, 258, 261, 346-347, 416-418 landfill gas power plants, 288 natural gas vehicles, 258 Methanol, 94 Methanol-to-gasoline technology, 67, 72, 93, 220, 226-227, 228, 229, 235, 236-237, 238, 239, 240, 252, 258-259, 262, 263 Micro-grids, 617 Micro-manufacturing, 179 MicroSun, 163 Micro-turbines, 598, 621 Microwave technologies, 179, 190, 291, 628-829 Minnesota, 196, 404 n.39, 481 Mobius Power, 163 Molecular biology, 74 Municipal solid waste, 89, 97, 213-214, 217, 235, 235, 272, 273, 287 N Nanotechnology and nanomaterials, 179, 184, 185, 190, 283, 284, 291, 454, 513, 581 Naphtha, 226, 228, 261 National Academies, 404 n.38 National Energy Technology Laboratory, 362 n.16, 368 n.19, 370 National Environmental Policy Act, 26, 352, 405 National Mining Association, 404 n.37 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 403 n.35 National Petroleum Council, 341-342, 343, 344 n.8, 345, 349, 354, 404 n.36 National Petroleum Reserve, 351, 355 National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 310, 313 National Science Foundation, 76 Natural gas. See also Liquefied natural gas; Methane access issue, 12, 71, 103, 348, 350-355 age of power plants, 23 attributes, 332 buildings sector, 14, 15, 17, 24, 37, 43, 48-49, 139, 146-147, 155, 259, 331 carbon capture and storage, 58, 69, 70, 71, 379-380, 422-423 CO2 emissions, 3, 16, 24, 68, 69, 70, 71, 102, 259-260, 360 combined cycle (NGCC) plants, 23, 57-59, 69, 70, 105-106, 126, 128, 274, 361, 365, 366, 369-373, 377-378, 378, 380, 385, 387, 388, 389, 390, 393, 394, 426 combustion turbine, 273 competitiveness, 105-106, 273, 314, 379-380, 406 compressed, 94, 258, 259-261 constraints on production, 338 consumption, 17, 18, 21, 22, 37, 139, 146-147, 259, 332-333, 335, 351 costs, 48-49, 273, 360 economic importance, 15 electricity generation, 3, 13, 14, 15, 16, 23, 24, 36, 51, 55, 57-58, 59, 68-69, 105-106, 259, 273, 314, 358, 365-366, 425-426 energy efficiency savings, 43, 45 n.8, 48-49, 139, 140, 146-147, 148, 154 environmental impacts, 355 exploration and production technology, 336, 343, 347-348 feedstock for fuel, 94, 258, 261 findings, 3 industrial use, 14, 15, 17, 24, 37, 139, 176, 180, 183, 184, 259 import dependence (potential), 3, 15, 16, 25, 37, 71, 103, 259, 314, 336, 350, 358 methane emissions, 259 new plants, 70 offshore, 346, 347, 348, 351-352, 353 pipelines, 109, 332, 334, 406, 407, 409 potential, 16 prices, 3, 15, 25, 48, 49, 57-58, 59, 71, 103, 188, 260, 261, 348, 349, 350, 360, 372 production (domestic), 15, 16, 37, 259, 335, 346-350, 351, 357

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation reserves and resources, 2, 3, 15, 37, 102-103, 149, 259, 332, 335, 336, 346-350, 351-355, 357, 416-418 retrofitted plants with CCS, 70, 71 safety management, 260, 409, 418 shales, 15, 103, 105-106, 342, 343, 346, 347-348, 349, 350, 355, 358, 385, 405, 426 single-cycle plants, 23 “stranded,” 261 supply and demand, 103, 106, 354-355, 358, 361, 379-380, 426 tight gas sands, 15, 103, 346, 347 transportation fuel, 37, 139, 259-260 Natural Resources Defense Council, 404 n.7 NEC, 163 New Source Performance Standards, 78, 189, 384 New York, energy efficiency programs, 193, 198, 199, 200 New Zealand, 226 Nickel cadmium batteries, 627 Nickel metal hydride batteries, 625, 627 Nigeria, 261 Nissan, 163 Nitrogen oxide emissions, 11 n.3, 19, 159, 189, 248, 249, 260, 262-263, 288, 300 n.7, 301, 302, 313, 333, 359, 363-364, 421 Nixon administration, 26, 458 n.34 Norway, 107, 437, 524 Nuclear energy accidents, 446, 453, 480, 489-491, 503, 553-555, 556-557 aging/retirement of plants, 13, 23, 53-54, 112, 447, 448, 472, 473, 474 n.70, 475, 481, 483, 497 barriers to deployment, 113-114, 447, 477-482, 494-495, 497-498 capacity factor, 54, 445, 448, 528 cogeneration, 452 consumption, 17, 18, 21, 22, 332 costs, 57, 58, 113, 198, 447, 463-471, 496, 526-532 demonstration needs and constraints, 55 downtime decreases, 110, 449, 451 economic barriers, 70-71, 113, 477-478, 497 electricity costs, 2, 464-470 environmental impacts, 114-115, 482-489 federal incentives, 39 n.2, 55, 58, 59, 447, 468-469, 532 n. 31 findings, 2, 3, 39, 70-71, 494-499 fossil fuel power plants compared, 467 greenhouse gas emissions, 16, 69, 70-71, 445, 482-484, 498, 533-536 improvements to existing plants, 52-53, 110, 448-451, 463-464, 474-475, 497 international interest, 446-447 new plants, 3, 51, 53, 445, 467 operating license extensions, 53-55, 110, 112, 450-451, 463-464, 473, 476, 497, 515, 546, 548 personnel and parts shortages, 481-482, 498 potential for deployment, 3, 13, 70-71, 112-113, 471-477 power uprates, 52-53, 110, 449-450, 474-475, 497 proliferation risk, 111, 458-459, 460, 462, 489, 491-492, 496, 499, 504, 518, 519, 522, 524 public concerns, 113-114, 447, 479-481, 497-498 refueling outages, 110, 451 regulatory and legislative issues, 113, 478-479, 498 R&D, 451, 499 safety and security, 115, 480, 489-492 share of electricity generation, 447-448 supply of electricity, 3, 14, 49, 51, 52-55, 114, 197, 447, 496-497 technologies, 110-112, 448-463; see also Nuclear reactors terrorist attacks, 489-491 water use, 485-486, 539-541 Nuclear Energy Advisory Committee, 456 n.27 Nuclear fuel cycle. See also Uranium alternative, 111, 113, 456-462, 470-471, 491, 499, 524-525, 551 breeding, 111, 456, 458, 507, 508, 510, 517, 518, 521-522, 523 n.19, 524 burning, 456, 457, 458, 459 n.41, 460-461, 462, 495, 496, 508, 510-511, 517, 518-519, 520, 521-522, 525 closed, 111, 410, 458-459, 461, 462, 471, 485-486, 510, 517-521, 523-525, 539, 540 costs, 470-471 defined, 458 n.32 disposal of spent fuel, 60, 486-489, 496 environmental impacts, 486-489, 536-539 full recycle, 461, 496, 519, 521

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation high burn-up fuel, 455, 487, 499, 514, 551 inert matrix fuel (IMF), 462, 519-520, 521, 525 limited recycle, 458 n.14, 461, 462, 470-471, 519, 520, 521, 525 mining and milling impacts, 60, 301, 484-485 mixed-oxide fuel (MOX), 462, 495, 470, 471, 519, 520, 521 once-through, 458, 459 n.40, 462, 464 n.52, 470, 471, 485, 491, 492, 499, 517, 520, 524, 525, 534 n.35, 539, 540, 542 R&D opportunities, 455, 460-461, 524-525 recycling used fuel, 458, 459, 460, 461, 462, 470-471, 491, 495-496, 517, 519, 520, 521-523, 525, 539 separations technologies, 111, 459, 460, 462, 470, 471, 491, 495, 520, 522, 531-523 simulation and modeling, 525 thorium, 506, 523-524 transuranic targets, 458 n.23, 462, 521 world capasity, 446-447 Nuclear fusion, 29, 463, 495 Nuclear reactors advanced boiling-water reactor, 453, 454 n.20, 474, 504, 505-506 advanced pressurized water, 453-454, 474, 504, 505, 506 advanced simulation codes, 515-516, 525 alternative designs, 111, 452-453, 455-457, 470-471, 503, 504-508, 509-510, 512, 524-525 AP1000, 453, 454 boiling-water, 452, 453, 472-473, 475, 505 coolants and cooling systems, 452, 453, 454, 485-486, 489-490, 499, 503, 506, 508, 512-513, 514, 539-540, 553, 554, 556 costs, 70-71 degradation phenomena, 450, 514-515 demonstration of commercial viability, 5, 6, 68, 70-71 design certification, 453, 454, 478, 479, 505, 506, 507, 509-510, 511 digital instrumentation and control, 455, 515 economic simplified boiling-water reactor (ESBWR), 453, 474 European pressurized water, 503, 504 evolutionary designs, 2, 5, 6, 39, 49, 68, 70-71, 110, 112, 113, 115, 124, 446-447, 448, 452, 453, 455, 463, 464-470, 472 n.68, 473, 486, 490, 494, 503-506, 509, 512, 513, 526-532, 540 fast, 111, 453, 456, 457, 461, 462, 470, 471, 506-507, 508, 521, 525 fuel rods, 454, 455 gas-cooled, 455 n.24, 504 n.5, 507, 508, 509, 511 heat transfer materials, 454, 499, 513-514 light water, 452, 453, 455, 456, 457, 459, 461, 462, 467, 470, 472, 503, 504, 509, 511, 512, 513, 514, 518, 519-521, 522, 524, 525, 544 neutron moderator, 452, 453 pressurized water, 452, 453, 503, 504, 473, 475, 505, 549 R&D opportunities, 6, 454-455, 457, 512-516 readiness for deployment, 39 small modular reactors, 456, 506-507, 509-510 sodium-cooled, 455 n.24, 457 n.30, 470, 504 n.5, 506 n.7, 507, 508, 509, 510, 511, 513 technologies, 451-457 thermal, 452, 453, 456, 458 n.33, 462, 486, 506-507, 508, 519, 521 U.S. evolutionary power, 453, 454, 474, 503, 504, 505 very-high-temperature, 456, 506-507, 508, 511-512 Nuclear waste management, 60 burning fuel cycles and, 518-519 costs, 528, 551 decommissioning wastes, 486-487, 528, 542, 543, 548, 550-551 environmental impacts, 486-489 final disposal, 480-481, 545-547 high-level wastes, 115, 436, 458 n.34, 486, 487-488, 496, 518, 545-547, 552 interim storage, 115, 488-489, 541, 543, 549, 547-548 low-level wastes, 461, 520, 543, 548-550 other operating wastes, 543, 548-550 public concerns, 447, 480-481, 498 used fuel disposal, 455, 542-544 Yucca Mountain high-level-waste storage, 115, 436, 458 n.34, 486, 487-488, 496, 545-547, 552 NuScale, Inc., 456, 506, 509

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation O Obama administration, 27, 41 n.4, 45 n.7, 62, 85 n.7, 157 n.18, 166 n.22, 193 n.24, 457 n.31, 458, 488, 492, 496, 510, 511, 545 Oil. See also Gasoline; Petroleum access issue, 12, 344, 345, 350-355 Alaska production, 343, 351, 353 Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 344, 345, 351, 354, 355 carbon capture and storage, 341, 402 CO2 emissions, 341, 342 CO2 enhanced oil recovery, 91, 224, 227, 338-340, 341, 342, 343, 396, 397, 398, 401, 402, 407, 424, 435-437 constraints on production, 338, 341-343 costs, 152, 338, 339, 341 consumption, 335, 351 crisis, 137 demand, 15 environmental impacts/management, 341, 342, 355, 408-409 exploration and production technology, 336, 337, 343 heavy oil, 171, 337, 339, 340, 342 import dependence, 333, 336 in situ retorting, 340-341 light oil, 261, 338-340, 402 liquid fuel consumption, 62-65, 171 offshore resources, 339, 343, 344, 345, 347, 349, 350, 351, 352-353, 354, 355 political importance, 14-15 prices, xii, 15, 67, 152, 211, 342, 344, 345, 354-355, 360 production (domestic), 14 n.8, 211, 335, 341-342, 344-346, 351, 356-357 projections, 344-346 reserves and resources, 13, 102, 335, 336, 338-346, 350-355, 415-416 residual zone EOR, 339, 340 shales, 75, 102, 108, 109, 339, 340-341, 342, 357, 406, 408-409 steam injection, 340 supply and demand, 354-355, 357-358 tar sands, 108, 109, 339, 340, 341, 342, 357, 406, 408-409 timeframe for recovery, 339 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 336, 354 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, 405 P Pakistan, 452 Panasonic/Sanyo, 163 Particulate emissions, 159, 249, 263, 288, 322, 333, 404, 405, 408, 541 Passenger transportation air, 86 n.8, 167, 170 consumption of energy, 156 mass transit, 156, 260-261 systemic improvements, 171-172 vehicular, see Light-duty vehicles Petroleum. See also Fossil fuels; Oil attributes, 332 buildings sector, 17, 24, 139 CO2 emissions, 16, 24, 72, 156 consumption, 17, 18, 21, 22, 24, 62, 89, 102, 139, 137, 138, 155-157, 243, 332 demand, 15, 332-333 dependence, xi, 25, 63, 67, 89 economic importance, 14 electricity generation, 36, 360 energy efficiency improvements and, 67 import dependence, 3, 14, 16, 17, 24, 25, 26, 62, 84, 89, 93, 139, 156, 160, 180, 211, 212, 243 industrial sector, 17, 24, 139, 175, 176, 180 prices, 25, 156 production rates (domestic), 3, 14, 62-63, 102 refining, 86, 87, 175, 176, 178, 180, 182, 186, 188, 254-255, 334, 403, 423, 512 replacement or reduction, 3, 14, 62-67, 73, 160, 212, 245, 265-266 resources and reserves, 332 transportation fuel, 3, 14, 16, 17, 24, 62, 84, 89, 108, 139, 156, 180, 211, 243, 331 Photobioreactors, 253, 258 Photovoltaics industry roadmap, 310, 316 Plutonium, 111, 459, 460, 462, 470, 471, 491, 495, 517, 519, 520, 522, 531-523

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation Policies and programs. See also Legislation; Regulations and standards; individual statutes barriers to adoption of technologies, 6, 76-77, 78, 152, 191-192 California experience, 191, 193, 196, 198, 199-200 carbon controls, 78, 38 n.1, 189, 244, 393-394, 406 combined heat and power systems, 196, 198 consumer education, training, and technical assistance, 196-197, 200, 201 costs of, 45 n.8, 148 energy savings estimates, 88, 192-198 energy efficiency, 82, 86, 88, 148, 152, 154, 172-173, 189, 191-202 ENERGY STAR® program, 88, 142, 150, 151, 154 n.13, 196-197, 198 environmental, 350-355 federal, 192-198 fiscal, 152, 172, 188, 200, 307 incentives and grants, 6, 38 n.1, 200, 201, 264-265, 273 investment impacts, 307 land-use management, 86, 172 lessons learned, 201 New York experience, 193, 198, 199, 200 RD&D, 88, 194-195, 197, 200, 201 revision, 201-202 state/utility, 88, 154, 191, 192, 193, 194, 196, 198, 199-200, 273 tax credits, 38 n.1, 51, 95, 99, 101, 144, 188, 192, 195-196, 273, 274, 298, 299, 307, 308, 317, 447, 468, 530 Population distribution considerations, 142, 171-172, 291, 319, 407, 540, 581, 598, 607 growth, 11-12, 25, 83, 409-410, 540 Potential energy sources defined, 13 Power grid. See Electricity transmission and distribution systems Price of energy and energy-efficient technology adoption, 47-48, 82, 83, 84, 88, 148, 149, 152, 156, 157, 165, 176, 186, 188, 189, 192, 197 environmental and social costs, 152 Primary energy sources, 12, 21, 22, 33 Princeton Environmental Institute, 124, 125, 227-228, 369-370, 374-375, 376, 385, 420 Production of energy, trends, 20. See also individual sources Public engagement, 29-30 Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act, 88, 196, 197, 198 Pulp and paper industry, 43-44, 86, 87, 175, 177, 178, 181 PUREX, 111, 459, 460, 462, 470, 471, 491, 495, 520, 522, 531-523 Q Qatar, 261, 416 R Reagan administration, 26, 458 n.34 Recycling, 86, 179, 186 Regulations and standards. See also Legislation; individual statutes appliance efficiency standards, 88, 154 n.13, 192, 193-194, 197, 198, 200, 201 building energy codes, 38-39 n.1, 40, 50, 88, 146, 152-153, 154, 192, 194, 198, 199, 200, 201, 319 CAFE, 28, 45 n.7, 46, 85, 157, 166-167, 192-193, 197, 198, 267 barriers to technology investments, 152-153, 188-189 energy efficiency, 27, 28, 38-39 n.1, 40, 45, 46, 62, 78-79, 85, 87, 88, 142, 154, 157, 166-167, 188-189, 191, 192-193, 197, 198, 267 environmental, 26-27, 78, 88, 189, 322, 384 performance-oriented, 6, 78, 189, 200, 384 renewables portfolio standards, 28, 39 n.2, 51, 95, 273, 299 utility tariffs and interconnection standards, 152-153 Remanufacturing of used products for resale, 87, 185

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation Renewable energy. See also Biopower; Geothermal; Hydropower; Solar; Wind 20% electricity generation, 13, 95, 98-99, 305-306, 309-316, 317 atmospheric emissions, 300-302, 313 combined energy-waste-and-water plants, 291 competitiveness, 97-98, 289, 290, 299 consumption of energy from, 21, 22, 332 co-siting of different technologies, 98, 290, 306-307, 308-309, 315-316 costs, 33, 51, 99-100, 273, 274, 292-299 deployment barriers, 12, 97-98, 101 deployment scenarios, 309-317 development potential, 97-99, 303-309 electricity generation capacity, 2, 31, 51, 94-96, 271-274, 279-292 electricity generation costs, 293-297 employment, 304 environmental impacts, 101-102, 299-303 findings, 2, 291-292, 297, 299, 302-303, 307-309, 317 greenhouse gas emissions, 16, 101, 300, 302, 313, 317 human and materials resource constraints, 101, 303-304, 308, 323 industry use, 176 integration in T&D systems, xiii, 3, 27, 34, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 98, 99, 101, 116, 118, 133, 290, 291, 292, 296-297, 298, 305-307, 308-309, 314, 316, 322-323, 563, 576, 581-582, 584, 597, 604, 614-615, 620, 624, 625 land-use impacts, 101-102, 300-303, 313 levelizied cost estimates, 293-297 market factors, 307 non-electricity (distributed), 99-100, 318-322 policy setting, 101, 273-274, 279, 302, 307, 317 production constraints, 304-305 R&D, 98, 289-290, 296, 307-308 resource base, 95-96, 275-279 speculative technologies, 291-292 status, 271-274 supply of electricity, 13, 51, 52, 197 technology descriptions, 96-97, 280-289 timeframes for deployment of technologies, 289-292 Renewable Fuel Standard, 245 Research, development, and demonstrations (RD&D) advanced materials, 76 alternative liquid fuels, 74-75, 221, 247, 255, 265, 267 basic research, 75-76 battery technologies, 6, 30, 76, 79, 85, 625-626 biofuels, 74-75, 90, 221-222, 224 biosciences, 74 buildings sector, 150, 197 CCS demonstrations, 5, 6, 39, 51-52, 65, 66, 68, 70, 73, 74, 91, 92, 107, 108-109, 212, 225, 227, 228, 230, 232-233, 250-251, 361, 360, 365, 378, 382-383, 397, 398, 431, 432 cellulosic ethanol demonstrations, 6, 64, 74, 90, 221-222, 224 climate-related, 75 CO2 recycling, 75 coal technologies, 6, 64, 74, 221-222, 224, 430-441 electricity generation, 395-396 energy efficiency, 6, 74, 85, 150, 174, 192, 194-195, 197, 200, 201 evolutionary nuclear reactor demonstrations, 5, 6, 68, 70-71, 74 federal support, 76, 194-195, 296 geoengineering, 75 geothermal power, 75 industry, 182, 190, 195 investments in, 39, 74, 75-76 LDV technologies, 6, 74, 75 national effort, 28 natural gas from hydrates, 75 nuclear fuel cycle, 75 oil shale extraction technologies, 75 opportunities for, 6, 30, 73-76, 79, 85, 625-626 portfolio approach, 5-6, 73, 201, 267, 378-379 radioactive waste management, 75 solar photovoltaics, 75, 76 scale of demonstrations, 28 social science research, 75 urgency of, 5, 30, 71 wind energy, 75 Reserves. See also individual energy sources defined, 13

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation Residential buildings. See also Appliances; Buildings; Lighting consumption of energy, 17, 22, 36-37, 138, 141, 146 electricity, 140 energy efficiency savings, 40-41, 47-49, 140, 144, 147, 150 energy intensity, 141, 175 ENERGY STAR® new homes, 142 heating and cooling, 144 low-energy and zero-net-energy new homes, 84, 144, 151 natural gas, 140, 147 price of energy, 149 rental units, 50, 87, 136-137, 153 solar power at point of use, 59, 83, 151 tax credits, 144 weatherization assistance program, 198 whole-house approach, 144, 151 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, 405 Resources, defined, 13. See also individual energy sources Resources for the Future, 404 n.38 Russia, 261, 452, 457 n.30, 463, 470, 493, 494, 505, 506, 510, 511, 519 n.16, 524, 533, 538 Russian Federation, 415, 416 S Safe Drinking Water Control Act, 407 Sasol, 226, 261 Saudi Arabia, 345 Secondary energy source. See Electricity generation Sensor development, 87, 176, 180, 183, 185, 190 Separation processes and technologies biofuel production, 224, 256, 258 CO2 separation, 267, 364-365, 378, 397, 422, 423-425, 430-431, 434 cryogenic, 423, 424, 431 electrochemical, 458-459, 517, 519, 520, 522-523 industry energy efficiency measures, 87, 111, 176, 180, 181, 184, 188, 190 PUREX, 111, 456, 459, 460, 462, 470, 471, 491, 495, 520, 522, 531-523 spent nuclear fuel processing, 111, 459, 460, 462, 470, 471, 491, 495, 496, 520, 521-523, 524-525, 552 UREX+, 459, 520, 522, 523, 552 Shell, 261 Silicon, 96, 281, 283, 284, 303-304, 305 SiLyte, 163 Smart meters, 9 n.1, 45, 60, 118, 292, 578, 579, 580, 589, 591, 598, 603, 605-606, 632 Sodium-sulfur batteries, 582, 625, 627 Solar America Initiative, 310, 316 Solar Energy Industry Association, 296 Solar power, general consumption, by sector, 17 costs, 57, 58, 96 growth, 95, 272 resource base, 96, 276-278, 279 satellites collectors in space, 291 Solar power, photovoltaic (PV) backup power, 151 n.10 competitiveness, 99-100 costs, 58, 99-100, 101, 281, 283-284, 293, 294-295 dye-sensitized solar cell, 283, 284, 292 electricity generation capacity, 272, 277-278, 316 employment, 304 energy savings, 151 environmental impacts, 302 greenhouse gas emissions, 69 integration in power grid, 3 nanotechnology, 283, 284, 291 organic solar cells, 283, 292 point-of-use (residential) installations, 59, 96, 272-273, 299 potential of, 13, 151 R&D opportunities, 6, 59 resource base, 277-278 silicon flat-plate arrays, 96, 277-278, 281, 283-284, 303-304, 305 technology description, 96-97, 281, 283-284, 305 thin-film technologies, 96-97, 283-284, 305 Solar power, thermal nonelectric, 318-320. See also Concentrating solar power South Korea, 20, 190, 453, 504 n.4 Spain, 285, 446

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation Steam heating and process heating, 180, 181, 184 Strontium, 461, 519, 522, 523, 552 Sulfur oxides, 189, 249, 288, 301, 313, 333, 369, 408 Superior Graphite, 163 Supply of energy. See Energy supply Surface Mine Control and Reclamation Act, 405 Sweden, 446, 535 Synthesis gas, 220, 226, 232, 242, 249, 258-259, 261, 263, 284, 289, 364, 367, 419, 425 Synthetic biology, 257-258 T Taxes barriers to technology deployment, 88 carbon, 38 n.1, 244, 406 credits, 38 n.1, 51, 95, 99, 101, 144, 188, 192, 195-196, 273, 274, 298, 299, 307, 308, 317, 447 n.7, 468, 489, 530 depreciation deductions, 152, 188, 190 fuel/energy, 157, 192 Technetium, 522, 523, 552 Technology. See Critical technologies; Energy-supply and end-use technologies; Research, development, and demonstrations; specific technologies Texas, 338, 339, 397, 398, 401, 436, 567, 568 Thailand, 20 Thermochemical conversion biomass-to-liquid fuel, 91, 226, 227, 228, 229, 232, 239-240, 252 carbon capture and storage, 74, 91-92, 226, 227, 228, 229-230, 231-233, 239, 250-251 co-fed biomass and coal, 3-4, 91-92, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 235, 237-238, 242, 245-246, 247-248, 249 coal-to-liquid fuel, 91, 92, 220, 227, 228-229, 230-231, 249 commercialization, 226-227 cost analysis, 91, 227-231, 244 direct liquefaction of coal, 230-231 environmental impacts, 249 findings, 231-232 Fischer-Tropsch process, 67, 72, 93, 220, 226, 228, 229, 230-231, 235, 236, 237, 238, 239, 240, 242, 252, 261 greenhouse gas emissions, 91-92, 227-228, 232, 236-237, 239 indirect liquefaction process, 220, 226-230, 232 methanol-to-gasoline process, 67, 72, 93, 220, 226-227, 228, 229, 235, 236-237, 238, 239, 240, 252, 258-259, 262 RD&D, 74, 231, 247 siting of plants, 247-248 supply of fuel from, 92, 242-243, 244 water usage, 249 3M, 163 Townsend Advanced Energy, 163 Toxic Substances Control Act, 405 Toyota, 163 Transportation sector. See also Air transportation; Alternative transportation fuels; Freight transportation; Passenger transportation barriers to improving energy efficiency, 172-173 baseline case, 141 commercial, 156, 159-160 consumption of energy, 137, 138, 155-157, 243 energy efficiency, 2, 3, 4, 38-39 n.1, 40, 41, 43, 44-46, 62, 82, 84-86, 88, 141, 155-174 energy intensity, 175 findings, 3, 4, 44-45, 173-174 greenhouse gas emissions, 4, 5, 16, 73, 84, 108, 156, 160, 211, 212, 333 infrastructure considerations, 86, 156-157, 160, 171, 174 intelligent systems, 86, 171-172 international comparisons, 157, 170 liquid fuel consumption, 36-37, 62-65, 139 petroleum dependence, 3, 14, 16, 17, 24, 62, 84, 89, 108, 139, 156, 180, 211, 243, 331 portfolio approach, 4, 5, 68, 71 potential for energy savings, 44-46, 62, 82, 84, 156, 157-169, 173 public policies, 86, 172-173 regulations, 38-39 n.1 system-level improvements, 86, 171-172, 174 TVA, 186, 473 n.68

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation U Underground Injection Control program, 407 Union of Concerned Scientists, 404 United Kingdom, 446, 463, 519, 522, 533 Ukraine, 452 Uranium demand, 538, 539 downblending, 538 n.38 enrichment, 483-484, 523 n.32, 536, 538 fuel cycle, 519 hydride fuel and moderator, 507, 509 imports, 538 n.39 mining and milling, 60, 485, 486, 536, 537-538 oxide fuel, 520, 521, 514 prices, 470, 528 radioactive emissions, 541 tailings, 537, 538 resources and reserves, 13, 115, 458, 492-494, 496, 499, 518, 524, 535, 536 U.S. Department of Energy, 219 20% wind electricity generation scenario, 13, 95, 98-99, 305-306, 309-316 Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative, 470, 510, 522 employment, 304 FutureGen, 360, 432 Job and Economic Development model, 313 Next Generation Nuclear Plant program, 456, 511 Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office, 185, 293 Office of Nuclear Energy, 522 Office of Science, 76 RD&D programs, 194-195, 198, 221-222, 293 Solar America Initiative, 310, 316 U.S. Department of the Interior, 403 n.35 U.S. Department of Transportation, 219 U.S. energy system. See also individual resources aging of, 13 critical characteristics, 11-13 current profile, 11-25 regional considerations, 31-32 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 219, 359 carbon storage regulations, 407, 441 Clean Air Interstate Rule, 404 n.39 Clean-Fuel Fleet Program, 261 coal mining standards, 408 New Source Review program, 188-189 pollutant limits, 322, 404 radiation exposure limits, 546 vehicle size and weight limits, 46 websites on environmental regulation and assessments, 403 n.35, 542 n.45 U.S. Geological Survey, 340, 351 U.S. Maritime Transportation Security Act, 409 U.S. Minerals Management Service, 340, 351, 355, 403 n.35 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 113, 114 n.18, 445, 449, 450-452, 454, 460, 472, 475, 478-479, 481, 487, 488, 490-491, 493, 496, 504, 505, 506, 507, 509-510, 541, 545, 546, 548, 550, 555, 558, 557 U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 310 Useful energy sources, defined, 12 V Vanadium redox, 625, 627 Vermont, 196 W Washington state, 196 Waste-heat and waste-materials as energy sources, 86, 87, 181, 182 Water use, 248, 409-410 Western Governors’ Association, 316 Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, 314 Windows, 84, 144, 149, 150-151, 155, 194-195, 197 Wind power 20% penetration scenarios, 13, 95, 98-99, 100, 309-316, 317 capacity, 98-99, 305-306 consumption, by sector, 17 costs, 57, 58, 96, 99, 100, 101, 121, 126, 274, 281, 293, 294-295, 296-299, 313-314, 317 deployment challenges, 60, 99, 101, 304-305 electricity generation capacity, 17, 27, 36, 51, 57, 95, 128, 272, 275-276, 316

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Amreica’s Enery Future: Technology and Transformation employment, 304 energy flows, 12, 13 environmental impacts, 101, 301, 302, 313 financing, 95, 274 and greenhouse gas emissions, 69, 312 high-altitude kites, 291 integration in power grid, 3, 34, 57, 60, 81, 96, 99, 100, 101, 133, 280, 290, 296-297, 298, 306-307, 314-315, 317 manufacturing, materials, and labor requirements, 98, 311-313 offshore, 36, 58, 100, 126, 281, 294-295, 313-314 onshore, 36, 57, 58, 99, 100, 126, 276, 281, 293 n.5, 294-295, 297, 299 potential, 96, 99 price of, 273 public policies, 95, 99, 101, 273, 274, 307, 308 resource base, 96, 128, 275-276, 279 self-erecting towers, 281 siting, 60, 101, 308-309, 315-316 storage and load management, 75, 99, 280, 281, 297, 308-309 supply curve, 297, 298 technology description, 96, 280-281, 282 turbines, 95, 96, 100, 276, 279, 280-281, 282, 296, 304-305, 311-312, 315, 317 World GTL, 261 World Resources Institute, 404 n.38 Worldwatch Institute, 404 n.38 Wyoming, 339, 397 Z ZEBRA battery, 627 Zinc bromide battery, 625, 627

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