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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under NSF grant number ATM-0455946. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF, of NOAA, or any of its sub agencies.
Copies of this report are available from the program office:
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-3512
Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM’S SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 1.3
DAVID H. BROMWICH (Chair),
The Ohio State University, Columbus
AIGUO DAI,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
IOANA M. DIMA,
AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, Massachusetts
JOHN W. NIELSEN-GAMMON,
Texas A&M University, College Station
BENJAMIN KIRTMAN,
University of Miami, Florida
ROBERT N. MILLER,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
ANDREW W. ROBERTSON,
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York
NRC Staff
MARIA UHLE, Study Director
RACHAEL SHIFLETT, Senior Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND (Chair),
University of California, Irvine
M. JOAN ALEXANDER,
NorthWest Research Associates/CORA, Boulder, Colorado
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
CAROL ANNE CLAYSON,
Florida State University, Tallahassee
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KERRY A. EMANUEL,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
DENNIS L. HARTMANN,
University of Washington, Seattle
PETER R. LEAVITT,
Weather Information Inc., Newton, Massachusetts
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
Ex Officio Members
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR.,
University of Maryland, College Park
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
CURTIS MARSHALL, Program Officer
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Program Officer
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer
LEAH PROBST, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant
KATIE WELLER, Senior Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
Acknowledgments
This report itself has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Mary Anne Carroll, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Peter R. Leavitt, Weather Information Company, Newton Centre, Massachusetts
Elizabeth L. Malone, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland
Joellen L. Russell, University of Arizona, Tucson
Andrew R. Solow, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lynne D. Talley, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3: Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
Contents
SUMMARY
1
1
INTRODUCTION
3
2
KEY ISSUES
7
3
REVIEW OF INDIVIDUAL CHAPTERS
14
Abstract
14
Preface
14
Executive Summary
15
Chapter 1
16
Chapter 2
17
Appendix A
23
Appendix B
23
Chapter 3
24
Chapter 4
31
REFERENCES
33
APPENDIXES
A CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS
37
B PROSPECTUS FOR SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 1.3
42
C COMMITTEE AND STAFF BIOGRAPHIES
54
D COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM’S SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 1.3 STATEMENT OF TASK
58
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