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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
ORIGIN AND EVOLUTION OF EARTH
RESEARCH QUESTIONS FOR A CHANGING PLANET
Committee on Grand Research Questions in the Solid-Earth Sciences
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Science Foundation, Award No. EAR-0533650; National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Award No. NNH06CE15B, TO #104; U.S. Department of Energy, Award No. DE-FG02-05ER15664; and U.S. Department of Interior / U.S. Geological Survey, Award No. 05HQGR0138. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-11717-3 (Book)
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-11717-3 (Book)
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-11718-0 (PDF)
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-11718-6 (PDF)
Library of Congress Catalog Number: 2008929776
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Cover: Selection of scales and disciplines relevant to Earth science. Top: Artist’s conception of an emerging solar system around the star Beta Pictoris. Courtesy of Lynette R. Cook and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Bottom right: Outcrop of Neoproterozoic (750-800 million years old) platform carbonates (left) and subjacent interbedded carbonaceous shales and stromatolitic carbonates (right) exposed by receding glacier, northeastern Spitsbergen. Courtesy of Andrew Knoll, Harvard University. Bottom middle: A spherical-global view (orthographic projection) of the western hemisphere 105 million years ago. Courtesy of Ronald Blakey, Northern Arizona University. Bottom left: Ground motion intensities for a simulated magnitude 7.7 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in the Los Angeles area. Visualization courtesy of Amit Chourasia and Steve Cutchin, San Diego Supercomputer Center, University of California, San Diego, based on data provided by Kim Olsen and colleagues, Southern California Earthquake Center. Back: Repeated images of the crystal structure of stishovite, a mantle mineral that can store water in Earth’s interior. Courtesy of Lars Stixrude, University of Michigan.
Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
COMMITTEE ON GRAND RESEARCH QUESTIONS IN THE SOLID-EARTH SCIENCES
DONALD J. DEPAOLO, Chair,
University of California, Berkeley
THURE E. CERLING,
University of Utah, Salt Lake City
SIDNEY R. HEMMING,
Columbia University, Palisades, New York
ANDREW H. KNOLL,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
FRANK M. RICHTER,
The University of Chicago
LEIGH H. ROYDEN,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
ROBERTA L. RUDNICK,
University of Maryland, College Park
LARS STIXRUDE,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
JAMES S. TREFIL,
George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
National Research Council Staff
ANNE M. LINN, Study Director
JARED P. ENO, Research Associate
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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chair,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
GREGORY B. BAECHER,
University of Maryland, College Park
KEITH C. CLARKE,
University of California, Santa Barbara
DAVID J. COWEN,
University of South Carolina, Columbia
WILLIAM E. DIETRICH,
University of California, Berkeley
ROGER M. DOWNS,
The Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JEFF DOZIER,
University of California, Santa Barbara
KATHERINE H. FREEMAN,
The Pennsylvania State University, University Park
RUSSELL J. HEMLEY,
Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C.
MURRAY W. HITZMAN,
Colorado School of Mines, Golden
LOUISE H. KELLOGG,
University of California, Davis
CLAUDIA INÉS MORA,
Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
BRIJ M. MOUDGIL,
University of Florida, Gainesville
V. RAMA MURTHY,
University of Minnesota (retired), Minneapolis
CLAYTON R. NICHOLS,
Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (retired), Standpoint
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada
BARBARA A. ROMANOWICZ,
University of California, Berkeley
JOAQUIN RUIZ,
University of Arizona, Tucson
WILLIAM W. SHILTS,
Illinois State Geological Survey, Champaign
RUSSELL E. STANDS-OVER-BULL,
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, Billings, Montana
TERRY C. WALLACE, JR.,
Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
HERMAN B. ZIMMERMAN,
National Science Foundation (retired), Arlington, Virginia
National Research Council Staff
ANTHONY R. DE SOUZA, Director
ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Senior Program Officer
DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Program Officer
CAETLIN M. OFIESH, Associate Program Officer
VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative and Financial Associate
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial Associate
JARED P. ENO, Research Associate
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Research Associate
TONYA E. FONG YEE, Program Assistant
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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
Preface
Over the past four decades, Earth scientists have made great strides in understanding our planet’s workings and history. We understand as never before how plate tectonics shapes our planet’s surface, how life can be sustained over billions of years, and how geological, biological, atmospheric, and oceanic processes interact to produce climate—and climatic change. Yet at the most basic level, this progress has served principally to lay bare more fundamental questions about Earth. Expanding knowledge is generating new questions, while innovative technologies and new partnerships with other sciences provide new paths toward answers.
The Committee on Grand Research Questions in the Solid-Earth Sciences was established at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Science Foundation, and U.S. Geological Survey to frame some of the great intellectual challenges inherent in the study of Earth and other planets. Although many reports have identified research priorities in Earth science, few have cast them as compelling, fundamental science questions. Such “big picture” questions may require decades to answer and research support from many agencies and organizations. The answers to these questions could profoundly affect our understanding of the planet on which we live.
The committee began by drafting “strawman” questions and publishing them for comment in Eos, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union (Linn, 2006), on the National Academies website, and in electronic newsletters of the American Geological Institute and the Association of Women Geoscientists. Written input was also gathered from colleagues. The committee met four times to gather input, discuss community feedback, and write its report.
A small committee cannot hope to have all the expertise needed to cover the broad range of topics discussed in this report. Consequently, the committee solicited essays from colleagues. Of particular note were the essays provided by Greg Beroza, Katharine Cashman, and Kevin Zahnle. Other colleagues who devoted many hours helping the committee sort through ideas include Alan Anderson, Richard Bambach, Katherine Freeman, James Kasting, Barbara Romanowicz, Sean Solomon, and Mary Lou Zoback. The committee is deeply appreciative of their contributions. The committee also thanks the many other individuals who provided input or feedback on the questions: Richard Allen, Paul Barton, Steven Benner, David Bercovici, Robert Berner, Robert Blair, Jr., Gudmundur Bodvarsson, Alan Boss, Gabriel Bowen, Susan Brantley, Douglas Burbank, Frank Burke, Kenneth Caldeira, Richard Carlson, John Chambers, Frederick Colwell, Kevin Crowley, Gedeon Dagan, Andrew Davis, William Dickinson, William Dietrich, David Diodato, Bruce Doe, Robert Dott, Jr., Benjamin Edwards, Peter Eichhubl, Michael Ellis, W. Gary Ernst, Douglas Erwin, Rodney Ewing, Fredrick Frey, Arthur Goldstein, Linda Gundersen, David Halpern, Wayne Hamilton, T. Mark Harrison, John Hayes, James Head, Michael Hochella, Jr., Vance Holliday, Richard Iverson, A. Hope Jahren, Raymond Jeanloz, Gerald Joyce, Joseph Kirschvink, John LaBrecque, Thorne Lay, Antonio Lazcano,
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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
Cin-Ty Lee, William Leeman, Jonathan Lunine, Ernest Majer, Michael Manga, Anthony Mannucci, William McDonough, Dan McKenzie, Marcia McNutt, H. Jay Melosh, Peter Molnar, Isabel Montanez, Alexandra Navrotsky, Shlomo Neuman, Gary Olhoeft, Carolyn Olson, Peter Olson, Minoru Ozima, Nazario Pavoni, Donald Porcelli, Jonathan Price, Steven Pride, George Redden, Paul Renne, Robin Reichlin, Mark Richards, Daniel Schrag, Norman Sleep, D. Kip Solomon, Gerilyn Soreghan, Frank Spear, Gary Sposito, Steven Stanley, Ross Stein, Robert Stern, David Stevenson, Lynn Sykes, Jack Szostak, Thomas Tharp, Leon Thomsen, Oliver Tschauner, Terry Tullis, Greg Valentine, Richard Von Herzen, Joseph Wang, James Whitcomb, Raymond Willemann, M. Gordon Wolman, Nicholas Woodward, Eva Zanzerkia, Xiaobing Zhou, and Herman Zimmerman.
Donald J. DePaolo, Chair
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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Douglas Erwin, Smithsonian Institution
Jonathan Fink, Arizona State University
Jeffrey Freymueller, University of Alaska
Russel Hemley, Carnegie Institution of Washington
Thomas Jordan, University of Southern California
Louise Kellogg, University of California, Davis
Rosamond Kinzler, American Museum of Natural History
Jay Melosh, University of Arizona
Franklin Orr, Stanford University
Norman Sleep, Stanford University
Steven Stanley, University of Hawaii
David Stevenson, California Institute of Technology
Robert van der Hilst, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Marcia McNutt, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
Contents
SUMMARY
1
1
ORIGINS
7
Question 1: How did Earth and other planets form?
7
Question 2: What happened during Earth’s “dark age” (the first 500 million years)?
18
Question 3: How did life begin?
27
2
EARTH’S INTERIOR
35
Question 4: How does Earth’s interior work, and how does it affect the surface?
35
Question 5: Why does Earth have plate tectonics and continents?
50
Question 6: How are Earth processes controlled by material properties?
60
3
A HABITABLE PLANET
71
Question 7: What causes climate to change—and how much can it change?
71
Question 8: How has life shaped Earth—and how has Earth shaped life?
84
4
HAZARDS AND RESOURCES
95
Question 9: Can earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and their consequences be predicted?
95
Question 10: How do fluid flow and transport affect the human environment?
111
REFERENCES
123
APPENDIXES
A
Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
133
B
Acronyms and Abbreviations
137
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