Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft

Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring

Committee on a Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Sensor Descopes and Demanifests on the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft

Space Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
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Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring Committee on a Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Sensor Descopes and Demanifests on the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH06CE15B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Contract DG133R07SE1940 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-12184-2 International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-12184-1 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advis- ing the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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OTHER REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD Opening New Frontiers in Space: Choices for the Next New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity (2008) Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2008) Space Science and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations: Summary of a Workshop (2008) United States Civil Space Policy: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Workshop Series on Issues in Space Science and Technology: Summary of Space and Earth Science Issues from the Workshop on U.S. Civil Space Policy (2008) Assessment of the NASA Astrobiology Institute (2007) An Astrobiology Strategy for the Exploration of Mars (SSB with the Board on Life Sciences [BLS], 2007) Building a Better NASA Workforce: Meeting the Workforce Needs for the National Vision for Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2007) Decadal Science Strategy Surveys: Report of a Workshop (2007) Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (2007) Exploring Organic Environments in the Solar System (SSB with the Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, 2007) Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Review (2007) The Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems (SSB with BLS, 2007) NASA’s Beyond Einstein Program: An Architecture for Implementation (SSB with the Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA], 2007) Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (2007) A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Astrophysics Program (SSB with BPA, 2007) Portals to the Universe: The NASA Astronomy Science Centers (2007) The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon (2007) An Assessment of Balance in NASA’s Science Programs (2006) Assessment of NASA’s Mars Architecture 2007-2016 (2006) Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Venus Missions: Letter Report (2006) Distributed Arrays of Small Instruments for Solar-Terrestrial Research: Report of a Workshop (2006) Issues Affecting the Future of the U.S. Space Science and Engineering Workforce: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2006) Review of NASA’s 2006 Draft Science Plan: Letter Report (2006) The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon—Interim Report (2006) Space Radiation Hazards and the Vision for Space Exploration (2006) Limited copies of these reports are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3477/ssb@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html NOTE: Listed according to year of approval for release, which in some cases precedes the year of publication. iv

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COMMITTEE ON A STRATEGY TO MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF SENSOR DESCOPES AND DEMANIFESTS ON THE NPOESS AND GOES-R SPACECRAFT ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR., University of Maryland, Chair PHILIP E. ARDANUY, Raytheon Information Solutions JUDITH A. CURRY, Georgia Institute of Technology CRAIG J. DONLON, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research JUDITH L. LEAN, Naval Research Laboratory BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire R. STEVEN NEREM, University of Colorado at Boulder ANNE W. NOLIN, Oregon State University JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company JOYCE E. PENNER, University of Michigan JAMES F.W. PURDOM, Colorado State University CARL F. SCHUELER, Consultant (Raytheon Company, retired) GRAEME L. STEPHENS, Colorado State University CHRISTOPHER S. VELDEN, University of Wisconsin at Madison ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution FRANK J. WENTZ, Remote Sensing Systems Consultant STACEY W. BOLAND, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Staff ARTHUR CHARO, Study Director THERESA M. FISHER, Program Associate CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Assistant Editor v

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired), Vice Chair DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering CHARLES L. BENNETT, Johns Hopkins University YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN, Dixie State College and Aerospace Corporation ALAN DRESSLER, The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution JACK D. FELLOWS, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, Naval War College KLAUS KEIL, University of Hawaii MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory JAMES PAWELCZYK, Pennsylvania State University SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of California, Irvine JOAN VERNIKOS, Thirdage LLC JOSEPH F. VEVERKA, Cornell University WARREN M. WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research CHARLES E. WOODWARD, University of Minnesota ELLEN G. ZWEIBEL, University of Wisconsin MARCIA S. SMITH, Director vi

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Preface In June 2007, the National Research Council (NRC) held a 3-day workshop, “Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft,” in Washington, D.C., to discuss options to recover measure- ment capabilities, especially those related to climate research, that were lost following a congressionally mandated review completed in June 2006 (Nunn-McCurdy certification1) of the NPOESS program and the September 2006 cancellation of the HES sensor on GOES-R. Some 100 scientists and engineers from academia, government, and industry attended the workshop, which gave participants a chance to consider and comment on a mitigation plan developed by NASA-NOAA as well as to explore options that were not included in the NASA-NOAA study. An NRC report on the workshop proceedings was released in prepublication form in September 2007. 2 By design, that report did not present findings or recommendations. Shortly before the workshop, NASA and NOAA requested that a committee of the NRC separate from the workshop organizing panel be formed to carry out a short follow-on study that would perform the following tasks (see Appendix A): 1. Prioritize capabilities, especially those related to climate research, that were lost or placed at risk fol- lowing recent changes to NPOESS and the GOES-R series of polar and geostationary environmental monitoring satellites; and 2. Present strategies to recover these capabilities. The present report, written by the ad hoc Committee on a Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Sensor Descopes and Demanifests on the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft, constitutes the NRC response to this request. See U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science and Technology, Hearing Charter, “The Future of NPOESS: Results of the 1 Nunn-McCurdy Review of NOAA’s Weather Satellite Program,” June 8, 2006, available at http://gop.science.house.gov/hearings/full06/ June%208/charter.pdf. The workshop report (National Research Council, Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A 2 Workshop Report, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008) is reprinted in Appendix B. vii

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Mark R. Abbott, Oregon State University, Sarah T. Gille, Scripps Institution of Oceanography and University of California, San Diego, Ralph F. Milliff, Colorado Research Associates, William B. Rossow, City University of New York, Thomas H. Vonder Haar, Colorado State University, and Steven C. Wofsy, Harvard University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Carl Wunsch, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Michael J. Prather, University of California, Irvine. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. viii

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 CONTEXT 10 NPOESS and GOES-R in Relation to Climate Research, 10 Input from NASA and NOAA, 12 Ongoing Community Concern, 13 References, 16 2 PRIORITIZATION OF LOST CAPABILITIES AND OPTIONS FOR SHORT-TERM RECOVERY 17 Prioritization Process, 17 Climate Areas Impacted by NPOESS Changes, 20 Climate Areas Impacted by GOES-R Changes, 23 Near-Term Mitigation Options, 23 Reintegration on NPOESS Platforms, 24 Free-Flyer Missions, 24 Flights of Opportunity, 26 Leveraging International Efforts, 26 Summary of Priorities, 27 References, 27 3 RECOMMENDED SHORT-TERM RECOVERY STRATEGY 29 Rationale for Prioritization: NPOESS Lost Capabilities, 29 Microwave Radiometry, 29 Radar Altimetry, 34 Earth Radiation Budget, 38 Hyperspectral Diurnal Coverage, 42 Solar Irradiance, 44 Aerosol Properties, 50 Ocean Color, 52 Ozone Profiles, 57 ix

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x CONTENTS Rationale for Prioritization: GOES-R Lost Capabilities, 58 Geostationary Advanced Hyperspectral Sounding, 58 Geostationary Coastal Waters Imagery, 62 Summary of Committee Recommendations for Near-Term Recovery, 63 References, 65 4 ELEMENTS OF A LONG-TERM CLIMATE STRATEGY 68 Operational Versus Sustained Climate Observations, 68 Calibration, Characterization, Stability, and Continuity, 70 Appropriate Data System Design, 72 Clear National Policy for Provision of Long-Term Climate Measurements, 72 Clear Agency Roles and Responsibilities, 73 International Coordination, 73 Community Involvement in the Development of Climate Data Records, 74 Conclusion: A Way Forward, 75 References, 75 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 81 B Reprinted Workshop Report 82 C Community Letter to NASA and NOAA Regarding Concerns Over NPOESS Preparatory Project VIIRS Sensor, and Response by S. Alan Stern 167 D Acronyms 171 E Committee and Staff Biographical Information 176