This chapter provides an overview of the major cohort studies identified by the committee that examined long-term health outcomes related to traumatic brain injury (TBI). The studies are categorized by population, including military and veteran populations, general population, and people who sustained sports-related TBIs.
Most major cohorts, once established, led to additional health outcome studies, which the committee refers to as derivative studies. Table 5.1, at the end of this chapter, provides information on each original cohort study, including the study design, the recruitment method, the eligible population, the study population, and the percentage of subjects who were enrolled. Information on the derivative studies appears in the table under the information on the original cohort studies from which they drew their populations and includes purpose, design, enrollment of subjects, sample size, response rates, and other characteristics if provided by the study authors. The information on derivative studies helped the committee to identify the populations that have been studied frequently and to understand which studies were independent of each other so that it could avoid evaluating studies of health outcomes in the same population repeatedly.
Studies discussed below might not be included as primary studies in Chapters 6 through 10, because they did not meet the committee’s strict criteria for primary studies. However, many of those not included as primary studies have been included as secondary studies and informed the committee’ decisions about the long-term consequences of TBI.
A number of limitations were encountered when the committee was reviewing the studies that are detailed below. Among them are self-reporting of exposure and health outcomes, lack of representativeness, selection bias, and failure to include a reference or control population.
Many of the cohort studies relied on self-reporting of exposure (such as TBI, concussion, and loss of consciousness) and outcomes (such as headache and memory problems) rather than clinical evaluation or medical-record review. Self-reporting of exposure in retrospective cohort studies introduces the possibility of recall bias, the tendency for participants who have an outcome to overestimate (or underestimate) their exposure. That can limit the usefulness of study findings because outcomes may not necessarily be attributable to the exposure in question (TBI).
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5
MAJOR COHORT STUDIES
This chapter provides an overview of the major cohort studies identified by the
committee that examined long-term health outcomes related to traumatic brain injury (TBI). The
studies are categorized by population, including military and veteran populations, general
population, and people who sustained sports-related TBIs.
Most major cohorts, once established, led to additional health outcome studies, which the
committee refers to as derivative studies. Table 5.1, at the end of this chapter, provides
information on each original cohort study, including the study design, the recruitment method,
the eligible population, the study population, and the percentage of subjects who were enrolled.
Information on the derivative studies appears in the table under the information on the original
cohort studies from which they drew their populations and includes purpose, design, enrollment
of subjects, sample size, response rates, and other characteristics if provided by the study
authors. The information on derivative studies helped the committee to identify the populations
that have been studied frequently and to understand which studies were independent of each
other so that it could avoid evaluating studies of health outcomes in the same population
repeatedly.
Studies discussed below might not be included as primary studies in Chapters 6 through
10, because they did not meet the committee’s strict criteria for primary studies. However, many
of those not included as primary studies have been included as secondary studies and informed
the committee’ decisions about the long-term consequences of TBI.
GENERAL LIMITATIONS OF COHORT STUDIES
A number of limitations were encountered when the committee was reviewing the studies
that are detailed below. Among them are self-reporting of exposure and health outcomes, lack of
representativeness, selection bias, and failure to include a reference or control population.
Many of the cohort studies relied on self-reporting of exposure (such as TBI, concussion,
and loss of consciousness) and outcomes (such as headache and memory problems) rather than
clinical evaluation or medical-record review. Self-reporting of exposure in retrospective cohort
studies introduces the possibility of recall bias, the tendency for participants who have an
outcome to overestimate (or underestimate) their exposure. That can limit the usefulness of study
findings because outcomes may not necessarily be attributable to the exposure in question (TBI).
117
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118 GULF WAR AND HEALTH
Self-reporting of outcomes can introduce reporting bias. Reporting bias, which occurs
when the group being studied reports more frequently what it remembers than a comparison
group, can potentially lead to an overestimation of the incidence or prevalence of symptoms or
diagnoses in the exposed populations. Self-reporting of outcomes based solely on symptoms
might also introduce misclassification bias, in which there are errors in how symptoms are
classified into outcomes.
Low participation rates, which can introduce selection bias, can severely limit the ability
to generalize study results because the study population may not be representative of the larger
population to which the results are meant to be generalized. A related issue is the use of
inappropriate controls, such as comparison of military populations with civilian populations;
military personnel may be healthier than the general population, so the two populations may be
noncomparable. That is referred to as the healthy-warrior effect; there may have been nonrandom
assignment of those selected and not selected for participation in the military. It is possible to
measure the potential for such biases and to adjust for them in the analysis.
Another important limitation of some of the cohort studies is that they lack unexposed
control groups. An unexposed group is a necessary component of a well-designed cohort study
because it permits comparisons of rates of disease between exposed and unexposed populations
and understanding of how an exposure affects the incidence of an outcome.
Some of the studies discussed below are registries of participants who presented for care.
These studies are not intended to be representative of the symptoms and diagnoses of an entire
population.
Although this is not necessarily a limitation, many studies discussed below were not
designed with the committee’s research question in mind. It was therefore difficult to use their
findings to assess the broader question of the relation of long-term health outcomes to TBI.
ORGANIZATION OF THE CHAPTER
This chapter has sections on military cohort studies, population-based studies, other
cohort studies, and sports-related studies. For each major cohort study, the methods for selecting
the study population, the outcomes assessed, and the general findings are discussed. The
committee was most interested in studies of long-term health outcomes related to TBI in military
and veteran populations, so this group of studies is given primary consideration below.
MILITARY STUDIES
Studies of TBI have been conducted in nearly all the major conflicts of the 20th century,
including World Wars I and II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War; many of the studies
evaluated seizure as the outcome of interest. Meirowsky (1982) noted that studying military
populations “offers the advantage of similarity in age and general health of the subjects at the
time of injury and the relative ease with which they can be followed in subsequent years.” The
committee paid particular attention to studies that assessed TBI in military populations because
these were generally long-term prospective assessments of the population of interest.
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MAJOR COHORT STUDIES 119
E. A. Walker’s Studies of Head-Injured Bavarian World War I Veterans
Walker and Erculei (1970) examined a cohort of head-injured Bavarian World War I
veterans. The veterans were patients at a medical center established in Munich in 1916 for head
injuries. Medical records, including field medical records and neurology reports on 5,500 men
who had sustained head injuries, were reviewed in 1964–1966. The records also included
information on the men for up to 50 years after injury. About 1,000 records were randomly
selected from the 5,500, and death certificates were sought from social-welfare offices in Bavaria
and West Germany. Vital statistics were obtained for about 600 of the 1,000 men; the remainder
could not be located. Controls were about 600 uninjured Bavarian World War I veterans. Men
who were born before 1880, who died before the age of 35 years, or whose dates of death were
not known were excluded. Head injuries were diagnosed on the basis of demonstration of
immediate posttraumatic neurologic disturbance or evidence of a contusion, laceration, or
compound wound injury of the scalp. Posttraumatic epilepsy was diagnosed on the basis of
absence of preinjury seizures and the occurrence of seizures at some time after injury. Seizures
were verified by a physician, nurse, or family member; if no outside party could verify the
seizure occurred, this was noted. The authors noted that most of the patients had their first
seizure within a year after the injury and others many years after the injury (Walker et al., 1971).
Walker and colleagues (1971) compared life expectancy of those with injuries and
unwounded Bavarian veterans of World War I who had been awarded service medals carrying
small pensions. The injured group had 1.8% more deaths than expected in the general male
population, and a 4-year shorter life expectancy than the control group. In 1965, 73% of men at
least 65 years old with TBI and 80% of those at least 65 years old without TBI were alive. Weiss
et al. (1982) used the same data and found that in 1972, 497 (76.8%) of 647 TBI veterans and
483 (78.4%) of 616 of the control group had died.
E. A. Walker’s Studies of Head-Injured World War II Veterans
Walker and Ercluei (1969) also conducted a cohort study of 364 severely head-injured
World War II veterans 15 years after injury. Of these, 241 were originally studied at the Army
Posttraumatic Epilepsy Center at Cushing General Hospital in Framingham, Massachusetts, in
1945–1946; these patients experienced at least one posttraumatic seizure. A battery of medical,
psychologic, and electroencephalographic (EEG) tests were administered 1–3 years after injury;
a 10-year followup consisted of examination, phone interview, or questionnaire. The authors
reported that annual contact was made with nearly all subjects. The other 123, unselected head-
injured men were studied as part of a followup in Baltimore from 1950 to 1954 and identified
through Army and Veterans’ Administration (VA) pension rosters; the population was
comparable with the Cushing General Hospital group in severity of injury. Medical records were
not as detailed and complete as those on the group described previously. Neurologic, social,
psychometric, and EEG tests were administered 6–9 years after injury.
In general, the study participants had more severe brain wounds than would typically be
seen in civilian or military hospitals. Dural penetrating frontal wounds tended to be included in
the series although occipital and temporal injuries tended to be excluded (Walker and Erculei,
1969); dural penetration was found in 87% of the Cushing General Hospital group and in 71% of
the Baltimore group (Walker and Erculei, 1970).
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The authors contacted participants by mail, and information was obtained through
interviews and examination. They collected data on time from injury to examination,
socioeconomic and work status, clinical symptoms, state of cranium and scalp, neurologic
examination, epileptic status, EEG examinations, and psychometric testing (Wechsler-Bellevue,
Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory, Goddard Form Board, and McGill Picture
Anomaly Test). Information was obtained on 343 (94%) of the 364 men originally identified; 31
died, leaving 313 living patients. 2 Of the 313, 243 (78%) were examined in person (Walker and
Erculei, 1969).
The authors assessed a variety of outcomes related to head injury, including neurologic
symptoms (nervousness, headache, and other posttraumatic symptoms, such as nervousness and
headache), posttraumatic epilepsy, employment status and other social-function outcomes, and
psychologic outcomes. Of the 313 men, 212 (68%) reported some form of nervousness, from
mild to severe, and 200 (64%) reported that they had experienced headaches. The authors also
assessed posttraumatic syndrome, defined as a complex of symptoms that follow a minor head
injury, including dizziness, nervousness, anxiety, and emotional instability. Of the 306 veterans
on whom information was available, 34 (11%) reported no complaints, 65 (21%) had isolated
symptoms, and 207 (68%) had posttraumatic syndrome (Walker and Erculei, 1969).
Walker and Erculei (1969) also studied the prevalence of posttraumatic epilepsy. Two
primary groups were defined for the analysis: 199 posttraumatic epileptic men from Cushing
General Hospital and 114 men with posttraumatic encephalopathy from the Baltimore group who
were matched by class of injury. Clinical examinations were conducted on 154 of those with
epilepsy and 95 of those with encephalopathy. The authors found a statistically significantly
lower survival rate in those with posttraumatic epilepsy. Patients with posttraumatic epilepsy
were more likely to be unemployed (57%) than those with posttraumatic encephalopathy (14%).
Similarly, neurologic deficits were more likely in the group with epilepsy than in the group with
encephalopathy. Hemiplegia, for example, was found in 64% of the men with epilepsy and 40%
of those with encephalopathy. Increased mental impairment was also noted in the epileptic
group; in the memory tests, two errors or fewer were recorded by 85% of the posttraumatic-
encephalopathy group and 66% of the epilepsy group. Walker and Erculei (1970) also assessed
posttraumatic epilepsy and found that 15 years postinjury, 40% (n = 92) had no seizures of any
time between the 5th and 15th year; 3% had no seizures from the 10th to 15th year. Twenty-three
percent or 52 men continued to have 1 to 6 episodes annually; 68 had more than 6 episodes per
year.
In another analysis, Walker and colleagues (1969) assessed employment status after head
injury in 303 subjects (nine were omitted because they were hospitalized during the followup
assessment) and found that 182 (60%) men were regularly employed and 121 (40%) were
unemployed or working irregularly.
Neurologic deficits were also assessed (Walker and Erculei, 1969). Of the 249 men
examined, 199 (80%) exhibited abnormality of neurologic function. Of those with abnormal
neurologic function, hemiplegia was present alone or in combination with other findings in 118
(59%), hemianesthesia in 121 (61%), hemianopsia in 43 (22%), aphasia in 36 (18%), mental
impairment in 13 (7%), and cranial nerve defect in 137 (69%).
2
Numbers as reported in study.
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MAJOR COHORT STUDIES 121
Walker and Erculei (1969) found that few of the patients who had psychologic conditions
in the early posttraumatic years recovered, 19 men developed mental abnormalities 10–15 years
after injury, and severe mental disturbances occurred in only a small percentage of the patients.
Finnish Studies
Since 1948, the treatment, rehabilitation, and study of all head-injured Finnish war
veterans have been monitored by one central institution, the Rehabilitation Institute for Brain-
Injured Veterans. Achte and colleagues (1969), in an uncontrolled series, followed 3,552 men
who suffered head injury in the Finnish wars of 1939–1945 to identify the prevalence of
posttraumatic psychoses that developed up to 22–26 years after injury. On admission, mild
injuries accounted for 19%, moderately severe for 59%, and severe for 22% of the sample; open
head injuries were present in 42% of patients. Patients’ initial medical records and examination
and treatment records were reviewed to ensure the presence of a brain injury; questionable cases
were excluded. In addition, moderate and severe injuries may have been overrepresented
inasmuch as patients with mild traumas were often left untreated. Most patients were examined
personally by the authors; otherwise, records of psychiatric treatment were obtained in addition
to personal communication with the patients. Between the time of injury and 1966, 317 (8.9%) of
the original population experienced at least one psychotic episode; schizophrenic psychosis was
the most prevalent at 21.1% of the 317 (it appeared to be more frequent in the mildly injured and
those under 20 years old), followed by paranoid psychosis (17.6%), epileptic psychosis (14.6%),
and concussion psychosis (13.7%). Psychosis began in 24.0% of the cases less than 1 year, in
16.0% 1–5 years, in 17.7% 5–10 years, and in 42.3% over 10 years after injury.
In a more inclusive series by Achte and colleagues (1991), roughly 10,000 Finnish
veterans were followed for 50 years after brain injury. Of them, 2,907 suffered some type of
psychiatric disturbance throughout their lives, 26% (762) of which were classified as psychotic.
At the time of study publication, 251 of those veterans were assigned a detailed diagnosis with
the following distribution: delusional psychosis, 28%; major depression, 21%; delirium, 18%;
and paranoid schizophrenia, 14%. Delusional psychosis tended to develop 15–19 years after
injury and persisted for over 5 years in 40% of cases; paranoid schizophrenia and
schizophreniform generally had a shorter latency—less than a year in 23% of cases—and
persisted for over 5 years in 63% of cases.
Teuber’s Cohort
In the late 1940s and 1950s, Teuber and colleagues at the New York University–Bellevue
Medical Center recruited and examined over 300 World War II veterans (and some from World
War I and the Korean War) who lived near New York City and had sustained penetrating injuries
of the brain or the peripheral nervous system (Weinstein, 1954). All the veterans in this
longitudinal cohort study, originally identified from rosters maintained by the VA, incurred
traumatic lesions in the service. Sensory, motor, and cognitive tests were administered to the
veterans, first in Teuber’s New York laboratory and later by investigators at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology.
In one early study by Teuber and Weinstein (1954), 35 brain-injured veterans and 12
controls with arm or leg peripheral nerve injury were selected for assessment of performance on
a modified Seguin-Goddard formboard task by area of brain injury. The brain-injured veterans
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made significantly more errors, recalled fewer forms, and had greater variability in the time it
took to place the correct form in the correct opening. The investigators did not observe greater
impairment in those with frontal lobe injuries than in those with lesions in the parietal, temporal,
or occipital lobes.
In another study, Weinstein and Teuber (1957a) obtained preinjury scores on the Army
General Classification Test (AGCT) for 62 men who subsequently sustained penetrating brain
injuries and 50 controls who incurred nerve injuries of the arm or leg. Both groups of men were
retested with a comparable form of the AGCT (First Civilian Edition). The preinjury scores of
the two groups were similar: the mean score was 106.4 in the controls and 105.0 in the brain-
injured group. Scores on the postinjury test showed some gains in the controls (48 of the 50
controls increased their mean scores to 119.4) while there was little or no change in the brain-
injured men’s test scores. In the same sample of veterans, Weinstein and Teuber (1957b)
reported that the findings were independent of any effects for differences in preinjury education
and preinjury AGCT score.
A study of roughness discrimination was also conducted with Teuber’s cohort (Weinstein
et al., 1958), in which 43 veterans with brain injury were compared with 20 controls with leg
peripheral nerve injuries. The study participants’ task was to touch a patch of sandpaper and then
attempt to find in a comparison array of 18 patches the one that was identical in roughness. Four
sets of experiments were conducted: unilateral-successive for ipsilateral hand, unilateral-
successive for contralateral hand, bilateral-successive, and bilateral-simultaneous. In all groups,
there was a significantly lower average error in the unilateral experiments. However, there was a
deficit in roughness discrimination in veterans who had sustained a penetrating brain injury.
Under unilateral testing conditions, the left hand appeared to be more vulnerable to error than the
right hand, regardless of the location of the brain injury.
In more recent studies by Corkin et al. (1984, 1989), the investigators examined whether
life expectancy or cognitive decline late in life is associated with having survived a penetrating
brain injury. To study factors that might influence life expectancy, the authors evaluated 190
men who had sustained a brain injury during World War II and 106 men who had sustained
peripheral nerve injuries during the war. Survival information was obtained from the VA, and the
Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate cumulative survival distributions for the two groups.
Although sustaining a penetrating head injury alone did not shorten life expectancy, the risk of
death increased when it was coupled with posttraumatic epilepsy. As of May 1, 1983, mortality
was 3.6 times higher in veterans with brain injury and epilepsy than in veterans with peripheral
nerve injury.
Corkin et al. (1989) also evaluated the interaction between aging and effects of brain
injury in a similar series of veterans. To study whether head injury exacerbates cognitive decline
in later years, the authors evaluated 57 World War II veterans with head injury and 27 with
peripheral nerve injury matched on age, premorbid intelligence, and education. The participants
received two timed cognitive tests: the ACGT (Total, Vocabulary, Arithmetic, and Block
Counting) and the Hidden Figures Test, in which participants trace a simple geometric figure
embedded in another geometric figure. On all five cognitive measures, the group with brain
injury was statistically significantly inferior to the control group 10 years after injury. Over
another 30-year period (that is, 40 years after injury), cognitive decline was observed in the
brain-injury group on every AGCT measure except Vocabulary as compared to the control group
(Corkin et al., 1989).
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MAJOR COHORT STUDIES 123
W. F. Caveness Studies of Korean War Veterans
In 1951, W. F. Caveness, then chief of the neurologic service in the US Naval Hospital,
in Yokusaka, Japan, initiated a study of craniocerebral injuries in male military personnel
wounded during or immediately after the Korean War. The participants were seen at Yokusaka
or in the US Navy hospital ships off the coast of Korea. The investigators identified 467 cases in
1951–1954, many of them in Navy or Marine Corps personnel. During the initial period,
investigators conducted a review of medical records, gave periodic physical examinations,
distributed supplemental questionnaires and personal letters, and conducted interviews. The head
injuries were categorized as related to missiles (resulting from contact with small-arms fire,
grenades, land-mine mortar, or heavy artillery) or not related to missiles (resulting from blunt or
sharp objects or vehicle accidents or secondary to blast); missile-related injuries accounted for
more than half the injuries in the cohort (Caveness, 1963).
A followup study was conducted 8–11 years after the initial injury. During the followup
period, 356 of the original cases participated (76% of the total and 87% of those eligible for
followup). Information was collected with a mailed questionnaire, a physical examination,
interviews with the American Red Cross, and review of VA records. During the period 1957–
1958, additional VA information was available on 85% of the participants. Questionnaires were
obtained in 1961–1962 from 91% of the participants, personal letters from 22%, and telephone
replies from 10% (Caveness, 1963).
Additional studies of this cohort evaluated the prevalence of posttraumatic epilepsy as
diagnosed by EEG. Seizures were diagnosed if they fulfilled the criteria for focal somatomotor,
somatosensory, special sensory, or adversive seizures. Other less well-defined focal events, such
as patterns attributed to the temporal lobe, were included if accompanied by other overt
phenomena of seizures (Caveness, 1963). The investigators noted that generalized seizures,
characterized by a loss in consciousness with or without bilateral motor expression, “were
recognized either as a progression from a focal onset, in conjunction with focal seizures, or as a
principal expression of the convulsive disorder.”
Evans (1962) evaluated the prevalence of seizures in 422 of the head-injured Korean War
veterans 3–11 years after injury. The authors found the overall prevalence of seizures to be
19.7%. Those with penetrating head injuries had a prevalence of seizures of 32%, those with
blunt head injuries 8%, and those with blast wounds 2%.
Caveness and colleagues (1962) assessed the prevalence of seizures in five retrospective
cohorts from three wars (World War I, World War II, and the Korean War). In a random sample
of 407 cases from the Korean War 5 years after injury, 24.1% had seizures—35.1% of those with
missile head wounds and 12.2% with blunt or blast wounds.
Caveness (1963) also found that 8–9% of the 467 men initially included in the study
population had seizures within the first 2 weeks. Of the 356 men followed up 8–11 years after
injury, 109 (30.6%) had seizures. Forty-two percent of those with penetrating head wounds and
16.4% with blunt head wounds had seizures. There was no significant difference in seizure
incidence between the total original group and those followed for 8–11 years.
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Vietnam Head Injury Study
The Vietnam Head Injury Study (VHIS) is a long-term, prospective followup study of
head-injured Vietnam veterans, originally organized by William Caveness at the National
Institutes of Health (NIH). The ultimate goal of the study is to evaluate the long-term
neuropsychologic and other health outcomes of patients with penetrating head injury to learn
about the role of head injury in the etiology of dementia and posttraumatic epilepsy, mechanisms
of motor and cognitive recovery, and functions of various regions of the brain. The initial
registry phase, conducted during the Vietnam War, consisted of military physicians’ entering
demographic, injury, and outcome data on registry forms for about 2,000 head-injured soldiers
who had survived the first week after sustaining injury. Data were entered during 1967–1970.
Over 95% of the patients enrolled were male, had penetrating head injuries, and were 18–25
years old (Grafman, 2007).
Phase I of the study was a detailed medical-records review conducted some 5 years after
injury. At that time, the VHIS cohort consisted of 1,200 men who had either closed or
penetrating head injuries. Field records and records of acute hospitalization, rehabilitation, and
followup were available for all subjects. The VHIS cohort allowed tracking over long followup
periods and included preinjury vocational and intelligence testing (National Naval Medical
Center, 2008).
Phase II, conducted primarily by Grafman and Salazar, was a collaborative effort of the
VA, NIH, and the American Red Cross and consisted of a comprehensive inpatient evaluation at
the Walter Reed Army Medical Center of 520 head-injured subjects from the original cohort of
1,200 and 85 matched normal controls who were evaluated in 1981–1984 (12–15 years after
injury) (National Naval Medical Center, 2008). The controls were recruited from the VA files of
non-head-injured soldiers who had served in Vietnam in the same years and were within the
same age range as the head-injured soldiers. Many patients were lost to followup and were no
longer receiving medical care or were not honorably discharged, because of behavioral changes
related to their head injuries. Phase II was also used to identify these patients and refer them for
appropriate medical care. During phase II, researchers conducted a number of tests of neurologic,
motor, speech and language, and neuropsychologic outcomes. Phase II also identified veterans
with specific lesions (such as orbitofrontal and dorsal frontal) or with particular cognitive or
neurobehavioral deficits and studied the prevalence of posttraumatic epilepsy and cognitive
function after head injury (National Naval Medical Center, 2008).
Two such studies in phase II assessed seizures after head injury (Salazar et al., 1985;
Swanson et al., 1995). Swanson and colleagues (1995) assessed interictal personality traits in 238
veterans who had developed seizure disorders and compared them with personality traits in 229
veterans with penetrating head injuries but without seizures and 84 uninjured controls. Of the
238 with seizure disorders, 39 had simple partial seizures, 59 had complex partial seizures, 76
had partial seizures with secondary generalization, and 64 had generalized seizures. The authors
assessed history of psychiatric treatment, preinjury intelligence, brain-volume loss, seizure
frequency, and duration of epilepsy. Statistically significant increases in interictal
psychopathology were observed in the groups with complex partial seizures, partial seizures with
secondary generalization, and generalized seizures (but not simple partial seizures) compared
with controls. No group differences between groups with seizure types were found.
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MAJOR COHORT STUDIES 125
In an evaluation of 421 veterans from the VHIS cohort, Salazar and colleagues (1985)
found that 53% had posttraumatic epilepsy. The relative risk of epilepsy in the head-injured
veterans was 580 times higher than that in the general age-matched population in the first 6
months after injury and fell to 25 times higher after 10 years. Hemiparesis (p = 0.03), organic
mental disorder (p = 0.015), aphasia (p = 0.009), headache (p = 0.001), and visual-field loss (p =
0.015) were associated with seizures. The authors found that the incidence of posttraumatic
epilepsy was 86% in patients who had residual aphasia. Of patients with seizures, 57% had
attacks within a year and 25% 1–5 years after injury; in about 18%, the first seizure occurred
more than 5 years after injury; and in 7%, the first seizure occurred 10 years or more after injury.
Patients with frequent seizures in the first year after injury were more likely to have a longer
duration of epilepsy (p < 0.001). Of all those who sustained head injuries, 28% had persistent
seizures 15 years after injury. The major limitations of the study include its lack of a reference
group. It is also unclear whether seizures occurred before head injury.
Phase III, conducted from 2004 to 2006, examined the role of head injury in cognitive
neuroplasticity of the aging brain, memory and amnesia, such neurologic disorders as epilepsy,
and social functioning. Phase III testing included elective neuroimaging, such as positron-
emission tomography, and quantitative EEG. Of the 520 patients in phase II, 182 (35%)
participated in phase III, and 17 were newly recruited. Of the 85 controls in phase II, 32 (38%)
participated in phase III, and 23 were newly recruited (Grafman, 2007).
Two studies from phase III have been published: TBI and cognitive outcomes and TBI
and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Raymont and colleagues (2008) studied the
relationship of preinjury intelligence, brain-tissue volume loss, lesion location, demographic
variables, and the role of genetic markers in long-term cognitive decline. They found that
subjects with penetrating head injury had a greater degree of overall cognitive decline than
controls. Preinjury intelligence was the most consistent predictor of cognitive outcomes. Koenigs
and colleagues (2007) studied the relationship between TBI and PTSD and found a “reduced
occurrence of post traumatic stress disorder . . . following ventromedial prefrontal cortex damage
and the complete absence of PTSD following amygdala damage.”
Phase IV will begin in 2015, about 45 years after injury. The VHIS will provide baseline
premorbid and injury information that can be used to asses the effects of penetrating head injury
on the development of a variety of neurologic disorders in old age, the rate of physical and
cognitive decline, and the effects of various variables on performance data. The investigators
will re-examine the patients on some of the tasks (including standardized tests and the Armed
Forces Qualification Test) administered during the phase II evaluation to assess cognitive, mood,
personality, and neurologic functions.
Vietnam Experience Study
The Vietnam Experience Study (VES) was a multidimensional health assessment that
began with data collection from Vietnam-era veterans in the middle 1980s, about 16 years after
discharge (Luis et al., 2003). The VES included four components: medical and psychologic
examinations, mortality assessments, telephone interviews, and reproductive-outcome
assessments (CDC, 1989). The eligible population consisted of male US Army veterans who first
entered the military during the period January 1965–December 1971, served at least 4 months on
active duty, served only one tour of duty, obtained a military occupational specialty, and
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achieved a pay grade no higher than E-5 (sergeant) on discharge. On the basis of those
requirements, random sampling of military records found 9,324 men who had been members of
the US Army and served a single tour in Vietnam and 8,989 who served elsewhere (CDC, 1989).
From the total eligible population, 4,462 veterans were randomly selected. A comprehensive 3-
day medical and psychologic evaluation was administered to ascertain what health-related events
occurred from time of military discharge to the study date (Luis et al., 2003). Numerous studies
were published on the basis of extracted data on the cohort; the three described below evaluate
the effects of mild TBI.
Luis and colleagues (2003) compared the prevalence of persistent postconcussion
symptom complex (PPCSC) in veterans with and without a history of mild TBI. Of the 4,462
randomly selected veterans, 329 were excluded because they met criteria for PPCSC in the 10th
edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) or in the fourth edition of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) but not both; 55 were excluded
because of hospitalization, and 121 were excluded because data on them were incomplete. The
remaining 3,957 were categorized as follows: 2,937 with no history of motor-vehicle accident
(MVA) and no history of TBI, 488 with a history of MVA but no history of TBI, 323 with a
history of TBI unaccompanied by loss of consciousness (LOC), and 209 with a history of TBI
accompanied by LOC. Results indicated that the group that had had TBI with LOC had
significantly greater odds of having PPCSC than the unexposed control group (odds ratio [OR],
2.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.12–3.80). No significant difference was found between the
group with a history of an MVA but no TBI and the group with TBI but no LOC. Multiple
factors (demographic, psychiatric, and social support) accounted for 33% of the variance in
PPCSC in participants with TBI (history of TBI with or without LOC), but significantly less
variance was found in the no-TBI group (23.9%).
Vanderploeg and colleagues (2007) used a cross-sectional cohort sample to examine the
long-term psychiatric, neurologic, and psychosocial outcomes resulting from self-reported mild
TBI. A subsample of 4,384 veterans (excluding 40 who were hospitalized after injury and 38 on
whom data were incomplete) were categorized into three groups: no history of MVA and no
history of TBI (normal control, 3,214, 73%), injured in an MVA but no history of TBI (MVA
control, 539, 12.3%), and TBI with altered consciousness (mild TBI, 254, 5.8%); those who
reported a TBI without LOC were excluded (n = 377, 8.6%). Age, education, enlistment General
Technical Test scores, and medical and psychiatric conditions varied among the three groups and
were statistically controlled for in later analyses. The mild-TBI group had higher odds of having
depression than the normal control group (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.13–2.78). Antisocial personality
disorder was twice as prevalent in the veterans with mild TBI as in the normal control group, but
this outcome probably reflects a risk factor for obtaining an injury, given the similar rates of
preinjury conduct disorder. The odds of postconcussion symptoms (PCSs) were about doubled in
patients with a history of mild TBI by both DSM-IV and ICD-10 criteria (OR, 2.00 and 1.80,
respectively; 95% CI, 1.49–2.69 and 1.33–2.43, respectively). The odds of peripheral visual
imperceptions were twice as high (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.21–3.24) and of impaired tandem gait
were about three times as high (OR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.34–6.38). People with TBI had higher odds
of being unmarried (OR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.57–2.75) and higher odds of employment issues (OR,
1.89; 95% CI, 1.36–2.64), low income (OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.29–2.74), and self-reported
disability (OR, 2.90; 95% CI, 1.63–5.15).
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MAJOR COHORT STUDIES 127
Vanderploeg and colleagues (2005) used the same cohort to conduct a cross-sectional
study of neuropsychologic outcomes. A full 15-measure neuropsychologic battery with
neurologic measures of tandem gait and peripheral visual attention was administered. Results
revealed no statistically significant difference in any of the measures among the three groups. In
examining more subtle differences in attention, concentration, and memory, it was found that the
mild-TBI group had significantly higher odds of being unable to continue the Paced Auditory
Serial Addition Test (PASAT) than either of the two control groups (comparison with normal
control group: OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00–1.73; comparison MVA control, OR, 1.53; 95% CI 1.10–
2.13). With respect to working memory, the mild-TBI group had excessive proactive interference
(comparison with normal control group: OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.11–2.47). PASAT continuation
problems were associated with left-side visual imperceptions, and excessive proactive
interference was associated with impaired tandem gait in the mild-TBI group.
In another study of the VES cohort, Vanderploeg and colleagues (2003) conducted
logistic regression analyses to survey long-term outcomes of work and marital status in people
who had mild TBI and any pre-existing factors that may perpetuate the symptoms of the injury.
The author notes that the subsample (after exclusion of 53 people because they were hospitalized
and 87 because data on them were incomplete) consisted of 4,322 people: 626 (14%) who had a
mild TBI (373 without LOC, and 253 with LOC) and 3,896 (86%) who did not have a TBI.
Psychiatric disorders were assessed with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule (DIS-II-A), and
psychosocial outcomes were gathered by trained examiners. Results indicate that the outcome of
a mild TBI may be influenced by the presence of any pre-existing demographic, medical, or
psychiatric factors. Factors associated with work and marital status accounted for 23% and 17%,
respectively, of the variance in those with head injury. Variance was significantly lower in those
without head injury: 13.6% and 9.4%, respectively.
POPULATION-BASED STUDIES
Rochester Epidemiology Project
The Rochester Epidemiology Project is a medical-records-linkage system that
encompasses detailed health-care information on residents of the City of Rochester and Olmsted
County, Minnesota. Funded initially in 1966 with medical records dating back to 1910, the
project was designed to link all medical data and clinical information developed by the Mayo
Clinic with data obtained by community health providers, including Olmsted Medical Group, the
Olmsted Community Hospital, the University of Minnesota Hospital, and the Minneapolis VA
Medical Center. Each patient was assigned a unique identifier, and information on all medical
visits has been recorded for each patient. The database includes thorough medical histories,
clinical assessments, consultation reports, surgical procedures, laboratory and radiology results,
death certificates, and autopsy reports (Flaada et al., 2007). The medical information is
continuously updated into an electronic format. By maintaining complete medical histories, the
Rochester Epidemiology Project provides the capability to conduct population-based studies of
disease risk factors and health outcomes and can be used to study long-term secular trends in
disease incidence (Melton, 1996). As of 1996, the project included medical records on a
population with more than 3.6 million person-years of experience in 1950–1995 (Melton, 1996).
The demographic characteristics of Olmsted County residents largely resemble those of the US
white population (Melton, 1996). Over 1,500 publications have resulted from the project,
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162
Population (Where Appropriate)
Enrolled
Reference Purpose Study Design Eligible Located (Response Rate) Comments
Dikmen et al., Global outcome, Prospective cohort 466 subjects with TBI selected from 3 prospective, longitudinal 91% of 514
1995c independent living, studies (Behavioral Outcome in Head Injury, Patient Characteristics subjects followed
employment, income, and Head Injury Outcome, and Dilantin Prophylaxis of Post- to 1 year after
Sickness Impact Traumatic Seizures) injury
Profile Results presented
124 trauma controls who had bodily injury other than to head as weighted
averages to
88 friend controls, friends of TBI patients, with no pre-existing adjust for
conditions differences in
eligibility criteria
between studies
Doctor et al., 2005 Employment status Prospective cohort 418 TBI working before injury from 4 longitudinal investigations 374 of 418 (89%)
enrolled 1980–1994 (Behavioral Outcome in Head Injury, Patient followed to 1
Characteristics and Head Injury Outcome, Dilantin Prophylaxis of year after injury
Post-Traumatic Seizures, Valproate Prophylaxis of Post-Traumatic
Seizures)
Responded or
Subgroup (n= Contacted or Enrolled
(Response
Type of Study or Date(s) of Eligible Located (%
Reference Eligible Population Subjects) of Eligible) Rate) Comments
Methods Enrollment
Roberts (Radcliffe, UK) Studies
Roberts, 548 people (from total Prospective 1948–1961 11 lost to
1979 population of 7,000) 5–83 followup, 206
years old who sustained TBI died, leaving
and remained unconscious 331 surviving
or amnestic > 1 week patients (291
admitted to Radcliffe from
Infirmary, Oxford: 479 consecutive
admitted directly of accident series, 40 from
(consecutive series), 69 selected series)
transfers from Addenbrook
Hospital, Cambridge
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Population (Where Appropriate)
Enrolled
Reference Purpose Study Design Eligible Located (Response Rate) Comments
Roberts, Hypothalamic, pituitary Prospective 291 patients from consecutive series
1979 dysfunction
Roberts, Positional vertigo, Prospective 291 patients from consecutive series
1979 headaches
Roberts, Epilepsy Prospective 291 patients from consecutive series
1979
Lewin et al., Epilepsy, mortality Prospective, 291 patients from consecutive series, 75 patients in whom cause of
1979 retrospective death was determined
Responded or
Enrolled
Subgroup (n= Contacted or
Eligible Located (% (Response
Type of Study or Date(s) of
Reference Eligible Population Methods Enrollment Subjects) of Eligible) Rate) Comments
Jennett (Oxford, Rotterdam, Cardiff, and Manchester) Studies
Jennett and Oxford series: 1,000 head- Prospective, November 1948– 821 unselected
Lewin, 1960 injured patients with at least retrospective February 1952 patients
brief period of admitted
unconsciousness directly from
accident site;
179 selected
patients
transferred
from other
hospitals—
these cases
were
considered
more severe
and
complicated
163
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164
Population (Where Appropriate)
Enrolled
Reference Purpose Study Design Eligible Located (Response Rate) Comments
Jennett, Epilepsy Prospective 189 patients from Oxford series, cases from Lewin; 150 patients from
1969 Glasgow series epileptic within 8 weeks after injury; 73 patients with
missile injuries as comparison group; 333 patients 1 year after injury,
219 patients 4 years after injury with depressed fractures from Oxford
and Glasgow series
Jennett, Epilepsy Prospective 381 patients who had blunt head injuries followed by early epilepsy (n
1962 = 139), late epilepsy (n = 282) drawn from Oxford series (additional
patients captured outside study dates), Manchester and Cardiff,
England
Jennett, Epilepsy Prospective Patients with known risk factors for late epilepsy—early epilepsy,
1973 intracranial hematoma (evacuation within 14 days of injury), depressed
fracture—drawn from Oxford series, Glasgow series; 250 patients with
depressed fractures from Rotterdam
Jennett, Epilepsy Prospective Summary of previous data and findings
1975
Responded or
Subgroup (n= Contacted or Enrolled
(Response
Type of Study or Date(s) of Eligible Located (%
Reference Eligible Population Subjects) of Eligible) Rate) Comments
Methods Enrollment
Football Players: Guskiewicz et al. 2005, 2007
Guskiewicz All 3,683 living members of Retrospective cohort 2001–2002 2,552 2,552
3,683
et al., 2005 National Football League
Retired Players Association
Population (Where Appropriate)
Enrolled
Reference Purpose Study Design Eligible Located (Response Rate) Comments
Guskiewicz Depression Retrospective cohort 2,552 (69%) responded to questionnaires
et al., 2007
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Responded or
Subgroup Contacted or Enrolled
(Response
Type of Study or Date(s) of (n= Eligible Located (%
Reference Eligible Population Subjects) of Eligible) Rate) Comments
Methods Enrollment
Boxing Studies: Porter et al., 1996, 2003
Porter and Male boxers in amateur Prospective, 1991–1992 53 53 20 selected Many lost because
Fricker, boxing clubs in Ireland 16– observational randomly of strict exclusion
1996 25 years old; subjects had (38%) criteria; study of
to complete minimum of 40 boxing, not brain
bouts injury; flawed
comparison group
in that controls
also had
concussion;
differentiation in
rate of concussion
in cases, controls
Exclusion criteria:
excess alcohol
consumption (>
20 standard
drinks/week or >
4 drinks/day)
Population (Where Appropriate)
Enrolled
(Response Rate)
Reference Purpose Study Design Eligible Located Comments
Porter, 2003 Neuropsychologic Prospective, 20 male boxers from amateur boxing clubs in Ireland 16–25 years old; See comments
impairment observational subjects had to complete a minimum of 40 bouts above
1 case and 2 controls lost to followup
NOTE: ALS = amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, CHSA = Canadian Study of Health and Aging, CT = computed tomography, DSM-IV = Diagnostic and Statistical
Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th ed., ED = emergency department, GCS = Glasgow Coma Scale, GSW = gunshot wound, ICD-10 = International Statistical
Classification of Diseases and Health Related Problems, 10th revision, LLI = lower-limb injury, LOC = loss of consciousness, MA = Massachusetts, MN = Minnesota,
MS = multiple sclerosis, MTBI = mild traumatic brain injury, MVA = motor vehicle accident, PCS = postconcussion syndrome, PD = Parkinson disease, PPCSC =
predictors of postconcussion symptom complex, PTA = posttraumatic amnesia, PTSD = posttraumatic stress disorder, TBI = traumatic brain injury, TCDB =
Traumatic Coma Databank, UK = United Kingdom, US = United States, VA = Veterans Affairs, VHIS = Vietnam Head Injury Study, WA = Washington.
.
165
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166 GULF WAR AND HEALTH
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