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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
Committee on the Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the Department of Commerce/CMRC under contract number DG133007SE5171. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Commerce/CMRC or any of its sub agencies.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-12432-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-12432-8
Copies of this report are available from the program office:
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-3512
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
COMMITTEE ON THE EVALUATION OF THE MULTIFUNCTION PHASED ARRAY RADAR PLANNING PROCESS
PAUL L. SMITH (Chair),
South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, South Dakota
JAMES FROST DAVIS,
The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, Virginia
EASTWOOD IM,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
JEFFREY K. LAZO,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
DAVID MCLAUGHLIN,
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
ROBERT PALMER,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
STEVEN A. RUTLEDGE,
Colorado State University, Fort Collins
SCOTT SANDGATHE,
University of Washington, Seattle
ROBERT J. SERAFIN,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MARILYN M. WOLFSON,
Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, Massachusetts
NRC Staff
CURTIS MARSHALL, Study Director
KATHERINE WELLER, Senior Program Assistant
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND (Chair),
University of California, Irvine
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RICHARD E. (RIT) CARBONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTEN DOW,
University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREGORY S. FORBES,
The Weather Channel, Atlanta, Georgia
ISAAC HELD,
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
ARTHUR LEE,
Chevron Corporation, San Francisco, California
KIRK R. SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
XUBIN XENG,
University of Arizona, Tucson
Ex Officio Members
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR.,
University of Maryland, College Park
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Program Officer
CURTIS H. MARSHALL, Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant
KATHERINE WELLER, Senior Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
Preface
In June 2006, the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) issued a report titled Federal Research and Development Needs and Priorities for Phased Array Radar, prepared by the Joint Action Group for Phased Array Radar Project (JAG/PARP). Recommendation 3 in the report called for the establishment of an interagency MPAR (multifunction phased array radar) Working Group and the identification of “opportunities for review of program plans and progress by appropriate boards or study committees of the National Academies’ National Research Council.” In the intervening two years, the Working Group has, among other activities, pursued investigations at the National Weather Radar Testbed in Norman, Oklahoma and conducted an MPAR Symposium in Norman in September 2007. Other planning activities have proceeded, and a pair of articles outlining the MPAR concept was published in the November 2007 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
In mid-2007 the OFCM, pursuant to the part of Recommendation 3 quoted above, tasked the NRC to carry out an evaluation of the MPAR planning process. The Committee on Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process was formed to carry out this task. The committee held three meetings in January-April 2008 to gather updated information about the MPAR planning and prepare this report. At the first meeting at the National Academies’ Keck Center in Washington, DC, the committee received overview briefings on the MPAR program and the JAG/PARP report. The committee also heard technical briefings on the potential benefits and challenges of a national MPAR system from federal and industrial scientists and engineers. At the second meeting at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) David Skaggs Center in Boulder, Colorado the committee heard additional briefings from prospective agency users of an MPAR system and technical briefings on some of the key hardware issues; they also began intensive work on this report. The third meeting, at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma was devoted entirely to work on the report.
The committee considered all of the input received at these meetings, as well as a variety of supplementary information about phased array radars and the MPAR program. The committee’s review highlighted significant technical and cost issues that need to be resolved to establish the viability of a national MPAR system that can satisfy requirements for aircraft and weather surveillance (and possibly other requirements not yet clearly defined). Prominent among the technical issues is whether phased array radar can provide the quantitative weather measurements (especially of polarimetric variables) needed to support current meteorological applications. Prominent among the cost issues is whether the cost of individual transmit-receive elements can be reduced enough to make array antennas involving many thousands of such elements affordable.
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
I express the thanks of the entire committee to the people who provided the briefings and who responded to our requests for additional information. The committee especially appreciates the briefings from developers of Radio Frequency technology, who helped to show us (especially the chairman, who hails from Missouri) that an affordable MPAR may be achievable. I hope that, in the short time available to carry out this evaluation, the committee has correctly understood the current status and plans for future activities and attained a reasonable perspective on what may become possible in the next few years.
I thank the members of the committee who contributed generously of their time and effort to carry out this evaluation of the broad MPAR program in a very short time period. Thanks also to our NRC support staff: Curtis Marshall, Study Director, and Katie Weller, Senior Program Assistant, who also worked long and hard on the committee’s activities. I look forward to the evolution of the MPAR concept and hope some day to see the end result of the program in service to the nation.
Paul L. Smith, Chair
Committee on the Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Dr. David Atlas, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
LT Richard Davidson, US Navy, Stennis Space Center, Mississippi
Dr. Elbert W. Friday, Jr., National Weather Service (retired), Norman, Oklahoma
Dr. R. Jeffrey Keeler, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Dr. John McCarthy, Aviation Weather Associates, Palm Desert, California
Dr. Richard Passarelli, Vaisala/Sigmet Corporation, Westford, Massachusetts
Dr. Matthias Steiner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. Kuo-Nan Liou, University of California, Los Angeles. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
Contents
SUMMARY
1
Principal Findings
1
Committee Recommendations
4
1
INTRODUCTION
7
2
OVERVIEW OF THE CURRENT NATIONAL RADAR SYSTEM
9
Weather Radar Networks
9
Aircraft Surveillance Radar Networks
11
Siting, Maintenance and Lifecycle Issues
11
Weather Radar Coverage
12
3
NEEDS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION SYSTEM
13
Multi-Agency Mission: Owners, Users, and Beneficiaries
13
Limitations of the Current Radar Network
16
Needs Versus Research
18
4
CAPABILITIES OF PHASED ARRAY RADAR
19
Capability for Rapid Update (Beam Multiplexing)
20
Adaptive Clutter Suppression
22
Crossbeam Wind Estimation
23
Elimination of Beam Smearing
23
Adaptive Sensing
23
Other Capabilities
24
Graceful Degradation
24
5
THE MPAR CONCEPT
26
Technical Challenges
28
Cost Issues
29
Capital Asset Planning
32
Acquisition Planning and Contracting
32
Comparison of Alternatives
33
6
THE MPAR PLANNING PROCESS
34
The JAG/PARP Report
34
MPAR Symposium
36
Developments to Date: Activities in NWRT
38
Developments to Date: 2007 Annual MPAR Statement and 2008 Plans
39
7
EVALUATION OF THE PLANNING PROCESS
41
Introduction
41
Purpose of the MPAR Planning Process
41
The MPAR Stakeholders
42
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Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process
External Pressures on Existing and Emerging MPAR Stakeholders
42
Need for Quantitative Requirements and Specifications for MPAR
43
Evaluation of the MPAR R&D Planning Process
46
Technical Issues
46
Cost Issues
50
Need for Complete Inclusion of all Associated System Costs
53
Cost-Benefit Analysis
53
8
FAMILY OF SYSTEMS
59
9
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
63
Principal Findings
63
Overarching Recommendation
64
REFERENCES
65
APPENDIXES
71
A Statement of Task
72
B Acronym List
73
C Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff
75
