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on still smaller scales as model resolutions increase, and process studies will be strongly integrated with models. In turn model improvements are likely to be strongly linked to the improved physical understanding of processes provided by such process studies. As model parameterizations become more physically based, they will incorporate fewer arbitrary dimensional constants. The remaining non-dimensional constants will be determined from a combination of observations, laboratory experiments and LES modeling. In this way model credibility will no longer be confined to one realization (e.g., the current climate) and simulations of both future and paleo scenarios will become more credible.

In the future, observational oceanography will likely make much greater use of models in planning of observing programs and interpretation of observational data. Real time communication between models and observing systems will become more important, for example, in using model predictions to guide intelligent observing platforms.


As global ocean modeling becomes both more interdisciplinary and higher resolution, questions such as the role of mesoscale eddies in biogeochemical cycles, air-sea interaction and climate will be able to be examined. New observations such as global measurements of the spatial and temporal variability of turbulent mixing, measurements of currents and mixing under ice sheets, and continuous measurements of the fluxes into and out of geostrophic eddies, will stimulate modeling studies of the role of the ocean on the ice sheets, and the importance of tidal mixing and mesoscale eddies to the global circulation. As models begin to employ parameterizations without tunable dimensional parameters they will be able to be applied to paleooceanographic problems such as deglaciation and CO2 variations. With a longer observational record, better coupled model initialization systems and higher resolution coupled models, we will have a much better, although probably still incomplete, understanding of the processes involved in decadal variability.


New trends in ocean modeling will require more recruits with training in computational fluid dynamics techniques, as well as software engineers who can develop the web interfaces to make models accessible to a broader user base. More scientists well versed in interdisciplinary work, at the interface between physical and biological oceanography, will be needed. At the same time the academic and research community will need to learn to communicate with applied scientists using models

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