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Deborah Glickson, Editor

Committee on Oceanography in 2025: A Workshop

Ocean Studies Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies



Washington, D.C.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001

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Deborah Glickson, Editor Committee on Oceanography in 2025: A Workshop Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. N00014-05-G-0288, TO 17 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of Naval Research. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organiza- tions or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-13745-4 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-13745-4 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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STEERING COMMITTEE ON OCEANOGRAPHY IN 2025: A WORKSHOP DANIEL L. RUDNICK (Chair), Scripps Institution of Oceanography ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (ret.) MARY JANE PERRY, University of Maine Staff DEBORAH GLICKSON, Study Director HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant 

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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD SHIRLEY A. POMPONI (Chair), Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, Ft. Pierce, Florida MARCIA K. MCNUTT (Chair beginning 3/1/2009), Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California DONALD F. BOESCH, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge JORGE E. CORREDOR, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez KEITH R. CRIDDLE, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas DEBRA HERNANDEZ, Hernandez and Company, Isle of Palms, South Carolina ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University, Corvallis KIHO KIM, American University, Washington, DC BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York ROBERT A. LAWSON, Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (ret.), Port Angeles, Washington ANDREW A. ROSENBERG, University of New Hampshire, Durham DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ANNE M. TREHU, Oregon State University, Corvallis PETER L. TYACK, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts DAWN J. WRIGHT, Oregon State University, Corvallis JAMES A. YODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts OSB Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Director CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer SUSAN PARK, Program Officer JODI BOSTROM, Associate Program Officer DEBORAH GLICKSON, Associate Program Officer SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant JEREMY JUSTICE, Program Assistant i

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Preface On January 8 and 9, 2009, the Ocean Studies Board of the National Research Council (NRC), in response to a request from the Office of Naval Research, hosted the “Oceanography in 2025” workshop. The goal of the workshop was to bring together scientists, engineers, and technologists to explore future directions in oceanography, with an emphasis on physical processes. The focus centered on research and technology needs, trends, and barriers that may impact the field of oceanography over the next 16 years, and highlighted specific areas of interest: submesoscale processes, air-sea interactions, basic and applied research, instrumentation and vehi- cles, ocean infrastructure, and education. To guide the white papers and drive discussions, four questions were posed to participants: • What research questions could be answered? • What will remain unanswered? • What new technologies could be developed? • How will research be conducted? Four keynote speakers, chosen for their diversity of opinions, pre- sented their vision of future needs in oceanography from observation, modeling, and/or societal viewpoints. We wish to thank Dr. Chris Garrett, University of Victoria; Dr. Russ Davis, Scripps Institution of Oceanog- raphy; Dr. Kelly Benoit-Bird, Oregon State University; and Dr. Raffaele Ferrari, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In addition, we wish to ii

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iii PREFACE thank Rear Admiral David Titley, Commander of the Naval Meteorol- ogy and Oceanography Command, for his introductory comments to the workshop participants. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro- cedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as accurate as possible and to ensure that the content of the proceedings is relevant to the workshop. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank our reviewers for the time and effort they put into this review. We also wish to thank Cheryl Logan, NRC Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow, for her work copyedit- ing this document. The workshop proceedings should not be confused with a National Academies consensus report. The proceedings do not contain findings or recommendations endorsed by the National Academies or the National Research Council. Any advice, findings, conclusions, or recommendations in these proceedings are strictly those of the author(s) and do not reflect consensus of the workshop participants. The agenda and participant list are reprinted in Appendixes A and B, respectively.

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Contents Introduction and Goals 1 Linwood Vincent Integrated Oceanography in 2025 3 John J. Cullen Oceanography in 2028 6 Mark Abbott The Changing Relationship Between Humans and the Ocean 11 J. G. Bellingham Societal Implications for Ocean Research in 2025 14 Matthew Alford Oceanography in 2025: Responding to Growing Populations on a Rapidly Changing Planet 17 Scott Glenn Some Thoughts on Physical Oceanography in 2025 22 Ken Melille The Next-Generation Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean-Ice-Land Models for Ocean Research and Prediction 26 Shuyi S. Chen ix

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x CONTENTS Science in Action, Episode 1: Exploring Boundaries 28 Meghan F. Cronin Real Time Decision Support Everywhere 31 Nathaniel G. Plant Trends in Oceanography: More Data, More People, More Relevance 36 J. Thomson Future Developments to Observational Physical Oceanography 39 Tom Sanford Prospects for Oceanography in 2025 43 Michael Gregg Oceanography in 2025 46 John Orcutt Thoughts on Oceanography in 2025 49 Daniel Rudnick The Role of Observations in the Future of Oceanography 52 Raffaele Ferrari The Future . . . One More Time 55 Rob Pinkel The Role of Acoustics in Ocean Observing Systems 58 Peter Worcester and Walter Munk Oceanography in 2025 63 Walter Munk Physical Oceanography in 2025 65 Chris Garrett A Vision of Future Physical Oceanography Research 68 James J. O’Brien Some Thoughts on Logistics, Mixing, and Power 70 J. N. Moum Ageostrophic Circulation in the Ocean 73 Peter Niiler

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xi CONTENTS The Future of Ocean Modeling 77 Sonya Legg, Alistair Adcroft, Whit Anderson, V. Balaji, John Dunne, Stephen Griffies, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Isaac Held, Tony Rosati, Robbie Toggweiler, Geoff Vallis, Laurent White Towards Nonhydrostatic Ocean Modeling with Large-eddy Simulation 81 Olier B. Fringer Simulations of Marine Turbulence and Surface Waves: Potential Impacts of Petascale Technology 84 Peter P. Sullian Computational Simulation and Submesoscale Variability 89 James C. McWilliams Ocean Measurements from Space in 2025 92 A. Freeman Future of Nearshore Processes Research 98 Rob Holman Future Directions in Nearshore Oceanography 101 H. Tuba Özkan-Haller Science Strategies for the Arctic Ocean 104 Mary-Louise Timmermans Submesoscale Variability of the Upper Ocean: Patchy and Episodic Fluxes Into and Through Biologically Active Layers 107 Daniel Rudnick, Mary Jane Perry, John J. Cullen, Bess Ward, Kenneth S. Johnson Who’s Blooming? Toward an Understanding of Why Certain Species Dominate Phytoplankton Blooms 111 Mary Jane Perry, Michael Sieracki, Bess Ward, Alan Weidemann Understanding Phytoplankton Bloom Development 115 Bess Ward and Mary Jane Perry From Short Food Chains to Complex Interaction Webs: Biological Oceanography in 2025 118 Kelly J. Benoit-Bird The Interface between Biological and Physical Processes 121 Mark Abbott

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xii CONTENTS Research on Higher Trophic Levels 124 Daniel P. Costa, Yann Tremblay, Sean Hayes Marine Biogeochemistry in 2025 130 Kenneth S. Johnson Next-generation Oceanographic Sensors for Short-Term Prediction/ Verification of In-water Optical Conditions 135 Mark L. Wells Evolution of Autonomous Platform for Sustained Ocean Observations 138 Russ E. Dais Toward an Interdisciplinary Ocean Observing System in 2025 141 Eric D’Asaro Small Scale Ocean Dynamics in 2025 144 Jonathan Nash Oceanography in 2025 146 Dana R. Yoerger The Research Vessel Problem 150 J.N. Moum, Eric D’Asaro, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Peter Niiler “Ocean Mapping” in 2025 153 Larry Mayer Seismic Oceanography: Imaging Oceanic Finestructure with Reflection Seismology 157 W. Steen Holbrook The Ocean Planet 2.0: A Vision for 2025 163 Justin Manley Force Projection Through the Littoral Zone: Optical Considerations 166 Kendall Carder Large Scale Phase-resolved Simulations of Ocean Surface Waves 171 Yuming Liu and Dick K.P. Yue Appendix A: Workshop Agenda 179 Appendix B: Workshop Participants 181