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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop OCEANOGRAPHY IN 2025 PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP Deborah Glickson, Editor Committee on Oceanography in 2025: A Workshop Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. N00014-05-G-0288, TO 17 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of Naval Research. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-13745-4 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-13745-4 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop STEERING COMMITTEE ON OCEANOGRAPHY IN 2025: A WORKSHOP DANIEL L. RUDNICK (Chair), Scripps Institution of Oceanography ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (ret.) MARY JANE PERRY, University of Maine Staff DEBORAH GLICKSON, Study Director HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop OCEAN STUDIES BOARD SHIRLEY A. POMPONI (Chair), Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, Ft. Pierce, Florida MARCIA K. MCNUTT (Chair beginning 3/1/2009), Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California DONALD F. BOESCH, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge JORGE E. CORREDOR, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez KEITH R. CRIDDLE, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas DEBRA HERNANDEZ, Hernandez and Company, Isle of Palms, South Carolina ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University, Corvallis KIHO KIM, American University, Washington, DC BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York ROBERT A. LAWSON, Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (ret.), Port Angeles, Washington ANDREW A. ROSENBERG, University of New Hampshire, Durham DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ANNE M. TREHU, Oregon State University, Corvallis PETER L. TYACK, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts DAWN J. WRIGHT, Oregon State University, Corvallis JAMES A. YODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts OSB Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Director CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer SUSAN PARK, Program Officer JODI BOSTROM, Associate Program Officer DEBORAH GLICKSON, Associate Program Officer SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant JEREMY JUSTICE, Program Assistant
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop Preface On January 8 and 9, 2009, the Ocean Studies Board of the National Research Council (NRC), in response to a request from the Office of Naval Research, hosted the “Oceanography in 2025” workshop. The goal of the workshop was to bring together scientists, engineers, and technologists to explore future directions in oceanography, with an emphasis on physical processes. The focus centered on research and technology needs, trends, and barriers that may impact the field of oceanography over the next 16 years, and highlighted specific areas of interest: submesoscale processes, air-sea interactions, basic and applied research, instrumentation and vehicles, ocean infrastructure, and education. To guide the white papers and drive discussions, four questions were posed to participants: What research questions could be answered? What will remain unanswered? What new technologies could be developed? How will research be conducted? Four keynote speakers, chosen for their diversity of opinions, presented their vision of future needs in oceanography from observation, modeling, and/or societal viewpoints. We wish to thank Dr. Chris Garrett, University of Victoria; Dr. Russ Davis, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Dr. Kelly Benoit-Bird, Oregon State University; and Dr. Raffaele Ferrari, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In addition, we wish to
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop thank Rear Admiral David Titley, Commander of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, for his introductory comments to the workshop participants. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as accurate as possible and to ensure that the content of the proceedings is relevant to the workshop. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank our reviewers for the time and effort they put into this review. We also wish to thank Cheryl Logan, NRC Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow, for her work copyediting this document. The workshop proceedings should not be confused with a National Academies consensus report. The proceedings do not contain findings or recommendations endorsed by the National Academies or the National Research Council. Any advice, findings, conclusions, or recommendations in these proceedings are strictly those of the author(s) and do not reflect consensus of the workshop participants. The agenda and participant list are reprinted in Appendixes A and B, respectively.
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop Contents Introduction and Goals Linwood Vincent 1 Integrated Oceanography in 2025 John J. Cullen 3 Oceanography in 2028 Mark Abbott 6 The Changing Relationship Between Humans and the Ocean J. G. Bellingham 11 Societal Implications for Ocean Research in 2025 Matthew Alford 14 Oceanography in 2025: Responding to Growing Populations on a Rapidly Changing Planet Scott Glenn 17 Some Thoughts on Physical Oceanography in 2025 Ken Melville 22 The Next-Generation Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean-Ice-Land Models for Ocean Research and Prediction Shuyi S. Chen 26
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop Science in Action, Episode 1: Exploring Boundaries Meghan F. Cronin 28 Real Time Decision Support Everywhere Nathaniel G. Plant 31 Trends in Oceanography: More Data, More People, More Relevance J. Thomson 36 Future Developments to Observational Physical Oceanography Tom Sanford 39 Prospects for Oceanography in 2025 Michael Gregg 43 Oceanography in 2025 John Orcutt 46 Thoughts on Oceanography in 2025 Daniel Rudnick 49 The Role of Observations in the Future of Oceanography Raffaele Ferrari 52 The Future … One More Time Rob Pinkel 55 The Role of Acoustics in Ocean Observing Systems Peter Worcester and Walter Munk 58 Oceanography in 2025 Walter Munk 63 Physical Oceanography in 2025 Chris Garrett 65 A Vision of Future Physical Oceanography Research James J. O’Brien 68 Some Thoughts on Logistics, Mixing, and Power J. N. Moum 70 Ageostrophic Circulation in the Ocean Peter Niiler 73
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop The Future of Ocean Modeling Sonya Legg, Alistair Adcroft, Whit Anderson, V. Balaji, John Dunne, Stephen Griffies, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Isaac Held, Tony Rosati, Robbie Toggweiler, Geoff Vallis, Laurent White 77 Towards Nonhydrostatic Ocean Modeling with Large-eddy Simulation Oliver B. Fringer 81 Simulations of Marine Turbulence and Surface Waves: Potential Impacts of Petascale Technology Peter P. Sullivan 84 Computational Simulation and Submesoscale Variability James C. McWilliams 89 Ocean Measurements from Space in 2025 A. Freeman 92 Future of Nearshore Processes Research Rob Holman 98 Future Directions in Nearshore Oceanography H. Tuba Özkan-Haller 101 Science Strategies for the Arctic Ocean Mary-Louise Timmermans 104 Submesoscale Variability of the Upper Ocean: Patchy and Episodic Fluxes Into and Through Biologically Active Layers Daniel Rudnick, Mary Jane Perry, John J. Cullen, Bess Ward, Kenneth S. Johnson 107 Who’s Blooming? Toward an Understanding of Why Certain Species Dominate Phytoplankton Blooms Mary Jane Perry, Michael Sieracki, Bess Ward, Alan Weidemann 111 Understanding Phytoplankton Bloom Development Bess Ward and Mary Jane Perry 115 From Short Food Chains to Complex Interaction Webs: Biological Oceanography in 2025 Kelly J. Benoit-Bird 118 The Interface between Biological and Physical Processes Mark Abbott 121
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop Research on Higher Trophic Levels Daniel P. Costa, Yann Tremblay, Sean Hayes 124 Marine Biogeochemistry in 2025 Kenneth S. Johnson 130 Next-generation Oceanographic Sensors for Short-Term Prediction/Verification of In-water Optical Conditions Mark L. Wells 135 Evolution of Autonomous Platform for Sustained Ocean Observations Russ E. Davis 138 Toward an Interdisciplinary Ocean Observing System in 2025 Eric D’Asaro 141 Small Scale Ocean Dynamics in 2025 Jonathan Nash 144 Oceanography in 2025 Dana R. Yoerger 146 The Research Vessel Problem J.N. Moum, Eric D’Asaro, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Peter Niiler 150 “Ocean Mapping” in 2025 Larry Mayer 153 Seismic Oceanography: Imaging Oceanic Finestructure with Reflection Seismology W. Steven Holbrook 157 The Ocean Planet 2.0: A Vision for 2025 Justin Manley 163 Force Projection Through the Littoral Zone: Optical Considerations Kendall Carder 166 Large Scale Phase-resolved Simulations of Ocean Surface Waves Yuming Liu and Dick K.P. Yue 171 Appendix A: Workshop Agenda 179 Appendix B: Workshop Participants 181