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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
OCEANOGRAPHY IN 2025
PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP
Deborah Glickson, Editor
Committee on Oceanography in 2025: A Workshop
Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. N00014-05-G-0288, TO 17 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of Naval Research. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-13745-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-13745-4
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
STEERING COMMITTEE ON OCEANOGRAPHY IN 2025: A WORKSHOP
DANIEL L. RUDNICK (Chair),
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
ROBERT A. HOLMAN,
Oregon State University
JAY S. PEARLMAN,
The Boeing Company (ret.)
MARY JANE PERRY,
University of Maine
Staff
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Study Director
HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
SHIRLEY A. POMPONI (Chair),
Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, Ft. Pierce, Florida
MARCIA K. MCNUTT (Chair beginning 3/1/2009),
Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California
DONALD F. BOESCH,
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge
JORGE E. CORREDOR,
University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez
KEITH R. CRIDDLE,
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau
MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY,
ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas
DEBRA HERNANDEZ,
Hernandez and Company, Isle of Palms, South Carolina
ROBERT A. HOLMAN,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
KIHO KIM,
American University, Washington, DC
BARBARA A. KNUTH,
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
ROBERT A. LAWSON,
Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California
GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO,
Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California
JAY S. PEARLMAN,
The Boeing Company (ret.), Port Angeles, Washington
ANDREW A. ROSENBERG,
University of New Hampshire, Durham
DANIEL L. RUDNICK,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
ROBERT J. SERAFIN,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ANNE M. TREHU,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
PETER L. TYACK,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
DAWN J. WRIGHT,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
JAMES A. YODER,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
OSB Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Program Officer
SUSAN PARK, Program Officer
JODI BOSTROM, Associate Program Officer
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Associate Program Officer
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant
JEREMY JUSTICE, Program Assistant
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
Preface
On January 8 and 9, 2009, the Ocean Studies Board of the National Research Council (NRC), in response to a request from the Office of Naval Research, hosted the “Oceanography in 2025” workshop. The goal of the workshop was to bring together scientists, engineers, and technologists to explore future directions in oceanography, with an emphasis on physical processes. The focus centered on research and technology needs, trends, and barriers that may impact the field of oceanography over the next 16 years, and highlighted specific areas of interest: submesoscale processes, air-sea interactions, basic and applied research, instrumentation and vehicles, ocean infrastructure, and education.
To guide the white papers and drive discussions, four questions were posed to participants:
What research questions could be answered?
What will remain unanswered?
What new technologies could be developed?
How will research be conducted?
Four keynote speakers, chosen for their diversity of opinions, presented their vision of future needs in oceanography from observation, modeling, and/or societal viewpoints. We wish to thank Dr. Chris Garrett, University of Victoria; Dr. Russ Davis, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Dr. Kelly Benoit-Bird, Oregon State University; and Dr. Raffaele Ferrari, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In addition, we wish to
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
thank Rear Admiral David Titley, Commander of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, for his introductory comments to the workshop participants.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as accurate as possible and to ensure that the content of the proceedings is relevant to the workshop. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank our reviewers for the time and effort they put into this review. We also wish to thank Cheryl Logan, NRC Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow, for her work copyediting this document.
The workshop proceedings should not be confused with a National Academies consensus report. The proceedings do not contain findings or recommendations endorsed by the National Academies or the National Research Council. Any advice, findings, conclusions, or recommendations in these proceedings are strictly those of the author(s) and do not reflect consensus of the workshop participants.
The agenda and participant list are reprinted in Appendixes A and B, respectively.
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
Contents
Introduction and Goals
Linwood Vincent
1
Integrated Oceanography in 2025
John J. Cullen
3
Oceanography in 2028
Mark Abbott
6
The Changing Relationship Between Humans and the Ocean
J. G. Bellingham
11
Societal Implications for Ocean Research in 2025
Matthew Alford
14
Oceanography in 2025: Responding to Growing Populations on a Rapidly Changing Planet
Scott Glenn
17
Some Thoughts on Physical Oceanography in 2025
Ken Melville
22
The Next-Generation Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean-Ice-Land Models for Ocean Research and Prediction
Shuyi S. Chen
26
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
Science in Action, Episode 1: Exploring Boundaries
Meghan F. Cronin
28
Real Time Decision Support Everywhere
Nathaniel G. Plant
31
Trends in Oceanography: More Data, More People, More Relevance
J. Thomson
36
Future Developments to Observational Physical Oceanography
Tom Sanford
39
Prospects for Oceanography in 2025
Michael Gregg
43
Oceanography in 2025
John Orcutt
46
Thoughts on Oceanography in 2025
Daniel Rudnick
49
The Role of Observations in the Future of Oceanography
Raffaele Ferrari
52
The Future … One More Time
Rob Pinkel
55
The Role of Acoustics in Ocean Observing Systems
Peter Worcester and Walter Munk
58
Oceanography in 2025
Walter Munk
63
Physical Oceanography in 2025
Chris Garrett
65
A Vision of Future Physical Oceanography Research
James J. O’Brien
68
Some Thoughts on Logistics, Mixing, and Power
J. N. Moum
70
Ageostrophic Circulation in the Ocean
Peter Niiler
73
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
The Future of Ocean Modeling
Sonya Legg, Alistair Adcroft, Whit Anderson, V. Balaji, John Dunne, Stephen Griffies, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Isaac Held, Tony Rosati, Robbie Toggweiler, Geoff Vallis, Laurent White
77
Towards Nonhydrostatic Ocean Modeling with Large-eddy Simulation
Oliver B. Fringer
81
Simulations of Marine Turbulence and Surface Waves: Potential Impacts of Petascale Technology
Peter P. Sullivan
84
Computational Simulation and Submesoscale Variability
James C. McWilliams
89
Ocean Measurements from Space in 2025
A. Freeman
92
Future of Nearshore Processes Research
Rob Holman
98
Future Directions in Nearshore Oceanography
H. Tuba Özkan-Haller
101
Science Strategies for the Arctic Ocean
Mary-Louise Timmermans
104
Submesoscale Variability of the Upper Ocean: Patchy and Episodic Fluxes Into and Through Biologically Active Layers
Daniel Rudnick, Mary Jane Perry, John J. Cullen, Bess Ward, Kenneth S. Johnson
107
Who’s Blooming? Toward an Understanding of Why Certain Species Dominate Phytoplankton Blooms
Mary Jane Perry, Michael Sieracki, Bess Ward, Alan Weidemann
111
Understanding Phytoplankton Bloom Development
Bess Ward and Mary Jane Perry
115
From Short Food Chains to Complex Interaction Webs: Biological Oceanography in 2025
Kelly J. Benoit-Bird
118
The Interface between Biological and Physical Processes
Mark Abbott
121
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Oceanography in 2025: Proceedings of a Workshop
Research on Higher Trophic Levels
Daniel P. Costa, Yann Tremblay, Sean Hayes
124
Marine Biogeochemistry in 2025
Kenneth S. Johnson
130
Next-generation Oceanographic Sensors for Short-Term Prediction/Verification of In-water Optical Conditions
Mark L. Wells
135
Evolution of Autonomous Platform for Sustained Ocean Observations
Russ E. Davis
138
Toward an Interdisciplinary Ocean Observing System in 2025
Eric D’Asaro
141
Small Scale Ocean Dynamics in 2025
Jonathan Nash
144
Oceanography in 2025
Dana R. Yoerger
146
The Research Vessel Problem
J.N. Moum, Eric D’Asaro, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Peter Niiler
150
“Ocean Mapping” in 2025
Larry Mayer
153
Seismic Oceanography: Imaging Oceanic Finestructure with Reflection Seismology
W. Steven Holbrook
157
The Ocean Planet 2.0: A Vision for 2025
Justin Manley
163
Force Projection Through the Littoral Zone: Optical Considerations
Kendall Carder
166
Large Scale Phase-resolved Simulations of Ocean Surface Waves
Yuming Liu and Dick K.P. Yue
171
Appendix A: Workshop Agenda
179
Appendix B: Workshop Participants
181
