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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
FORGING THE FUTURE OF SPACE SCIENCE
THE NEXT 50 YEARS
An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
Space Studies Board
and
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This project was supported by Contract NNH06CE15B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and private funding from the National Research Council. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-13946-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-13946-5
Copies of this report are available free of charge from:
Space Studies Board
National Research Council
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
Other Reports of the Space Studies Board and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (Space Studies Board [SSB] with the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2009)
Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2009)
Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Mars Sample Return Missions (SSB, 2009)
Fostering Visions for the Future: A Review of the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (ASEB, 2009)
Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2009)
A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Heliophysics Program (SSB, 2009)
Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2009)
Assessing the Research and Development Plan for the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Summary of a Workshop (ASEB, 2008)
A Constrained Space Exploration Technology Program: A Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program (ASEB, 2008)
Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring (SSB, 2008)
Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2008 Engineering Research and Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2008)
Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2008 Ohio Research Scholars Program of the State of Ohio (ASEB, 2008)
Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA’s Constellation System (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Managing Space Radiation Risk in the New Era of Space Exploration (ASEB, 2008)
NASA Aeronautics Research: An Assessment (ASEB, 2008)
Opening New Frontiers in Space: Choices for the Next New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity (SSB, 2008)
Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program: An Interim Report (ASEB, 2008)
Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2008)
Space Science and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2008)
United States Civil Space Policy: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Wake Turbulence: An Obstacle to Increased Air Traffic Capacity (ASEB, 2008)
Assessment of the NASA Astrobiology Institute (SSB, 2007)
An Astrobiology Strategy for the Exploration of Mars (SSB with the Board on Life Sciences [BLS], 2007)
Building a Better NASA Workforce: Meeting the Workforce Needs for the National Vision for Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2007)
Decadal Science Strategy Surveys: Report of a Workshop (SSB, 2007)
Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (SSB, 2007)
Exploring Organic Environments in the Solar System (SSB with the Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, 2007)
Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Review (SSB, 2007)
The Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems (SSB with BLS, 2007)
NASA’s Beyond Einstein Program: An Architecture for Implementation (SSB with the Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA], 2007)
Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2007)
A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Astrophysics Program (SSB with BPA, 2007)
Portals to the Universe: The NASA Astronomy Science Centers (SSB, 2007)
The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon (SSB, 2007)
Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from
Space Studies Board
National Research Council
The Keck Center of the National Academies
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-3477/ssb@nas.edu
www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
SPACE STUDIES BOARD
CHARLES F. KENNEL,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego,
Chair
A. THOMAS YOUNG,
Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired),
Vice Chair
DANIEL N. BAKER,
University of Colorado
STEVEN J. BATTEL,
Battel Engineering
CHARLES L. BENNETT,
Johns Hopkins University
YVONNE C. BRILL,
Aerospace Consultant
ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN,
Dixie State College and Aerospace Corporation
ALAN DRESSLER,
The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution
JACK D. FELLOWS,
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
FIONA A. HARRISON,
California Institute of Technology
JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE,
Naval War College
KLAUS KEIL,
University of Hawaii
MOLLY K. MACAULEY,
Resources for the Future
BERRIEN MOORE III,
University of New Hampshire
ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
JAMES PAWELCZYK,
Pennsylvania State University
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN,
University of California, Irvine
JOAN VERNIKOS,
Thirdage LLC
JOSEPH F. VEVERKA,
Cornell University
WARREN M. WASHINGTON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research
CHARLES E. WOODWARD,
University of Minnesota
ELLEN G. ZWEIBEL,
University of Wisconsin
Staff
RICHARD E. ROWBERG, Interim Board Director (from March 2, 2009)
MARCIA S. SMITH, Director (until March 2, 2009)
BRANT SPONBERG, Associate Director and Senior Program Officer
BARBARA S. AKINWOLE, Information Management Associate (to October 2008)
JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Senior Program Officer
TERRI BAKER, Senior Program Assistant
CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator
ARTHUR A. CHARO, Senior Program Officer
DWAYNE A. DAY, Program Officer
BRIAN D. DEWHURST,* Program Officer (to August 2009)
THERESA M. FISHER, Program Associate (to May 15, 2009)
SANDRA J. GRAHAM, Senior Program Officer
LEWIS GROSWALD, Research Associate
CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor
RODNEY N. HOWARD, Senior Project Assistant
*
Staff of another NRC Board who are shared with the SSB.
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate
TANJA E. PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations
IAN W. PRYKE, Senior Program Officer
ROBERT L. RIEMER,* Senior Program Officer
ABIGAIL SHEFFER, Senior Program Associate/Associate Program Officer
CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer
DAVID H. SMITH, Senior Program Officer
VICTORIA SWISHER, Research Associate (through July 2009)
LINDA WALKER, Senior Project Assistant
SANDRA WILSON, Senior Financial Assistant
DIONNA WILLIAMS, Program Associate
Consultants
IAN W. PRYKE, Seminar Series Project Director
DIANA ALEXANDER, Seminar Series Events Coordinator
*
Staff of another NRC Board who are shared with the SSB.
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHAIRS AND VICE-CHAIRS
2008–Present
Charles Kennel, Chair
A. Thomas Young, Vice Chair (2008–Present)
2003–2008
Lennard A. Fisk, Chair
Thomas Young, Vice Chair (2006–2008)
George A. Paulikas, Vice Chair (2003–2006)
2000–2003
John H. McElroy, Chair
1994–2000
Claude R. Canizares, Chair
1989–1994
Louis J. Lanzerotti, Chair
1982–1988
Thomas M. Donahue, Chair
1977–1982
A.G.W. Cameron, Chair
1974–1976
Richard M. Goody, Chair
1970–1973
Charles H. Townes, Chair
1962–1969
Harry H. Hess, Chair
1958–1962
Lloyd V. Berkner, Chair
SPACE STUDIES BOARD DIRECTORS
2009–present
Richard E. Rowberg, Interim Director
2006–2009
Marcia S. Smith (until March 2, 2009)
2005–2006
Tamara L. Dickinson (Acting)
1998–2005
Joseph K. Alexander
1990–1997
Marc S. Allen
1982–1989
Dean P. Kastel
1976–1982
Bruce N. Gregory
1974–1976
Milton W. Rosen
1958–1974
Hugh Odishaw
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
Acknowledgments
This series was made possible by the generous support of the following sponsors:
The National Academies
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
The Aerospace Corporation
ATK—Alliant Techsystems Inc.
Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corporatoin
The Boeing Company
Lockheed Martin Corporation
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Orbital Sciences Corporation
We are also indebted to the co-sponsors who assisted in the promotion of the series both nationally and in the various event locations:
American Astronautical Society
American Astronomical Society
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
COSPAR—Committee on Space Research
International Space University
National Space Society
The Planetary Society
Finally, our thanks to our local co-hosts for their invaluable assistance with local organization and promotion:
Committee on Space Research
Florida State and Florida A&M Challenger Learning Center
Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder
The National Academies
National Space Science and Technology Center
Space Telescope Science Institute
University of California at Irvine
University of New Hampshire
University of Texas at Austin
West Virginia High Technology Consortium Foundation
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
Preface
Certain events in human history warrant commemorative celebrations. One of these is the International Geophysical Year (IGY) of 1957–1958 during which scientists from 66 countries coordinated their studies of the Earth, including the first measurements from artificial Earth satellites. With the launch of these first satellites, the Space Age began.
The Space Studies Board (SSB) was created on June 26, 1958, by the National Academy of Sciences as a result of the IGY and the launch of the first U.S. satellites. The SSB’s mandate is to provide advice to the government on priorities in space science research and related issues. It seems fitting then that the SSB should celebrate the 50th anniversary of the IGY, and recognize and marvel in all of the science that has been accomplished during the past 50 years and look forward to the discoveries that await us in the next 50 years. Hence, the SSB conducted, from September 2007 to June 2008, an international public seminar series, with each monthly talk highlighting a different topic in space and Earth science. The principal lectures from the series are compiled in this book. The series culminated in June 2008 with a celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Space Studies Board itself.
The seminar series involved eight half-day events held in various locations around the United States and one in Paris (home of the international Committee on Space Research), and two all-day colloquia held at the National Academies’ Beckman Center in Irvine, California, and at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C. The half-day events began with panel discussions by local scientists who spoke on the research they have underway and the promise it holds. These events then concluded with a public lecture by an internationally prominent scientist. The all-day colloquia consisted of lectures and panel discussions by international scientists and space officials. The topics of these events covered the full spectrum of space and Earth science research, from global climate change, to the cosmic origins of life, to the exploration of the Moon and Mars, to the scientific research required to support human spaceflight. All of these lectures and panel discussions were Web-cast and were available on the SSB Web site.
The seminar and colloquia series culminated on June 26, 2008, with an evening reception at the Smithsonian Institution’s National Air and Space Museum to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the SSB. At this event, Frank B. McDonald delivered the first Space Studies Board James A. Van Allen Lecture, entitled “Explorer 1: Gateway to the Never Ending Wonders of Space Science.”
The SSB is very grateful to the many sponsors who made this outstanding series of events possible, beginning with the presidents of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. NASA was a major sponsor of the series, and we also are grateful to the Aerospace Corporation, ATK, Ball Aerospace, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Orbital for their financial support. We are especially grateful to the Richard Lounsbery Foundation for its sponsorship of the Space Studies Board James A. Van Allen Lecture.
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
The prevailing messages throughout the seminar series as demonstrated by the lectures in this book are how much we have accomplished over the past 50 years, how profound are our discoveries, how much contributions from the space program affect our daily lives, and yet how much remains to be done. The age of discovery in space and Earth science is just beginning. Opportunities abound that will forever alter our destiny.
L.A. Fisk
Chair, Space Studies Board (2003–2008)
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
Contents
1
FROM THE BIG BANG TO THE NOBEL PRIZE AND ON TO THE JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE
John C. Mather, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
3
2
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN CAUSES
Ralph J. Cicerone, National Academy of Sciences
23
3
SCIENCE GOES TO THE MOON AND PLANETS: CELEBRATING 50 YEARS SINCE THE IGY
Wesley T. Huntress, Jr., Carnegie Institution of Washington
41
4
LEAVING THE PLANET—SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESULTS ON THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
Carl E. Walz, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
61
5
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFE ELSEWHERE IN THE UNIVERSE
Christopher F. Chyba, Princeton University
77
6
UNDERSTANDING THE POLES OF EARTH, THE MOON, AND MARS
Christopher Rapley, National Museum of Science and Industry, London, England
91
7
VOYAGER’S JOURNEY TO THE EDGE OF INTERSTELLAR SPACE
Edward C. Stone, California Institute of Technology
109
8
FUTURE OF SPACE AND EARTH ROBOTIC EXPLORATION: SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Charles Elachi, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
119
9
EXPLORER 1: GATEWAY TO THE NEVER ENDING WONDERS OF SPACE SCIENCE
The Space Studies Board Van Allen Lecture delivered by Frank B. McDonald, Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland
127
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Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years - An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures
APPENDIXES
A The International Geophysical Year
147
B The Space Studies Board
149
C Program of Public Events
151
