FORGING THE FUTURE OF SPACE SCIENCE

THE NEXT 50 YEARS

An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures

Space Studies Board

and

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
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FORGING THE FUTURE OF SPACE SCIENCE THE NEXT 50 YEARS An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures Space Studies Board and Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This project was supported by Contract NNH06CE15B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and private funding from the National Research Council. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-13946-5 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-13946-5 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advis- ing the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Other Reports of the Space Studies Board and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (Space Studies Board [SSB] with the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2009) Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Mars Sample Return Missions (SSB, 2009) Fostering Visions for the Future: A Review of the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (ASEB, 2009) Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2009) A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Heliophysics Program (SSB, 2009) Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Assessing the Research and Development Plan for the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Summary of a Workshop (ASEB, 2008) A Constrained Space Exploration Technology Program: A Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program (ASEB, 2008) Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring (SSB, 2008) Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2008 Engineering Research and Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2008) Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2008 Ohio Research Scholars Program of the State of Ohio (ASEB, 2008) Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA’s Constellation System (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Managing Space Radiation Risk in the New Era of Space Exploration (ASEB, 2008) NASA Aeronautics Research: An Assessment (ASEB, 2008) Opening New Frontiers in Space: Choices for the Next New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity (SSB, 2008) Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program: An Interim Report (ASEB, 2008) Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2008) Space Science and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2008) United States Civil Space Policy: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Wake Turbulence: An Obstacle to Increased Air Traffic Capacity (ASEB, 2008) Assessment of the NASA Astrobiology Institute (SSB, 2007) An Astrobiology Strategy for the Exploration of Mars (SSB with the Board on Life Sciences [BLS], 2007) Building a Better NASA Workforce: Meeting the Workforce Needs for the National Vision for Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2007) Decadal Science Strategy Surveys: Report of a Workshop (SSB, 2007) Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (SSB, 2007) Exploring Organic Environments in the Solar System (SSB with the Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, 2007) Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Review (SSB, 2007) The Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems (SSB with BLS, 2007) NASA’s Beyond Einstein Program: An Architecture for Implementation (SSB with the Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA], 2007) Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2007) A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Astrophysics Program (SSB with BPA, 2007) Portals to the Universe: The NASA Astronomy Science Centers (SSB, 2007) The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon (SSB, 2007) Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3477/ssb@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired), Vice Chair DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering CHARLES L. BENNETT, Johns Hopkins University YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN, Dixie State College and Aerospace Corporation ALAN DRESSLER, The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution JACK D. FELLOWS, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, Naval War College KLAUS KEIL, University of Hawaii MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology JAMES PAWELCZYK, Pennsylvania State University SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of California, Irvine JOAN VERNIKOS, Thirdage LLC JOSEPH F. VEVERKA, Cornell University WARREN M. WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research CHARLES E. WOODWARD, University of Minnesota ELLEN G. ZWEIBEL, University of Wisconsin Staff RICHARD E. ROWBERG, Interim Board Director (from March 2, 2009) MARCIA S. SMITH, Director (until March 2, 2009) BRANT SPONBERG, Associate Director and Senior Program Officer BARBARA S. AKINWOLE, Information Management Associate (to October 2008) JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Senior Program Officer TERRI BAKER, Senior Program Assistant CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator ARTHUR A. CHARO, Senior Program Officer DWAYNE A. DAY, Program Officer BRIAN D. DEWHURST,* Program Officer (to August 2009) THERESA M. FISHER, Program Associate (to May 15, 2009) SANDRA J. GRAHAM, Senior Program Officer LEWIS GROSWALD, Research Associate CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor RODNEY N. HOWARD, Senior Project Assistant *Staff of another NRC Board who are shared with the SSB. 

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CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate TANJA E. PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations IAN W. PRYKE, Senior Program Officer ROBERT L. RIEMER,* Senior Program Officer ABIGAIL SHEFFER, Senior Program Associate/Associate Program Officer CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer DAVID H. SMITH, Senior Program Officer VICTORIA SWISHER, Research Associate (through July 2009) LINDA WALKER, Senior Project Assistant SANDRA WILSON, Senior Financial Assistant DIONNA WILLIAMS, Program Associate Consultants IAN W. PRYKE, Seminar Series Project Director DIANA ALEXANDER, Seminar Series Events Coordinator *Staff of another NRC Board who are shared with the SSB. i

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHAIRS AND VICE-CHAIRS 2008–Present Charles Kennel, Chair A. Thomas Young, Vice Chair (2008–Present) 2003–2008 Lennard A. Fisk, Chair Thomas Young, Vice Chair (2006–2008) George A. Paulikas, Vice Chair (2003–2006) 2000–2003 John H. McElroy, Chair 1994–2000 Claude R. Canizares, Chair 1989–1994 Louis J. Lanzerotti, Chair 1982–1988 Thomas M. Donahue, Chair 1977–1982 A.G.W. Cameron, Chair 1974–1976 Richard M. Goody, Chair 1970–1973 Charles H. Townes, Chair 1962–1969 Harry H. Hess, Chair 1958–1962 Lloyd V. Berkner, Chair SPACE STUDIES BOARD DIRECTORS 2009–present Richard E. Rowberg, Interim Director 2006–2009 Marcia S. Smith (until March 2, 2009) 2005–2006 Tamara L. Dickinson (Acting) 1998–2005 Joseph K. Alexander 1990–1997 Marc S. Allen 1982–1989 Dean P. Kastel 1976–1982 Bruce N. Gregory 1974–1976 Milton W. Rosen 1958–1974 Hugh Odishaw ii

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Acknowledgments This series was made possible by the generous support of the following sponsors: The National Academies National Aeronautics and Space Administration The Aerospace Corporation ATK—Alliant Techsystems Inc. Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corporatoin The Boeing Company Lockheed Martin Corporation Northrop Grumman Corporation Orbital Sciences Corporation We are also indebted to the co-sponsors who assisted in the promotion of the series both nationally and in the various event locations: American Astronautical Society American Astronomical Society American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics COSPAR—Committee on Space Research International Space University National Space Society The Planetary Society Finally, our thanks to our local co-hosts for their invaluable assistance with local organization and promotion: Committee on Space Research Florida State and Florida A&M Challenger Learning Center Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder The National Academies National Space Science and Technology Center Space Telescope Science Institute University of California at Irvine University of New Hampshire University of Texas at Austin West Virginia High Technology Consortium Foundation ix

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Preface Certain events in human history warrant com- research they have underway and the promise it holds. memorative celebrations. One of these is the Interna- These events then concluded with a public lecture by tional Geophysical Year (IGY ) of 1957–1958 during an internationally prominent scientist. The all-day col- which scientists from 66 countries coordinated their loquia consisted of lectures and panel discussions by studies of the Earth, including the first measurements international scientists and space officials. The topics from artificial Earth satellites. With the launch of these of these events covered the full spectrum of space and first satellites, the Space Age began. Earth science research, from global climate change, The Space Studies Board (SSB) was created on to the cosmic origins of life, to the exploration of the June 26, 1958, by the National Academy of Sciences Moon and Mars, to the scientific research required to as a result of the IGY and the launch of the first U.S. support human spaceflight. All of these lectures and satellites. The SSB’s mandate is to provide advice to panel discussions were Web-cast and were available on the government on priorities in space science research the SSB Web site. and related issues. It seems fitting then that the SSB The seminar and colloquia series culminated on should celebrate the 50th anniversary of the IGY, and June 26, 2008, with an evening reception at the Smith- recognize and marvel in all of the science that has sonian Institution’s National Air and Space Museum been accomplished during the past 50 years and look to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the SSB. At this forward to the discoveries that await us in the next 50 event, Frank B. McDonald delivered the first Space years. Hence, the SSB conducted, from September Studies Board James A. Van Allen Lecture, entitled 2007 to June 2008, an international public seminar “Explorer 1: Gateway to the Never Ending Wonders series, with each monthly talk highlighting a different of Space Science.” topic in space and Earth science. The principal lectures The SSB is very grateful to the many sponsors from the series are compiled in this book. The series who made this outstanding series of events possible, culminated in June 2008 with a celebration of the 50th beginning with the presidents of the National Acad- anniversary of the Space Studies Board itself. emy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, The seminar series involved eight half-day events and the Institute of Medicine. NASA was a major held in various locations around the United States and sponsor of the series, and we also are grateful to the one in Paris (home of the international Committee Aerospace Corporation, ATK, Ball Aerospace, Boe- on Space Research), and two all-day colloquia held at ing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and the National Academies’ Beckman Center in Irvine, Orbital for their financial support. We are especially California, and at the National Academy of Sciences grateful to the Richard Lounsbery Foundation for its in Washington, D.C. The half-day events began with sponsorship of the Space Studies Board James A. Van panel discussions by local scientists who spoke on the Allen Lecture. xi xi

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xii PREFACE The prevailing messages throughout the seminar in space and Earth science is just beginning. Opportu- series as demonstrated by the lectures in this book are nities abound that will forever alter our destiny. how much we have accomplished over the past 50 years, how profound are our discoveries, how much contribu- L.A. Fisk tions from the space program affect our daily lives, and Chair, Space Studies Board (2003–2008) yet how much remains to be done. The age of discovery

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Contents 1 FROM THE BIG BANG TO THE NOBEL PRIZE AND ON TO THE JAMES WEBB 3 SPACE TELESCOPE John C. Mather, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center 2 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN CAUSES 23 Ralph J. Cicerone, National Academy of Sciences 3 SCIENCE GOES TO THE MOON AND PLANETS: CELEBRATING 41 50 YEARS SINCE THE IGY Wesley T. Huntress, Jr., Carnegie Institution of Washington 4 LEAVING THE PLANET—SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESULTS ON THE 61 INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION Carl E. Walz, National Aeronautics and Space Administration 5 THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFE ELSEWHERE IN THE UNIVERSE 77 Christopher F. Chyba, Princeton Uniersity 6 UNDERSTANDING THE POLES OF EARTH, THE MOON, AND MARS 91 Christopher Rapley, National Museum of Science and Industry, London, England 7 VOYAGER’S JOURNEY TO THE EDGE OF INTERSTELLAR SPACE 109 Edward C. Stone, California Institute of Technology 8 FUTURE OF SPACE AND EARTH ROBOTIC EXPLORATION: SCIENTIFIC AND 119 TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Charles Elachi, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology 9 EXPLORER 1: GATEWAY TO THE NEVER ENDING WONDERS OF 127 SPACE SCIENCE The Space Studies Board Van Allen Lecture deliered by Frank B. McDonald, Institute for Physical Science and Technology, Uniersity of Maryland xiii

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xi CONTENTS APPENDIXES A The International Geophysical Year 147 B The Space Studies Board 149 C Program of Public Events 151