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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
AMERICA’S FUTURE IN SPACE
ALIGNING THE CIVIL SPACE PROGRAM WITH NATIONAL NEEDS
Committee on the Rationale and Goals of the U.S. Civil Space Program
Space Studies Board
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by funding from the National Research Council. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14036-2
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14036-6
Cover: Cover design by Tim Warchocki. All images courtesy of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Copies of this report are available free of charge from:
Space Studies Board
National Research Council
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
OTHER REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop (Space Studies Board [SSB] and Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2009)
Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Mars Sample Return Missions (SSB, 2009)
A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Heliophysics Program (SSB, 2009)
Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2009)
Assessing the Research and Development Plan for the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Summary of a Workshop (ASEB, 2008)
A Constrained Space Exploration Technology Program: A Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program (ASEB, 2008)
Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring (SSB, 2008)
Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2008 Engineering Research and Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2008)
Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2008 Ohio Research Scholars Program of the State of Ohio (ASEB, 2008)
Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA’s Constellation System (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Managing Space Radiation Risk in the New Era of Space Exploration (ASEB, 2008)
NASA Aeronautics Research: An Assessment (ASEB, 2008)
Opening New Frontiers in Space: Choices for the Next New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity (SSB, 2008)
Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program: An Interim Report (ASEB, 2008)
Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2008)
Space Science and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2008)
United States Civil Space Policy: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Wake Turbulence: An Obstacle to Increased Air Traffic Capacity (ASEB, 2008)
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
Assessment of the NASA Astrobiology Institute (SSB, 2007)
An Astrobiology Strategy for the Exploration of Mars (SSB with the Board on Life Sciences [BLS], 2007)
Building a Better NASA Workforce: Meeting the Workforce Needs for the National Vision for Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2007)
Decadal Science Strategy Surveys: Report of a Workshop (SSB, 2007)
Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (SSB, 2007)
Exploring Organic Environments in the Solar System (SSB with the Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, 2007)
Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Review (SSB, 2007)
The Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems (SSB with BLS, 2007)
NASA’s Beyond Einstein Program: An Architecture for Implementation (SSB with the Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA], 2007)
Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2007)
A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Astrophysics Program (SSB with BPA, 2007)
Portals to the Universe: The NASA Astronomy Science Centers (SSB, 2007)
The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon (SSB, 2007)
Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from
Space Studies Board
National Research Council
The Keck Center of the National Academies
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-3477/ssb@nas.edu
www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
COMMITTEE ON THE RATIONALE AND GOALS OF THE U.S. CIVIL SPACE PROGRAM
LESTER L. LYLES, Consultant (U.S. Air Force, retired), Chair
RAYMOND S. COLLADAY,
Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired),
Vice Chair
LENNARD A. FISK,
University of Michigan,
Vice Chair
JAY APT,
Carnegie Mellon University
JAMES B. ARMOR, JR.,
ATK Space Systems
WANDA M. AUSTIN,
The Aerospace Corporation
DAVID BALTIMORE,
California Institute of Technology
ROBERT BEDNAREK,
SES AMERICOM/NEW SKIES
JOSEPH A. BURNS,
Cornell University
PIERRE CHAO,
Center for Strategic and International Studies and Renaissance Strategic Advisors
KENNETH S. FLAMM,
University of Texas, Austin
JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE.
U.S. Naval War College
PAUL D. NIELSEN,
Carnegie Mellon University
MICHAEL S. TURNER,
University of Chicago
THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,
Colorado State University
Staff
JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Co-Study Director,
Space Studies Board (SSB)
BRIAN D. DEWHURST, Co-Study Director,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (ASEB)
CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator,
SSB
CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor,
SSB and ASEB
LEWIS GROSWALD, Research Associate,
SSB
VICTORIA SWISHER, Research Associate,
SSB
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
SPACE STUDIES BOARD
CHARLES F. KENNEL,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego,
Chair
A. THOMAS YOUNG,
Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired),
Vice Chair
DANIEL N. BAKER,
University of Colorado
STEVEN J. BATTEL,
Battel Engineering
CHARLES L. BENNETT,
Johns Hopkins University
YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant
ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN,
Dixie State College and Aerospace Corporation
ALAN DRESSLER,
The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution
JACK D. FELLOWS,
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
FIONA A. HARRISON,
California Institute of Technology
JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE,
U.S. Naval War College
KLAUS KEIL,
University of Hawaii
MOLLY K. MACAULEY,
Resources for the Future
BERRIEN MOORE III,
University of New Hampshire
ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
JAMES PAWELCZYK,
Pennsylvania State University
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN,
University of California, Irvine
JOAN VERNIKOS,
Thirdage LLC
JOSEPH F. VEVERKA,
Cornell University
WARREN M. WASHINGTON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research
CHARLES E. WOODWARD,
University of Minnesota
ELLEN G. ZWEIBEL,
University of Wisconsin
RICHARD E. ROWBERG, Interim Director (from March 2, 2009)
MARCIA S. SMITH, Director (until March 1, 2009)
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
RAYMOND S. COLLADAY,
Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired),
Chair
CHARLES F. BOLDEN, JR.,
Jack and Panther, LLC1
ANTHONY J. BRODERICK, Aviation Safety Consultant
AMY BUHRIG,
Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group
PIERRE CHAO,
Center for Strategic and International Studies and Renaissance Strategic Advisors
INDERJIT CHOPRA,
University of Maryland, College Park
ROBERT L. CRIPPEN,
Thiokol Propulsion (retired)
DAVID GOLDSTON,
Harvard University
R. JOHN HANSMAN,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PRESTON HENNE,
Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation
JOHN M. KLINEBERG,
Space Systems/Loral (retired)
RICHARD KOHRS, Independent Consultant
IVETT LEYVA,
Air Force Research Laboratory, Edwards Air Force Base
EDMOND SOLIDAY,
United Airlines (retired)
RICHARD E. ROWBERG, Interim Director (from March 2, 2009)
MARCIA S. SMITH, Director (through March 1, 2009)
1
Major General Bolden became NASA administrator on July 17, 2009, after writing and review of this report was completed.
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
Preface
Civil space activities have blossomed over the 50 years since President Eisenhower authorized an Earth satellite program as part of the International Geophysical Year. The civil space program now includes important components in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), numerous other federal departments and agencies, academia, and private and commercial entities. A substantial national security space program preceded the civil space program and has continued to be developed concurrently in support of U.S. military and intelligence-gathering activities.
Formal policies to guide the civil space program have been established over the same period via executive orders and via legislation built on the 1958 NASA Enabling Act and other congressional directions for executive branch departments and agencies. This guidance has included continued emphasis on federal support for scientific research; development and operation of advanced space technologies and systems; establishment of a U.S. space operations infrastructure and industrial base; application of space technology to measurements of Earth and its environment and for the provision of other societal benefits; exploration of outer space; and the utilization of space activities in support of U.S. commercial, educational, and foreign-policy objectives. Major policy decisions have led to commitments to the Apollo program for human exploration of the Moon, the space shuttle and International Space Station programs for human spaceflight, the Viking and Voyager planetary missions, the Great Observatories program, Mission to Planet Earth, and the 2004 vision for human and robotic space exploration.
As civil space policies and programs have evolved, the geopolitical environment has changed dramatically. Although the U.S. space program was originally
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
driven in large part by competition with the Soviet Union, the nation now finds itself in a post-Cold War world in which many nations have established, or are aspiring to develop, independent space capabilities. Furthermore, in the United States and globally, discoveries from developments in the first 50 years of the space age have led to an explosion of scientific and engineering knowledge and practical applications of space technology. Space activities now play critical roles in commerce, government, and science, and indeed the pervasiveness of space capabilities in the everyday lives of individual citizens is so encompassing that things we take for granted would not be possible without space technology. Federal responsibility for civil space activities now reaches across many federal agencies. For several decades, the private sector has also been developing, fielding, and expanding the commercial use of space-based technology and systems. Such private sector activities have enhanced our lives and provided capabilities for both people and commercial enterprises that could not have been dreamed of a few decades ago. Private sector space activities are likely to continue to expand beneficially in the decades ahead.
Recognizing the new national and international context for space activities, the National Research Council established the Committee on the Rationale and Goals of the U.S. Civil Space Program (see Appendix A for biographies of committee members) and charged it to prepare a report to advise the nation on key goals and critical issues in 21st-century U.S. civil space policy.1 The committee was asked to do the following:
Identify overarching goals that are important for our national interest.
Identify issues that are critically important to achieving these goals and ensuring the future progress of the U.S. civil space program.
Recommend actions to address unresolved issues.
Explore a possible long-term future for U.S. civil space activities that is built upon lessons learned and past successes; is based on realistic expectations of future resources; and is credible scientifically, technically, and politically.2
During the course of its study, the committee heard from representatives of the Department of Defense, the FAA, NASA, NOAA, and the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics and from experts in areas such as space policy, journalism and public education, Earth science and applications, human space exploration, advanced technology development, commercial space, and national security. See Appendix C for the full agendas of
1
The committee considered “civil space” to include all government, commercial, academic, and private space activities not directly intended for military or intelligence use. The committee did not include NASA’s aeronautics program as an element of civil space. An extended discussion of this definition appears in Chapter 1.
2
See Appendix B for the full statement of task for this study.
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
the committee’s meetings. In addition, the committee invited comments and suggestions on topics relevant to its charge from the general public and from many nongovernment organizations. See Appendix D for a summary of the committee’s outreach efforts and for highlights of responses from the public.
This report presents the study committee’s conclusions, recommendations, and supporting material. In responding to its charge, the committee sought to provide a long-term, strategic perspective that frames a vision for civil space activities that can endure for many years. Consequently, this report does not address nearer-term issues that confront U.S. space activities other than to provide a long-term context in which more tactical decisions might be made.
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
James G. Anderson, Harvard University,
Charles F. Bolden, Jr., U.S. Marine Corps (retired), Jack and Panther, LLC,1
Franklin R. Chang Diaz, Ad Astra Rocket Company,
Robert A. Frosch, Harvard University,
David Goldston, Harvard University,
Charles F. Kennel, Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
John M. Klineberg, Space Systems/Loral (retired),
Ivett A. Leyva, Air Force Research Laboratory,
Richard A. McCray, University of Colorado,
Howard E. McCurdy, American University,
Irwin I. Shapiro, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,
1
Major General Bolden became NASA administrator on July 17, 2009, after writing and review of this report was completed.
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
Alton D. Slay, Slay Enterprises Inc., and
Derek Webber, Spaceport Associates.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Peter M. Banks, Astrolabe Venture Partners. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
Contents
SUMMARY
1
1
FROM SPUTNIK AND APOLLO TO TODAY’S GLOBALIZED ENVIRONMENT
9
Evolving Space Policy in a New Global Environment,
10
The U.S. Civil Space Program,
12
2
GOALS FOR U.S. CIVIL SPACE ACTIVITIES
15
Apply Space Research and Technology to Stewardship of Earth,
17
Seek Knowledge of the Universe and Search for Life Beyond Earth,
21
Expand the Frontiers of Human Activities in Space,
27
Provide Technological, Economic, and Societal Benefits,
30
Inspire Current and Future Generations,
37
Enhance U.S. Strategic Leadership,
42
Balancing Support for Multiple Goals,
46
3
FOUNDATIONAL ELEMENTS
49
Aligning the Nation’s Space Activities,
50
Highly Capable Technical Workforce,
53
Infrastructure,
54
Technology and Innovation,
56
Summary Comments,
57
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America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs
4
RECOMMENDATIONS
59
Addressing National Imperatives,
59
Climate and Environmental Monitoring,
60
Scientific Inquiry,
60
Advanced Space Technology,
61
International Cooperation,
62
Human Spaceflight,
63
Organizing to Meet National Needs,
63
Recommendations in Context,
65
APPENDIXES
A Committee Member and Staff Biographies
69
B Statement of Task
77
C Meeting Agendas
79
D Committee Outreach and Public Responses
85
