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Vital Statistics: Summary of a Workshop
VITAL STATISTICS
SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP
Michael J. Siri and Daniel L. Cork, Rapporteurs
Committee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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Vital Statistics: Summary of a Workshop
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SES-0453930). The project that is the subject of this report was funded by allocations from the U.S. Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics, and the Social Security Administration (Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics) to the National Science Foundation under this grant. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14164-2
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14164-8
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-3096; Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2009). Vital Statistics: Summary of a Workshop. Michael J. Siri and Daniel L. Cork, rapporteurs. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Vital Statistics: Summary of a Workshop
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Vital Statistics: Summary of a Workshop
PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON VITAL DATA FOR NATIONAL NEEDS
LOUISE RYAN (Chair),
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia; formerly, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University
JANET NORWOOD, Independent Consultant,
Washington, DC
EDWARD PERRIN,
Department of Health Services, University of Washington
SAMUEL PRESTON,
Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania
KENNETH PREWITT,
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director
DANIEL L. CORK, Senior Program Officer
CARYN E. KUEBLER, Research Associate (until March 2008)
MICHAEL J. SIRI, Program Associate
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Vital Statistics: Summary of a Workshop
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2008–2009
WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair),
Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM,
Department of Economics and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland
ALICIA CARRIQUIRY,
Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
WILLIAM DUMOUCHEL,
Phase Forward, Inc., Waltham, Massachusetts
JOHN C. HALTIWANGER,
Department of Economics, University of Maryland
V. JOSEPH HOTZ,
Department of Economics, Duke University
KAREN KAFADAR,
Department of Statistics, Indiana University, Bloomington
DOUGLAS S. MASSEY,
Department of Sociology, Princeton University
SALLY MORTON,
Statistics and Epidemiology, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
JOSEPH NEWHOUSE,
Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University
SAMUEL H. PRESTON,
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
HAL STERN,
Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine
ROGER TOURANGEAU,
Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan
ALAN ZASLAVSKY,
Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director
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Vital Statistics: Summary of a Workshop
Acknowledgment
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that assist the institution in making its report as sound as possible, and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
The planning committee thanks the following individuals for their review of this report: Colm A. O’Muircheartaigh, Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago; Edward B. Perrin, Department of Health Services (emeritus), University of Washington; Richard G. Rogers, Population Program and Department of Sociology, University of Colorado; and Harry M. Rosenberg, National Center for Health Statistics (retired), Bethesda, MD.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Linda J. Waite, Department of Sociology, University of Chicago. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that the independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of the report rests entirely with the authors and the institution.
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Contents
1
Introduction
1
1–A The Workshop on Vital Data for National Needs
3
1–B Successes and Challenges of the Vital Statistics Program
4
1–C Report Overview
8
2
Uses of Vital Statistics Data
9
2–A Uses in Health Policy and Health Research
10
2–A.1 Social Inequalities in Health
10
2–A.2 Trends in Mortality
14
2–A.3 Uses of Vital Statistics by the Maternal and Child Health Bureau
17
2–B Population Projections and Estimates
21
2–B.1 Population and Fiscal Projections at the Social Security Administration
22
2–B.2 Population Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau
27
2–B.3 Discussion
30
2–C Growing and Emerging Uses: Vital Statistics and Biosurveillance
31
3
The Federal-State Cooperative Relationship
35
3–A The Role of the States
36
3–B Challenges and Limitations at the National Center for Health Statistics
41
3–C Examples of Federal-State Cooperation in the U.S. Federal Statistical System
42
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3–C.1 The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
42
3–C.2 The Common Core of Data
46
4
Methodological Issues and the 2003 Revision of Standard Instruments
49
4–A The 2003 Revisions
50
4–B Race and Ethnicity
52
4–B.1 Bridging Single-Race and Multiple-Race Data at NCHS
55
4–B.2 Bridging Single-Race and Multiple-Race Data at the Census Bureau
56
4–C Fetal Deaths and Infant Health Risk Factors
58
4–D Mortality and Causes of Death
61
5
Options for a 21st Century Vital Statistics Program
65
Appendixes
75
A The U.S. Vital Statistics System: The Role of State and Local Health Departments
Steven Schwartz
77
B The U.S. Vital Statistics System: A National Perspective
National Center for Health Statistics
87
C Workshop Agenda and Participant List
111
D 2003 Revisions, Standard Certificates of Death and Live Birth
117
References
125
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List of Figures
1-1
Flow of vital records and statistics in the United States
2
2-1
Population aged dependency ratio, historical and projected through 2080
22
2-2
Historical and projected total fertility rates, 1915–2075
23
4-1
Rates of gestational diabetes by age of mother and plurality, 12-state reporting area, 2005
59
4-2
Rate of surfactant therapy by gestational age and race and Hispanic origin of mother, 12-state reporting area, 2005
60
4-3
Steroids for fetal lung maturation received by the mother prior to delivery, by gestational age and race and Hispanic origin, 12-state reporting area, 2005
60
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List of Tables
4-1
Adoption of 2003 Revised Certificates and Multiple-Race Reporting for Births and Deaths, by State, 2005
53
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List of Boxes
1-1
Successes of the U.S. Vital Statistics System
5
2-1
Performance and Outcome Measures for the Maternal and Child Health Bureau Block Grant Program
18
3-1
Surveys Comprising the Common Core of Data
46
4-1
Major Changes to the U.S. Standard Certificates for Vital Events, 2003 Revision
51
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