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America’s Climate Choices
Committee on America’s Climate Choices
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
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T HE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe-
tences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under con-
tract number DG133R08CQ0062, Task Order # 4. Opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recom-
mendations expressed in this material are those of the authoring panel and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the sponsoring agency.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14585-5 (Book)
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14585-6 (Book)
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14586-2 (PDF)
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14586-4 (PDF)
Library of Congress Control Number: 2011927383
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth
Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the
Washington metropolitan area); Internet: http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin-
guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and
research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of
the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to se-
cure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given
to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and educa-
tion. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of fur-
thering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general
policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of
both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing ser-
vices to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council
is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr.
Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES
ALBERT CARNESALE (Chair), University of California, Los Angeles
WILLIAM CHAMEIDES ( Vice-Chair), Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
DONALD F. BOESCH, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science,
Cambridge
MARILYN A. BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
JONATHAN CANNON, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University, East Lansing
GEORGE C. EADS, Charles River Associates, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT W. FRI, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
JAMES E. GERINGER, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Cheyenne, Wyoming
DENNIS L. HARTMANN, University of Washington, Seattle
CHARLES O. HOLLIDAY, JR., DuPont (Ret.), Nashville, Tennessee
KATHARINE L. JACOBS,* Arizona Water Institute, Tucson
THOMAS KARL,* NOAA, Asheville, North Carolina
DIANA M. LIVERMAN, University of Arizona, Tucson, and University of Oxford, UK
PAMELA A. MATSON, Stanford University, California
PETER H. RAVEN, Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
PHILIP R. SHARP, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
PEGGY M. SHEPARD, WE ACT for Environmental Justice, New York, New York
ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Princeton University, New Jersey
SUSAN SOLOMON, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder,
Colorado
BJORN STIGSON, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Geneva,
Switzerland
THOMAS J. WILBANKS, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee
PETER ZANDAN, Public Strategies, Inc., Austin, Texas
Asterisks (*) denote members who resigned during the course of the study.
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NRC Staff:
IAN KRAUCUNAS, Study Director
LAURIE GELLER, Study Director (as of December 2010)
CHRIS ELFRING, Director, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
PAUL STERN, Director, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change
KATHERINE WELLER, Associate Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
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Foreword:
America’s Climate Choices
C
onvened by the National Research Council in response to a request from Con-
gress (P.L. 110-161), America’s Climate Choices is a suite of coordinated activities
designed to study the serious and sweeping issues associated with global cli-
mate change, including the science and technology challenges involved, and provide
advice on the most effective steps and most promising strategies that can be taken to
respond. The study builds on an extensive foundation of previous and ongoing work,
including current and past National Research Council reports, assessments from other
national and international organizations, the current scientific literature, climate action
plans by various entities, and other sources.
A Summit on America’s Climate Choices was convened on March 30–31, 2009, to
help frame the study, provide an opportunity for high-level participation and input
on key issues, and hear about relevant work carried out by others. Additional outside
viewpoints and perspectives were obtained via public events and workshops, invited
presentations at meetings, and comments and questions received through the study
website http://americasclimatechoices.org.
The Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change was charged to de-
scribe, analyze, and assess strategies for reducing the net future human influence on
climate, including both technology and policy options. The panel’s report focuses on
actions to reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions and other human drivers of cli-
mate change, such as changes in land use, but also considers the international dimen-
sions of limiting the magnitude of climate change.
The Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change was charged to describe,
analyze, and assess actions and strategies to reduce vulnerability, increase adaptive
capacity, improve resilience, and promote successful adaptation to climate change in
different regions, sectors, systems, and populations. The panel’s report draws on a wide
range of sources and case studies to identify lessons learned from past experiences,
promising current approaches, and potential new directions.
The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was charged to provide a
concise overview of current understanding of past, present, and future climate change,
including its causes and its impacts, then recommend steps to advance our current
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FOREWORD
understanding, including new observations, research programs, next-generation
models, and the physical and human assets needed to support these and other activi-
ties. The panel’s report focuses on the scientific advances needed both to improve our
understanding of the intergrated human-climate system and to devise more effective
responses to climate change.
The Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change
was charged to describe and assess different activities, products, strategies, and tools
for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and ex-
ecute effective, integrated responses. The panel’s report describes the different types
of climate change-related decisions and actions being taken at various levels and in
different sectors and regions; and it develops a framework, tools, and practical advice
for ensuring that the best available technical knowledge about climate change is used
to inform these decisions and actions.
The Committee on America’s Climate Choices was responsible for providing over-
all direction, coordination, and integration of the America’s Climate Choices suite of
activities and ensuring that these activities provide well-supported, action-oriented,
and useful advice to the nation. The Committee was also charged with writing a final
report—this document—that builds on the four panel reports and other sources to
answer the following four overarching questions:
• What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate
change?
• What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be
pursued to respond to climate change?
• What are the major scientific and technological advances needed to better
understand and respond to climate change?
• What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethi-
cal, intergenerational) to responding effectively to climate change, and what
can be done to overcome these impediments?
Collectively, the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities involved more than 90
volunteers from a range of communities including academia, various levels of govern-
ment, business and industry, other nongovernmental organizations, and the interna-
tional community. Study participants were charged to write consensus reports that pro-
vide broad, action-oriented, and authoritative analyses to inform and guide responses
to climate change across the nation. Responsibility for the final content of each report
rests solely with the authoring group and the National Research Council. However, the
development of each report included input from and interactions with members of all
five study groups; the membership of each group is listed in Appendix A.
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Preface
H
ow should the United States respond to the challenges posed by climate
change? This is the fundamental question addressed by America’s Climate
Choices—a suite of activities requested by the U.S. Congress and conducted
by the U.S. National Research Council. Book shelves and the internet are replete with
studies of climate change: Why conduct another one? First among the reasons to do
so is that the body of scientific knowledge about climate change is growing rapidly
and, as it does, so too does our understanding of the nature and severity of potential
consequences. Second, unlike most previous studies, this study looks across the full
range of response options and the interactions among them. Third, this work goes
beyond analysis of the problem and, in accordance with its Statement of Task, provides
“action-oriented advice on what can be done to respond most effectively to climate
change. . . ” Toward that end, the committee membership was not limited to physical
and social scientists but also included people with expertise and experience in public
policy, government, and the private sector.
Numerous substantive and procedural questions arose in the course of the commit-
tee’s work—for instance, regarding the primary audience to which the final report
would be directed. The Statement of Task calls upon the committee to “advise the
nation,” which indicates an extremely broad audience. Ultimately, the committee
chose to view as its audience decision makers at all levels who will influence America’s
response to climate change. Hence this report’s focus on formulating decisions to be
made and on strategies for making them. Although this study is focused on America’s
climate choices and is accordingly directed to American decision makers, the commit-
tee’s analyses and advice were formulated with full consideration of the international
context within which U.S. responses to climate change must be selected and imple-
mented. Another consideration was the analytical framework to use in identifying
America’s climate choices. Although no single option was selected a priori, the panels
and the committee all concluded that iterative risk management is the most useful
framework for dealing with the many complexities and uncertainties that are inherent
to climate change.
A final example of an issue that required resolution by the committee stems from
the assigned task to “provide targeted, action-oriented advice.” Some natural and
social scientists believe their appropriate role is to provide the best available scientific
information, to formulate options for decision makers, and to describe the relative
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P R E FA C E
advantages and disadvantages of each of the options. In the views of these individu-
als, recommending a particular option would carry them beyond objectivity and into
advocacy. Others consider it appropriate to inform decision makers of their considered
judgments, properly labeled as such. This issue was not resolved in the abstract; rather,
the members of the committee sought to achieve consensus on a case-by-case basis.
We do recommend specific courses of action where there is substantial evidence
supporting the need for such actions, but this advice is fairly general in nature, in a
deliberate effort to avoid being “policy prescriptive.” Recommendations that deal with
government function, such as responsibilities to be assigned to specific federal agen-
cies, were deemed to be beyond the scope of the committee.
Since the time that the Committee began its work, the economic and political context
in which climate change decisions are being made has changed a great deal, both
domestically and internationally. Within the United States, Congress has considered
several substantive proposals for federal legislation related to climate change, but
none has become law. The committee did not attempt to analyze these specific pro-
posals or to weigh in with views on other specific political developments taking place
during the course of the study.
We hope that the efforts of the panels and this committee will prove useful to the
nation as it confronts the complex challenges of climate change in the near term and
in the decades ahead. We wish to thank numerous people who provided valuable
input to this study, including the following people who were invited guest speakers at
the committee’s meetings: Anthony Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute;
Steven Seidel, Harvard University; Jonathan Pershing, U.S. Department of State; Anand
Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay; Richard Suttmeier, University of
Oregon; Nicole DeWandre, European Commission; Rik Leemans, Wageningen Univer-
sity; Yvo de Boer, UNFCCC; Franklin Moore, USAID; Ian Noble, World Bank; Scott Barrett,
Columbia University; Michael Grubb, U.K. Carbon Trust; Glenn Prickett, Conservation
International; Stephen Gardiner, University of Washington; Steven Vanderheiden,
University of Colorado; Manuel Pastor, University of Southern California; and Michel
Gelobter, Cooler, Inc. Special thanks to Gary Yohe (Wesleyan University; member of
the ACC Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change) for substantial con-
tributions to the committee’s discussions about the concept of risk management.
Numerous additional people provided input through participation in the America’s
Climate Choices Summit and the Geoengineering workshop (see Appendix D for
Summit agenda.).
Essential contributions to this project were made by knowledgeable, skilled, and
accommodating members of the National Research Council staff, and we are deeply
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Preface
grateful to them. Ian Kraucunas and Laurie Geller were invaluable in organizing and
marshalling the effort and in their substantive engagement. We benefitted immensely
from the active participation of other members of the staff, especially the important
contributions from Chris Elfring, Paul Stern, and Marlene Kaplan, and the outstanding
administrative support from Rita Gaskins and Amanda Purcell. Our gratitude extends
also to the members of the ACC panels and to the many others who shared with us
the knowledge, perspectives, and wisdom essential to the success of America’s Climate
Choices.
Albert Carnesale (Chair) and William Chameides (Vice Chair)
Committee on America’s Climate Choices
xi
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Acknowledgments
T
his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved
by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review
is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making
its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institu-
tional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The
review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of
the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participa-
tion in their review of this report:
IAN BURTON, Meteorological Service of Canada, Downsview, Ontario
KEN CALDEIRA, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, California
MARTIN J. CHAVEZ, ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM C. CLARK, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Texas, Austin
KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia
DAVID GOLDSTON, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C.
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee
CHARLES KOLSTAD, University of California, Santa Barbara
M. GRANGER MORGAN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
RICHARD H. MOSS, University of Maryland, College Park
LAWRENCE T. PAPAY, PQR, LLC, La Jolla, California
SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group, Boston, Massachusetts
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments
and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommenda-
tions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this
report was overseen by Robert Frosch (Harvard University) and Susan Hansen (Clark
University), appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies and the Report Review
Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examina-
tion of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that
all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of
this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Institutional oversight for this project was provided by:
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park
RICHARD CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New
Jersey
ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, University of Chicago, Illinois
KIMBERLY PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW, University of Oklahoma, Norman
XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson
Ex Officio Members
GERALD A. MEEHL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer
KATIE WELLER, Associate Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
LAUREN M. BROWN, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
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Contents
SUMMARY 1
1 THE CONTEXT FOR AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES 7
Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends, 8
The Current Context, 11
2 CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 15
Observed Climate Change, 15
Future Climate Change, 19
3 THE UNIQUE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 29
4 A FRAMEWORK FOR MAKING AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES 39
An Iterative Risk Management Approach to Climate Change, 39
Decision Criteria in an Iterative Risk Management Framework, 46
5 KEY ELEMENTS OF AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES 51
Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change, 51
Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts, 62
Investing to Expand Options and Improve Choices, 67
International Engagement, 72
Toward an Integrated National Response, 74
NOTES AND REFERENCES 81
APPENDIXES
A America’s Climate Choices Membership Lists 93
B Committee on America’s Climate Choices Member Biographical Sketches 97
C Additional Information Regarding the Content of the ACC Panel Reports 109
D Agenda from the Summit on America’s Climate Choices 113
E Acronyms and Initialisms 117
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