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CHAPTER THREE What Are America’s Options for Adaptation? I f the United States is to cope effectively with the impacts of climate change, it will need an array of adaptation options to choose from. Unfortunately, adaptation to climate change has been a low national priority, and very little research has been devoted to identifying and evaluating options for adaptation. In the short term, the nation can draw lessons from past experience with adaptations to climate variability, limited experience with climate change adaptation already undertaken in some re- gions of the world, a limited number of careful analyses of adaptation possibilities, and from an onrush of creative thinking in connection with emerging efforts to do adap- tation planning. But, in many cases, the options that we can identify for adaptation to impacts of climate change lack solid information about benefits, costs, potentials, and limits for three reasons: 1. Attribution. Climate change is just now emerging as a cause of impacts; there- fore, it is difficult at this stage to document effects of adaptation in reducing those impacts. 2. Diversity. Which adaptation actions make sense depends very heavily on context: the nature of the impact, the geographical scale and location, and the sector(s) affected. As a result, general conclusions about effects of particular options are often difficult to support. 3. Knowledge base. Very little research has been carried out on climate change adaptation actions to date (as distinguished from determinants of adaptation capacity; see Chapter 5). Society’s need to cope with changing climate and environmental conditions is not new; people have been adjusting to their environment since the dawn of civilization. Agriculture is one of the earliest examples: over the ages, farmers have repeatedly adjusted cultivation practices and bred new plant and animal varieties suited to vary- ing climate conditions. In recent times, the development of floodplain regulations, insurance, wildlife reserves, drinking water reservoirs, and building codes all reflect efforts to stabilize and protect our homes, livelihoods, and food supplies in the face of a variable climate. However, for the past 10,000 years, climate has been relatively stable, and weather patterns have fluctuated within a rather predictable range. Our growing awareness that the Earth’s climate is changing, and that we are facing novel 

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A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E future climate conditions that will interact with and compound our current economic and environmental challenges, has created a new context and a sense of urgency for climate adaptation planning (Adger et al., 2009; Moser, 2009b; Rockstrom et al., 2009). Adaptation measures now being considered include both extensions of past practices and novel strategies for addressing uncertainty and change. For example, newer ef- forts incorporate the necessity of anticipating a different climate and potential thresh- old events and conditions that will be outside the range of our past experience. The goals of our adaption efforts, however, remain the same as those in the past: to mini- mize harm and to take advantage of opportunities while sustaining human welfare and ecological integrity in the face of a changing environment. Some attention to adaptation to climate change is already under way in sectors most likely to be affected, from agriculture to tourism, although information about such voluntary actions is limited and their effects will have to be evaluated over time. Most of the explicit adaptation planning is occurring now at state or local levels. Much of this planning has roots in the late 1990s regional assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Many of the state and local planning efforts have been supported by federal legislation, federal-state partnerships such as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-sponsored Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISAs) and the Coastal Zone Management Program, and nongovern- mental organizations (NGOs) such as the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) and the International Council on Local Environmental Initiatives (now called the ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability; Chapter 5). Support from such diverse organizations indicates that the nation has considerable experience with planning at multiple scales and suggests that planning for climate change adaptation within the United States is likely to require coordinated public-private planning partnerships to span these scales. Significant adaptation planning for climate change has also occurred internationally (as illustrated in case studies in Chapters 5 and 6), stimulated by increasing awareness of climate change impacts and their serious societal and ecological consequences (IPCC, 2007a; Stern, 2007). In the United States, most adaptation planning at all scales has been initiated since 2005, and early efforts have largely focused on information gathering, vulnerability assessment, and organization—not yet on actions (Table 3.1). Therefore, despite increasing recognition of the urgent need to adapt to climate change, there is a very short history of past successes and failures from which to learn (Moser, 2009b). This chapter provides examples of the range of options available for adapting to climate variability and extremes in key climate-sensitive sectors. The panel notes that adaptation to climate variability and change is an activity whose depth and breadth 

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What Are America’s Options for Adaptation? TAbLE 3.1 Early adaptation activities Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative Partner Example Adaptation Activities Chicago, Illinois Developed Chicago Climate Action Plan in 2008; developed vulnerability and economic impact analyses; prioritized planning strategies to address impacts; raised substantial external funds to support adaptation programs; conducted downscaling of climate information for local decision making. King County, Washington Established the “Ask the Climate Question” approach to adaptation; funded a district-wide study of implications of climate change for water quality and quantity; worked with the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington to conduct an infrastructure assessment and develop a Geographic Information System tool; in partnership with CIG developed the handbook Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State Governments; implemented changes in water reclamation and distribution to expand municipal wastewater reuse. Los Angeles, California Established a Climate Adaptation Division within the Environmental Affairs Department and a Director for Climate Adaptation; developed downscaled regional climate information for decision making; explored urban heat island effects and prioritized areas to receive shade trees; adopted the Los Angeles Green Building Ordinance. Miami-Dade County, Florida Used Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) funds to strengthen buildings and develop hurricane shelters; engaged 250 stakeholders from multiple backgrounds and sectors and established the Climate Change Advisory Task Force; developed a report on adaptation strategies for the built environment and recommended developing minimum criteria standards for public investment. Working as a member of the Florida Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group, released a report to the governor on policy recommendations. Milwaukee, Wisconsin Preparing for more intense flood events, Milwaukee planners are aiming for a target of zero stormwater overflows per year to protect water quality in Lake Michigan; have constructed a deep tunnel for increased stormwater storage and conducted an analysis on stormwater infrastructure investments; and examined existing development codes to determine ways to encourage green spaces including rain gardens for increased infiltration. They are also working with other state partners on downscaling climate information and identifying adaptation strategies. continued 

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A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E TAbLE 3.1 Continued Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative Partner Example Adaptation Activities Nassau County, New York Nassau County recently completed its first Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan, funded by the FEMA Pre-disaster Hazard Mitigation Program. This has identified a series of measures to reduce disaster impacts and encourage smart growth to avoid impacts of flooding, storm surge, and sea level rise. Phoenix, Arizona Phoenix has incorporated climate change adaptation actions into the city’s sustainability program. This program focuses on land use, pollution prevention, and water-use measures that increase climate change resilience. The Phoenix Water Resources Plan includes long- term projections of water supply and demand that incorporate assumptions about changes in regional water supply availability. They have created an interdepartmental task force to address urban heat island issues in the urban core, including assessments of changes in building materials. San Francisco, California San Francisco has created a comprehensive climate action plan aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and understanding climate impacts, with a particular focus on environmental justice issues. San Francisco worked with multiple other large water utilities to create the Water Utility Climate Alliance, which now represents more than 40 million people in the United States and has been working to identify research needs in support of decision making. SOURCE: Information from CCAP (2009). vastly exceed its profile in the academic literature because the intended outcome is a practical, not an academic, result. Where possible, the available literature is cited, but the examples given below of possible adaptation options include some that have been widely and successfully tried but not discussed in the literature, as well as some that are novel or have been frequently suggested but never tried. Space precludes a thorough discussion of the history and practice of the various options presented below. The chapter follows with an examination of lessons that can be learned from a suite of integrated climate change adaptation planning processes under way in the United States and elsewhere. From these sectoral elements and lessons learned from early 

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What Are America’s Options for Adaptation? case studies, the panel summarizes findings that can provide a basis for designing climate change adaptation strategies and plans. These lead toward several recom- mended steps that can be implemented immediately or very soon (Chapter 8). SECTORAL ADAPTATIONS TO CLIMATE CHANgE Most current adaptation plans represent targeted efforts to address vulnerabilities in a single sector. They often build logically on past programs that have dealt with variabil- ity and extremes, such as extreme drought in agricultural areas, heat waves, or disease outbreaks in cities. This section summarizes possible options for adapting to climate change that have been identified in each of a number of sectors, including long but not exhaustive lists of ideas as illustrations of current perspectives and knowledge. As noted above, many of these options have not only not yet been tested and proven ef- fective as adaptation options to climate change, but in most cases their benefits, costs, potentials, and possible limitations have not been carefully analyzed. However, they do represent a range of ideas about potential options to reduce vulnerabilities that are currently being discussed. The “sectors” that the panel selected for analysis are sensitive to climate change and provide examples of the types of issues that are frequently managed by a single agency (e.g., agriculture, transportation, energy), are focal climate-sensitive public concerns (e.g., ecosystems, water, health), or are regions that face a consistent suite of interrelated issues (e.g., coastal zones). In general, these are sectors with great reasons for concern and are considered a high priority for adaptation. The panel also identified the policy level or agency—federal, state, local/city, private sector, NGO, or individual citizens—best poised to implement each option. In many cases, adaptation options will be implemented across scales and with multiple “actors.” The adaptation op- tions in the tables that follow are either examples from the literature or are based on expert judgment by members of the panel. Some are demonstrated responses to past incidents of climate variability such as flooding or prolonged drought. The suitability of any option generally depends on temporal and spatial context, as described in the cited references. Consequently, the adaptation options listed in the tables should not be construed as universally applicable recommendations. Instead, this panel stresses the importance of weighing the costs and benefits of each adaptation option on a case-by-case basis in the context of local needs, conditions, and impacts on other sectors. 

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A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E Ecosystems Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and associated climate changes directly affect ecosystems and the benefits they provide to society (i.e., ecosystem services such as food, fiber, regulation of water quantity and quality, and the cultural, aesthetic, and recreational benefits of ecosystems; also see Box 2.1) (MEA, 2005). Climate change also affects ecosystems through its impacts on underlying eco- system conditions such as soil fertility, species composition, and disturbance patterns (NRC, 2008a; USGCRP, 2009). Some of the greatest changes in ecosystems, however, are being driven largely by changes in land use, nutrient and other contaminant additions, loss of key native species, invasions of exotic species, and other human-caused distur- bances (Foley et al., 2005). Some of the most important impacts of climate change on ecosystems will result from interactions with these other human-caused impacts on ecosystems (USGCRP, 2009). Managers, particularly at state and local levels, generally have considerable experience with adaptation actions that yield immediate benefits under climatic extremes—for example, managing for water-conserving species and storing water to maintain ad- equate environmental flows during droughts. Similarly, the risk of ecosystem degrada- tion in response to climate change can be reduced by managing other human-gener- ated stresses such as pollution of freshwaters, estuaries, and coral reefs or rangeland erosion induced by overgrazing (Table 3.2). In some cases, such as ocean acidification, there is no known adaptation option other than to reduce rates of change in GHG concentrations and climate. Along with the development of a means of pricing and accounting for ecosystem ser- vices, sustaining ecosystem benefits for society over the longer term will require novel approaches such as periodic groundwater recharge during times of water surplus, filling of canals to prevent saltwater intrusion, and collaboration with stakeholders to co-manage the fringe of suburbs and other human developments surrounding many conservation lands (see additional examples of ideas in Table 3.2). Development of such long-term adaptation strategies will require experimentation (adaptive manage- ment) at appropriate scales and engagement of government at all levels, as well as the private sector, NGOs, and individual citizens (West et al., 2009). Government actions are important in aligning incentives with adaptation goals, particularly over the long term, and in facilitating a nationally coordinated effort by specifying minimum standards and/or providing funding opportunities (Adger et al., 2009). Maintaining a diversity of options by sustaining biodiversity and encouraging diverse management approaches at all scales will provide the nation with the necessary flexibility and resilience to 

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What Are America’s Options for Adaptation? respond to uncertain future climate changes (Chapin et al., 2009; Folke, 2006; West et al., 2009). Indirect effects of climate change, operating through changes in species composition and natural disturbance regimes such wildfire, insect outbreaks, and disease, are less certain but will likely have greater impact on ecosystems than direct effects such as temperature changes (MEA, 2005). The United States has considerable management experience at local to national levels in protecting endangered species, controlling the spread of exotic species, and managing natural disturbances, and this experience pro- vides a fundamental starting point for dealing with indirect effects of climate change. Despite current management efforts, however, recent climate warming has already begun to affect disturbance patterns and the well-being of native and exotic species in many parts of the nation, indicating that our current knowledge and practices are insufficient to address these issues over the long term (Brooks et al., 2004; Westerling et al., 2006). New strategies might be needed to reduce risk (for example, through re- dundant refuges and no-take zones to reduce pressure on protected species or over- harvested stocks); to manage for migration of desirable species and barriers to weedy species; and to manage rare or novel ecosystems for resilience and ecosystem services, including cultural and aesthetic value, rather than for past species composition (Hobbs et al., 2009; West et al., 2009) (Table 3.2). Experimenting, modeling scenarios of alterna- tive futures, and engaging stakeholders in transparent decision-making processes will be critical to developing long-term adaptation strategies that can successfully address the indirect effects of climate change (Carpenter et al., 2009; MEA, 2005). Managing ecosystems for adaptation to climate change also requires more consistent use of currently recognized best practices such as monitoring change, managing for multiple ecosystem benefits, and keeping disturbance at acceptable scales; attention to climate interactions with other processes such as wildfire and species invasions; and managing ecosystems as coupled social-ecological systems in which society both responds to and affects ecosystems and the climate system. Agriculture and Forestry Agriculture and, to a lesser extent, forestry have developed well-proven methods to adapt to direct effects of climate stress in the short term. These include changes in cropping, planting, and harvesting practices, as well as breeding and seed collection programs that provide genetic types and varieties of plants and animals adapted to different water and temperature conditions (USGCRP, 2009) (Table 3.3). Economic constraints and uncertainties about weather and global markets, however, can limit 

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A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E successful implementation of these approaches (Easterling et al., 2007). The applica- tion of these traditional approaches is particularly challenging with long-lived crops, including fruit and forest trees, which may experience considerable climate variability and change over the years between germination and maturity (Millar et al., 2007). Long-term adaptations to climate change may require development of new variet- ies, genetically engineered crops, use of different seed stocks to sustain a diversity of genetic stocks, or a shift of agriculture to different regions as climate in those areas be- comes more favorable for certain crops or livestock. Other adaptation options might include development of irrigation techniques that use less water, switching from rain- fed to irrigated agriculture where groundwater pools can be sustained, or, in the worst cases—where neither precipitation nor groundwater is adequate—possible cessation of agriculture (California Department of Water Resources, 2008; CCSP, 2008c; Easterling et al., 2007; NRC, 1996a). Short-term responses to climate-induced increases in pests and diseases can involve improved pest management and, in the case of agriculture, application of integrated pest management practices, including development of pest-resistant varieties, use of herbicides and pesticides, and maintaining habitat for natural predators of pests. Over the longer term, technologies such as remote sensing of pest outbreaks may provide a valuable early warning system, and landscape management changes may reduce the potential for spread of pests and diseases or the spread of forest fire (see Table 3.3). There are potential tradeoffs and synergies between agricultural adaptation and adaptations of the water and ecosystem sectors. Increased irrigation in response to drought, for example, competes with natural ecosystem flows and domestic water needs. Pest management must be carefully targeted to prevent elimination of natural predators of pests that reside in natural ecosystems. Synergies can also be developed, such as taking advantage of the diversity of predators in natural ecosystems as a com- ponent of integrated pest management in agriculture and forestry. Water Because of the widespread occurrence of both chronic and periodic water shortages, many potential adaptation strategies have been developed and tested for variations in water availability, from building dams to encouraging conservation by households and other water users (Table 3.4). Although most attention has focused on adaptation options that provide immediate benefit, the severe societal consequences of water scarcity have also spurred several innovative adaptations designed to provide greater long-term benefits, despite substantial initial costs (Table 3.4). Engineering approaches 

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What Are America’s Options for Adaptation? such as dams and water delivery infrastructure, underground (aquifer) storage and recovery systems, and seawater desalination plants have been developed and imple- mented throughout the country in response to historic climate variability. Conserva- tion adaptations, including changes in behavior as well as water-saving technologies, are available in all water-use sectors and are generally the most cost-effective options, especially where synergies between energy and water conservation can be achieved. Though increased flooding as a consequence of climate change has generally re- ceived less attention to date than drought impacts, multiple “standard” engineer- ing approaches are available to reduce short-term flood risk (levees, “hardening” of coastlines), as well as a host of more innovative and environmentally friendly options (see the section “Coastal Area Vulnerabilities” in this chapter; Beatley, 2009). In cities, flooding associated with storms and sea level rise will challenge the capacity of storm drains and water and wastewater treatment facilities to handle increased flows and in extreme conditions may threaten the integrity of water supplies. Short-term adapta- tions can include actions that improve current functions, such as repairing leaks in wastewater and water supply lines and infrastructure improvements to match flow capacities to projected changes. Longer-term adaptation strategies could include development of distributed supply and treatment nodes that are less vulnerable to disruption and require smaller water volumes. The effects of climate change on water quality and temperature have received less attention than effects on water quantity; as a result, both short- and long-term adap- tation strategies will require substantial development and testing to determine their effectiveness. Key temperature-related impacts include threshold conditions in lakes, reservoirs, and rivers for temperature-sensitive fish and other aquatic species, as well as implications for water used for cooling in industrial plants and energy production. Adaptation approaches generally involve changes in reservoir operations to manage downstream temperatures. Water quality adaptations often involve changes in land use, such as development of vegetated buffers to protect waterways from sedimen- tation during floods, or non-point source and point source pollution management systems that can withstand high flows. Little attention has been given to the possibility of modifying water rights laws and practices in the United States in response to changes in water availability, although this has proven necessary and effective in addressing chronic and increasing water shortages in South Africa and Australia (Chapter 5; Carpenter and Biggs, 2009). Water rights allocation is within the purview of the states, and each state has a different ap- proach to managing water supply availability. The institutional complexity of water rights administration and strong incentives for maintaining the legal status quo have 

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A D A P T I N G T O T H E I M PA C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E limited the interest in more flexible management systems. Nevertheless, greater flex- ibility in water management may be an appropriate short- and long-term option in many cases. Water allocations to agriculture, ecosystems, energy, recreation, transportation, and domestic use present both tradeoffs and synergies. Tradeoffs are inevitable when water is insufficient to meet the needs of all users, which is the rule rather than the exception even in the more humid regions of the United States. For example, dams that are built to provide water storage for agriculture and domestic use may nega- tively impact endangered species or the services provided by undammed streams and riparian zones. The recent (and unexpected) drought conditions in the southeastern United States provide an excellent example of the relationships between sectors: a high-cost impact of the drought of the early 2000s in Alabama and Georgia included limits on energy production caused by water supply shortfalls. More positive synergies can occur when intact ecosystems are used to buffer flows and filter contaminants that might otherwise threaten public water supplies. Health Health concerns due to climate change are already evident and require adaptation. Concerns include increased frequency of climate-related extreme events (e.g., heat waves, waterborne diseases, and wildfire smoke) and climate-induced ecological changes (food- and waterborne diseases, and changes in distribution of diseases and their vectors) (Table 2.2, Box 2.2). Proposed adaptation options for the short term focus on altering and augmenting current public health programs and activities to increase their effectiveness in a changing climate (Table 3.5). These include early warn- ing systems, emergency response plans, and public outreach for extreme events. Such programs were designed assuming the current climate would remain essentially con- stant, so they often need adjustment to address increasing risks from extreme weather events. Many early warning systems, for example, were not designed for monitoring and evaluating in a changing climate. Reducing health risks related to climate change over the longer term may require new decision-support tools and changes in other sectors that affect public health, such as urban design to minimize the urban heat island effect through greater use of trees and green spaces. Education and training programs for health care professionals have been identified as important adaptation options to build capacity to address climate- related health needs, including postdisaster mental health needs (Frumkin et al., 2008; Jackson and Shields, 2008). 0

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What Are America’s Options for Adaptation? Climate change and associated extreme events such as floods and hurricanes will change the locations and frequency of disease outbreaks caused by water-, food-, and vector-borne pathogens (Ebi et al., 2008; Frumkin et al., 2008; Jackson and Shields, 2008). In the short term, adaptation can be facilitated by new early warning systems, vaccines, and upgrading of water treatment (both supply and sewage) facilities in di- saster-prone regions, as well as public education campaigns to increase awareness of new disease risks. Health risks can be reduced by managing water supplies to reduce flood risk (see section “Water” in this chapter) and by managing ecosystems to elimi- nate breeding sites of insect and other vectors and to reduce the spread of allergenic plants (see section “Ecosystems”). Pathogen and disease vector surveillance and man- agement programs can provide early detection and enhance our ability to take action to limit risks. Both short- and long-term adaptation will require institutional changes in public health programs, training of health care professionals, and public awareness. For ex- ample, federal leadership for health organizations and agencies could facilitate collab- oration and coordination on development and implementation of new early warning systems and decision-support tools. In addition, health-related climate considerations must become a more integral component of urban planning and ecosystem manage- ment (see sections “Ecosystems” and “Transportation”). In the public health sphere, synergies with other societal goals are generally stronger than tradeoffs, and most actions taken to cope with climate change impacts will im- prove health generally (no-regrets options) by, among others, improving the capacity to meet drinking water and other standards and reducing the likelihood of vector- breeding areas developing near communities during times of rapid ecological change (e.g., tropical deforestation and other land-clearing activities). Tradeoffs are primarily economic and can be minimized by making cost-effective choices in adapting health programs to deal with the additional stresses of climate change. Transportation Substantial engineering options are already available for strengthening and protect- ing transportation facilities such as bridges, ports, roads, and railroads from coastal storms and flooding to achieve short-term and long-term adaptation (Table 3.6) (NRC, 2008c). Infrastructure can be elevated, built stronger, protected by levees or dikes, and/or moved. For example, several of the major Gulf Coast highway bridges de- stroyed by storm surges during Hurricane Katrina have been redesigned and replaced by new bridges elevated well above anticipated future storm surges. Because most 

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Protect and/or relocate newly exposed railroads, highways, and Loss of barrier 0 bridges. islands Switch to alternate shipping methods if waterborne transport cannot use the Intracoastal Waterway or other shipping channels. Impacts on Raise bridge heights and reinforce or relocate harbor infrastructure. infrastructure such as bridges or harbors (RFF-PI) New patterns Existing airport Increase airport runway lengths. of prevailing runways may winds become less efficient; time of travel on long- distance flights and transoceanic shipping may be affected Time of travel on Evaluate effects on logistics; adjust schedules. long-distance flights and transoceanic shipping may be affected More intense Change in Revise hydrologic flood frequency models. precipitation hydrology Revise computational models for storm return frequencies. Change to Revise design standards for hydraulic structures (culverts, drainage hydraulics channels, and highway underpasses).

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Reinforce at-risk structures with particular attention on bridge pier scouring. Review hydraulic structures for deficiencies (culverts and drainage channels). More frequent Provide federal incentives to avoid development in flood plains. flooding Institute better land use planning for floodplain development including prohibition in some instances. Recognize the inherent cost to society of construction in flood-prone areas. Elevate structures where possible; reconstruct to higher standards. Replace vulnerable bridges and other facilities. Harden infrastructure and port facilities. Changes in Shift transportation preferences among air, rail, ship, or highway efficiency of some routing as appropriate. transportation modes; change in safety (or perception of safety) in some transportation modes Warmer Stress on Research new pavement materials and bridge decking materials that temperatures pavements and are more resistant to heat stress and degradation. and heat road decks Establish standards for and use heat-resistant pavements. waves Replace vulnerable pavement, outdated expansion joints, or runways as needed. Revisit Occupational Safety & Health Administration standards for construction workers in light of higher temperatures and other climate stresses. 

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Implement more nighttime construction.  Railway buckling Research on stresses in rails leading to buckling. Implement changes in rail design to accommodate higher temperatures to prevent rail buckling. Great Lakes water Implement changes in shipping vessels or freight weights. level reductions, lower flows in Find alternatives to barges and water transport. major rivers Dredge channels to greater depths. Lower air density Increase airport runway lengths. Longer ice-free Lengthen the shipping season on inland waters and in the Arctic (RFF- periods PI). Extend shipping to previously inaccessible areas. Changes to engine Changes (+/-) to the amount of fuel needed in all forms of motorized fuel efficiency transport. Reevaluate airport runway lengths required for take-off. Cold regions Loss of permafrost Research on pavement design over thawing permafrost. impacts Identify areas and infrastructure vulnerable to thawing permafrost. Revise roads, bridge foundation, runway, and railway design criteria and standards to reflect loss of permafrost. Replace at-risk roads, runways, and railroads. Sea level rise and Produce relative sea level projections under different emissions coastal erosion scenarios for each coastal region. Assess at-risk facilities due to sea level rise.

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Harden seaside and shore-based facilities. Greater coastal More extreme, or Analyze transportation system vulnerabilities in light of storm surge storm strength more frequent, potential. with sea level coastal flooding Revise federal, state, and professional engineering guidelines to rise reflect current and anticipated future climate changes (e.g., precipitation intensity and duration curves) and require their use as a condition for federal investments in infrastructure and incorporate climate. Require climate change assessments in long-range transportation planning in floodplains, and in land use planning in flood-prone coastal areas. Include climate change considerations in planning within metropolitan planning organizations. Identify and take constructive action to provide and protect emergency evacuation routes. Revise FEMA flood maps. Strengthen port facilities to temporarily withstand flooding and surges. Elevate structures and resources. Build or raise seawalls, levees, and dikes for protection. Build surge barriers to protect vulnerable rivers and adjacent infrastructure. Retrofit to strengthen infrastructure (tie down bridge decks and protect piers against scour). Protect critical components (tunnels and electrical systems). Abandon, relocate, or move infrastructure and facilities. 

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NOTE: Most adaptations are local and need to be tailored to local conditions. The suitability of each adaptation option must therefore be  evaluated in the context of local conditions. Where possible, the table refers to assessments and syntheses that consider multiple adaptation options and provide references to specific studies. SOURCE: Reference citations were abbreviated as follows to conserve space: RFF-PI (Neumann and Price, 2009). TABLE 3.7 Energy: Examples of ideas about specific options for facilitating energy sector adaptation to climate change and identification of entities best poised to implement each option. Climate Change Impact Possible Adaptation Action Private sector Federal Local Government NGOs Individuals Average Increased demand for cooling, Increase regional electric power generation capacity temperature rise reduced demand for heating (4-5), after careful consideration of the impacts of resource plans in the United States on overall emissions; plan for and implement enhanced delivery capacity (RFF-PI); take into account changing patterns of demand (summer-winter, north-south) when planning facilities (RFF-PI). R&D to make space cooling and building envelopes more efficient and affordable. Lead by example: government agencies can weatherize buildings and manage energy use to reduce cooling demands (CADGS). More frequent and/or longer Ensure that energy requirements of especially heat waves vulnerable populations are met, especially during heat waves (4-5).

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Improve efficiency of energy use, especially electricity use at home and in commercial buildings (e.g., energy audits) (4-5); develop contingency planning for probable seasonal electricity supply outages. Address vulnerability to heat waves in transmission and delivery systems (4-5). Increases in ambient Improve efficiency of power generation and delivery. temperature reduce efficiencies Provide government incentives to study the issue of and generating capacity of whether decentralized power production reduces risk power plants (RFF-PI). Changes in Annual or seasonal water Develop electric power generation strategies that are precipitation or scarcity in some regions less water-consuming, especially for thermal power water availability plant cooling (e.g., dry cooling and increased cycles of concentration for cooling water) (4-5); develop contingency planning for reduced hydropower generation, especially in regions dependent on snowmelt. Accelerate development of low-energy desalination technologies (4-5); develop higher cycles of concentration in cooling water systems (RFF-PI). Diversify energy sources to provide a more robust portfolio of options. Establish incentives for water conservation in energy systems, including technology development (4-5), and for integrated water and energy conservation planning. Changes in Disruption of energy conversion Harden infrastructures to withstand increased flood, intensity, timing, and generation due to extreme wind, lightning and other storm-related stress (4-5); and location of events, especially major storms, consider relocation of infrastructures to less vulnerable extreme weather can affect oil and gas platforms regions in longer term (see sea level rise) (4-5). events and undersea pipelines (RFF-PI) 

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Increase resilience to energy interruptions and other  threats; expand redundancy in electricity transmission capacity and energy storage capacity. Disruption of energy Assess regional energy-sector vulnerability and transmission and transportation communicate vulnerabilities; advocate responsible due to extreme events contingency planning. Prepare for supply interruptions (e.g., backup systems for emergency facilities, schools, etc.). Sea level rise Risks to infrastructures in Conduct regional analysis of vulnerability of coastal vulnerable coastal areas energy infrastructure to sea level rise; advocate responsible land use planning and contingency planning. NOTE: Most adaptations are local and need to be tailored to local conditions. The suitability of each adaptation option must therefore be evaluated in the context of local conditions. Where possible, the table refers to assessments and syntheses that consider multiple adaptation options and provide references to specific studies. SOURCE: Reference citations were abbreviated as follows to conserve space: 4-5 (CCSP, 2007), RFF-PI (Neumann and Price, 2009), CADGS (California Energy Commission, 2009).

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TABLE 3.8 Oceans and coasts: Examples of ideas about specific options for facilitating ocean and coastal sector adaptation to climate change and identification of entities best poised to implement each option. Climate Change Impact Possible Adaptation Action Federal State Local Government Private Sector NGO/Individuals Accelerated sea Gradual inundation of Site and design all future public works projects to take into level rise and low-lying land; loss of account projections for sea level rise. lake level coastal habitats, Eliminate public subsidies for future development in high hazard changes especially coastal areas along the coast. wetlands; saltwater intrusion into coastal Develop strong, well-planned, shoreline retreat or relocation aquifers and rivers; plans and programs (public infrastructure and private increased shoreline properties), and poststorm redevelopment plans. erosion and loss of Retrofit and protect public infrastructure (stormwater and barrier islands; changes wastewater systems, energy facilities, roads, causeways, ports, in navigational bridges, etc.). conditions Adapt infrastructure and dredging to cope with altered water levels. Use natural shorelines, setbacks, and buffer zones to allow inland migration of shore habitats and barrier islands over time (e.g., dunes and forested buffers mitigate storm damage and erosion). Encourage alternatives to shoreline “armoring” through “living shorelines” (NRC). 

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Develop strategic property acquisition programs to discourage  development in hazardous areas, encourage relocation, and/or allow for inland migration of intertidal habitats. Changes in sea Changes in ecosystem Plan and manage ecosystems to encourage adaptation (see ice structures ecosystem options). Exacerbate coastal Facilitate inland migration and relocation of coastal erosion; severe storms communities. reach coast Increased Increased storm surge Strengthen and implement building codes that make existing intensity/ and flooding; increased buildings more resilient to storm damage along the coast. frequency wind damage; sudden Increase building “free board” above base flood elevation coastal storms coastal/shoreline alterations Identify and improve evacuation routes in low-lying areas (e.g., causeways to coastal islands). Improve storm readiness for harbors and marinas. Establish marine debris reduction strategy. Establish and enforce shoreline setback requirements. Ocean Potential changes in Reduce CO2 emissions (Limiting). acidification ocean productivity and food web linkages; Support ocean observation and long-term monitoring programs. degradation of corals, shellfish, and other Evaluate and manage for ecosystem and infrastructure impacts. shelled organisms; potential impacts on coastal infrastructure (i.e., construction materials)

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Establish monitoring and mapping efforts to measure changes in Changes in Changes in salinity; physical, biological, and chemical conditions along the coast. physical and changes in circulation; chemical changes in seawater Utilize approaches that do not endanger species that are characteristics temperature; changes harvested or endangered. of marine in salinity and systems temperature Ensure flexibility in management plans to account for changes in stratification; changes in species distributions and abundance. estuarine structure and processes (e.g., salt Implement early warning and notification systems for shellfish wedge migration); and beach closures, salinity intrusion in coastal rivers (for changes in ecosystem industry impacts and water resource management, i.e. structure (“invasive,” freshwater intakes), and for unusual events such as hypoxia. nonnative species), species distributions, population genetics, and life history strategies (including migratory routes for protected and commercially important species); increased frequency and extent of harmful algal blooms and coastal hypoxia events Changes in Increased runoff and Improve non-point source pollution prevention programs. precipitation non-point source pollution or Improve stormwater management systems and infrastructure. eutrophication; changes in coastal hydrology Improve early warning systems for beach and shellfish closures. and related ecosystem impacts; increased coastal flooding 

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NOTE: Most adaptations are local and need to be tailored to local conditions. The suitability of each adaptation option must therefore be 0 evaluated in the context of local conditions. Where possible, the table refers to assessments and syntheses that consider multiple adaptation options and provide references to specific studies. SOURCE: Reference citations are abbreviated as follows to conserve space: NRC (NRC, 2007c), Limiting (ACC: Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change [NRC, 2010c]).