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Adapting to the Impacts
of Climate Change
America’s Climate Choices:
Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
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T HE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe-
tences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under
contract number DG133R08CQ0062. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations
expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of
the sponsoring agency or any of its sub agencies.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14591-6 (Book)
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14591-0 (Book)
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14592-3 (PDF)
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14592-9 (PDF)
Library of Congress Control Number: 2010940139
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth
Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the
Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Cover images:
Far left: courtesy of NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team
Middle left: courtesy of U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service
Middle right: courtesy of Fotosearch Stock Photography
Far right: courtesy of University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Photo by Carlye Calvin
Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin-
guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and
research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of
the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to se-
cure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given
to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and educa-
tion. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of fur-
thering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general
policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of
both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing ser-
vices to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council
is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr.
Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.or g
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PANEL ON ADAPTINg TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANgE
KATHARINE L. JACObS* (Chair—through January 3, 2010), University of Arizona,
Tucson
THOMAS J. WILbANKS (Chair), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee
bRuCE P. bAugHMAN, IEM, Inc., Alabaster, Alabama
ROgER N. bEACHy,* Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, St. Louis, Missouri
gEORgES C. bENJAMIN, American Public Health Association, Washington, D.C.
JAMES L. buIzER, Arizona State University, Tempe
F. STuART CHAPIN III, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
W. PETER CHERRy, Science Applications International Corporation, Ann Arbor,
Michigan
bRAxTON DAvIS, South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control,
Charleston
KRISTIE L. EbI, IPCC Technical Support Unit WGII, Stanford, California
JEREMy HARRIS, Sustainable Cities Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii
RObERT W. KATES, Independent Scholar, Bangor, Maine
HOWARD C. KuNREuTHER, University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Business,
Philadelphia
LINDA O. MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
PHILIP MOTE, Oregon State University, Corvallis
ANDREW A. ROSENbERg, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia
HENRy g. SCHWARTz, JR., Jacobs Civil (retired), St. Louis, Missouri
JOEL b. SMITH, Stratus Consulting, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
gARy W. yOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut
NRC Staff
CLAuDIA MENgELT, Study Director
MICHAEL CRAgHAN, Program Officer
KARA LANEy, Associate Program Officer
JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow
LAuREN M. bROWN, Research Associate
AMANDA PuRCELL, Senior Program Assistant
* Asterisks denote members who resigned during the study process.
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Foreword: About America’s
Climate Choices
C
onvened by the National Research Council in response to a request from
Congress (P.L. 110-161), America’s Climate Choices is a suite of five coordinated
activities designed to study the serious and sweeping issues associated with
global climate change, including the science and technology challenges involved, and
to provide advice on the most effective steps and most promising strategies that can
be taken to respond.
The Committee on America’s Climate Choices is responsible for providing overall
direction, coordination, and integration of the America’s Climate Choices suite of activi-
ties and ensuring that these activities provide well-supported, action-oriented, and
useful advice to the nation. The committee convened a Summit on America’s Climate
Choices on March 30–31, 2009, to help frame the study, and provide an opportunity for
high-level participation and input on key issues. The committee is also charged with
writing a final report that builds on four panel reports and other sources to answer the
following four overarching questions:
• What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate
change?
• What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be
pursued to respond to climate change?
• What are the major scientific and technological advances needed to better
understand and respond to climate change?
• What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethi-
cal, intergenerational, etc.) to responding effectively to climate change, and
what can be done to overcome these impediments?
The Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change was charged to
describe, analyze, and assess strategies for reducing the net future human influence
on climate. The panel’s report focuses on actions to reduce domestic greenhouse gas
emissions and other human drivers of climate change, such as changes in land use, but
also considers the international dimensions of climate stabilization.
The Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change was charged to describe,
analyze, and assess actions and strategies to reduce vulnerability, increase adaptive
ii
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FOREWORD
capacity, improve resiliency, and promote successful adaptation to climate change in
different regions, sectors, systems, and populations. This report draws on a wide range
of sources and case studies to identify lessons learned from past experiences, promis-
ing current approaches, and potential new directions.
The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was charged to provide a
concise overview of past, present, and future climate change, including its causes and
its impacts, and to recommend steps to advance our current understanding, including
new observations, research programs, next-generation models, and the physical and
human assets needed to support these and other activities. The panel’s report focuses
on the scientific advances needed both to improve our understanding of the intergrated
human-climate system and to devise more effective responses to climate change.
The Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change
was charged to describe and assess different activities, products, strategies, and tools
for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and ex-
ecute effective, integrated responses. The panel’s report describes the different types
of climate change-related decisions and actions being taken at various levels and in
different sectors and regions; it develops a framework, tools, and practical advice for
ensuring that the best available technical knowledge about climate change is used to
inform these decisions and actions.
America’s Climate Choices builds on an extensive foundation of previous and ongoing
work, including National Research Council reports, assessments from other national
and international organizations, the current scientific literature, climate action plans
by various entities, and other sources. More than a dozen boards and standing com-
mittees of the National Research Council were involved in developing the study, and
many additional groups and individuals provided additional input during the study
process. Outside viewpoints were also obtained via public events and workshops
(including the Summit), invited presentations at committee and panel meetings, and
comments and questions received through the study website, http://americasclimate
choices.org.
Collectively, the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities involves more than 90
volunteers from a range of communities including academia, various levels of govern-
ment, business and industry, other nongovernmental organizations, and the interna-
tional community. Responsibility for the final content of each report rests solely with the
authoring panel and the National Research Council. However, the development of each
report included input from and interactions with members of all five study groups; the
membership of each group is listed in Appendix A.
iii
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Preface
T
his report presents the findings of the Committee on Adapting to the Impacts
of Climate Change, one of four concurrent panel efforts within the America’s
Climate Choices committee study. It was our assignment to identify the opportu-
nities and challenges associated with adaptation, to identify and evaluate the avail-
able options and lessons learned within the United States and elsewhere, and to make
recommendations regarding U.S. adaptation efforts.
Adapting to climate change is a relatively new topic for U.S. citizens, who have only
recently become fully aware of the implications of changes in the Earth system that
will result from having more heat trapped in the oceans and the atmosphere. In recent
years, some states, cities, and sectors have begun to make plans to adapt to current
and anticipated changes in the climate system. Some “early adopters” have focused
primarily on limiting greenhouse gases (GHGs). Others, however, are also addressing
ways to limit impacts of the anticipated changes, recognizing that regardless of efforts
to limit emissions, adaptation is required now and will become even more important
in the coming decades. Although planning for adaptation is still in its infancy, there is
a groundswell of interest in moving forward quickly to avoid future impacts of climate
change.
Advising the nation on how to prepare for the impacts of climate change is especially
daunting in a country with so much geographic and economic diversity and so many
private- and public-sector decision makers. The challenges associated with multiple
regions, sectors, scales, and time frames have made this a difficult assignment, and in
the end, our panel has concluded that is not possible to provide a list of actions to be
taken now to adapt in each region and sector. As has been noted by many researchers
and practitioners, adaptation is fundamentally implemented at local and regional lev-
els and needs to consider the socioeconomic and political factors. Priorities regarding
“what to do” need to be set in decision contexts relative to other important priorities
faced by society and resource managers. Vulnerability associated with climate change
is based on underlying social and ecological stresses, and these stresses tend to vary
dramatically from place to place. Degrees of vulnerability are not directly connected
to wealth, but certainly a lack of financial capacity is highly correlated with a reduced
number of options for adaptation. In this report, our panel emphasizes that adaptation
decisions need to be made in the context of promoting long-term sustainability ob-
ix
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P R E FA C E
jectives, including social, economic, and ecological welfare rather than focusing only
on the short-term outcomes that may be more politically and economically expedient.
Despite this place-based framework, our panel shares the perspective that adaptation
needs to be addressed in a coordinated way and that there is a need to involve the
federal government in this coordination. Furthermore, there is a need to acknowledge
the implications of our adaptation and GHG-reduction decisions on national security
and to be prepared for the potential impacts of decisions taken by other countries.
This assignment has been both challenging and exhilarating for other reasons as well.
Although dozens of new publications on adaptation have emerged during the year
that we have worked on this effort, on balance there is very little published literature
about the effectiveness of alternative approaches to adaptation to impacts of climate
change, and in particular very few estimates of cost that are useful in the context of
the wide variety of U.S. decision processes. The exhilarating part of this effort has been
the opportunity to meld a variety of kinds of knowledge into a truly integrated docu-
ment that benefits from a balance between social and physical science and practical
experience.
We were aided in our efforts by the support of truly exceptional National Research
Council staff. Our project director, Claudia Mengelt, did a heroic job at maintaining for-
ward momentum and managing this intensive effort. She was unceasingly energetic,
professional, and optimistic, in spite of relatively severe time limitations and a large
committee of talented but very independent-minded members. Claudia was ably as-
sisted in her work by Amanda Purcell, who impeccably handled the logistics; Michael
Craghan, who developed the matrix format and did much of the citation develop-
ment; and Kara Laney, who assisted with our research in multiple ways. We also want
to acknowledge the highly professional stewardship provided by the study director,
Ian Kraucunas, and the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) board di-
rector, Chris Elfring, who engaged often with our committee to provide sound advice,
particularly about coordination with the other committee and panel findings. We
depended heavily on the U.S. Global Change Research Program report The Impacts of
Climate Change on the United States, and are grateful to those who helped to produce
it and shared their findings with us firsthand. The Impacts report informed our conclu-
sions about what climate impacts we need to be prepared for. Many international and
national climate and adaptation experts shared their expertise with us in person, by
phone, and through documents they provided. Their input was invaluable and used
liberally in the case studies and findings of this report.
Our committee is grateful for the opportunity to work together at this important mo-
ment in history, when climate change science and policy are intersecting for the first
x
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Preface
time as part of a major national agenda. We are humbled by the size of this task and
the magnitude of the known and unknown challenges that lie ahead, especially on the
ambitious time schedule for the America’s Climate Choices reports.
Katharine Jacobs, Chair through January 3, 2010, and Tom Wilbanks, Chair
Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
xi
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Acknowledgments
T
his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved
by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review
is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making
its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institu-
tional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The
review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of
the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participa-
tion in the review of this report:
NEIL ADgER, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, U.K.
DONALD F. bOESCH, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science,
Cambridge
IAN buRTON, Meteorological Service of Canada, Ontario
JONATHAN CANNON, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
MARgARET DAvIDSON, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
Charleston, South Carolina
ALExANDER H. FLAx, Consultant, Potomac, Maryland
AMy FRAENKEL, UNEP Regional Office for North America, Washington, D.C.
gERALD E. gALLOWAy, University of Maryland, College Park
JAMES E. gERINgER, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Cheyenne, Wyoming
gEORgE M. HORNbERgER, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee
PETER KAREIvA, The Nature Conservancy, Seattle, Washington
JIM LOPEz, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Washington, D.C.
RICHARD H. MOSS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington, D.C.
DAvID J. NASH, Dave Nash & Associates, LLC, Birmingham, Alabama
CHARLES PHELPS, University of Rochester, Gualala, California
KEITH PITTS, Marrone Organic Innovations, Davis, California
PEggy M. SHEPARD, WE ACT for Environmental Justice, New York, New York
b. L. TuRNER II, Arizona State University, Tempe
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and
suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations
nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report
was overseen by Robert A. Frosch (Harvard University) and Susan Hanson (Clark Uni-
xiii
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
versity) appointed by the Report Review Committee and the Division on Earth and Life
Studies, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination
of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all
review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this
report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The panel would like to thank in particular the following for sharing their insights on
this topic as presenters and informal reviewers and for writing contributions: Thomas
Armstrong, Peter Schultz, Joel Scheraga, Susan Solomon, Jerry Melillo, Brad Udall,
Dixon Butler, Jean Fruci, Kris Sarri, Susanne Moser, Amanda Staudt, Saleemul Huq, Mark
Howden, Chris West, Virginia Burkett, Michael Savonis, Matthias Ruth, Adam Freed, Tony
Brunello, Mark Way, Andrew Castaldi, Hal Mooney, Lisa Graumlich, Peter Culp, Jennifer
Pitt, Nancy Grimm, Mikaela Engert, Mitzi Stults, Jim Jones, and John Reilly.
xi
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Acknowledgments
Institutional oversight for this project was provided by:
bOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. buSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park
ROSINA M. bIERbAuM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RICHARD CARbONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
WALTER F. DAbbERDT, Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia
gREg S. FORbES, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton,
New Jersey
ARTHuR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
RAyMOND T. PIERREHuMbERT, University of Chicago, Illinois
KIMbERLy PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW, University of Oklahoma, Norman
THOMAS H. vONDER HAAR, Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins
xubIN zENg, University of Arizona, Tucson
Ex Officio Members
gERALD A. MEEHL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
x
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRINg, Director
LAuRIE gELLER, Senior Program Officer
IAN KRAuCuNAS, Senior Program Officer
EDWARD DuNLEA, Senior Program Officer
MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Officer
TOby WARDEN, Program Officer
MAggIE WALSER, Associate Program Officer
KATIE WELLER, Associate Program Officer
JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow
RITA gASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
LAuREN M. bROWN, Research Associate
ROb gREENWAy, Program Associate
SHELLy FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA PuRCELL, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAyNE, Senior Program Assistant
JANEISE STuRDIvANT, Program Assistant
SHubHA bANSKOTA, Financial Associate
xi
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Contents
SUMMARY 1
1 INTRODUCTION 17
Adaptation: Key Questions, Challenges, and Opportunities, 17
Scope and Purpose of the Report, 22
Principles to Guide Climate Change Adaptation, 23
Organization of the Report, 24
2 VULNERABILITIES AND IMPACTS 29
Projected U.S. Climate Changes That Could Require Adaptive Responses, 30
Determining Vulnerabilities to Projected Climate Changes, 35
How Changing Climate Conditions and Vulnerabilities Impact Different U.S.
Sectors , 39
Comparative Metrics of Impacts and Vulnerabilities, 50
Major Scientific Challenges in Assessing Climate Change Impacts and
Vulnerabilities and Their Implications for Adaptation, 54
Adaptation and Uncertainty, 58
Conclusions, 59
3 WHAT ARE AMERICA’S OPTIONS FOR ADAPTATION? 61
Sectoral Adaptations to Climate Change, 65
Lessons from Integrated Climate Change Adaptation Programs, 76
Conclusions, 87
4 MANAGING THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE: A STRATEGY FOR ADAPTATION 121
The Adaptation Challenge, 121
Managing the Risk, 124
Developing an Effective Adaptation Strategy, 130
Developing an Adaptation Plan, 134
Impediments to Implementing Adaptation Plans and Policies, 145
Limits to Adaptation, 152
Research and Development in Support of Adaptation, 153
Conclusions, 156
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CONTENTS
5 LINKING ADAPTATION EFFORTS ACROSS THE NATION 159
Adaptive Capacity, 160
Roles of Governmental and Other Institutions, 162
The Need for a Coordinated National Approach to Climate Change
Adaptation, 179
Conclusions, 181
6 RATIONALE AND MECHANISMS FOR GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT IN CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION 185
Climate Change Impacts in an International Context, 186
Rationale for U.S. Engagement in Adapting to Climate Change at the
Global Scale, 188
Opportunities for U.S. Engagement in Global Adaptation Activities, 193
Conclusions, 199
7 MAJOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES NEEDED TO PROMOTE
EFFECTIVE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 203
Science and Technology Advances to Support Adaptation Analysis and
Assessment, 204
Science and Technology Advances for Adaptation Option Identification and
Development, 206
Science and Technology Advances for Adaptation Management and
Implementation, 211
Alternative Approaches for Meeting Science and Technology Needs for
Climate Change Adaptation, 214
Conclusions, 216
8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 219
Overcoming Adaptation Challenges and Impediments Requires a
Comprehensive Strategy, 221
A National Program Should Be Developed to Implement the National
Adaptation Strategy, 225
Adaptation Should Be Supported Across the Nation by the Development of
New Adaptation Science and Technology, 228
Governments at All Levels, the Private Sector, and Nongovernmental
Organizations Should Initiate Adaptation Planning and Implementation, 229
The United States Should Promote Adaptation in an International Context, 230
Early Opportunities for Success, 231
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Contents
References 253
Appendixes
A America’s Climate Choices: Membership Lists 251
B Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change: Statement of Task 255
C Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change: Biographical Sketches 257
D Explanation of the Rationale for Reasons of Concern 267
E Acronyms and Initialisms 271
xix
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