Patricia Koshel and Kathleen McAllister Rapporteurs

Science and Technology for Sustainability Program

Policy and Global Affairs



Washington, D.C.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
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S u S tainability S cience and t echnology Expanding BiofuEl production and thE tranSition to advancEd BiofuElS L essons s ustainabi L ity u pper m idwest for from the Summary of a WorkShop Patricia Koshel and Kathleen McAllister Rapporteurs Science and Technology for Sustainability Program Policy and Global Affairs THE naTional acadEmiEs prEss Washington, d.c. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by funding from the Energy Foundation and the George and Cynthia Mitchell Endowment for Sustainability Science. Any opinions, findings, conclu - sions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14714-9 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14714-X Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examina - tion of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Na - tional Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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STEERING COMMITTEE ON EXPANDING BIOFUEL PRODUCTION: SUSTAINABILITY AND THE TRANSITION TO ADVANCED BIOFUELS Patrick Atkins, Aluminum Company of America (ALCOA) John Carberry (Committee Chair), Former Director, Environmental Technology, DuPont Peter Ciborowski, Research Scientist, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency Elisabeth Graffy, Economist, U.S. Geological Survey, Office of the Associate Director for Geography Nathanael Greene, Senior Policy Analyst, Natural Resources Defense Council Jason Hill, Research Associate, University of Minnesota Tracey Holloway, Director, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, Assistant Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison Marcia Patton-Mallory, Bioenergy and Climate Change Specialist, U.S. Forest Service Bruce Rodan, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Gary Radloff, Director of Policy and Strategic Communications, Wisconsin Department of Agriculture Trade and Consumer Protection 

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Preface and Acknowledgments To follow up on discussions held by the Roundtable on Science and Technol- ogy for Sustainability, the Science and Technology for Sustainability Program appointed a steering committee of subject matter experts to plan a workshop that would explore further the implications for sustainability of expanding biofuel production. Initial discussions suggested that many local and regional impacts associated with expanding biofuels exist in the U.S. Upper Midwest, so the workshop focused specifically on this region. In June 2009 the steering committee convened the workshop with the specific purpose of developing a better understanding of the lessons that can be learned from the experience with producing corn-based ethanol and the likely environ- mental, economic, social, and energy security impacts of advanced biofuels. The workshop offered an opportunity for dialogue between researchers and policy makers on the sustainability impacts of expanding biofuel production at state and regional levels. The workshop also sought to identify policy objectives and chal - lenges facing state officials related to biofuels, provide examples of research that may be useful to state decision-makers, and evaluate various tools and indicators of possible use to state policy makers in assessing the likely sustainability impacts and tradeoffs of their choices. This document has been prepared by the workshop rapporteurs as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop. The statements made in this volume are those of the rapporteurs and do not necessarily represent positions of the workshop participants as a whole, the steering committee, the Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability, or the National Academies. This workshop summary is the result of substantial effort and collaboration among several organizations and individuals. We wish to extend a sincere thanks ii

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iii PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS to each member of the steering committee for his/her contributions in scoping, developing, and carrying out this project. The project would not have been possible without the financial support of its external sponsor, the Energy Foundation. It also benefitted from internal sup - port provided by the George and Cynthia Mitchell Endowment for Sustainability Science. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures ap- proved by the National Academies’ Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for quality and objectivity. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Richard Cruse, Iowa State University; Gregory Nemet, University of Wisconsin; Gary Radloff, Wisconsin Department of Agriculture; and Lisa Shames, U.S. Government Accountability Office. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author(s) and the institution. Patricia Koshel and Kathleen McAllister Rapporteurs

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Contents I Introduction and Overview 1 II Policies Driving the Expansion of Biofuel Production 5 III Next-Generation Technologies and Feedstocks 11 IV Dimensions of Sustainability and Expanding Biofuel Production 15 V Going Forward 29 APPENDIXES A Workshop Agenda 39 B Workshop Participants 45 C Description of Agency Activities on Biofuels and Sustainability 49 D Brief Survey of State Biofuel Policies in the Upper Midwest 101 E Assessing the Sustainability of Biofuels: Metrics, Models, and Tools for Evaluating the Impact of Biofuels 117 F Selected Bibliography 141 G Biographical Information: Workshop Participants 147 H The Science and Technology for Sustainability Roundtable and Roster of Members 165 ix

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