ASSESSMENT OF FUEL ECONOMY TECHNOLOGIES FOR LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES

Committee on the Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page R1
ASSESSMENT OF FUEL ECONOMY TECHNOLOGIES FOR LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES Committee on the Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

OCR for page R1
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. DTNH22-07-H-00155 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Transportation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recom - mendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15607-3 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15607-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2011927639 Copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lock - box 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

OCR for page R1
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies deter- mined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the govern - ment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

OCR for page R1

OCR for page R1
COMMITTEE ON THE ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY TREVOR O. JONES, NAE,1 ElectroSonics Medical, Cleveland, Ohio, Chair THOMAS W. ASMUS, NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Oakland, Michigan RODICA BARANESCU, NAE, NAVISTAR, Warrenville, Illinois JAY BARON, Center for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor, Michigan DAVID FRIEDMAN, Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C. DAVID GREENE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee LINOS JACOVIDES, NAE, Delphi Research Laboratory (retired), Grosse Pointe Farms, Michigan JOHN H. JOHNSON, Michigan Technological University, Houghton JOHN G. KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge ROGER B. KRIEGER, University of Wisconsin-Madison GARY W. ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan ROBERT F. SAWYER, NAE, University of California, Berkeley Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Study Director ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems 1 NAE, National Academy of Engineering. v

OCR for page R1
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ANDREW BROWN, JR., Chair, NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan RAKESH AGRAWAL, NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana WILLIAM BANHOLZER, NAE, The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta MICHAEL CORRADINI, NAE, University of Wisconsin-Madison PAUL DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station WILLIAM FRIEND, NAE, Bechtel Group, Inc., McLean, Virginia SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Independent Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California ROBERT HUGGETT, Independent Consultant, Seaford, Virginia DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis DANIEL NOCERA, NAS,2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Stanford, California BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, DaimlerChrysler (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas MARK THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York City Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director DANA CAINES, Financial Associate ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer JONNA HAMILTON, Program Officer K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer and Associate Board Director LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant 1 National Academy of Engineering. 2National Academy of Sciences. vi

OCR for page R1
DEDICATION This report is dedicated to Dr. Patrick Flynn, a very active and contributing committee member and a member of the National Academy of Engineering, who passed away on August 21, 2008, while this report was being prepared. vii

OCR for page R1

OCR for page R1
Acknowledgments As a result of the considerable time and effort contributed Environmental Analysis, Inc.; Ricardo, Inc.; and IBIS, Inc. by the members of the Committee on the Assessment of Tech- The committee also thanks Christopher Baillie, FEV, Inc., nologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy, an unpaid consultant to the committee, for his many efforts, whose biographies are presented in Appendix A, this report dedication, and hard work. identifies and estimates the effectiveness of technologies for This report has been reviewed in draft form by indi- improving fuel economy in light-duty vehicles, and the re- viduals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical lated costs. The committee’s statement of task (Appendix B) expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the clearly presented substantial challenges, which the committee Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this confronted with fair and honest discussion supported with independent review is to provide candid and critical com- data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administra- ments that will assist the institution in making its published tion (NHTSA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets and the DOT-Volpe Research Laboratory. I appreciate the institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and respon- members’ efforts, especially those who chaired the subgroups siveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft and led the compilation of the various chapters. manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the The data and conclusions presented in the report have deliberative process. benefited from a substantial amount of information provided We wish to thank the following individuals for their by global automobile manufacturers, suppliers, and others review of this report: in the regulatory communities and in non-governmental organizations. Appendix C lists the presentations provided Tom Austin, Sierra Research Corporation, to the committee. Members of the committee also visited Paul Blumberg, Consultant, industry organizations in North America, Europe, and Japan. Andrew Brown, Delphi Corporation, In addition, the National Research Council contracted with Wynn Bussmann, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), outside organizations to develop and evaluate a number of Laurence Caretto, California State University, technological opportunities. Coralie Cooper, NESCAUM, The committee greatly appreciates and thanks the dedi- James Fay, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, cated and committed staff of the National Research Council Larry Howell, Consultant, (NRC), and specifically the Board on Energy and Envi- David Japikse, Concepts NREC, ronmental Systems (BEES) under the direction of James Orron Kee, National Highway Traffic Safety Administra- Zucchetto (director of BEES). The committee particularly tion (retired), wishes to recognize the outstanding leadership of K. John Steven Plotkin, Argonne National Laboratory, Holmes, study director, and his staff. Thanks and recogni- Priyaranjan Prasad, Prasad Consulting, and tion are due to the following BEES staff: Alan Crane, senior Lee Schipper, Berkeley Transportation Center. program officer; Madeline Woodruff, senior program officer; LaNita Jones, administrative coordinator; Jonathan Yanger, Although the reviewers listed above have provided many senior program assistant; and Aaron Greco, Mirzayan Policy constructive comments and suggestions, they were not Fellow, as well as consultants K.G. Duleep of Energy and asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor ix

OCR for page R1
x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS did they see the final draft of the report before its release. that all review comments were carefully considered. Respon- The review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth M. sibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with Drake, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (retired), and the authoring committee and the institution. Dale Stein, Michigan Technological University (retired). Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making Trevor O. Jones, Chair certain that an independent examination of this report was Committee on the Assessment of Technologies carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy

OCR for page R1
Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 9 Current Policy Context and Motivation, 9 Statement of Task, 10 Contents of This Report, 10 References, 11 2 FUNDAMENTALS OF FUEL CONSUMPTION 12 Introduction, 12 Fuel Consumption and Fuel Economy, 12 Engines, 14 Fuels, 16 Fuel Economy Testing and Regulations, 17 Customer Expectations, 18 Tractive Force and Tractive Energy, 19 Detailed Vehicle Simulation, 21 Findings and Recommendations, 22 References, 23 3 COST ESTIMATION 24 Introduction, 24 Premises, 25 Components of Cost, 26 Factors Affecting Costs over Time and Across Manufacturers, 27 Methods of Estimating Costs, 28 Retail Price Equivalent Markup Factors, 32 Findings, 36 References, 36 4 SPARK-IGNITION GASOLINE ENGINES 38 Introduction, 38 SI Engine Efficiency Fundamentals, 38 Thermodynamic Factors, 40 Valve-Event Modulation of Gas-Exchange Processes, 40 Gasoline Direct Injection, 48 Downsized Engines with Turbocharging, 49 Engine Friction Reduction Efforts, 52 Engine Heat Management, 53 xi

OCR for page R1
xii CONTENTS Homogeneous-Charge Compression Ignition, 54 Combustion Restart, 54 Ethanol Direct Injection, 54 Findings, 55 Bibliography, 56 Annex, 58 5 COMPRESSION-IGNITION DIESEL ENGINES 61 Introduction, 61 Technologies Affecting Fuel Consumption, 62 Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential, 68 Technology Readiness/Sequencing, 72 Technology Cost Estimates, 73 Findings, 80 References, 82 Annex, 83 6 HYBRID POWER TRAINS 84 Introduction, 84 Hybrid Power Train Systems, 84 Battery Technology, 88 Power Electronics, 91 Rotating Electrical Machines and Controllers, 91 Cost Estimates, 93 Fuel Consumption Benefits of Hybrid Architectures, 94 Fuel Cell Vehicles, 95 Findings, 95 References, 96 Annex, 97 7 NON-ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES 99 Introduction, 99 Non-Engine Technologies Considered in This Study, 99 Fuel Consumption Benefits of Non-Engine Technologies, 106 Timing Considerations for Introducing New Technologies, 109 Costs of Non-Engine Technologies, 111 Summary, 114 Findings, 116 References, 116 8 MODELING IMPROVEMENTS IN VEHICLE FUEL CONSUMPTION 118 Introduction, 118 Challenges in Modeling Vehicle Fuel Consumption, 119 Methodology of the 2002 National Research Council Report, 119 Modeling Using Partial Discrete Approximation Method, 123 Modeling Using Full System Simulation, 131 An Analysis of Synergistic Effects Among Technologies Using Full System Simulation, 133 Findings, 135 References, 136 9 APPLICATION OF VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES TO VEHICLE CLASSES 138 Introduction, 138 Developing Baseline Vehicle Classes, 138 Estimation of Fuel Consumption Benefits, 140 Applicability of Technologies to Vehicle Classes, 141

OCR for page R1
xiii CONTENTS Estimating Incremental Costs Associated with Technology Evolution, 141 Assessing Potential Technology Sequencing Paths, 144 Improvements to Modeling of Multiple Fuel Economy Technologies, 153 Findings and Recommendation, 155 Bibliography, 156 APPENDIXES A Committee Biographies 159 B Statement of Task 163 C List of Presentations at Public Committee Meetings 165 D Select Acronyms 167 E Comparison of Fuel Consumption and Fuel Economy 169 F Review of Estimate of Retail Price Equivalent Markup Factors 171 G Compression-Ignition Engine Replacement for Full-Size Pickup/SUV 177 H Other NRC Assessments of Benefits, Costs, and Readiness of Fuel Economy Technologies 181 I Results of Other Major Studies 189 J Probabilities in Estimations of Fuel Consumption Benefits and Costs 208 K Model Description and Results for the EEA-ICF Model 210

OCR for page R1