NUCLEAR FORENSICS
A CAPABILITY AT RISK
(Abbreviated Version)
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by contract number DE-AM01-04PI4513, DE-AT01-08NA28455.A000, TO#24 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Committee on Nuclear Forensics
ALBERT CARNESALE,
University of California, Los Angeles,
Chair
MARVIN L. ADAMS,
Texas A&M University, College Station
R. STEPHEN BERRY,
University of Chicago (retired), Illinois
SUE B. CLARK,
Washington State University, Pullman
JAY C. DAVIS,
Hertz Foundation, Livermore, California
JOHN A. GORDON,
U.S. Air Force (retired), Alexandria, Virginia
DARLEANE C. HOFFMAN,
University of California (retired), Oakland
MICHAEL O. LARSON,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (retired), California
MILTON LEVENSON,
Bechtel International (retired), Menlo Park, California
RANDALL S. MURCH,
Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, Alexandria
DANIEL B. PONEMAN,*
The Scowcroft Group, Washington, DC
JERRY B. WILHELMY,
Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired), Honolulu, Hawaii
STAFF
MICAH D. LOWENTHAL, Study Director
TONI GREENLEAF, Administrative and Financial Associate
SHAUNTEÉ WHETSTONE, Senior Program Assistant
Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board
RICHARD A. MESERVE,
Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, DC,
Chair
BARBARA J. MCNEIL,
Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts,
Vice Chair
JOONHONG AHN,
University of California, Berkeley
JOHN S. APPLEGATE,
Indiana University School of Law, Bloomington
MICHAEL L. CORRADINI,
University of Wisconsin-Madison
PATRICIA J. CULLIGAN,
Columbia University, New York City, New York
SARAH C. DARBY,
Oxford University, United Kingdom
JAY C. DAVIS,
Hertz Foundation, Livermore, California
ROBERT C. DYNES,
University of California, San Diego
JOE GRAY,
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, California
DAVID G. HOEL,
Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston
HEDVIG HRICAK,
Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York City, New York
THOMAS H. ISAACS,
Stanford University, Palo Alto, California
ANNIE B. KERSTING,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
FRED A. METTLER, JR.,
New Mexico VA Health Care System, Albuquerque
BORIS F. MYASOEDOV,
Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
RICHARD J. VETTER,
Mayo Clinic (retired), Rochester, Minnesota
RAYMOND G. WYMER,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired), Oak Ridge, Tennessee
Staff
KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Director
MICAH D. LOWENTHAL, Program Director
SARAH CASE, Program Officer
TONI GREENLEAF, Administrative and Financial Associate
LAURA D. LLANOS, Administrative and Financial Associate
SHAUNTEÉ WHETSTONE, Senior Program Assistant
ERIN WINGO, Senior Program Assistant
JAMES YATES, JR., Office Assistant
Preface to the Abbreviated Version
This is an abbreviated version of the National Academies' report on sustaining and improving the nation's nuclear forensics capabilities, entitled, Nuclear Forensics: A Capability at Risk (U). The full version of that report, which is classified, was issued in January 2010.
The Committee on Nuclear Forensics has been informed about progress made since that time on several matters related directly to the committee’s findings and recommendations. There has been a modest increase in funding for nuclear forensics. As required by the 2010 Defense Authorization Act, the President has issued a 5-year strategic plan for work in this area. His National Security Staff has informed the committee staff that an interagency policy committee will soon be initiated to develop strategic requirements for nuclear forensics. The Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee has issued guidelines on which measurements would be most valuable for post-detonation nuclear forensics. Guidance has been issued on which nuclear forensics matters may be discussed with non-U.S. citizens. The interagency apparatus has begun work on reconciling security classification guidance among the responsible agencies. The National Level Exercise 2010, held in May, for the first time incorporated attribution in a nuclear detonation exercise. A nuclear forensics personnel pipeline program is funding fellowships for graduate students and supporting professors in a few mission-relevant fields, and has created a nuclear forensics summer school. Other actions have been taken but remain beyond the bounds of this abbreviated report for national security reasons.
These all appear to be positive developments, although the committee has not had a chance to review them. Much work remains to be done on matters raised by the committee. It appears that these issues are being recognized by the responsible federal agencies and the White House, and steps are being taken to address them.
Albert Carnesale, Chair
Committee on Nuclear Forensics
Preface
Leaders of the United States for more than a decade have believed that nuclear terrorism is among the gravest threats to our nation. Beyond the terrible loss of life, which in itself is difficult to appreciate fully, the successful detonation of one or more nuclear explosives in a U.S. city and the potential for more detonations could transform our nation into a national security state, focused on common defense to the detriment of the justice, general welfare, and blessings of liberty envisioned by our nation's founders. The nation's responses to the attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, hint at this danger. America has proven resilient, but a nuclear detonation would cause far more death and destruction than were seen on 9/11.
Our nation's ability to conduct forensic analyses of nuclear materials, nuclear explosions, and debris from radiological dispersion devices can contribute substantially to deterring, limiting, and responding to nuclear terrorism—complementing and enhancing efforts to secure nuclear materials and detect theft, diversion, and clandestine production. The capability to identify or exclude possible origins of nuclear material could, most importantly, enhance U.S. diplomatic and investigative efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism.
The crucial importance of nuclear forensics invites questions such as this: What capabilities are embodied in the current U.S. nuclear forensics program, and how might they best be sustained and improved? These basic but highly important matters are addressed in this report by the National Academies Committee on Nuclear Forensics.
Nuclear materials and weapons have, since their discovery, required special attention. The development of nuclear forensic analyses took place largely in secret at a few laboratories. The nature of the work dictates that some of it will have to remain connected to but separate from other forensic science research, development, and practice. For that reason, the nuclear forensics program must stand on its own.
The committee was aided in its efforts by knowledgeable, skilled, and accommodating members of the National Research Council staff. In particular, Micah Lowenthal, the study director, was invaluable in organizing and marshalling the effort, as well as for his substantive contributions.
He and we received considerable assistance from Toni Greenleaf and Shaunteé Whetstone on the Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board staff and from the program security staff of the National Academies. To these individuals, and to others within and outside of government who provided information, perspectives, and the benefits of their experience and wisdom, we are sincerely grateful.
Albert Carnesale, Chair
Committee on Nuclear Forensics
Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Donald Barr, Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Linton A. Brooks, National Nuclear Security Administration (retired)
Charles Craft, Sandia National Laboratories
John Foster, GKN Aerospace Transparency Systems, Inc.
Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, LEG Consulting, Inc.
Stanley G. Prussin, University of California (emeritus)
Wayne Shotts, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (retired)
In addition, Carol Burns (Los Alamos National Laboratory), Nathan Wimer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), and staff in the National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center each conducted fact checks on excerpts of the draft report that contained no findings or recommendations. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report's conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Cherry Murray of Harvard University and Richard A. Meserve of the Carnegie Institution for Science. Appointed by the Report Review Committee and the Division on Earth and Life Studies, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Research Council.